Game 115, Padres at Mariners – Another Path Forward?
Matt Wisler/Wade Le Blanc vs. Dinelson Lamet, 7:10pm
A pair of former Padres face the Padres tonight as the M’s return home from absolute destruction at the hands of the Houston Astros. We’ve been talking about it for years now, but the Astros have essentially separated themselves from the rest of the division and league, and what’s worse, they keep restocking their talent. Sure, they gave up prospects to acquire Aaron Sanchez and Zack Greinke. Sure, they may or may not re-sign Gerrit Cole. But with the emergence of Yordan Alvarez (whose reign of terror is unlike any I’ve seen from a young rookie since, what, Pujols?), they now have a core of three homegrown potential superstars who will be in their mid-late 20s right in the M’s self-identified contention window. This is what has me almost continuously pessimistic.
I caught the latest episode of M’s podcast The Wheelhouse today; this episode was hosted by the great Colin O’Keefe. Almost immediately, Colin asked Jerry Dipoto how to emulate the Astros? How do *we* get a club that’s essentially the divisional favorite year in and year out? Dipoto’s answer was that they planned to build through young players, and that they’d start to chip away at the Astros’ advantage as soon as next year. Candidly, he said they simply weren’t as talented, which is both painfully obvious to observers, and also kind of refreshing to hear from the GM.
Given the emergence of Alvarez, though, the M’s could just as easily see the Astros *widen* the gap next year. I wrote back in March that the M’s needed to identify who their stars were going to be, and to start, they needed to find one player who could put up a 6-8 WAR season. The Astros have several such players, and the A’s have a couple, and the Angels have one who does this in his sleep. The M’s needed to find just one player, and then build around that. Ideally, though I didn’t stress this enough in that piece, that this player should do so convincingly. Jarred Kelenic’s had a great season – one that gives M’s fans hope about a 6-8 WAR ceiling or even consistent 6-8 WAR seasons, but as a 20 year old who’s struggling a bit right now, I don’t know that we can just plug him in for MVP votes in 2020-2021. It could happen! That would be very helpful, but counting on it is madness. Daniel Vogelbach started off so strong that he looked like he would scoff in the face of positional adjustments and slug his way to it. But as the year’s gone on, I fear he may be capped around 3-4 in a good year. The walk rate boosts his floor, but I don’t think he can be a superstar with his current tool set. Mitch Haniger *could*, but after a lost season and some regression, it seems tough to imagine he’ll just put it all together at age 30 (he’ll be 30 in 2021). Marco Gonzales has backed up in just about every conceivable measure, and just didn’t quite have the skillset to get to 6-8 WAR anyway. Judging from the condition I set out, this season’s been a failure.
But maybe I was going about this the wrong way. Another thing I wrote about in that same piece was the importance of getting better-than-league-average performance from JP Crawford. Forget a 6-8 WAR ceiling. Just give me solid defense at SS and a Segura-esque 110 wRC+ or DRC+. Above-average bat and glove is a great player, even if it’s not quite Correa/Bregman good. In THIS case, the M’s and Crawford clearly, inarguably hit the mark. I worry about Crawford’s streakiness at the plate and about the raw hitting ability, but his walk rate ameliorates those worries. I don’t think he’s Xander Bogaerts, but he doesn’t need to be. He could settle in and become a 3-5 WAR SS for years and years, and that’s a player a team can win with. But doesn’t a winning team need more?
In general, yes. The great teams we see today in Houston and Los Angeles, or like the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox, have big-time stars and have filled in around them admirably. The Cubs had Kris Bryant, the Sox had Mookie Betts, the Yankees had Aaron Judge, the Indians had Jose Ramirez or Corey Kluber or Francisco Lindor. Those great players take the pressure off of a GM, because you don’t need big-time production from the rest of the line-up or rotation. You can get more limited players who still add value. Your young players can develop in an environment where they don’t have to carry a line-up/staff, and free agents can fill in known needs in the bullpen or defense, etc. Stars allow you to overcome down years or injuries from contributing players (though of course their presence increases risk, as if THEY go down, you could be screwed). But of course, this isn’t the only way to win. It’s just a really common one.
A good team needs 45 WAR or more to really contend. By Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, that’d put you at about 92-93 wins; by Baseball Prospectus’ WARP measure, you’d be in the mid 90s. The best teams in recent memories got 30 or so from position players and another 20-25 from pitchers, but of course you can mix and match based on the talent you have. Pitching and defense win championships except when offense slugs its way to the crown. Anyway, what would a team without any big stars look like? Can the math work out to get you to 45-50 WAR without any one player amassing 6-8? Sure. If you’d like to see how this could work operationally, look at the Minnesota Twins.
