Woo.
JMB · December 16, 2004 at 9:43 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Beltre!!!!
Unbelievable, both the signing itself and the price. Troy Glaus costs $45M over four years, and Beltre a mere $65M over five? Great, great deal. I haven’t been this impressed with an M’s move since the Freddy Garcia trade, and before that… can’t think of one.
They still need a starter, and I’m still down on the Sexson signing… but that’s for another time. Right now, bask in the glow of this wonderful acquisition.
Comments
132 Responses to “Woo.”
RealRhino– yes, that’s correct. Using the $2M/MargW standard that I mentioned in the “Market” thread, we’re paying Beltre for about 6 1/2 wins a year, which translates as “arguably at the lower end of the MVP ballot, but not a major candidate for the award.”
(We’re also paying Sexson for about the same level of performance, just not for as many years.)
#98 — off topic, sure, but here’s a cool one:
http://shop.mlb.com/product/index.jsp?productId=696782&sName=ZRZYBYLDJYV&sNumber=77&step=setCustomJersey&cp=1452366
Still awaiting Beltre to be added to that list (and THAT brings it back around to the topic of this thread).
Hey, David, any Idea if Zrzybyldjyv is going to be in the next future forty?
He’s the 21-year-old switch pitcher from Vladivostok we just signed. You haven’t heard of him? 😉
I must be delirious from the Beltre shell-shock %-}
#94- Eric,
What if I told you player C = 721 724 714 1017 was 21, 22, 23, and 24 respectively?
That makes a huge difference; it changes a stand out year to a break out year. He is entering his prime, while Delgado is on his way out. It gets even better when you reveal that he plays a position the M’s have needed for…. EVER and were they do not already have an overabundance of above average to good players.
#102, 103 Even better is the idea that you might get a #7 Cirillo jersey. At $99!! I suppose it beats a “Hit me” jersey.
As an example: I don’t have PECOTA, and I know they are different players, but look at Eric Chavez. His age 22 season he hits .277/.355/.495. Beltre’s age 21 season is .290/.360/.475. Pretty similar. Beltre was one year younger. I think it’s reasonable to project that by Age 26, they’d be putting up similar numbers, all other things being equal. Chavez at 26, .276/.397/.501. A .311 EqA. At age 25 he was at 61 VORP, probably about 70-75 VORP at 26 if he didn’t break his hand. So it seems still reasonable to conclude that but for his botched appendectomy, Beltre would have put up similar numbers. I know that players may progress at different rates, but Beltre’s first two seasons in MLB were both good, so it’s not like his Age 21 year was just a fluke. Assuming that Beltre doesn’t repeat 2004 but instead only puts up numbers similar to what Chavez put up in his Age 26 season (.311 EqA, 70-75 VORP, .280/.380/.525), that’s still a good value, I think.
His future performance remains to be seen, but I’m quite happy with the Beltre signing if he performs somewhere halfway between last year and his previous not-so-flashy seasons. One reason is his defense, another is his age, another reason is even his mediocre seasons were an upgrade over previous Mariner 3Bmen. It’s a hard position to fill, and as long as he’s healthy, that spot is filled.
Imagine he underperforms – .275, 25+hrs and a solid glove. I’ll take it.
YEAH!!!! IT’S OFFICIAL!!!!!!!
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2002123120_webmari17.html
Whoa, according to MLB.com, we used some of the Kaz money to pay for this! Wow. If this is true, I am very impressed. I thought that was gone.
From the Press Release
“…Major League home-run leader inks five-year deal [with Mariners]”
Never thought I’d see that. Today is truly a glorious day.
Now, lets DFA Willie! I doubt it, but who knows, after this signing..
Jim Street reports that a source close to the club says that the M’s are indeed using “leftover” Sasaki money and that the payroll for next season figures to be around $93M, not including the Cirillo (and the crapfest we got for him) dollars. Just a few more items to tuck away.
