Game 26, Mariners at Astros
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Luis Garcia/Kent Emanuel, 11:10am
Last night’s loss was a tough one, in a sense. Any time the bullpen blows a lead late, and any time the M’s knock Zack Greinke out of the game and then *lose* is going to sting. This team isn’t good enough to overcome a lot of losses like that. But then, they’re not really trying to win anyway, so we’re free to pick through the wreckage of a single, mostly meaningless, April loss and find things to enjoy. Here’s mine: Justin Dunn is bizarrely good now.
I don’t mean it’s bizarre how dominant, how amazing he is. I watched deGrom last night, and Justin Dunn isn’t anywhere near that level. What I mean is that Justin Dunn has fixed the weird control gremlins that plagued his first season and his first game of this season, and he’s become a guy who can reliably keep the M’s in the game. And the way he does that – THAT’S what’s bizarre. Dunn has now tossed over 70 innings in the big leagues. That’s not a lot by any stretch, but it’s spread over three seasons and is not exactly nothing, either. His career BABIP is now .181. *.181!* That’s…that’s kind of insane.
Long-time readers here, and I’d put myself in this category, remember that one of things this blog talked a lot about oh…15 years ago or so, was that Jarrod Washburn was being overvalued by the M’s due to a low BABIP. Sure, he had a low BABIP a few years with the Angels, but that’s not something the pitcher controls – he’ll come to Seattle and regress, and the team won’t know why. Well, he kept it low his first two years here, and then when it crept up towards .300, he was done – not only in Seattle, but in MLB. The point is, this place had kind of an editorial line on BABIP. Justin Dunn would be seen as the luckiest bad pitcher in the game.
But I’m not here to bury Dunn, I’m here to bury the old editorial line. I don’t think this is sustainable, exactly, as Justin Dunn’s BABIP is *the lowest in MLB history* for anyone with at least 50 innings. There are only 4 players with a BABIP below .215 over that many innings. Two were forgettable relievers, and the other is the Astros’ Cristian Javier, whom the M’s just saw a few days ago. But even Javier’s above .200. We’re in uncharted territory here. So yes, it won’t stay *this* low, but would you take a Cristian Javier-type outcome for Dunn, particularly after his first start this year?
Part of my renewed optimism is that we’ve learned a heck of a lot since Washburn came north about BABIP and the control that pitchers have over it. Pace DIPS theory of 20 years ago, pitchers definitely can influence it, as studies from Mike Fast and others have found. Now, to be clear, the way Dunn is going about it is a bit different. He’s not reliably avoiding hard contact. He’s pretty middle-of-the-road there. But it seems like his fastball is just *odd* enough that batters are split between topping it and getting underneath the ball. Not enough to create a bunch of infield flies, but enough to produce solid fly balls to the outfield – but not more than that. Can he keep it up? I mean, stranger things have happened, I guess, and a recurrence of the control problems would make his BABIP less valuable (because batters could get on base another, easier, way). But a version of Dunn with a BABIP consistently in the .250 range (in other words, dramatically worse than he’s done thus far) would have real value for a middle/bottom of the rotation guy.
Today, the M’s face another Astros prospect starter, this time Luis Garcia. Garcia made the jump from high-A to the big leagues last year, as the Astros had a wave of pitcher injuries and departures, and he pitched pretty well. He overcome some wildness – wildness that he’d shown in the minors – and didn’t really miss a ton of bats, but he rode a…freakishly low BABIP to low runs-allowed totals. So far, so Cristian Javier. And really, the similarities don’t end there. Garcia throws a four-seam fastball at 93 from a below-6-foot release point, generating 9″ or so of “rise.” He throws a good, hard, change with lots of armside run (unlike the fastball, which is straight) and which dips below the fastball’s plane. Then, to complement that, a breaking ball with lots of GLOVEside run and sink. Garcia has a cutter as well that stays straight, but dives down compared to the fastball, so he’s got the full range of armside, gloveside, and no movement pitches. This is pretty much exactly what we talked about with Javier the other day, and at least a bit, with Dunn. The fastball has sneaky rise for a pitch that’s not thrown over the top or even really 3/4, and then the breaking stuff sweeping across the zone might heighten the confusion. It’s the same basic repertoire that we saw from Jose Urquidy, too, though Urquidy’s release point is slightly higher. The Astros have a “type.” Whether that’s a type to target in international free agency, or a type to mold through player development, I don’t know.
Reminds me of something I talked about years ago: the Yankees type. It’s essentially the same formula, with the same shape fastball and then a change with lots of armside run and just a ton of breaking balls across the zone. Luis Severino rode it to Cy Young votes, and David Robertson used his cutter to essentially fit the pattern, but we’ve seen it from everyone from Domingo German to Nick Rumbelow.
Lefty Kent Emanuel is also listed as a probable. The rookie made his debut the other day and threw 8 2/3 innings in relief for his first MLB win. He gave up only 2 runs to the Angels, striking out 5. He throws a sinker, change, and slider, and unlike Garcia, Javier, and Urquidy, doesn’t get a ton of fly ball contact. He’s a ground ball guy, and that showed in his debut. Drafted in 2013, Emanuel has had a long, slow climb through the Astros system, finishing with parts of three years in the hitter-friendly PCL, including the scarred wasteland that was the PCL in 2019. After missing very few bats and getting hit hard, something seemed to click for him in 2019 – perhaps the only pitcher alive who had fond memories of pitching in the PCL in 2019. He throws about 91, and gets lots of horizontal movement on his stuff, so this is probably a decent pairing of probable pitchers – a hard, 94mph arrow-straight righty followed by the 91mph running sinkerballer lefty.
1: Haggerty, LF
2: Seager, 3B
3: France, 2B
4: Marmolejos, DH
5: White, 1B
6: Crawford, SS
7: Moore, RF
8: Trammell, CF
9: Murphy, C
SP: Kikuchi
Kyle Lewis is getting a scheduled off day, so nothing nefarious there. Mitch Haniger is again out of the line-up, though things don’t sound too serious. The news is less good on Marco Gonzales, who’s just been placed on the IL with forearm tightness, which is one of those innocuous sounding injuries that never fail to scare the crap out of me. Remember, that was the initial diagnosis for James Paxton. It may just be exactly what they say it is, but the overlap between “forearm tightness” and elbow problems simply can’t be ignored. The M’s have activated Domingo Tapia.