Depending on the WAR framework you use, they may have an outlier. Baseball Prospectus sees Jorge Polanco as a *bit* to good for this analogy to really work though he’s in the 4s currently. Fangraphs sees SP Jose Berrios as the guy who doesn’t belong, while BP thinks he and the rest of the Twins pitchers have been decidedly unimpressive. But the Twins are still 4 games up in the Central, and for our purposes, you could knock a win or two off and still have a good, young, contending team. The Twins have an OF of Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario. Buxton has star-level tools, but hasn’t yet put up a superstar season. He might have this year, but he’s been hurting. Kepler seemed stuck in the Nomar Mazara loop of eschewing development and putting up the same season year after year, but he’s already hit 30 tanks this year and has become a very solid player. The hit tool, position, and walk rate prevent him from Mookie Bettsing things, so he’s perfect: a 3-5 win RF. Eddie Rosario’s aversion to plate discipline keeps him at 2-4 WAR even with a legitimately good hit tool. Check, check, and check in the OF. SS Polanco’s having a breakout season, so may be on his way to a 5-7 win year, but knock some off of his SLG% or batting average, and I think JP Crawford could replicate it at his peak. If Crawford clicks and gets you 4-5 wins, then perfect, the M’s have their Polanco-equivalent…almost. Shed Long seems like a decent pick to be league average, as he was nearly league average at the plate in his first taste of MLB. The glove isn’t ideal, but give him a year plus of seasoning and a 2-3 win season is quite reasonable. The Twins catcher production is another spot that threatens to be TOO good for this analogy to work, but then, that’s been the M’s strength as well. A bit of defensive improvement and Omar Narvaez can get to 3-4 WAR on his own; pair him with anything but a black hole, and the position can get you 4-5 fairly easily.
Now, I’m not quite sure what to do about 3B. The Twins have Miguel Sano, who’s reclaimed some of his prospect luster, but the M’s are quietly sending off Kyle Seager and don’t really have a 3B ready to go in the minors. I’ll waive my magic free agent wand and assume they can find one. CF’s a bit rough, too, with Mallex Smith’s faceplant this year. He’s young so it’s not hopeless, and the positional value makes a 2 WAR season a fairly low bar, but he’s not come close this year. That said, a bounce-back (he’s already HAD a 3 WAR season) or the emergence of Jake Fraley could take care of this. Nelson Cruz is a high bar for anyone, as he’s already at 3 WAR despite missing time. But Vogelbach can get to 3 WAR this year, so that already fits the bill, and he could do more by 2021.
It’s obviously tougher when we look at pitching. But instead of pretending Marco Gonzales is an ace, the M’s just need to find more league-average arms to have a contender. The Twins rotation is anchored by Berrios, but they’ve got Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez, and Jake Odorizzi contributing well, too. BP’s down on the group, but they’re all around league average by Fangraphs. Marco’s had one better-than-average campaign and could get back there with some tweaks, I think. From here, we get more speculative. Erik Swanson and Justus Sheffield – the two high-minors prospects with rotation pedigrees – have been awful this year, but a league average year is a hell of a lot more attainable than the #2 starter tag that I think many attached to Sheffield (the M’s #1 prospect heading into 2019). Swanson, too, has some tools along with his gopheritis. You can’t count on it, but the pair could conceivably figure things out by 2021. Justin Dunn could be a 4th average starter, I suppose, leaving one spot for a free agent or pop-up prospect. The M’s would need 6 or so WAR from their bullpen, which is tougher without a dominant star-level closer like 2018 Edwin Diaz, but again, the Twins and Taylor Rogers are showing that it can be done (by M’s cast-offs like Ryne Harper!).
Is this likely? Err, not really. You really need to essentially shoot the moon here. 16-18 WAR from the staff means the M’s need to get 3+ WAR from every field position to get to 45 WAR(P). And even that figures to be behind the Astros, who could conceivably replace Gerrit Cole with a potted plant and be the divisional favorite in 2021. But while 2019 has failed to see the M’s develop a superstar, effectively closing the door on the way *I* thought they wanted to compete in 2021, Crawford and Narvaez point to another route to relevancy. It’s incredibly hard and may not be enough, but at least this door’s still open. From this vantage point, the not-awful debuts of Long and Austin Nola along with the big step forward by Vogelbach look more interesting. I’m not sure they can get there on the pitching side, but it beats pretending that Sheffield or Gonzales is going to be an MLB #2 anytime soon.
The Padres are in town advertising the classic Astros-style team build. Shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. has blown away even the most optimistic, fever-dreamy expectations fans put on him and may be a perennial All-Star. With Chris Paddack, Manny Machado, and a solid bullpen, they’ve got some star power to go with a formidable minor league system. They drop off pretty quickly, but the ceiling remains high. Cal Quantrill’s adjusted to MLB much better than I’d have guessed, and with Eric Lauer and Joey Lucchesi, they have a solid 1-4 in the rotation. #5 has been a bit more volatile, with Nick Margevicius and Matt Strahm struggling. As a result, the Pads have turned back to Dinelson Lamet, a starter in 2017 who went down with TJ surgery and lost all of 2018 and much of 2019 with rehab. In 2017, he averaged 95 on his rising four-seam fastball, and threw a ton of 86 mph sliders that utterly confused hitters. He wasn’t dominant – despite the dominant breaking ball – due to fastball command and control; he paired too many home runs and too many walks. But he wasn’t bad, and could easily get back to league average or better if he stays healthy.
Besides health, he’s going to have to figure out what to do about lefties, who’ve killed him in 2017 and in his 2019 return. His fastball’s still at 95-96, but it’s more cutter-like with less horizontal and vertical movement. It’s been hit hard in his small-sample 2019, but the slider’s still effective. Tough match-up for the righties today, so the M’s need Vogelbach and Seager to have a nice night.
1: Smith, RF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Santana, DH
4: Vogelbach, 1B
5: Narvaez, C
6: Seager, 3B
7: Nola, 2B
8: Moore, LF
9: Broxton, CF
SP: Wisler/Le Blanc
Tim Beckham’s been suspended 80 games for a positive PED test (it was stanozolol). That’ll end his M’s career, and really hurts his market as he hits free agency with some remaining suspension to serve.
