Organizational Rankings
As we talked about in the Seeds of Success post the other day, there are a lot of organizations that are moving forward with efficient, highly successful philosophies and are putting their teams in a great position to win a lot of the games in the future. Which teams are doing this better than others?
Here is my take. This is based on management personnel and organizational cohesion, not on field talent or recent success. Essentially, this is my opinion of which organizations have laid the strongest foundation between their ownership, baseball operations department, and coaching staffs to insert a winning DNA into their baseball teams. I included a grade with the numerical ranking because, in a lot of cases, there’s no real difference between a few spots on the list.
Rank Organization Grade 1 Cleveland A+ 2 Boston A 3 Tampa Bay A 4 Milwaukee B+ 5 Oakland B+ 6 NY Yankees B 7 Detroit B 8 San Diego B 9 Arizona B- 10 Atlanta B- 11 NY Mets B- 12 Anaheim C+ 13 Colorado C+ 14 Minnesota C+ 15 Florida C 16 Chi. Sox C 17 Washington C 18 Toronto C- 19 Chi. Cubs C- 20 Los Angeles C- 21 Texas C- 22 Pittsburgh D 23 Seattle D 24 Philadelphia D 25 Kansas City D 26 St. Louis D 27 San Francisco F 28 Cincinnati F 29 Houston F 30 Baltimore F
No surprise here – I’ve been calling the Indians the best run organization in baseball for about four years, and that hasn’t changed. Boston is perfecting the big market, high salaried bully approach in contrast to Tampa’s load-up-on-cheap-talent philosophy, but both are the correct direction for their organizations to go in, considering their relative financial positions. The Brewers are quietly putting the pieces together to dominate the NL Central for the next decade, Billy Beane keeps doing his thing in Oakland while waiting for a new stadium, and the Yankees have transformed themselves into an organization with foresight, planning, and rationalization to go with their $200 million payroll. Scary.
On the other side of the coin, there’s a couple organizations that are going head first off the cliff at full speed. The Baltimore Orioles have a meddlesome owner, a front office that lacks necessary power, outdated analytical techniques, and, oh yea, they play in the A.L. East. Barring a one season fluke where everything just breaks right, I’m not sure Baltimore makes the playoffs in the next 10-15 years. If you’re raising a child near the nation’s capital, make them a Nationals fan.
Houston’s not a whole lot better, honestly. Meddlesome owner? Check. Retread failure of a GM? Check. Completely ignoring the farm system? Double Check. The Astros spent a mind-boggling $600,000 in signing bonuses in the first 11 rounds of this summer’s draft – combined. Houston spent about as much on the draft as the Mariners did on Matt Mangini. With some aging, overrated players tied up to long term contracts and no help on the way from the farm system, Houston’s poised to be terrible for a long, long time.
The Mariners come in 23rd, buoyed by their strength in amateur scouting and ownership’s commitment to giving the front office a payroll advantage over most of baseball. The front office? Well, we’ve covered their flaws in detail. Under Bill Bavasi, the Mariners have done a good job of resurrecting what was a horrible farm system, but their major league transactions have been brutal, and there isn’t a winning organizational philosophy in place.
So, if you’re a fan of the Indians, Devil Rays, Red Sox, or Brewers, you should be pretty happy with your club. If you’re allegiances lie with Baltimore, Houston, San Francisco, or Cincinnati, well, you might want to find something else to do with your summers for the next ten years or so.
State of the AL West, March 2012
The season kicks off tonight/tomorrow morning with an AL West battle. Sure, it’s not the AL West battle most baseball fans are interested in, but it’s a divisional game nonetheless. The experts are split on the particulars, but everyone’s got the Angels and Rangers very close together at the top, and the Athletics and M’s very close together 15 wins or so back. Let’s take a quick look at the division as the curtain rises on the 2012 season – we’ll look at each team’s projections, their top prospects, and what could go wrong/right in this campaign.
(Note: The composite runs scored/runs against and wins are simple averages of PECOTA, CAIRO and Davenport projections. You could certainly quibble with the inclusion/exclusion of one or many of these, but I had them at hand.)