The Strangest Draft Preview Yet: MLB 2020 Amateur Draft
It’s not really a full draft, more of a draftlet, a somewhat immoral amuse bouche, a well-produced spectacle and haphazard “we’re making this up as we go” event. Instead of 40 rounds, this year’s draft will span just 5, with 160 picks in total. Still, this is an influx of new talent to the league, and as we’ve done since 2012, I’ll preview the draft at a high level with old friend Chris Crawford of NBC Sports and Rotoworld (follow him on Twitter for draft info, Sonics nostalgia, and more). The world is on fire, there’s no baseball season, many of these draft prospects had their seasons wiped away. This is uncharted territory, but it feels almost comforting to ask draft questions in June, so let’s get to it:
1: What was the thinking on the depth/quality of this draft class back in the before-times before the pandemic?
On paper, it looked good. I still think it looks good. This is one of the better groups of collegians I can remember; maybe the best since 2011. The prep side is considerably weaker, and unfortunately, those preps didn’t really get a chance to prove much because of the pandemic. That’s not to say it is barren, but it’s definitely one of the weaker groups I can remember — particularly in terms of pitching. Having said that, this is still a strong group because the college side is good enough to make up for the lake of high school upside.
Is this a case of star-power at the top, or just depth from 1 through, uh, pick 160? And this relates to the prep weakness: would we expect very few preps to sign?
A combination of both. Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin are both legit 1.1 guys and there are several college hurlers not far from that. And yes: I’d expect very few preps to sign.
2: If you were working for a team, how do you even approach this? You’ve had scouts not scouting for a while. I assume this tilts things towards college players, where at least there are a few years of stats? Or not really?
It’s a tough question to answer. I’d definitely lean heavier on college with a track record, but it would probably depend on where I’m picking. It could be a chance for teams picking later to procure those prep talents that would have gone higher if there were more looks. Ultimately I’m still going to take best player available — goodness knows how many times I’ve used that phrase in these previews — but there’s a good chance that my BPA might be a college guy if only because I know more. Sometimes mystery is overrated.
You’ve probably seen the report from RJ Anderson who said some teams may punt the draft, and pick a HS player they have no intention of signing. Is that one response to the uncertainty around this draft, or does that have more to do with teams suddenly crying poverty ahead of CBA negotiations?
It’s probably a combination of both. Owners have a hard enough time paying players who won’t contribute a couple years from now; paying them with this much uncertainty probably ruffles some feathers. Ultimately I don’t think we’ll see any team actually punt, but, it can’t be completely ruled out.
3: There are a few players whose stature has risen due to social media, especially Pitching Ninja. How has his viral fame boosted Luke Little’s draft stock, and how do teams deal with pop-up guys who get internet famous like this?
I haven’t heard much about Little in this last month. As to your larger question, I think there aren’t as many “pop-up” guys on the internet anymore, just because these area guys are able to see most of the prospects. Not saying it doesn’t happen, but these men/woman are really good, and they generally find what is out there with a few exceptions. The pop-ups are really for us common folk, but the area scouts usually know who is out there.
4: We’ve talked a bit about sports tech like Rapsodo, but how is it changing the draft? Is sharing data from wearable tech or other devices helping teams discover talent, or is it just providing more detailed info on the players teams were already following?
Probably closer to the latter, but it’s certainly playing a part. Spin rate is becoming more and more important with pitchers, and of course being able to more easily quantify stuff like bat speed and angle all matter, too. It’s still mostly about if a kid can play or not, but having some data to back up an opinion certainly doesn’t hurt; especially with kids facing off against lesser competition.
5: What will be the impact on college baseball of this draft? We’ve seen some programs eliminated, but there should be a lot of seniors (hopefully) playing next year.
It’s hard to answer that question, but it’s going to be fascinating — for lack of a better term — to see what happens here. There are only so many spots in the draft, and those who aren’t drafted can only sign for $20,000 this summer. There’s also only so many spots for these players to come back as you mention because of scholarship limitations and just the flat-out elimination of programs. Simply put, this is going to be rough, and it’s not just the pandemic that created this situation.
6: Showcase events for high schoolers have been proliferating, another thing we’ve talked about in the past. Those, too, have been shelved this year. What can scouts do to find or evaluate HS talent in the absence of these high-profile tournaments/showcases? What sorts of networks (coaches? training facilities?) can scouts rely on this year?
It’s going to be tough. It’s going to be based a lot on the small amount of information they have, and a lot of networking, as you mention. It just can’t replace the feeling of seeing a player participate in a “real” situation, however, and it’s why several prep players that likely would have been first-round picks end up going the junior college route or signing with four-year schools. It’s hard to get a feel for a 17-18 year old player anyway. With this little of a look? Best of luck.
7: The Mariners pick 6th, and have about $10 million to spend. Who do they target in the first round?
College, college, college. The Mariners are college-heavy early on, anyway. That’s certainly not going to change. The name I hear most often talked about is Nick Gonzales; a middle-infielder who has put up monster numbers at New Mexico State that probably needs to move to second base at the highest level. Max Meyer and Reid Detmers are also strong possibilities; Meyer is a right-hander out of Minnesota who has outstanding stuff but size concerns, while Detmers is your atypical left-hander who shouldn’t need much time to develop. If someone like Emerson Hancock or Asa Lacy slipped, those are possibilities, as well. One way or another, Seattle should get a good one.
How do guys like Lacy and Meyer compare to the top college arms of recent years, like Casey Mize, Alek Manoah, Nick Lodolo, and maybe Logan Gilbert?
I don’t think any arm in this class is as good as Mize. but I would take those arms along with Hancock over the arms you mentioned. At least without the benefit of hindsight. I may be overselling it, but I am a big fan of this group of pitchers.
8: The M’s have preferred pitching in recent drafts. Do you expect that to continue?
Yep. I think part of that has to do with it being the strength of this draft? But also I just think it’s the organizational mantra right now. Even if they do take Gonzales in the first round, I would imagine it won’t take them long to add a pitcher or three to this limited class.
9: Forget this year’s draft class: the suspension of the season seems like it’d have a big impact on young players for many years. Everyone, from HS underclassmen to young players at the big league level are losing out on important development due to Covid-19. What does this do to a player 5-6 years down the road? Are these worries overblown – is playing actual games less important than other aspects of training/preparation?
I don’t think it can be overstated, to be honest. Look, there’s a lot of things you can simulate now, and training regiments get better and better. You cannot replace the experience that comes from games. You just can’t. It’s not a death sentence, but prospects are going to be behind the eight ball because of this, I don’t think there’s any question. Allow me to be unprofessional for a moment: This all sucks. It really, really sucks.
10: Any local players who figure to hear their name called this year?
I can’t see any preps from this year going in the first five rounds, but could see a couple of local college arms. Stevie Emmanuel from UW is a 6-foot-5 right-hander who can get his fastball into the mid 90s and shows a pretty good breaking-ball when he’s at his best. The guy I’d target from the Huskies, however, is Braiden Ward. Some questions about how much offensive upside he has, but think of a faster Braden Bishop. A much faster Braden Bishop, in fact. Scouts are mixed on him as a pro prospect, but I could see him being a very solid fourth outfielder — maybe a starter if the hit tool can be even average.