I got to see the Rainiers yesterday on a beautiful Monday morning, but they were dismantled 10-1 by the Iowa Cubs. Newcomer Bryan Ellington was intriguing, hitting 98 multiple times in the 8th inning. The PCL’s off today.
West Virginia sacked Rome 5-2, vandalizing the Braves’ pitching staff for 13 hits. Justin Dunn got the win, but gave up 4 runs on 2 dingers in 5 1/3, as Arkansas beat back the separatists of Northwest Arkansas, 6-4.
Justus Sheffield starts for Arkansas against NW Arkansas’ Dan Tillo, an old-school sinkerballer, in the system’s key game today.
Game 114, Mariners at Astros
Sam Tuivailala vs. Justin Verlander, 11:10am
There was once value in watching the M’s line up against the Astros, but I can’t see it anymore. A day after a no-hitter started by Aaron Sanchez, 1-10 with an ERA over 7 coming into last night’s game, and the M’s will try to salvage a game against Justin Verlander. The whole thing now feels as rote and hopeless as the obligatory moment of silence that begins today’s contest.
1: Smith, CF
2: Narvaez, C
3: Santana, DH
4: Vogelbach, 1B
5: Seager, 3B
6: Beckham, LF
7: Crawford, SS
8: Nola, 2B
9: Moore, RF
SP: Tuivailala
Game 112, Mariners at Astros – Great, THESE Guys Again
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Wade Miley, 5:10pm
I don’t think there’s a better summary of the MLB season for Seattle than this pair of starters. Jerry Dipoto traded for Miley upon taking the reins in late 2015, but that did not turn out well, as Miley’s HR troubles sunk his effectiveness. After another disastrous year in Baltimore, he remade himself for a half a season in Milwaukee, and has been quietly remarkable for Houston, a team that often seems to do these transformations in their sleep.
Meanwhile, Yusei Kikuchi looked like a sneaky-great pick-up. He had solid velocity, an odd, halting delivery that ought to mess with batters’ timing, and a great curveball. The Astros watched Charlie Morton leave and replaced him with Wade Miley? In comparison, the M’s decision to acquire Kikuchi seemed aggressive, especially as the club shed salary the rest of the offseason. Kikuchi has, sadly, not been the kind of player the M’s thought they were getting. I’m sure that player is inside him somewhere, and I’m not sure where the blame lies for this bargain-basement version we’ve watched compile a 5.61 FIP, a 5.21 ERA, and a 6.87 DRA :shudders:. The HR ball has bitten Kikuchi, just as it used to trouble Miley. But it’s more than that: Kikuchi isn’t missing the bats he should, and his walk rate’s a bit high, a real liability in this high-HR game. That curve that we first saw befuddle Joey Votto back in the spring is now a liability: batters are hitting .327 with a .673 SLG% off of it. His four-seam fastball has been an enjoyable experience for batters as well; they’re slugging over .600 off of his primary pitch.
Miley had problems with his four-seam and sinker at times, and thus the key to his resurrection as a MLB starter was to essentially relegate them to fill-in duty and turn his seldom-used cutter into his primary fastball. Hey, it worked for Brandon McCarthy for a while, and it really worked for Roy Halladay. Now, he uses his four-seamer almost as a put-away pitch, trying to sneak it OVER barrels that get used to his straight, sinking cutter. I don’t know how Kikuchi and the M’s plan to adjust things, but it’s worth looking into emulating. The one pitch that’s worked well for Kikuchi is his slider, so he can spin the ball a bit. Maybe a cutter might get batters off the four-seam, or maybe he can just re-work his curve. In any event, he’s got to do something.
1: Smith, RF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Nola, 2B
4: Santana, DH
5: Vogelbach, 1B
6: Beckham, LF
7: Seager, 3B
8: Murphy, C
9: Broxton, CF
SP: Kikuchi
Austin Nola, #3 hitter. Wow. Seriously, it’s been great watching the kind of success the long-time MiLB vet has had both in Tacoma and now Seattle.
Trade Deadline Round-Up: Leake to Arizona, Elias/Strickland to Washington (Oh, and the M’s Play The Rangers)
Wade LeBlanc vs. Mike Minor, 5:05pm
After weeks of inaction and complaints that the incentives to get better were broken or non-existent, the past 24 hours have provided us with a deadline day to remember, even if 90% of the action was jammed into the last few minutes. The biggest movers of the day were clearly the Astros, who brought in both Zach Greinke, unquestionably the biggest name moving, and also ex-Jays SP Aaron Sanchez. The cost was significant: they’ve moved former top OF prospect Derek Fisher to Toronto, and a package including Seth Beer, Corbin Martin, and JB Bukauskas. The Astros look ready to contend with the Dodgers in the World Series, and what was still a fairly formidable minor league system looks thinned out noticeably.
The M’s weren’t going to be doing anything that flashy, but they’ve made some moves, too. First, the long, drawn-out saga of Mike Leake is finally over. The M’s got dinged-up minor league IF Jose Caballero to send Leake to Arizona, exactly where he wanted to go to be closer to his disabled father. The D-Backs will pay about $6 M of the money left on Leake’s contract; not sure if that includes his 2021 buyout. Caballero is 22 and fast. He was leading the Cal League in steals when he got hurt, and posts a solid walk rate leading to decent OBPs. He had some decent numbers in the Midwest League, but it’s been slightly tougher sledding in the Cal League for him, though he’s still posted an above-average line. He’s a flyer, but it almost doesn’t matter. As I said yesterday, the M’s owed it to themselves and Leake to just move on from the righty starter, and they seem to have done him (and his family) a real favor. Cool.