Oh, the LA Times seems to suggest that Beltre’s contract will turn out to be frontloaded, which, if true, may somewhat balance out Sexson’s backloaded deal.
So, when’s the Press Conference?
in 5 minutes.
They have the press release up on the site though: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/sea/news/sea_press_release.jsp?ymd=20041217&content_id=923782&vkey=pr_sea&fext=.jsp
I’d like to point out the following lines to whoever suggested Milton Bradley in one of these threads:
“We are also pleased that, like Richie Sexson, Adrian is a great person as well as a great player. He will be a terrific addition to our community.”
I’m glad to see I got a few folks thinking about the possibility that Beltre might revert, but apparently it isn’t even remotely possible [grin].
A few clarifications and comments on preceding arguments (many of which were very good):
1 – Beltre only had appendix issues during one of his three lousy seasons.
2 – Beltre was 25 last season, not 24 (minor clarification JR [grin]). Delgado’s numbers dwarf Beltre’s when you compare them at the same ages.
3 – Beltre has had one great year and three lousy ones over the past four years. Granted his age does improve the chances that 2004 being a break out year, but it does not cast it in stone. All that I am saying is the risk of Beltre reverting is probably very real and should be considered. Again, I hope I’m wrong here and Beltre works out. But it would be irrational to figure that he is a lock not to revert.
4- Who would you rather bet on to post a 900 OPS season – a 25 year old who has done it once during the past 6 seasons (and not come close the other 5) or a 32 year old who has done it 7 seasons in a row (and posted 873 and 848 the two seasons prior to that)? Age is certainly an attribute to consider, but, for me, proven ability is clearly more important. Modern conditioning (and certain substances) has done a lot to extend players primes into their mid-30s
5 – I think the Chavez comparison is not a very strong argument. I could just as easily choose a poor player with similar numbers to support my argument. One contra positive argument pretty much blows that argument. Just because one player tracks with another early in their careers doesn’t mean that he will continue to track. Comparing Delgado, and what he is likely to do, with Beltre is relevant because both were free-agents likely to be signed by the M’s.
Again, I hope that I’m wrong about this one and Beltre continues to impress. I think we all expect a bit of a drop from 2004, but let’s hope the breakout continues.
Eric
Say, what happens to Dobbs, Leone and Willie now? Anyone care to guess?
Eric, I think you may be making arguments for the sake that you made an issue, and don’t want to back down from it; Delgado’s numbers eclipse Beltre’s at the same age? Delgado at 25 hit 30 homeruns with a .350 OBP and a .878 OPS. His career total in homeruns at that point was 67. Beltre at 25 hit 48 homeruns, .388 OBP, and a 1.017 OPS. He has 147 career homeruns at age 25, second only to Albert Pujols in relation to age.
“Beltre was 25 last season, not 24 (minor clarification JR [grin]).”
Yeah, I relized that after I posted, my bad.
When you say, Eric, that Beltre only lost one season to the appendectomy, you are ignoring the reports at the time that said he was clearly still weaker and evidently still recovering the next season as well. It’s true that his 2003 wasn’t strong, though; I’ll give you that, if you’ll acknowledge that Beltre’s ability was established long before 2004, that he was an excellent player at 21, and that there might be good reason to think that a player who showed great promise when very young and broke out in a big way at 25 is a lot better bet to keep his gains than a breakout season from someone from whom nothing had ever been seen or expected.
#117 — Re the Chavez argument. Find them. Who are these players that posted a .780 and .835 OPS in a pitchers’ park at age 20 and 21, respectively, that never panned out for reasons other than injury, drugs, plane crash, whatever?