_________________________________________________________
The MLB draft kicks off today at 4pm, with the first round (including the first Competitive Balance round) today on MLB Network, and the balance coming tomorrow. The M’s have one pick today, the #6 overall pick (you could, if you wanted, say that the M’s are the #6 org today), and then the #43 pick tomorrow along with pick #64 in the second Competitive Balance round, compensation from their trade of Omar Narvaez.
Finally, Black Lives Matter.
[Edit to add: the M’s first pick, and #6 overall, is U. of Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock.
Check out the FB/CH combo here. Touches high-90s. Great sophomore season last year, and had 34 Ks to 3 BB in 24 IP this year.]
Game 5, Mariners at Angels
Yovani Gallardo vs. Jesse Chavez, 7:07pm
I’m guessing that both the M’s and Angels come into this three game set in a foul mood. The M’s finally won a game, but it took a 9th inning rally against a great closer to do it; their line-up did not inspire a lot of confidence against the Astros surprisingly stout pitching. The Angels come in at 2-2, but can’t be happy with that. They performed the almost cliched trick of victimizing the Athletics’ bullpen back in the 2nd game, then lost Garrett Richards to injury in the 3rd – a scene that’s nearly as familiar as an Oakland reliever meltdown. Then, they were held in check by Andrew Triggs and the A’s yesterday. Both teams are staring up at an Astros club that’s at least as good as advertised.
Richards gets an MRI today, so we’ll see if the Angels week gets any worse. As it is, they’re going with reliever-turned-starter-then-back-to-relieving-and-whoopsadoodle-let’s-try-starting-again right-hander Jesse Chavez. The M’s saw him a lot when he was with the A’s, but it’s possible he’ll be using a different approach now. The A’s in the early part of this decade had some success teaching pitchers a cutter or, even better, a cutter and sinker, and giving them a very different arsenal. Brandon McCarthy was perhaps the most famous of these reclamation projects, but Chavez was another. He’d been a surprisingly ineffective reliever for several teams, but became a reliable #3-4 starter 7 years into his big league career in 2014. He maintained that effectiveness in 2015, putting in two full seasons with sub-4 FIPs and nearly 4 total WAR. Then, the A’s flipped him for reliever Liam Hendriks, and the Jays moved him back to the bullpen, where a bout of HR trouble nuked his effectiveness. This year, the Angels moved him back to the rotation, and as a guy capable of getting lots of fly ball contact, you can see why: he’ll play more than half of his games in parks that suppress fly ball contact.
In Oakland, the cutter seemed to be the solution to his persistent platoon splits. We’ve mentioned the spectrum of cutters, with some with slower speeds and lots of break being rebranded sliders, and others, like Kenley Jansen’s or Jesse Chavez’s acting like straight fastballs. Chavez pitched off of his cutter in Oakland – it was his primary fastball, and had nearly the same speed and almost the same movement as his four-seam. It had a bit less vertical rise, but like the four-seam, it’s been easy for batters to elevate. He even uses it the same way as his primary fastball: he keeps it away to RHBs and LHBs alike, and stays around the zone instead of elevating it or burying it low. It’s been a reliable pitch for Chavez, which is why it’s noteworthy that he spent this spring using it much LESS than he has before. Who knows what to make of two spring training starts, but he looked a lot more conventional, pitching off of a four-seam and sinker and mixing in the cutter instead of using the cutter as his primary pitch. Maybe he was working on things. Maybe he thought it was time to try something new, particularly after getting hit hard as a reliever in 2016. In his tiny-sample 2017, he all but abandoned the cutter to lefties, using much more of his change-up. That pitch has always been his weakest behind his fastballs and curve, so it’ll be interesting tonight to see if he’s got more confidence in it, or if his different approach this spring was just tinkering. I can imagine that Chavez using more four-seamers, particularly up in the zone, might change his batted-ball profile a bit (though the cutter was never a ground ball pitch), and it may give hitters who’ve seen him before (like most of the M’s) a new wrinkle.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, LF
SP: Gallardo
Please don’t be terrible, Yovani. Guillermo Heredia makes his first start, and Jarrod Dyson moves over to CF to give the struggling Leonys Martin a break.
The R’s were rained out. Check out the PCL preview below! Tony Zych will get an inning to start the game tonight, and then it’ll be the opening day starters: Sam Gaviglio for Tacoma and Chris Stratton for Sacramento.
The Arkansas Travelers got a brilliant pitching performance from Andrew Moore, but couldn’t hold onto the lead as Corpus Christi edged them 2-1. Moore went 6 scoreless giving up just 1 hit and striking out 7. Blake Perry struggled in the 8th and Zac Curtis allowed two inherited runs to score, and that was that. Ian Miller had two hits including a triple. Tonight, it’s Max Povse on the mound against Kent Emmanuel, which sounds like the name of a parochial school.
Modesto was so excited to become an M’s affiliate that they didn’t want their first game in the system to end. They played 14 innings, ultimately winning a 3-2 decision over Lake Elsinore. The top of the line-up scuffled, with Braden Bishop and Eric Filia going a combined 0-11 with 5 Ks, but the bottom of the line-up bailed them out. Ricky Eusebio (batting 9th) and Gianfranco Wawoe (7th) both homered. Nick Neidert went 4 2/3, giving up 2 runs. The pitching performance of the night might have been 2B Jordan Cowan’s. Cowan, who hails from Covington, pitched two perfect innings in the 13-14th for the win. Pablo Lopez makes his first start tonight.
Clinton got roughed up by Kane County, 13-3. A 7-run first set the tone, as the Cougars battered Ljay Newsome. Newsome hung in and ended up pitching 4 innings with 5 Ks and 0 walks, but the LumberKings bats were quiet. Luis Liberato hit a three-run HR to get Clinton on the board, but then Kane County pulled away late off of Matt Clancy and Michael Koval. Danny Garcia, a lefty the M’s got in the 15th round last year out of Miami, starts tonight against mid-tier Diamondbacks prospect Jon Duplantier, a 3rd round pick out of Rice.
Game 146, Mariner at Angels
Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Jhoulys Chacin, 7:05pm
The M’s have won seven in a row, and that tends to amp up your emotional response to each event, but when’s the last time an M’s game was as much fun to watch as last night’s? Every facet of the game, with the possible exception of defense (what the hell happened to you, Ketel Marte?), was clicking, and the result was not only an easy win over a rival, but a number of performances that offer a lot of hope for the future.