Los Angeles Angels:
Composite RS: 721
Composite RA: 657
Composite Wins: 88
The Angels rode strong pitching to a surprisingly good 2011 season, as Dan Haren and Jered Weaver both notched top-five seasons by FIP in the American League. Their run production was mediocre, as the disastrous acquisition of Vernon Wells combined with Mariner-esque production from the catcher spot prevented the Angels from fully taking advantage of their pitching. They looked like a pretty good team with a top-heavy but thin farm system and poor management, but this off-season produced a massive overhaul that, coupled with a lucrative TV deal, puts the Angels on (essentially) even footing with the two-time AL Champion Rangers.
First, the Angels fired the man responsible for the Wells deal (Tony Reagins) and replaced him with Jerry Dipoto. Dipoto flipped hard-throwing but hittable pitcher Tyler Chatwood to Colorado for C Chris Iannetta, who’s nothing special but represents a massive upgrade over 2011 starter Jeff Mathis. To ensure that this move produced tangible results, Dipoto then traded Mathis to Toronto to prevent manager Mike Scioscia from being tempted to use his beloved, hitless wonder. Then, utilizing the new TV revenue, Dipoto acquired the biggest FA hitter AND pitcher on the market, bringing in a 1B named Albert Pujols along with the Rangers top starter in 2011, CJ Wilson.
The addition of Wilson makes their top three starters the envy of baseball, as only the Phillies and Rays (and possibly the Giants) can boast similarly talented troikas. THis is reflected in their composite runs-allowed which is easily the best in the division. There’s still some question marks on the offensive side, though adding Pujols helps answer many of them. Wells was atrocious last year and Torii Hunter will turn 37 this season. Mark Trumbo, the surprise of 2011, no longer has a position (he’s playing a lot of 3B, where he may share time with Alberto Callaspo). Erick Aybar had a great year, but he’s been wildly inconsistent, following a 3.8-win 2009 with a 1.4-win 2010. Overall, they figure to improve on last year’s runs scored, and they project as an average to above-average defensive group.
Last year, I mentioned that Peter Bourjos’ was something of an enigma at the plate, and could turn into an elite, Franklin-Gutierrez-in-2009 level hitter, or add a bit of value as a disappointing Franklin-Gutierrez-in-2010 hitter. Unfortunately for M’s fans, Bourjos had a fantastic 2011, and is poised for the career we all thought Guti would have back in March of 2010. Bourjos is a phenomenal defender and he projects as a bit above an average hitter. Factor in the positional adjustment, and that makes Bourjos a 4-6 win player. The Angels also have one of the best prospects in all of baseball in CF Mike Trout. Trout struggled a bit in his call-up to the Angels last year, though the Angels cannily gave him several starts against an awww-F#%@-it Mariners team; he made his MLB debut against Seattle and then featured in a late-season series at Safeco where he was able to feast on Anthony Vasquez pitching. Trout’s the classic five-tool player and while he’ll begin the year in the minors, he could rack up several WAR spelling all three Angels OFs over the course of the year.
After Trout, however, things get a bit muddled. The Angels 2nd best prospect, Jean Segura, missed most of 2011 with hamstring issues. He’s a solid 2B/SS with contact skills and surprising pop, but the 22-year old hasn’t played above the High A California League (brief fill-in stint in AAA notwithstanding). Scouts seem to love his potential – and he ended up in the middle of BA’s top 100 prospect list – but there are a lot of question marks there. To be fair, the same could be said of the M’s Nick Franklin, who lost much of 2011 to a head injury and mononucleosis. Behind Segura, the Angels have starting pitcher Garrett Richards, a hard-throwing righty who made his debut in 2011, and then made his debut on the DL shortly thereafter. Presumed 5th starter Jerome Williams has battled injuries this spring, so Richards could end up starting the year in the Angels rotation, but his projections are pretty bad for 2012.