In another deal, the M’s packaged Hunter Strickland and Roenis Elias to Washington to bolster the middle/back of a beleaguered Nats bullpen. It’s been an absolute disaster this year, and with Strickland back, the hope is that they’re buying low on two guys who can munch some innings before they get to Sean Doolittle. That’s fine by me – I hope it works out. The M’s have no need for either, especially after Elias’ swoon this year, and especially in recent months. His ability to allow fly balls and yet not HRs did not survive the new dragless baseball, and he allows a ton of contact in front of a suspect defense. I can’t imagine what I’d think as a fan, and your big additions to fix a weakness that’s pushed you from the elite teams in the NL to the fringes of the wild card are a guy who just came off a lat injury and Roenis Elias, but that’s not my problem (ok, ok, they also got Daniel Hudson from Toronto). In return, the M’s get three live arms, essentially all destined for relief roles. 26-year old Tayleor Guilbeau has a solid, mid-90s fastball from the left side, and carved up AA this year. A low arm slot allows him to run some above-average ground ball rates. Grounders are the calling card of sinkerballer Aaron Fletcher, too. Fletcher’s 23, and dominated high-A before moving up to AA recently. I don’t think either will be a real wormkiller; ground ball rates are higher in the lower minors, after all, but I love the combination of grounders and Ks. The wild card in the return is converted OF Elvis Alvarado, who still doesn’t know how to locate, but has touched 100 in his brief tenure as a pitcher. All in all, it’s a very solid move, as the M’s had no need for two pitchers who realistically were only late-inning relievers out of necessity, and late-inning relievers don’t really matter for them at this point. In return, they get two guys with plus fastballs, and another with movement and some GB% upside. Is it system changing? No, and the M’s already have some relief prospects. But they traded something they don’t need now for a shot at a playable late-inning reliever in a few years. Easy call.
The M’s will call up/purchase the contract of RP Zac Grotz, who’d been with AA Arkansas. Grotz, a former Astros draft pick and minor league FA signing, throws righty and posted 69 Ks to 11 BBs out of the pen for Arkansas this year in 57 1/3 IP.
John Trupin of LL is bullish that the Astros going all-in for 2019 makes the M’s play for 2021 more likely, as the Astros will have fewer prospects providing them with depth/youth then. I’m not convinced, but then that’s kind of my thing. Seth Beer going to an NL team is great, as Beer’s dominated two levels this year. But he became expendable when Yordan Alvarez dominated two levels, too (one of them is MLB). Their pitching prospects stalled out this year and THAT, more than the fact that Bukauskas and Martin are leaving, is the one glimmer of hope here. But Alvarez is just 22, Alex Bregman just 25 and Carlos Correa is just 24. The M’s still need to identify a player with their level of upside, and then find several more. With Mitch Haniger suffering a lost season, he’ll be over 30 in 2021. The Astros reloading after acquiring Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander in recent years demonstrates that they have the ability and development system to do this regularly, so I can’t imagine why they wouldn’t trade prospects for whoever the big deadline addition is whenever the M’s near a competitive window. Still, there’s no doubt their depth has taken a hit here. That, compared with the lost season of Forrest Whitley and the regression from Josh James, gives the M’s a faint hope. But they need a few guys to take major, major steps forward. And soon.
1: Smith, RF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Santana, DH
4: Narvaez, C
5: Beckham, LF
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Nola, 2B
8: Seager, 3B
9: Broxton, CF
SP: LeBlanc
The Rangers lefty Ariel Jurado was once a prized prospect, but the M’s continued his mediocre pro career by knocking him around a bit yesterday. That’s becoming something of a pattern, as their vaunted international scouting gives them raw material that develops into solid prospects, and then…. nothing. Jurado was once the #2 guy in the sytem behind Yohander Mendez, who was the next big thing, but has stalled out and is now hurt. Martin Perez kind of did this years ago. They’ve done well with Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, but didn’t develop those guys. All of this is a concern for Rangers fans, I’d think, because they swapped reliever Chris Martin for Braves command/control SP Kolby Allard. How exactly is Allard going to avoid the traps that ensnared Jurado and Mendez? Allard’s stuff isn’t quite what it was, but it’s playable. Some org could get him to be a real #4 starter, but I’m not sure it’s Texas. For the record, I’m not sure it’d be Seattle, either.
Game 110, Mariners at Rangers – Schrödinger’s Starter
Mike Leake vs. Ariel Jurado, 5:10pm
Mike Leake is, as of this writing, a Seattle Mariner. Or perhaps not. He’s scheduled to start tonight, but could be traded at any time, with JP Morosi giving his odds of appearing in Arlington tonight as 50:50. I could check twitter again, or turn on the radio, but I kind of like this uncertainty. Right now, it’s almost like superposition, the quantum physics idea that particles can be *simultaneously* a wave and a particle until they’re observed, at which point they lock into one phase or the other. At this moment, Leake is between two teams, or on both at the same time, and that’s…well, it’s just a dumb nerdy joke, but we’re all just playing out the string here.