Obviously, the biggest takeaway was Taijuan Walker’s comfort and effectiveness, mixing three pitches in a way we’ve simply not seen before. For all the talk of mechanical tweaks, Walker remains metronome-like in terms of the movement he gets on his pitches. Any mechanical adjustment should impact either movement or velocity, and that’s just not what we’ve seen. Here’s Walker’s vertical movement over his career:
You’d expect more variance from game to game just due to pitch fx calibration (which Brooks largely corrects for) or just because Walker woke up 15 minutes earlier. Walker’s done a lot of things wrong in his MLB tenure, but he does not have a problem with repeating his delivery. It may be a bad delivery or a good one, but it IS consistent.
What hasn’t been consistent is his pitch mix. In my opinion, he’s been far too fastball-reliant, making it easier for batters to focus on location. To be fair to the M’s and Walker, a lot of that reliance was a product of poor secondary pitches. Coming up through the minors, I thought his curve could become a plus pitch. Many other observers came to the opposite conclusion, and suggested he scrap it for a cutter. I’ve seen the cutter in the minors and the majors, and I’ve simply never seen an average, let alone plus, pitch. This may be my own weird issue; some scouts raved about it when he’d first developed it, and it’s possible the real issue isn’t with the cutter, but overall consistency (though again, that seems unlikely to be his issue). Worse, whenever he DID throw the curve against big league hitters, it looked noticeably worse than it did in Tacoma. I’m assuming some of this was just rust – he’d focused so much on his fastball, the new cutter/slider thing, and his splitter, that the curve was an afterthought. That feedback loop built on itself, and you had games where he’d throw it once, or as he did against the Rays this year, not throw it at all. He’s thrown it less than 10% of the time this year, about the same as he did last year.
It wasn’t a great pitch, but it at least offered a change of pace. His splitter’s been hit fairly hard, too (7 HRs off of it this year), but no one would suggest he scrap it. What we saw last night was Walker in command of both the curve and the splitter. We’ve really never seen Walker command and actually utilize three pitches in a game. There’ve been games where he’s thrown a bunch of cutters, and games where he’s thrown a few dozen splitters, but these two things didn’t really overlap. Last night’s mix of – in rough terms – 50% FB, 25% CU and 25% CH/SP worked well, and they worked because he was able to throw them for strikes. The curve ball he struck out Trout on was a great example, and a great job by both Walker and Zunino to have the confidence to throw it in that situation.
The M’s clawed to within 2.5 games of the 2nd wild card, so this win came at an opportune time, and it helped the M’s chances, etc. It also gave me much more confidence – maybe too MUCH more confidence – in 2017. It must’ve felt incredible for Walker, too – remember that when he was sent down, the M’s called him out publicly, with Servais saying he needed to work deeper into games and compete more. I have a feeling Walker reminded Servais of that when he (successfully) lobbied to go back out in the 9th and go for the complete game.
The Angels were supposed to start Tyler Skaggs today, but he was scrapped, and Jhoulys Chacin, the ~ replacement-level innings-sponge will start instead. This’ll be Chacin’s 5th appearance against the M’s this year, and while he was very effective in his first 2, he’s been destroyed in the last two, giving up 9 runs and 14 hits in 8 2/3 IP. Chacin’s been particularly bad against left-handers this year; he’s been surprisingly decent against righties. The M’s seem well-positioned to take advantage, with both Seth Smith and Nori Aoki suddenly hot.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Martin, CF
8: Iannetta, C
9: Marte, SS
SP: Iwakuma
Everett lost the Northwest League Championship to Eugene last night, falling 2-1 thanks to another great game from lefty Manuel Rondon. Reggie McClain was the hard-luck loser, giving up both runs in 4 2/3 IP with 6 Ks. Congrats to the Emeralds.
Jackson’s story is a bit happier, as they took a 2-0 lead in the Southern League Championship series with a, er, 2-0 win. Brett Ash started and went 7 scoreless. Ryne Harper made it hold up with 2 shutout innings for the save. The big hit was a HR by Adam Law, a 3B the M’s picked up during the year. Guys like Ryne Harper and Law have really helped, and also highlight how active the M’s have been in making minor trades..wait…really? The M’s just sent Joe Wieland to Atlanta for a PTBNL. Yesterday, they sent Wade LeBlanc to Pittsburgh. Dipoto can’t stop.
The Midwest League Championship series kicks off today, with Clinton hosting the Great Lakes Loons, a Dodgers affiliate. Luiz Gohara takes the hill for Clinton opposite Jordan Sheffield, a 2016 draftee out of Vanderbilt with some pretty good blood lines. His father is Gary Sheffield, and his little brother Justus (who signed out of HS) was part of the big Andrew Miller deal this year.
Game 145, Mariners at Angels
Taijuan Walker vs. Alex Meyer, 7:05pm
It’s a late-season battle between two former top prospects whose stock has dropped of late!
I mentioned Alex Meyer in yesterday’s post, as he was a part of the deal that brought Ricky Nolasco to Anaheim. In addition to swapping back-of-the-rotation starters, the Twins and Angels also swapped hard-throwing enigmas who seemed destined for middle relief. Alex Meyer was a first-round pick by the Nationals who moved to the Twins in exchange for Denard Span. Meyer touched 98, and while he had control issues, he was a college arm and seemed to offer a limitless upside. In the Twins system, he posted gaudy K/9 ratios, but didn’t dominate thanks to a consistently-high BABIP and control problems. While he showed signs of improvement this year, shoulder pain’s limited him to just a handful of innings.
Despite being drafted a year later than Walker, Meyer’s 2 years older; he’ll turn 27 before next season. Physically, Meyer’s gigantic – he stands 6’9″ and at 225 pounds, is essentially what scouts have in mind when they talk about an ideal frame. Sure, sure, long limbed pitchers can have trouble repeating their delivery and all, but 6’9″ guys throwing 96 always seem to go higher in the draft than a 5’9″ guy throwing 96 “at max effort.” Meyer had a great junior season at the University of Kentucky, but struggled mightily with his control in his time there. Contrast this with Marcus Stroman, who K’d more and walked fewer and dominated at Duke and went in roughly the same draft slot a year later.
Meyer has a surprisingly low release point for a power-forward-shaped pitcher, so he doesn’t get a ton of vertical rise on his fastball. It’s got some horizontal movement, though, and it comes in at 96, touching 98-99. His primary breaking ball’s a curveball thrown at 85, and he’s also got a change-up. Despite the arm angle, his pitch mix looks like a fly-ball pitcher’s, and that’s what he’s been thus far in the majors (all of 9 IP!). Even in the minors, he’s been neutral- to fly-ball heavy. That plays well in Anaheim’s fly-ball suppressing park, and it *should* help with his long-standing BABIP problem. That hasn’t happened yet, as his BABIP’s been sky high thus far. That’s a problem that afflicted Taijuan Walker last year and, to a degree, James Paxton this year. I’d love to know more about how/why this can happen, and yes, I’m aware that “bad luck” is always a factor in a situation like this. But there’s no reason a guy like Meyer should give up so many hits – he *really* shouldn’t have in AA, but it’s still true in MLB.