If everything goes right, this is an elite team – a 95-100 win behemoth that will go toe to toe with the Rangers and Yankees for the AL crown. The rotation’s top-heavy, but solid production from Williams/Richards/Ervin Santana would give them a league-leading runs-allowed, and if the Angels get some growth from Bourjos and Trout along with continued contributions from Trumbo and Hunter, the offense could score quite a bit more than they did last season. Vernon Wells could bounce back, and the bullpen could be better as the Angels allocate high-leverage innings away from Fernando Rodney and towards Jordan Walden. The Rangers get quite a bit of (deserved) credit for building an organization the “right” way, while the Angels have been harder to get a handle on – they swing from dumping Mike Napoli for one of the worst contracts in baseball to drafting and developing Bourjos and Trout.
If things go wrong, the back of the rotation will become an anchor, and a moribund Vernon Wells could become a distraction. Mark Trumbo could struggle at 3B and Iannetta’s hit tool could mean he’s not quite as big of an upgrade over Mathis as many thought. If any of the starting pitchers goes down, the team could suffer. The starters (and back-ups at certain positions) are neck and neck with the Rangers; it’s really only depth that separate the two teams. With Dipoto at the helm – and their revenue – this is an elite team, and one that can compete with Texas in every facet of the game except for the farm system. Damn it.
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Ten Mostly Inappropriate Questions for Jack Z.
A lot of you guys (and ladies) are lucky: per yesterday’s announcement, not only will you be able to high-five each other all day and all night at the Hot Sexy USSM Event on September 4th, but you’ll be able to talk directly to the man who’s as likely as anyone to bring the very first World Series Championship to Seattle, Washington.
I’m speaking, of course, about Mariner GM Jack Z.
In the comments section of said announcement, reader Chris_From_Bothell raises a legitimate concern, however, about how questions will be posed to the Honored Guest. Chris suggests that perhaps questions could be fielded from the crowd before Jack appears, so’s to — in Chris’s words — “[get] the most out of the time, [have] a minimum # of microphones or presenters, [remove] duplicate questions or rambling speakers, and so on.” All those are legitimate concerns.
I’m willing to argue that Chris’s represents a rather optimistic view of the human race — a view where mere “rambling” is the worst-case scenario for this Q and A period.
While, in real life, I think I’d probably be able to contain myself and play the part of the good citizen, there definitely exists a parallel universe where — shamelessly and without a hint of self-awareness — I use the Event as an opportunity to ask the VIP any sort of question I’d like. Nor do I think I’m unique in this regard: most of us, were we caught on the right day — perhaps with the right amount of fermented beverage in our gullet — might transgress the unspoken rules of such an occasion and ask questions that are inappropriate, uncomfortable.
In what follows, I ask ten questions that the readership would probably be better off not asking — or at least not asking in the way they’re phrased below.
Voila:
1. This year’s roster was very clearly subject to a great deal of variance. Erik Bedard, Milton Bradley, even Jose Lopez: had everything come together, the team would’ve been hard to beat. As it is, the team is terrible. Question: Would you do it again — i.e. construct a roster that could finish anywhere between 65 and 90 wins? Or has this season taught you to avoid such a strategy?
2. Is Dave Cameron’s pre-season ranking of the Mariners in FanGraphs’ Organizational Rankings — No. 6 overall, in case you didn’t see — is that, as many have suggested, an act of rampant homerism? Or does Dave Cameron maybe have a clue what he’s talking about?
3. Any chance I could serve as your right-hand man? I mean, I see that you’ve got an Assistant GM and a Special Assistant to the GM, but I don’t see anyone in the organization expressly designated Right-Hand Man. I could do that so hard. When do I start?
4. The Ken Griffey Jr. re-signing, appeared to work out as poorly as possible. First, was this something you could’ve predicted at the beginning of the season? (Not that he’d fall asleep in the clubhouse and stuff, but that his performance would be so poor and he’d have so strong a hold over the clubhouse?) Second, to what degree was your decision to fire Wakamatsu directly related to the whole Griffey thing?
5. Regarding Brandon Morrow: Did you trade him because he wasn’t “your guy,” or because there were legitimate concerns about his ability to contribute as a starter? (I guess “little of both” is a reasonable, if unspectacular, response.) Do you regard what he’s done this year as, like, the 90th-plus percentile of possible outcomes for this season?