Leake should be gone by now, and why he isn’t has been the topic of a lot of discussion in baseball circles. Well, not about Leake specifically, but about why teams within striking distance of the wild card aren’t actively moving prospects to acquire rotation help. Teams are having discussions re: Trevor Bauer, Noah Syndergaard, Mike Minor, Leake, and others, but teams haven’t made big trades to actually get that done, with the somewhat odd exception of the Mets, who picked up Marcus Stroman a few days ago. Is he Thor’s replacement, or is another move on the way, or are the Mets still kind of in it? The fact that they seem to be shopping Edwin Diaz leads me to think that they’re not, but who knows. At least they did something. One of the problems here for the M’s is that this inactivity is that the market is now a bit crowded, and Leake is not exactly the biggest name on the market. Neither is Jason Vargas, who just went to Philly, but the light returns that Vargas and even Stroman got can’t be good news if you’re Jerry Dipoto.
But at some level, this isn’t about the return. Mike Leake will never command a big haul, just like he didn’t when he came over from St. Louis. The M’s will probably kick in some money, and that’s fine. But we’re just past the point where the M’s need to really worry about fielding a credible MLB roster. They just had Dylan Moore and Kris Negron in OF corners. I’m not a fan of total tear-down rebuilds, and think that chasing high amateur draft picks is something of a fool’s errand. Leake and Edwin Encarnacion and Anthony Swarzak and others made some sense if this step-back year went as planned. It didn’t, and there’s no real reason to keep Leake here – seemingly against his will – just to keep up appearances. I’d like Leake to go be in a playoff run somewhere, just as he was when the M’s got him. I’m not all that worried about the prospect Seattle gets back for him; it’s not going to be anyone who’ll change the system. I’d like to see Justus Sheffield or Justin Dunn or just about anyone, which would give us a glimpse of the future.
I’m not blaming the M’s FO for this, by the way. I blame them for things all the time, but Dipoto is quite obviously willing to go for it when he’s in contention. It often seemed like Dipoto was the only GM in the game who cared about the second wild card. I think many of his trades weren’t exactly winners, but he was obviously trying to make the team better in mid-2017, for example. Other teams simply don’t see much value in a coin-flip one game play-in. Which is kind of wild; I was dubious about the wild card game from a fan point of view. The whole point of baseball playoffs is that they were *series*. But in hindsight, I think they’ve been great: fans get a game 7-type atmosphere, a single night where everyone knows it’s do or die ahead of time. Networks get a rare *scheduled* elimination game, and they’ve mostly been great TV. But they clearly aren’t the playoffs. The road team may not get the revenue enhancement of a home playoff game, and if teams had do-or-die regular season games, they may need to have their #3 starter on the mound. I’ve seen calls for expanding them to a three-game series, but that extends the MLB playoffs fairly significantly. You could remove the perverse incentive to tank by changing the way draft positions are determined instead. Whatever MLB does, I think they’ve got to look at changes that better align the incentives to compete. Sweetening the pot for contenders or weakening the incentive to just be awful could help. Again, I think that means the league and players have to do something that looks on paper to hurt their prized “competitive balance.” Prioritizing “balance” is a big part of what’s gotten us here, to a league with superteams and contenders who seem to prefer not contending.
1: Smith, RF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Santana, DH
4: Vogelbach, 1B
5: Beckham, LF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Nola, 2B
8: Murphy, C
9: Keon Broxton, CF
SP: Leake?
Welcome Keon Broxton! Smith in RF seems odd, but I understand it given their active roster at this point. With Kristopher Negron now in LA (and slick-fielding IF return Daniel Castro in Tacoma), the M’s don’t really have a normal RF until Domingo Santana’s injury fully heals.
Justin Dunn starts just down the road from this one in Frisco. Tacoma kicks off a homestand against Omaha with Anthony Misiewicz on the hill. Damon Casetta-Stubbs starts for Everett in Hillsboro tonight. Julio Rodriguez hit his 8th HR for West Virginia last night in a 4-3 win, and Hillsboro blanked Everett 3-0, as Deyni Olivero gave up 1 hit in 5 scoreless IP with 7 Ks. Frisco jumped on Ricardo Sanchez of Arkansas early, then held on for 5-4 win.
Game 109, Tigers at Mariners
Matt Wisler/Tommy Milone vs. Matt Boyd, 1:10pm
The Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10 games, which is bad, but not *too* unusual. If the schedule and injuries align, you can have a bad couple of weeks. But the Tigers are not an ordinary ball club. They’ve been on a bender that’s continued essentially unabated since early-mid April. In their last 30 games, they are 4-26. The M’s have *felt* like that at times, but this series has been a good reminder of just how bad you have to be to grab the #1 overall draft position in 2019. The Orioles trotted out one of the worst pitching staffs I’ve ever seen, and they’ve easily left the Tigers in the dust.
The one bright spot the Tigers have had this year is Mercer Island native and Oregon State product Matthew Boyd, who’s put together a remarkable K:BB ratio of 168:26, good for a K% over 32% with a walk rate of just 5%. An extreme fly-baller, he’s been bit by HRs, but that’s generally OK given the ball. He’s become a dominating pitcher despite a fastball that averages 92-93. His slider is his outpitch, and batters have generally struggled against it even when they make contact, but he’s still notched slightly more Ks on the year with a fastball that looks fairly ordinary by movement and velocity.