1: Aoki, LF
2: Smith, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Zunino, C
7: Martin, CF
8: Vogelbach, 1B
9: Marte, SS
SP: Walker
Adam Lind’s injured finger gives Dan Vogelbach the opportunity to get his first MLB start. He pinch hit last night to make his MLB debut, hustled down the line to avoid a DP, but then made a really dumb out on the basepaths when he missed 2nd base trying to go 1st to 3rd.
In the minors last night, the big story was the elimination of the Bakersfield Blaze. The team that’s called Sam Lynn home for 75 years lost their Cal League series against Visalia and will be contracted. Such a sad situation. Full credit for a great broadcast in surreal circumstances to Dan Besbris and David Gascon.
Jackson won game 1 of their series against Mississippi, with Tyler O’Neill leading the charge with 2 hits including a double. Andrew Moore was solid once again, tossing 6 IP and yielding 2 runs with 2 strikeouts and 0 walks. Brett Ash starts game 2 tonight against ex-Angels prospect and Alex Meyer 2.0, Sean Newcomb.
Clinton beat Peoria with a walk-off shutout (what else), 1-0 in 11 innings. Nick Neidert was the star of the show, pitching 7 scoreless with 9 Ks against 0 walkss and giving up just 3 hits. One of those hits was a lead-off double in the 5th, and after a wild pitch, the Kernels had a man on 3rd with no outs. Rayder Ascanio then made a pair of great plays at SS, and then Neidert got out of the inning with a pop-up. Ricky Eusebio’s single in the 11th scored Logan Taylor for the walk-off win. They’ll start the MWL championship series on Wednesday against either the Great Lakes Loons or the West Michigan White Caps.
Ljay Newsome gave up 0 HRs, just as I suggested, and dominated the Eugene Emeralds in Everett’s 7-1 win. Newsome K’d 6 in 6 IP and didn’t walk anyone. Eric Filia had 3 hits and 3 RBIs. Everett faces off with the Emeralds’ top starter, Manuel Rondon. Rondon’s yet another ex-Angels farmhand, who moved to the Cubs in a minor trade and took off this season, posting 1.10 ERA in 12 starts to take the NWL pitcher of the year honors. That said, he’s 21 and in short-season ball, so he doesn’t appear on the Cubs’ top prospect lists, but the lefty can apparently touch the mid-90s, so he may jump into the top 20 in an admittedly loaded system next year.
Minor League Playoff Preview
FIVE (5) of the M’s minor league affiliates kick off playoff series tonight, which is remarkable enough without even mentioning that their Arizona League team’s already wrapped up a championship and the Dominican League team just lost in their league’s semifinals a few days ago. You can find some great previews from outlets like MiLB.com, whose Southern League preview is excellent, and from the local papers, like Todd Milles’ Tacoma Rainiers-centric preview in the TNT or from the broadcasters, like this great post from the Rainiers’ RG, Mike Curto. What follows here is somewhat duplicative, but I thought I’d pick out some things to watch for (the games should be on MiLB.tv if you’ve got it) and describe how each high team and their big league club approaches the playoffs in the minors.
That last point’s kind of a big one, as in some sense the minor league playoffs interact with and interfere with another big goal, at least for the upper-level teams. In the past week, we’ve seen Nashville (another club in the PCL postseason) lose a decent chunk of its starting rotation, as the A’s have promoted Daniel Mengdon, Raul Alcantara (who made his big league debut a few days ago), and Jharel Cotton, who’ll make his big league debut tonight. The A’s are trying to figure out who will be competing for rotation spots next year, and have decided that getting them big league experience is more important than trying to win a minor league title. Of course, this problem (or balancing act) is more acute for those teams that have a lot of 40-man roster players, especially 40-man prospects. The M’s have a smattering of 40-man guys, from Cody Martin to Zach Lee to Dan Vogelbach, but have opted to keep them in Tacoma. By outrighting a number of others – Wade LeBlanc, Joe Wieland, Jarrett Grube – they took care of a good chunk of this “problem” weeks in advance.
With that, let’s take a quick look at the four highest-level series:
AAA Pacific Coast League
Teams: Tacoma vs. El Paso Chihuahuas (SD)
Best of 5 games
Tonight’s starters: Jarrett Grube (TAC) vs. Frank Garces (ELP)
Prospects: Dan Vogelbach (TAC), Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Carlos Asuaje (ELP)
This series had to happen. Way back in April, former Rainier Chris Taylor’s throw to first ended up plunking Chihuahuas’ mascot ‘Chico’. The feud escalated with twitter hijinx, Taylor ripping up a sign Chico held out, etc., and from there, the Rainiers found a rival in the two-year-old Padres affiliate. The pitching staff for both teams leans more towards org depth, as we see in tonight’s game, as minor league vet Jarrett Grube faces off with lefty Frank Garces, who spent some time in the Padres’ pen this year. Grube made the MLB bullpen for a few days before being outrighted back to Tacoma, while Garces was mediocre as a LOOGY and spot starter for San Diego. Garces throws in the high-80s and has a change and slider, but his big league role is limited: he’ll be a LOOGY or middle reliever, nothing more. Even in the minors, he’s struggled mightily against right-handers.
The Chihuahuas have a number of good position player prospects, as you’d expect from a team that’s made so many rebuilding-type trades over the past 12 months. The key ‘gets’ in the Craig Kimbrel, Carlos Asuaje and Manny Margot, are both playing in the series, but the Chihuahua’s biggest bat this year has been 2013 1st rounder Hunter Renfroe, who slugged 30 HRs. The Rainiers won the season series, for what that’s worth; the Rainiers dominated in April when the club had the aforementioned Taylor, Mike Zunino at catcher and James Paxton in the rotation. This series comes down to whether Tacoma’s experienced staff can handle El Paso’s pure talent/prospect advantage on the offensive side. One final note: Patrick Kivlehan spent much of the year in Tacoma, but is now a member of the Chihuahuas. Better not give them any inside intel.
Gametime tonight’s 5:30, and for the locals, the series shifts to Tacoma on Friday. Tickets are available here.
AA Southern League
Teams: Jackson vs. Montgomery Biscuits (TB)
Best of 5 games
Tonight’s starters: Andrew Moore (JAC) vs. Chih-Wei Hu (MON)
Prospects: Tyler O’Neill (JAC), Willy Adames, Jake Bauers, Brent Honeywell (MON)
Jackson absolutely dominated this series, winning 16 of 20 games against the Biscuits, on their way to the league’s best overall record. But the past few weeks belonged to Montgomery, as the Biscuits ended the year hot, while Jackson limped to the finish line with a 2-11 run in the last 13 games. In this series, both teams have excellent pitching, with the Generals employing the SL’s pitcher of the year in recently-returned-from-injury Ryan Yarbrough, while the Biscuits have the biggest pitching prospect in screwballer Brent Honeywell. Taylor Guerrieri and tonight’s starter, Chih-Wei Hu, give the Biscuits a potent 1-2-3 in the rotation.