6. With regard to Brandon League: last year, his splitter was, as Matthew Carruth writes, the toughest pitch to hit, and he threw it about 35% of the time. This year, he’s throwing it way less often, and his strikeout rate has suffered predictably, down from 9.16 K/9 to 6.21 K/9. The xFIPs aren’t that different (3.53 last year, 3.16 this one), but it seems like that splitter is too good not to throw. What gives? Is this League’s choice, or an organizational mandate?
7. I wasn’t joking about that Right-Hand Man thing. What’s that? Restraining Order?
8. How much do you guys — and by “you guys” I mean the Seattle Mariners — how much do you know about measuring/valuing defense? How far off is UZR? Tell us right now… or else.
9. Is there a reason ever to sign a right-handed power hitter for this team, in this park? If “no” — and if it’s obvious to the rest of the league — does that give you a disadvantage when dealing with other teams?
10. What control does the team have over Jose Lopez and his insatiable desire for American cheesburgers?
Game 31, Angels at Mariners
Mike Leake vs. Garrett Richards, 7:10pm
The M’s host the Angels this weekend in what’s now a must-see series for a completely different reason than we thought a few days ago. With Shohei Ohtani on track to pitch…maybe…on Sunday, this was supposed to be Ichiro’s chance to face another Japanese icon, and perhaps a fitting way to close the curtain on his playing days. Instead, he’s already a member of the front office, but given the way the M’s, Angels, and Astros have played, the three clubs enter today separated by a grand total of a half game. The Astros have fallen back to earth thanks to an encounter with the Yankees, while the Angels struggled with both the Yankees and Red Sox. Sure, sure, the M’s have had the easier schedule to date, but they’ve done what they’re supposed to and win series against inferior teams. The Angels are coming off a sweep of the Orioles, so they know a thing or two about that as well.
Tonight’s game features the Angels’ Garrett Richards, a pitcher I’ve long thought could be great if he could stay healthy. I even picked him as a potential Cy Young vote-getter before the season started, a prediction that now looks…well, it’s early, and how about that Braves pick, huh? Let’s talk about that instead! Richards has his highest ever K/9, and it’s not even close. Unfortunately, he’s going through something affecting several good pitchers this year: a three true outcome explosion. From 2013-2017, Richards’ walk rate stayed around 7%-8%. A bit higher in 2015, the one year he’s eclipsed 200 IP, but lower in 2017. This year, it’s currently at 15%, essentially right where he was this spring (14% in the Cactus League). Worse, he’s given up 4 HRs already, the first time he’s had a HR/9 over 1.0 since his 2011 cup of coffee.
His GB% is still elite, driven by his 96 MPH cutter/four-seamer that has high spin and extremely odd movement. He backs that pitch up with two of the highest spinning breaking balls in the game, a slider and curve that’s he’s using more of now than in prior years. His contact rate is an extremely low 72%, and while he’s not getting a lot more whiffs, he’s tricked batters into NOT swinging at strikes. Batters are offering at just over 53% of strikes, the lowest rate for any starter in the game. That sounds great, but then you look at his walk rate again and realizing that they’re not swinging for a very good reason. If they do nothing, he’s liable to walk them.
This pattern – lots of Ks, lots of walks, lots of HRs, and few swings – is happening to a few other talented pitchers. Robbie Ray’s K/9 would lead baseball if he qualified, and is somehow still ahead of James Paxton’s, but batters are swinging at just 41% of his pitches and taking advantage of a 14% walk rate. They’re waiting until they get a pitch to hit, and then crushing it, as Ray’s HR/9 is also the highest of his career. Paxton’s overall season numbers look like they might belong in this group, but I’m guessing he’s graduated from it, as has a clear example from last year, Blake Snell. Yu Darvish, with a BB/9 of 4.80 and a HR/9 of 1.80, is the new kid in this class.