Boyd’s interesting, as he hasn’t generally been a super high-K pitcher before 2019, but he’s worked a lot at Driveline Baseball in Kent both to improve his velocity and presumably on some pitch design work. When he came up, he had a higher release point, a much harder slider (84-87mph) and his primary breaking ball was a curve at 75. The curve is now a show-me pitch he doesn’t really feature, and he’s also backed way off of his change-up usage, too, preferring to throw righties his slider instead. By pitch *movement* there’s nothing much to say: his fastball has less rise now, thanks to the lowered release point, and his slider has more sink, but that would seem to be related to its much lower velocity. But obviously pitch design isn’t about a pitch fx leaderboard; it’s more about altering a pitch’s shape to fit a specific, individual strategy – either to play off of other pitches, or to attack certain batters. Thus far, it’s been a very successful transition: his sizable platoon splits have been trimmed down, and that’s pushed his overall effectiveness up. He’s at 3.3 fWAR and 3.2 WARP on the year – two very different metrics arriving at the same conclusion. If he could figure out a way to limit HRs, he’d easily be one of the top starters in the AL.
The M’s acquired OF Keon Broxton who’d been DFA’d by Baltimore, who picked him up after the Brewers DFA’d him earlier. Broxton was an interesting if polarizing young player with Milwaukee, whose patience and power overcame a sky-high whiff rate. In 2016, he was worth almost 2 WAR despite playing part time and amassing 244 PAs. It’s a somewhat familiar skillset in the modern game, but it was odd to see in a CF. He hit 20 HRs in mostly full-time duty the next year, but his overall line sunk, as his walk rate dropped, pulling his OBP under .300. That off-season, the Brewers signed Lorenzo Cain, and that was essentially that for Broxton. He was awful in part-time duty last year, and has cratered this year, with a K% over 40% and a low ISO, which is why he’s been waived by one of the worst teams in the league. This is an interesting test of the M’s new hitting coaching staff. If you heard the Mariner Magazine today, you may have caught an interview with new hitting strategy coach who talked about the organizational emphasis on swinging at the right pitches. Broxton does…not have a history of doing that, but he remains an interesting puzzle. I’d love to think the M’s could solve it, but it’s also likely that Broxton’s playing his way out of the league pretty quickly.
1: Smith, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Santana, DH
4: Beckham, LF
5: Murphy, C
6: Nola, 2B
7: Seager, 3B
8: Court, 1B
9: Negron, RF
SP: Wisler, then Milone
Great to see long-time minor league vet Ryan Court get his first hit and RBIs in yesterday’s win. He’s played in independent ball and had minor league deals with several teams before making his MLB debut this week at age 31. He’s been a decent enough hitter, but lacked the power you’d generally demand from a 1B. He’s tapped into a lot more of that this year in the M’s system, which is a pretty good sign for the player development system. He’s obviously just filling in, but it’s always cool to see guys like this – and Tim Lopes, who was concussed a game or two into his MLB tenure.
Game 106, Tigers at Mariners – How Bad Do You Want It?
Erik Swanson/Wade LeBlanc vs. Drew VerHagen, 7:10pm
We’ve seen some rough pitching match-ups this year, but this game almost repels interest. I *like* Wade LeBlanc, and this team would be so much more interesting next year if Erik Swanson was good, so it’s not like there’s nothing going for it, but this is a game between two of the worst teams in the league, with one starter making a return after being DFA’d and outrighted in May, and the other a (currently) replacement-level opener and a veteran innings eater. I try to find some interest in every game, and we’ll give it a go here, but man, it looks like a gorgeous evening.
In mid-April, the Tigers were leading the AL Central, having started at 8-4. The M’s were 12-2, soon to be 13-2. Since that time, the M’s have rather famously gone 30-61, while the Tigers – hooo boy, the Tigers – have gone 22-63. The M’s have descended into unwatchability, but they’re *still* noticeably better than the Tigers. It wasn’t that long ago that the Tigers had a rotation with peak Justin Verlander and near-peak Max Scherzer, and late-peak Miguel Cabrera. They made it to a World Series but couldn’t quite win, and they always knew (like the Royals a year or two after) that they’d pay for their run with some lean years. The lean years are in full effect, and while the M’s are better positioned at the moment with better young players and a better farm system, the Tigers at least won a pennant in recent memory. But I’m not sure Tigers fans understood just how bad this year would go, with what looks like a remarkable inability to develop young players and a pitching staff that’s rivaling the M’s in futility.
Into the breach steps Drew VerHagen, a Vanderbilt product who was an unexciting but fungible reliever/swing-man in recent years. He’s got a sinker that’s got decent horizontal movement from his high release point, and he has a slider and big curve to go with it. He didn’t miss bats in the minors, and he had some control issues limiting his ceiling as well. This year in April/May, the wheels came off. In just 6 innings, he gave up 10 hits and 10 walks, producing, uh, 10 runs (10 earned), a performance that led to his designation for assignment. He lost the strike zone, couldn’t get anyone to chase, and couldn’t miss a bat if he threw the ball in the zone – that’s pretty much the perfect storm of pitching ineptitude, but he turned it around a bit in AAA (after slipping through waivers). Notably, he started throwing strikes again, but teams that struggle with pitching often see this; a pitcher will do OK at something at AAA, but fail completely in the bigs. The M’s know this issue all too well, so we’ll see if VerHagen’s encouraging recent form in Toledo means anything now.
Swanson will try to disguise his fastball a bit better, as it’s been the primary contributor to a HR/9 rate well over 3. He throws a four-seamer 2/3 of the time, but batters are slugging .630 off of it, which is a nasty combination. He’s been very stingy with walks, but he may want to avoid throwing get-me-over strikes for a while. Really challenging major league hitters with an extra-jumpy baseball isn’t a great plan. Luckily for Swanson, I’m not sure the Tigers have more than one or two major league hitters.