Hu joined the Rays org from Minnesota, in a trade for RP Kevin Jepsen. Hu led the league in ERA, but isn’t an overpowering guy, but he throws 4 pitches and has solid command. That sounds a lot like Andrew Moore, another guy with solid low-minors results, but who doesn’t light up the radar gun or make scouts drool. For the position players, the Generals are paced by league MVP, Tyler O’Neill. The Canadian had a jaw-dropping year despite a late slump, and he’s clearly the guy Montgomery will be careful with. The Biscuits counter with SS Willy Adames, 3B Patrick Leonard (a part of the old Wil Myers/James Shields trade) and Jake Bauers, a corner IF/OF guy with a great batting eye.
Gametime: 4:05 Pacific
A+ California League
Teams: Bakersfield vs. San Jose (SF)
Best of 5 games
Tonight’s starters: Osmer Morales (BAK) vs. Jordan Johnson (SJ)
Prospects: Zack Littell (BAK), Thyago Vieira (BAK), Drew Jackson, (BAK) n/a (SJ)
Soooo, San Jose. They finished the year with a losing record, but snuck into the playoffs with a wildcard. Their best players and prospects – including 1B Chris Shaw and P Andrew Suarez – ended the year in AA, leaving a staff that looks…not good. I know I’ve probably doomed the Blaze, but on paper, Bakersfield’s just better. I’m not even sure who to highlight here. Jason Forjet? Jordan Johnson? Pick one. The prospects have all long since moved on.
Bakersfield started well, and then got an influx of talent from the dominant Clinton Lumberkings, including SP Zack Littell, who dominated in his time in the California League. Drew Jackson didn’t have a big year, but he’s still a great defensive SS with good bat-to-ball skills, and the guy who led the NWL in batting a year ago. Of note, reliever/closer Thyago Vieira has apparently added some serious gas to his fastball, as he was recently seen touching 100mph. Minor league vet Kyle Petty’s a solid, if streaky, bat at 1B and 2B Gianfranco Wawoe’s had a solid bounce-back year after a mediocre one in Clinton last year.
A Midwest League
Teams: Clinton vs. Peoria (STL)
Best of 5 games
Tonight’s starters: Nick Neidert (CLI) vs. Jake Woodford (PEO)
Prospects: Alex Jackson (CLI), Magneuris Sierra (PEO), Woodford (PEO)
Clinton had the biggest turnaround of any minor league team this year, adding nearly 40 games to their 2015 win total. The pitching staff led the charge, as the Lumberkings tossed *19* shutouts on the year to pace the MWL. That said, like any minor league team, they’ve seen a lot of turnover, so guys like Zack Littell and Art Warren aren’t around anymore. They haven’t missed much, though, as tonight’s starter Nick Neidert, the M’s first selection in the 2015 draft, has filled the breach well. A few picks before Neidert, the Cardinals took Jake Woodford, and he’s pitched well too, currently ranking as the Cards #13 prospect.
The big position player prospects in this series are a couple of outfielders: underachieving but incredibly talented Alex Jackson, who put together a decent campaign but still struggles to make contact at times, and Magneuris Sierra, a toolshed CF prospect for the Peoria Chiefs. Jackson and Sierra are both just 20, are both top 10 prospects, but have very different games. Jackson’s power is now his best tool, while Sierra’s more of a speedster with gap power. Sierra’s average was over .300, but without a lot of pop, his OPS ends up pretty similar to Jackson’s low-AVE., high SLG. approach.
Both teams excelled in the season’s first half, with Peoria winning the division by a nose over Clinton. But Clinton took off in the 2nd half while Peoria faded a bit, hurt by promotions to top players like 2B Dylan Tice.
Rainiers Opening Night
I know, I know: I just wrote a post about the minors, and the post in fact mentioned that tonight is opening day across the full-season leagues. But anyone who knows me or has read the blog for any length of time knows that I am, in Mike Curto’s perfect phrase, PCL for Life. At times in this rather lean decade for the big club I’ve felt more of a Rainiers fan than an M’s one – that’s where you get to see Ackley/Smoak/Montero *succeed* after all – and while this is and will always be a Mariners blog first and foremost, the Rainiers will always get a lot of attention. I spent years living within walking distance of Cheney Stadium, and it’s nights like this – it’s near 80, no clouds in the sky – that I most miss it. I’ll be up at some point in the opening series, but let’s take a look at the Rainiers in a bit more depth and talk about things to look for if you head to Tacoma for a game.
The rotation features James Paxton, Cody Martin, Adrian Sampson, Donn Roach and tonight’s starter, Joe Wieland. Of that group, only Adrian Sampson lacks MLB experience. Paxton’s got the most innings pitches, while Martin/Roach and Wieland have all pitched (very sparingly) for multiple big league clubs. Sampson was a mid-level prospect the M’s got from Pittsburgh in exchange for JA Happ, and he figures to get some friends and family to the games, as he went to Skyline HS in Sammamish and attended Bellevue College. Roach was the star of spring training coming out of the bullpen, but will stretch it out as a starter in the early going. Cody Martin made his debut out of the pen for Atlanta last year, got demoted, and was then traded to Oakland. As I mentioned when he was acquired, Oakland seemed to make some fairly big changes to his pitch mix, and the results were awful – like Roach, I’m really curious to see what and how he’s throwing in the early going.
I went over the IF and OF last night, and the question about Rob Brantly’s place on the roster’s been answered: the M’s released Steve Lerud to make room for Brantly. He’ll be Mike Zunino’s back-up. Via Mike Curto, here’s a great John McGrath column on the new player development group and their work with Zunino, Chris Taylor and James Paxton. It also covers the, uh, struggles the last group had in trying to make Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, etc. were consistent big leaguers. According to the column, Ackley in particular got tips from a variety of coaches and tried to incorporate all of them. The new group prioritizes the mental side, and they may have more of an organization-wide philosophy on hitting, if that “hitting summit” during the off season is any indication.