Of course, the M’s aren’t exactly a patient team. With an above-average swing rate and below-average walk rate, they may be just what Richards needs. Or they would be, if they didn’t have the kind of power that can really hurt a pitcher who’s struggling with the long ball. Lay off low sliders and hunt middle-middle cutters, and you’ll be fine, M’s. Meanwhile, Mike Leake needs to give them a chance. Leake has the highest average exit velocity of any pitcher with at least 100 batted balls, and the second highest average fly ball/liner – which is a problem, given his sudden lack of ground balls. Leake looked like his old self against Cleveland in his last start, so it’s not all hopelessness and dingers. If he made an adjustment, that’s great (he threw more sliders last time out, but nothing too striking).
1: Gordon, CF
2: Segura, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Haniger, RF
7: Healy, 1B
8: Gamel, LF
9: Freitas, C
SP: Leake
The best article on Ichiro’s shock retir..whoops, transition, came from Patrick Dubuque, to no one’s shock. It’s over at BP, and it’s a free article, so go read it now.
The Tigers have sent Miguel Cabrera to the 10-day DL, and have decided that John Hicks, their back-up C/bench bat, will get the majority of the ABs that Cabrera misses. This is itself pretty unremarkable, but M’s diehards may remember Hicks as the glove-first C prospect the M’s drafted out of Virginia in the 2011 draft headlined by his college batterymate, Danny Hultzen. Hicks had a great year in High Desert, but other than that was not known for his hitting; he played in Tacoma for parts of 2 seasons, and was decidedly below average in both, with a slugging percentage under .400. He got a cup of coffee in one of the many lost years the M’s had in the Zduriencik era and came to the plate 34 times, going 2-32 with a stunning 18 strikeouts. He was DFA’d after that and bounced around AAA a bit, but the Tigers signed him in 2016. He’s now come to the plate 77 times for Detroit and has a cumulative slash line of .265/.328/.455 with 8 HRs, which is 8 more than I would’ve bet he’d ever hit. This isn’t a “why do they always get better?” lament, this is a just another hilarious example of baseball’s bizarre developmental paths. Good for John Hicks.
Matt Harvey will be DFA’d tomorrow after refusing a minor league assignment. It’s a move that seems to be in everyone’s best interest, as the odds that there remain things that the Mets could tell him that he hasn’t already tried are pretty low. His behavior makes the decision even easier for New York, but if he’s going to get back on track, it’s exceedingly unlikely that it’d happen in that organization.
Rob Whalen looks to bounce back from his first poor outing of 2018 5-6 days ago, as Tacoma kicks off a road trip in Reno. Tacoma avoided a sweep at the hands of the Albuquerque Isotopes with an 8-3 win yesterday, as Gordon Beckham and Mike Marjama homered and Ariel Miranda pitched pretty well.
Andrew Moore tossed 7 brilliant innings in Arkansas’ 9-1 win over Tulsa, but the game was a 1-1 pitchers duel most of the way. The Drillers Dennis Santana gave up 1 run over 5, but the Travs scored 6 in the 8th off of Shea Spitzbarth, and another 2 in the 9th just to make sure. Chase de Jong takes the hill against Tulsa’s Caleb Ferguson tonight. Ferguson was a 38th round pick by the Dodgers in 2014, and spent a few years in rookie ball thanks to TJ surgery in his senior year of HS, but has pitched brilliantly over the last year+. He started the year as the Dodgers’ #16 prospect, but could make a push up the rankings if he keeps his solid start going. The lefty has a low-90s FB and a good curve.
Modesto beat Rancho Cucamonga 9-6. Reggie McClain tossed a quality start, and Joe Rizzo and Nick Zammarelli continued their hot hitting in the win. Former Pirates top prospect Stetson Allie worked an inning in relief in this one; I guess he’s pitching again. He was a two-way star in high school in Ohio, but was drafted as a high-90s power pitcher. After walking 37 in 26 2/3 IP, including 8 in 2/3 of an IP in 2012, he picked up a bat. He tore up the Sallie League, and had an OPS over .800 in AA in 2014, but a low average and high strikeouts meant he could never quite get over the AA hump. He started pitching again a bit in the Dodgers system last year, and is throwing this year – he has 0 PAs for Rancho – but the walks have returned. Modesto heads to Lake Elsinore to start a series against the Storm tonight, and the Nuts will have Danny Garcia on the mound.