1: Smith, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Narvaez, C
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Beckham, LF
6: Seager, 3B
7: Nola, 1B
8: Negron, RF
9: Lopes, 2B
SP: Swanson/LeBlanc
Game 105, Rangers at Mariners – Pitching Sale! Get a Starter Now and Save!
Mike Leake vs. Mike Minor, 12:40pm
Mikes Leake and Minor are both 31, and both signed through 2020 (Leake’s got a 2021 option). Leake is pretty clearly on the market, with the M’s turning down a deal or two on him, holding out for a bit more as we get towards the deadline. Minor is probably on the market, and definitely should be: the Rangers are on the very fringes of the playoff race, but Minor may net more in return given his stellar 2019 campaign in a tough pitching environment.
So, both guys have similar contracts and are the same age, but that’s about where the similarities end. Mike Leake is all about durability, having made at least 30 starts every year since 2012. For teams hard hit by injuries (New York, Oakland, etc.), that could be somewhat compelling. On the other hand, his fastball velocity is down 2 full MPH from when the M’s acquired him, and his sinker – essentially his bread and butter fastball his entire career – has been an unmitigated disaster this season, forcing him to improvise with a flurry of cutters and under-powered four-seamers. Mike Minor, on the other hand, offers upside: he’s posting the best K rate of his career this year, and his four-seam fastball velocity of 93 is higher than it was back in his pre-injury starter days with the Braves in 2012-13. He’s got a very good change-up with tons of armside run, which helps him neutralize right handed bats. But he’s got a TJ surgery on his resume, knocking out his entire 2015-16, and a portion of 2014. He relieved in 2016, so his track record as a post-TJ starter is more limited. There’s less value in his career numbers, because he’s pretty clearly altered just about everything in his approach. Time was, he was similar to Leake in that he had moderate K rates coupled with low walk rates. He got there a different way, mind you: he was as extreme a fly ball guy as Leake was a ground ball maven. But the focus wasn’t on dominance/bat-missing, but rather on controlled contact and not beating yourself with walks. In addition to posting career best K rates, though, Minor’s now posting a career high walk rate. It hasn’t hurt him, though, because he’s stranding so many thanks to those Ks and remarkable splits with men on base.
Leake could get moved soon, especially if he follows last Friday’s masterpiece with another strong start, but the M’s will have to buy down some salary, just as the Cardinals did when the M’s acquired him. Minor should fetch a bit more because he’s been the better pitcher this year, and because he would slot into the playoff rotation on most contenders (Leake would be more about *getting* to the postseason than taking up postseason innings in a short series), but the Rangers could conceivably upgrade their return if they kicked in a few bucks. More importantly, the Mariners are the more motivated sellers. The Rangers could conceivably extend Minor if they feel they’re closer to contention; the whole “if we’re .500 now despite down years from just about every batter, just add some regression and we’re wild card contenders,” argument. I’m not sure that’s true, but they’re 11 games ahead of the M’s, so they get to actually have that debate. The M’s just need to sell everything that isn’t bolted down or hurt. Given his track record, I don’t think Jerry Dipoto would bat an eye at having to add some money to improve their return for Leake, who, for his part, pretty clearly wants out.
1: Smith, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Beckham, LF
4: Narvaez, DH
5: Murphy, C
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Nola, 2B
8: Seager, 3B
9: Negron, RF
SP: Leake
Hickory beat West Virginia 5-4 last night despite a HR from Bobby Honeyman. Modesto beat up on Stockton 6-1, thanks to a brilliant start from Steven Moyers, who fanned 11 against 1 BB in 8 innings, giving up just 1 run. Tacoma’s skid continued, as they dropped a classic Reno game in Reno, 10-7. The R’s hit 3 HRs (Mariscal, Brugman and Court, for those following at home), but gave up 4. George Kirby tossed 3 scoreless in Everett’s win to make it a winning debut for new manager Louis Boyd in his hometown as the Frogs beat Vancouver 5-3. Kirby’s yet to allow a run in his first 7 IP as a pro, with 4 Ks against no walks.
Arkansas is back in action tonight with Ricardo Sanchez on the hill. Ian McKinney starts for Modesto, Kelvin Nunez for Everett, and Anthony Misiewicz for Tacoma.
Everett is 19-20 on the year, West Virginia is 52-50, Modesto is 46-57, Arkansas is 60-39, and Tacoma is 48-54.
Game 104, Rangers at Mariners – Finding Relief
Matt Wisler/Tommy Milone vs. Brett Martin/Pedro Payano, 7:10pm
The M’s beleaguered pitching staff got a much-needed break last night as Marco Gonzales spun 7 very effective innings against the suddenly-reeling Texas Rangers. The bullpen didn’t have a lot to do, but they more-or-less got the job done, not that holding a 5 run lead for 1-2 innings is all that much to ask. Still, the M’s pitching problems have completely sunk their season, and while the Orioles are worse overall, you can make a very good case that the M’s have the worst *bullpen* in the game. By FG, there they are: right at the bottom, at nearly a full win below replacement-level. The Mets have a worse ERA, but better strikeout, walk, HR, and stranded runner numbers. By BBREF’s ERA-based numbers, they’re in last place as well.