Here’s tonight’s opening day line-up. With the M’s traveling, it’s the perfect time to head to Cheney or just tune in to the game here , on 850am in the south sound, or via MiLB.tv. Game time is 7:05pm
1: Boog Powell, CF
2: Shawn O’Malley, 2B
3: Stefen Romero, RF
4: Efren Navarro, 1B
5: Mike Zunino, C
6: Mike Baxter, DH
7: Ed Lucas, 3B
8: Chris Taylor, SS
9: Daniel Robertson, LF
SP: Wieland
I didn’t mention Ed Lucas in yesterday’s post, so let’s talk about him: Lucas was a long-time Royals farmhand who’s moved through the Braves/Angels/Rangers and Marlins systems. He’s mostly a 3B, but has displayed a lot of versatility: in his extended call-up with the Marlins in 2013 and 2014, he played SS, OF, 3B and some 2B. He’s got good control of the strike zone, but very little power, which makes him eerily similar to tonight’s 2B, Shawn O’Malley.
Ok, so what’s the PCL look like this year? And when should you come out to a game? Let’s take a look at some of the clubs visiting Tacoma this year:
Read more
Revisiting the M’s Top Prospects of 2006
I mentioned it in a game thread a few days ago, but seriously, you really have to read this Sam Miller piece at BP that looks at what’s become of the Rays top 30 prospects ten years later. It’s the fourth in a series of posts Sam’s done, detailing the outcome of the top farm system in baseball ten years previously. What’s fascinating is not just that many prospects bust, but, and this should’ve been obvious, what teams DO with their prospects vary widely. The Brewers group of 2003 (a group put together largely by Jack Zduriencik) got solid production from the very top of their list – headed by Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy and Rickie Weeks – but struggled to do much with everyone else, and if that isn’t some pretty big foreshadowing of the Zduriencik era in Seattle, I don’t know what is. The Angels did a bit better *despite* the fact that their top prospects at the time – Dallas McPherson and Brandon Wood – are legendary prospect busts. But they had a deep system, and thus got plenty of production from Kendrys Morales, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and the like, and they made a few smaller moves with that cohort, including flipping Kendrick for today’s pre-arb starter, Andrew Heaney. The Rays article represents a very different approach. Instead of keeping their top prospects together, they were very selective about the players they kept, and after that, traded liberally with anyone who’d listen. What this means is that, even ten years later, the Rays still have a bunch of prospects and cost-controlled players they acquired in exchange for earlier prospects, who they acquired in exchange for the prospects on that original 2006 list. As a result, they’ve put up far more WAR as a result of their original list, many of their *current* prospects are in the organization as a result of the original prospects.
The Rays were remarkable in that they ID’d the right players to sign (Evan Longoria) and the right players to sell high on (Delmon Young), and then they kept parlaying one set of acquisitions into another, turning Delmon Young into Matt Garza into Chris Archer. The Angels weren’t quite as adept as that, but their deep system still provided the basis for 5-6 years of contention, thanks to the infield tandem of Kendrick and Aybar. So, what would the M’s look like in this kind of analysis? What would we learn, apart from the basic fact that baseball, like life, is pain, and that point-in-time errors cascade through the seasons, bringing old ghosts and new torments together in a Grand Guignol of… sorry, got a bit carried away. I’m not going to lie: doing this means reliving some of the most painful, most self-destructive moments in recent M’s history. This might hurt a bit.
Read more
Digging Deeper Into Prospect Lists
The Trade That Wasn’t has focused a lot of attention on the M’s prospects and how teams value assets like Taijuan Walker or Nick Franklin. It’s worth remembering that the prospect valuations Victor Wang did back in 2007-08 and that have been updated many times by many people since then use prospect rankings as their raw material. That is, theoretical value is largely determined by a prospect’s place on a list like the BA Top 100. They’re they source of a lot of frustration, excitement and all-around interest; we know we shouldn’t, but many of us can get into long arguments about the ordinal ranking of a team’s 5th best RHP.
I mentioned the differences in several of the big prospect rankings back on New Year’s Eve. Today, we look deeper into the lists with Conor Glassey of Baseball America and Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus. As authors of two of the lists I looked at, they can explain how they do what they do using the M’s system as an example. This is an article about how others write lists, and if that’s too meta for you, I understand. But I hope this conversation sheds some light on prospects and player development in general, as well as add something to what you know about several M’s prospects.
Read more
Hector Noesi May Be Better Than We Realize
Because The Big Trade sends two players in each direction, it’s only natural to pair those players off and view the deal as essentially Pineda-for-Montero and Campos-for-Noesi. And that’s generally how this deal has been analyzed, including by me. The talk surrounding this trade has been almost entirely about Montero’s future value and where he’ll fit into the roster long term, while Noesi has been relegated to the backburner. The only attention he’s really gotten has been tied to lamenting the loss of Campos, a personal favorite of a lot of people who follow the M’s minor leagues closely.
So, over the last 24 hours or so, I’ve done a lot of digging on Noesi, trying to ascertain exactly what the M’s got along with Montero by surrendering Michael Pineda. I knew he was a mid-tier Yankees prospect that was generally talked about as a potential #5 starter in New York, but beyond that, I didn’t really know that much. So, I started asking around, talking to people in the game who knew Noesi pretty well. And, the more I talked to these folks, the more I realized that Noesi should be viewed as a lot more than just a throw-in arm. In fact, there are legitimate reasons to be pretty excited about his inclusion in the deal.
With any pitcher, the foundation of his value is in what he throws, so let’s start with Noesi’s stuff. In last year’s Baseball America write-up (where he rated as the Yankees seventh best prospect), John Manuel wrote that Noesi:
“…pounds the zone with an 89-93 mph fastball, reaching as high as 96. His maintains his velocity deep into games, and his fastball has some run and tail. Noesi’s No. 2 pitch is a changeup with similar action, though he doesn’t quite command it like his fastball. His curveball and slider remain below-average offerings, but he flashes the ability to spin the ball.”
Thanks to the wonders of Pitch F/x data, and the Yankees decision to carry him as their long reliever for most of the 2011 season, we can actually confirm the validity of what Manuel wrote. Here’s a plot of all of Noesi’s pitches last year, broken out by velocity and horizontal movement, which makes identifying the different pitch clusters quite easy.
Just like John wrote, Noesi mixed in four different pitches – the algorithm separated out his fastballs into two-seam and four-seam varieties, but he doesn’t throw a true sinker, so don’t pay too much attention to the blue/green differences there – and generally threw them for strikes. As for velocity, the data backs up Manuel’s assessment there as well:
He generally sat in the 89-96 range with his fastball last year, but his average fastball velocity was 93.3, a few ticks higher than reported in his BA writeup. This could easily be attributed to pitching out of the bullpen, where velocity spikes are common and expected, but the Yankees didn’t use Noesi as a typical relief pitcher. He was their long guy, relied on to eat up innings when a starter didn’t get very deep into the ballgame, and was regularly asked to stay on the mound for multiple innings at a time.