Bowling Green scored 5 in the first signalling pretty clearly that no, there would not be an organizational sweep. They ended up winning 8-3 despite 3 hits from L-Kings OF Jack Larsen, an undrafted FA out of UC San Diego who’s slashing .308/.407/.551 on the year. Oliver Jaskie stars tonight against the Dayton Dragons’ Adrian Rodriguez, a Mexican righty who’ll be back on a minor league mound for the first time since July of 2016…must be TJ surgery?
2016 M’s Minor League Preview
Just think: it can’t be worse than last year. Tomorrow’s opening day across the full-season minor leagues brings with it the usual rush of optimism and joy, but really: there’s something kind of of nice about knowing that the season realistically can’t go any worse than last year did. DJ Peterson was bad, then hurt. Alex Jackson was awful, sent to extended ST, then started showing some signs in short-season ball. Clinton seemingly lost every game in August and September. Tacoma was relatively lucky to plod along around .500 and at the periphery of a AAA divisional playoff race. It was a tough, tough season for the four full-season clubs, but with some new coaches, new development staff and some new players, I’m excited to see what the year brings. I don’t want to bury the lede here: there’s no obviously loaded, don’t-miss-this team in the system. I don’t want to oversell things, but with any big organizational shake-up, there’s always the opportunity to see some changes in *how* players progress, and what messages click with what players. Given the focus on development in the organization, I think we’re going to have to fight the urge to ascribe every hot start to a change in teaching methods and/or personnel, but I relish the opportunity to be excited about the minors again. This organization was pretty bad at extracting production from the raw material of talent, and it’s going to be fun watching that change. Because, and I really, really don’t want to be proven wrong here, the bar can’t be lower.
Class A Midwest League: Clinton Lumberkings
Last year: just…don’t ask.
The Lumberkings have a new manager in ex-Oregon State catcher Mitch Canham, and are the lucky recipients of several players who played for Everett last year…you know, the only minor league club to post a winning record. Headlining the newcomers are CF Braden Bishop, the glove-first ex-UW Husky who hit .320/.367/.393 after being taken in the 3rd round of last year’s draft. Joining him in what should be an extremely good defensive outfield are Ricky Eusebio, who started for Miami but played in the Arizona League after the draft. He’s even more of a glove-first guy than Bishop, and may need some time to adjust to the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. OF Luis Liberato flanked Bishop in Everett last year and offers a bit of power – something the Lumberkings aren’t likely to get from Bishop/Eusebio. As another guy who’s seen time in CF, the L’Kings could literally have three centerfielders patrolling the OF.
The IF is headlined by SS prospect Rayder Ascanio, a Venezuelan who just turned 20. He saw a bit of time with Clinton last year, after a push-promotion to the California League didn’t go so well. 12th round pick Logan Taylor will play multiple corner-IF positions; the righty got off to a torrid start for Everett before slumping in August.
The pitching staff is headlined by Nick Wells, a lanky lefthander the M’s got from Toronto in the Mark Lowe trade. He opened some eyes for Everett after the trade, giving up 2 runs on just 6 hits in 18 innings, and he’ll make his first start of the year on Sunday afternoon. Lukas Schiraldi (son of ex-Red Sox pitcher Calvin) gets the opening-day start, and he’ll be followed on Friday by Zack Littell, an 11th round pick out of a NC high school who’s garnered raves for his competitiveness and pitchability and who was Clinton’s best starter a year ago.
Position-player to watch: Tempting to go with Bishop or Wells, but I’m going to give the nod to Liberato. Intrigued to see what he can do against full-season pitching, and want to see if he can consistently hit some gaps in full-season ball. He’s nowhere near the defender Bishop is, but I’m hopeful he can make the leap in a tough hitting environment.
Pitcher to watch: Wells. He was only so-so in the months before the trade, but the improved command might he flashed in Everett might allow him to move quickly. The MWL might be a great environment for a fly-ball guy like Wells, too.