You know all of this, and of course, so do the Mariners. They’ve been remaking the bullpen essentially the entire year; the season opened with 9 relievers (thanks to the extra roster spot), and with a 10th swapped in nearly immediately. Of those 10, only 2 are currently on the active roster (Roenis Elias and Cory Gearrin). The guys expected to take a bunch of innings – Hunter Strickland, Nick Rumbelow, Chasen Bradford, Anthony Swarzak, Matt Festa and Zac Rosscup, haven’t featured much, and three have been shipped out. The pen showed signs of failing early on, so the trades and roster moves have been happening for months. A stunning 31 pitchers have appeared in relief for the M’s, and the names reveal the waves of pitchers the M’s have thrown at their bullpen black hole. Conner Sadzeck was one of the first to come from outside the org, but he was followed by Austin Adams, Mike Wright, Matt Carasiti, Anthony Bass, and Jesse Biddle. The first source of replacements were the in-house prospects and minor league signings, from Tommy Milone (obviously more as a starter, but he’s relieved, too), Parker Markel, Tayler Scott, David McKay, Ryan Garton, Ruben Alaniz, Gerson Bautista, and the SP prospects Erik Swanson and Justus Sheffield. As injuries removed options, the M’s have cycled through ever more options, and with one-time RP prospect Ian Gibaut DFA’d today, I’d suspect they’ll continue to do so. But what’s depressing is just how little movement in the group’s overall numbers we’ve seen even after completely remaking it several times.
Tom Tango created a stat based on win probability added called shutdowns and meltdowns back in 2010, off of an idea from Jeff Zimmermann. Essentially, a reliever gets a shutdown if the team’s chance of winning goes up by a certain amount during his appearance, and he’d get a meltdown if the chances went DOWN by a similar amount. It was an idea to essentially replace the save, which compresses really tough/important outings (5 outs with a 1-run lead and 2 on in scoring position, or even a standard 9th inning, team up by 1) with easier ones (no one on, up by 3). You can pick nits with it, but it’s good, as it puts all relievers – not just closers – on the same scale. Like saves, you expect there to be a lot more shutdowns than meltdowns, simply because hitting is difficult, and pitchers “win” more often. As such, no team’s had *more* meltdowns than shutdowns since the 2007 Tampa Bay Devil Rays. A couple of teams – teams with memorably awful bullpens – have had the two exactly equal (the 2012 Cubs and the 2009 Royals). This year’s M’s have a real shot at this. As of today, they’re at 63 shutdowns and 67 meltdowns. The Orioles are +2, while the Nats are exactly even at 62 apiece. Getting Austin Adams back should help, but it might not be enough if the rest of the pen doesn’t help; that ’09 Royals team had a great season from Joakim Soria, but everyone around him was awful.
The stepback year and the bullpen woes have taken some of the focus off of Kyle Seager, who’s been atrocious, at least before last night’s HR. Here’s hoping that’s the big hit that can get him going again, because his line of .189/.265/.349 in his age 31 year looks waaaaaay too much like another 3B in his age 31 year: Scott Spiezio’s 2004 line of .215/.288/.346.
1: Smith, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Santana, RF
4: Narvaez, C
5: Beckham, DH
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Nola, 2B
8: Seager, 3B
9: Negron, LF
SP: Matt Wisler, then Tommy Milone
Vogie getting moved down along with Seager; can’t complain about that. But just as some of the M’s scuffles have been lost in this stepback season, so too has Narvaez’s blossoming as a hitter. He’s all of the growth he had last year in Chicago and added a bit of power. What a great, great acquisition.
Dee Gordon’s injury is a bit more severe than we first thought, so he’s been put on the 10-day IL, which would seem to knock down a lot of his trade value. To replace him, the M’s are calling up Tim Lopes from AAA. Lopes was a draft pick of the M’s many moons ago (2012, to be exact) and then flipped him for Pat Venditte a while back. When he became a minor league free agent, they signed him, and he’s had a great season for Tacoma. Glad to see a long time farmhand get a shot in the big leagues. Every one of those shots comes at someone’s expense, and to get Lopes on the 40-man, the M’s DFA’d Parker Markel, who’d looked amazing for Tacoma back in April.
I’ll end on a positive: Wisler’s last ‘open’ in the Angels series was a textbook example of how that strategy can work. The slider-heavy righty got Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons and even Shohei Ohtani, and then turned it over to soft-tossing Wade LeBlanc. Let’s hope it’s as effective tonight.
George Kirby starts for Everett today, who just hired a new manager – 2017 M’s draft pick Louis Boyd! Boyd, a 2B out of the University of Arizona, is from Vancouver BC.
Game 101, Angels at Mariners
Matt Wisler vs. Griffin Canning, 6:10pm
After a near perfect game on Friday and Edgar’s HOF induction tomorrow, the M’s get something really rare for tonight’s game: a chance to celebrate. It’s a lost season, and *any* celebration of a retired icon includes plenty of nostalgia, but what makes this rare is that it isn’t forced; it’s more than nostalgia.
This ought to be fun, and I’m looking forward to going tonight. Edgar is remembered for 1995 and the 2001 season, but Edgar toiled for years for go-nowhere M’s clubs, and failed to MAKE said clubs, though that had more to do with the M’s than Edgar himself.
That he stayed, that he took the club from nothing to dominance is one of the many reasons he means so much to M’s fans, as Ryan Divish’s story details. Talking about that with my kids is going to be a highlight of the evening.
1: Smith, CF
2: Crawford, SS
3: Santana, RF
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Narvaez, C
6: Seager, 3B
7: Beckham, LF
8: Nola, 1B
9: Gordon, 2B
SP: Wisler
It’s the first ever LF start for Tim Beckham: he’s played a single inning in LF in his big league career, and that came earlier this year.