Yes, it’s possible Beltre will never live up to last season. But Beltre and Delgado aren’t interchangable. 3B has been a problem for the Mariners, and the M’s aren’t alone: it’s tough to find good ones anywhere in the league (unless you’re NY and you move an all-star over from another position). Would I rather have Delgado than Sexson? Of course, if for no other reason than the injury risk. But the choice wasn’t Delgado or Beltre. And given what’s on the market (and no, I don’t think Beltran was ever a realistic possibility for the Mariners) he fills an important hole and sets a great foundation for more rebuilding in future seasons.
BTW, anyone else looking forward to a (healthy) Sexson and Beltre coming to bat against the Rangers in Arlington? With Ichiro already on base, of course.
Apparently Howard Lincoln did an about face on the spending of the Sasaki money in light of non-renewals of season tickets.
FROM MARINERS.ORG
One source close to the club said some of the leftover Kazuhiro Sasaki money ($8 million) is being used and the player payroll figures to be around $93 million, not counting the $6 million owed former third baseman Jeff Cirillo and minor league catcher Wiki Gonzalez, acquired in a trade with the Padres for Cirillo.
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/sea/news/sea_news.jsp?ymd=20041217&content_id=923758&vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp
re The Beltre-DePodesta Thing – #s 9, 11, 13, 54, 56, 67, 68 (etc.):
DePodesta should get over it. It happens all the time–in other sports too. (TOM CHAMBERS, BOBBY BELL.)
If a player gets presented with an offer, and he goes back to another team (because he told them he would), he might find (a la JODY REED) that the second team will not meet the offer, and then find out that the first team’s offer is no longer on the table.
BELTRE may have considered that possibility.
“Beltre was 25 last season, not 24 (minor clarification JR [grin]).â€
Yeah, I relized that after I posted, my bad.
Actually, to be super technical about it, he was 24 at the start of the 2004 season (he turned 25 on April 7).
Re “Protection,” # 84:
Here’s a link to one of the studies that eponymous coward
refers to:
http://tinyurl.com/6c6as
Re # 121 (Belte’s appendectomy): This possible explanation for BELTRE’s “breakout year”, from someone on the Mariner Newsgroup:
he had the botched appendectomy that clearly affected 2001. It is entirely
possible that he got into a bad swing trying to compensate for some abdominal
muscle weakness post-surgery, and he didn’t figure that out until this year.
(BTW, recall that DIZZY DEAN supposedly injured his arm because he adjusted his pitching motion to compensate for the pain he was experiencing from another injury.)
Well, another way to think about it is that if he comes down, it’s “only” to about 30-35 homeruns and a .270-.280 average, and still in all likelihood with 90-110 home runs.
Just the power alone would be sorely needed on the team; with the glove, you’re paying a Seattle premium for a good 3B, which you need anyway. And if he approaches last year again (which I bet he will, at least once…..)
Hey I’d rather see $13M go to a 3B to hit .280 35HR, 95RBI(low numbers for Beltre) than $3M to see a .200 5HR 35RBI like Speizio. And for a Neyer to say that Beltre may only help the M’s win a couple more games, I highly doubt it. Look at the difference in numbers, when you add those to the difference with Sexson now at first from Olured’s .220 5HR 50RBI, plus hopefully Lopez improvement over Aurilla, a better season from Boone, you’d have to think we’d win more than just a couple more games a year. I dont’ believe in those formulas of “oh he drove in 25 more runs than last years starter, that equals 2 more wins for 2005.” NO, otherwise why give Beltre $10M more a year than Speizio if it will only win you a few more games. It doesn’t work that way, now every single game in every situation we are better in with defense at the corners and with two big bats. You can’t tell me that will only help us improve ten games or so. All 162 games are influenced for the better than last year.
One thing about the number of wins is that we have a new manager and that should count for several wins that Melvin cost.
I know this thread is dead, but I just have to say it warms my heart when I look at the MSNBC Baseball page and the “Ask the Expert” headline is: Braves, Mariners, Yanks making all the right moves — there’s a threesome seldom mentioned in quite that way ever, let alone the offseason. Imagine piping that back to an M’s fan 10 years ago…