Opposing team to watch: Last year was all about the Astros affiliates, and the MWL was no exception, as Quad Cities dominated with a 88-50 record. Their staff combined to throw over 40 consecutive scoreless innings, they had a run differential over +200, you get the idea. They’re going to be good again, with an OF headed up by Kyle Tucker, the #5 pick in the 2015 draft and Daz (son of Mike) Cameron, whom the Astros picked at # 37.
Class Advanced-A California League: Bakersfield Blaze
Last year: 61-79
2016 marks the second year the M’s have been with Bakersfield, and hopefully this one goes a bit better. Bakersfield’s Sam Lynn ballpark is a unique environment, and for the California League (home to High Desert, for example), that’s saying something. Laid out such that the setting sun is *directly* in the eyes of the batter, the team needs to schedule its games around sunset. Further, with a gentle arc of an outfield wall, the centerfield fence is a mere 354 feet from home.
The Blaze struggled to score in the first half of 2015, but rode a hot Tyler O’Neill to a more normal mark in the second half. This year’s club is an interesting mix of holdovers from 2015 and those who’ve skipped over the Midwest League entirely. Representing the former group are catcher Tyler Marlette and IF Joe DeCarlo, while Drew Jackson (Everett’s NWL MVP) heads up the latter group. The IF looks relatively solid with Gianfranco Wawoe probably playing 2B to Drew Jackson’s 3B, and Joe DeCarlo’s 3B. Kyle Petty, who hit well in a nice winter league assignment with Adelaide of the Aussie League, will play 1B (he got time at 1B and C last year).
The OF’s a bit thinner with glove-first guy Austin Cousino in CF and linebacker-sized enigma Austin Wilson in RF. As I mentioned before, Wilson was an over-slot pick out of Stanford a while ago, and a huge, huge talent who underwhelmed a bit in college. Thus far in his pro career, he’s kicked the underwhelming into overdrive, but you never know when/if the new coaching crew unlocks some of his prodigious potential. Well-named OFs Chantz Mack and Arby Fields will also get some time, as will converted IF Brock Hebert.
The pitching staff is headed up by 2015 draft pick Andrew Moore, he of the sparkling 43:2 K:BB ratio in Everett. The raw stuff isn’t eye-popping but Moore is supposedly a guy who competes and uses his command to dominate batters, and that’s pretty much what we saw last year. Of course, the NWL is a much easier environment for college-trained pitchers, while the California League is…not. Just ask Ryan Yarbrough, who posted a 58:5 K:BB ratio before posting just a so-so line for Bakersfield last year. Another pitcher to look for is reliever Ramon Morla. If you’ve been following the system for a while, you may remember Morla as a power-hitting 3B prospect several years ago. Well, he’s now a reliever, and hey, I love position-player conversions. It’s Rafael Soriano’s fault.
Position player to watch: Gotta be SS Drew Jackson. After a middling career at the plate at Stanford, Jackson hit far better than most observers expected, and he’s shot up the M’s prospect rankings. This is a challenging assignment for him, and he’s going to need to prove he’s more than just a slap hitter who rode exceptional speed to a high batting average. Of course, exceptional speed isn’t a BAD thing: Jackson stole 47 bases for Everett while being caught just 4 times. He’s also got a plus-plus arm at SS.
Pitcher to watch: Andrew Moore. Another challenge assignment, and obviously the California League is murder on command/control guys. But if Moore can thrive here, he turns into an intriguing bargain prospect for the M’s. Oft-injured lefty Ryan Horstman didn’t pitch much in 2015, but also didn’t give up any runs, and he’s been an under the radar relief prospect who’s just struggled to stay healthy for the club.
Opposing team to watch: ex-M’s affiliate High Desert, now a Rangers affiliate, has 9 of the Rangers top 30 prospects.