In fact, Noesi averaged 8.2 batters faced and 32 pitches per appearance, and threw 40 or more pitches in 10 of his 30 outings. While that isn’t nearly the same workload as a starting pitcher, and we should expect his average fastball to dip as a starting pitcher, the difference shouldn’t be as stark as it would be in converting a reliever who is used in a more traditional one-inning role. And even those pitchers generally only see a drop in velocity of about 1 MPH or so when converting back to a starter.
His longest appearance of the year – a six inning, 71 pitch outing against Boston in June – backs up that assumption.
He began the game at 93-95 and sat there for the first 20 pitches or so, then dropped back into the 90-93 range for the rest of the night. Overall, his fastball averaged 92.6 MPH that evening, so his velocity is not just a product of being used out of the bullpen. He has a good arm and can get it up to the plate with some oomph.
Despite above average velocity and good fastball command, the knocks against him as a prospect have been related to the quality of his two breaking pitches – neither his slider or his curveball are seen as a true out-pitch. So, the overall package of plus command of one good pitch and then a collection of okay secondary offerings leads to projections as a back-end starter, a guy who can throw strikes but lacks the repertoire to dominate hitters.
I’m not going to argue with that assessment, as it seems to be the general consensus among those who have watched him pitch a good deal. However, in talking to folks who have seen Noesi a lot, several made the point that this skillset is often undervalued in prospecting circles – where upside is king and lower ceiling guys often fly under the radar – and that Noesi could step into a Major League rotation tomorrow and be a quality starter.
In fact, when asking for pitchers that Noesi reminded them of, a few names popped up that show just how large the divide can occasionally be between hype and results for this pitcher type. One front office executive said that he saw Noesi as a similar pitcher to Daniel Hudson, while a scout threw out the name Cory Luebke.
Neither of these guys were ever projected as front-line starters due to their reliance on good command of a solid fastball with secondary stuff that needed work (sound familiar?), but both got themselves to the Majors by racking up solid K/BB ratios that were built more on avoiding walks than missing a ton of bats. However, since arriving in the Majors, Luebke and Hudson have been two of the better young pitchers in baseball, translating their minor league success into quality Major League performances.
Another person in the game that I talked to pointed out that the Twins have been building quality pitching staffs for years through a never-ending assembly line of Hector Noesi style pitchers. He pointed to Scott Baker (another guy who never appeared in Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects) as an example of just how effective this skillset can be. And he’s absolutely right – a look at the results of team pitching staffs over the last 10 years show that the Twins have walked the fewest batters (by a mile) of any team in baseball, and their staffs have generally been populated by the likes of Baker, Brad Radke, Kevin Slowey, Carl Pavano, and Kyle Lohse. Noesi throws harder than those guys, but the general approach to pitching is pretty similar. Pound the zone, change speeds, mix pitches, and succeed by never walking anyone.
It’s not as sexy of a skillset as Pineda’s “haha you can’t hit this” approach, but the sport is filled with guys who are succeeding as Major League starters without sitting in the mid-90s. The lack of a true dominating out-pitch means that Noesi isn’t going to turn into Clayton Kershaw, but these types of pitchers are often more valuable than they’re given credit for.
For instance, Baker/Hudson/Luebke have pitched 1,350 innings in the big leagues and have combined to be worth +26.5 WAR, or +3.5 WAR per 180 innings pitched. For comparison, Michael Pineda was worth +3.4 WAR in 171 innings last year. Yeah.
We shouldn’t just take these three examples and extrapolate Noesi as a +3.5 win pitcher for 2012, but when people talk about this skillset having limited upside, realize that what they’re saying is that these pitchers max out as All-Stars instead of Cy Young winners. There is a cap on how good Noesi can be, but that cap isn’t set at league average starter as many would have you believe.
Go look through last year’s pitching leaderboards. There’s 35 pitchers on that front page, each of whom posted a WAR of +3.6 or higher in 2011. Yeah, there’s a bunch of guys who throw hard and have nasty breaking balls, but there’s also Dan Haren (never a BA Top 100 guy, and classified as a “middle of the rotation starter” when BA rated him the Carindals #1 prospect in 2003), Doug Fister, Ian Kennedy, James Shields, Daniel Hudson, and Brandon McCarthy. All of these guys put themselves on the map by pounding strikes without dominating stuff and all were painted with the same “limited upside” brush. They’re all evidence that this skillset can turn out to be more than just another generic #5 starter.
And, while these examples are obviously the best case scenario for Noesi, we can’t overlook the fact that he pitched pretty well for the Yankees last year. Again, yes, caveats about pitching low leverage innings out of the bullpen, but he posted a 4.02 xFIP while pitching in the AL East as a rookie. Or, how about this fun fact – opposing batters made contact with 79.9% of pitches that Noesi threw. Here’s the complete list of AL starting pitchers (minimum 50 IP) who had contact rates between 79.5% and 80.5%:
Jered Weaver: 79.5%
Charlie Furbush: 79.6%
Kyle Drabek: 79.6%
Scott Baker: 79.7%
Philip Humber: 79.8%
C.J. Wilson: 79.8%
Felix Hernandez: 80.1%
Jon Lester: 80.1%
Edwin Jackson: 80.4%
Trevor Cahill: 80.5%
By the way, Haren just missed the cut at 79.3%, and if we expanded it out a little more, we’d run into Clay Buchholz (80.7%), Ervin Santana (80.9%), and David Price (81.0%). Besides Furbush (HR problems) and Drabek (BB problems), that’s a pretty sweet group to be keeping company with. Obviously, there’s a lot more to judging a pitcher than just contact rate, but it’s his questionable ability to miss bats in the big leagues that’s always been the thing that has been held against him. Given how he performed in the Majors as a rookie, there are reasons to think that his stuff might be better than he’s been given credit for.
The strong minor league track record suggests that Noesi can get batters out with what he has. His Major League performance as a rookie backs up that assertion as well. There are a number of really good Major League pitchers who throw similar stuff and faced the same questions when they were prospects. Add it all up, and it seems like sticking a “back-end starter” label on Noesi doesn’t really do his potential value justice.
Right now, I’d slot him in as the team’s #4 starter, easily ahead of Beaven and Furbush, and honestly not that far behind Jason Vargas or Hisashi Iwakuma in the pecking order. While I still think there are good values to be found among starting pitchers on the free agent market, Noesi is a guy that I’d like to see break camp as a member of the rotation. His skillset should play well in Safeco, especially if the M’s put a good defensive club on the field, and there’s a chance that he himself could replace a good chunk of what the team gave up in Pineda.
Montero’s production will still likely determine whether this trade is viewed as a success or a failure, but Noesi shouldn’t just be viewed as a throw-in that cost us Jose Campos. He could be a solid Major League starter who is ready to step into the rotation immediately, and that’s a valuable piece, even if his skillset is generally underrated.