AA Southern League: Jackson Generals
Last year: 53-84
Jackson’s run differential and raw stats weren’t quite as bad as their overall record, but they weren’t any good. A team that was supposed to be paced by top prospect DJ Peterson just never got the bats going, and with turnover and ineffectiveness in the rotation, it was just a year to forget. The Generals have some star power in the form of the M’s top pitching prospect, Edwin Diaz, who blew through the Cal League and pitched most of the year for Jackson a year ago. The skinny righty out of Puerto Rico can touch the mid-high 90s, and got some time in the Futures Game at the All-Star break last year. He’ll be joined by Ryan Yarbrough, the breakout star of 2014 who had some injury issues last year, and, perhaps unsurprisingly, couldn’t recapture the form he had with the AquaSox in High-A. Still, for a budget senior sign, he’s been a revelation, and now that he’s healthy, he could reclaim that top-10-in-the-org prospect status with a solid year. Dan Altivilla was a dominant Division II hurler when the M’s drafted him a few years back, and he had a good 2015 for Bakersfield as well. The right-hander had a great stretch in the middle of the year in which he struck out 58 to just 16 walks, but he fell off a bit towards the end of the year.
The big position player prospect is OF Tyler O’Neill, the stocky Canuck who hit over 30 HRs for Bakersfield, despite missing time to play with the Canandian National Team during the summer as well. DJ Peterson will get another shot at the Southern League to start out, though the 1B could move up to Tacoma fairly quickly with a hot start. 2B Tim Lopes has good speed, but the high minors will be a tough test for a guy who struggled at the plate before a minor break out in the California League last year.
The catchers are long-time M’s farmhands Steve Baron and Marcus Littlewood.
Joining O’Neill in the OF is Cuban CF Guillermo Heredia, who looked a bit rusty in the spring, which is to be expected for a guy who hadn’t played much in two years. Fellow speedsters Ian Miller and Leon Landry make this another extremely good defensive OF.
Position player to watch: With apologies to DJ Peterson, who may be getting underrated in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world of prospecting, but it’s got to be Tyler O’Neill, who was one of very, very few solid raw talents to start translating that into in-game production and power.
Pitcher to watch: No surprises here: it’s Diaz, who can either make the leap into top-50 prospect or who’ll hear more and more chatter that his future is in the bullpen.
Opposing team to watch: The Cubs have had their day, so it’s not Tennessee this year. Instead, let’s go with the Brewers affiliate, the Biloxi Shuckers. The Brewers system was on life-support for a few years there, but a new front office has made a number of trades, and that’s allowed the Brewers to take a large slice of the Houston Astros prospects, and many of them are in AA this year. The group’s headed up by OF Brett Phillips, who dominated for the Astros before moving to Biloxi in the Carlos Gomez deal. C Jacob Nottingham played for Houston’s Quad Cities club last year before moving to Oakland, and then to Milwaukee in the Khris Davis deal more recently. They’re joined by an unheralded lefty starter who kept racking up results Josh Hader; Hader, you’ll be shocked here, came over from the Astros org in the Gomez deal, too. Homegrown corner OF Victor Roache was a first rounder back in 2012 after being one of the better power hitters in the minors for Georgia Southern. He hasn’t fared as well in the minors, but after a solid year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, he could break out if he can learn to recognize pitches a bit better. The Mississippi Braves will be interesting to watch once SS Dansby Swanson joins them from the Carolina League.
AAA Pacific Coast League: Tacoma Rainiers
Last Year: 68-76
The roster churn throughout the org, mixed with some tough positional battles for the big club make the Tacoma roster kind of a transitional one – there are lots of veterans with big league time, and only a few promoted players. That’s more and more common in AAA, but there’s still plenty to talk about with Tacoma. Perhaps the biggest name is James Paxton, who went from #3 starter a year ago for Seattle to starting 2016 in the minors. This assignment probably stings, and how he responds is going to be critical. If he wants to commiserate, he can talk to his battery mate, Mike Zunino, who’s getting a reset season outside of the big league eye. Zunino obviously struggled much more than Paxton, and is saying all of the right things about working on his swing in the minors, but it’s got to be weird when the front office signs TWO catchers and all but publicly states that he’s not getting promoted this year. Still, that’s a hell of a starter and catcher, and Zunino’s framing figures to get the entire Tacoma staff some favorable counts.
The infield will look familiar to those who saw the team last year, with SS Chris Taylor and IF Shawn O’Malley playing all over, and corner IF/OF Stefen Romero doing the same at less demanding positions. Ex-Oregon State SS Tyler Smith joins the club after spending all of last year with Jackson.
The OF’s made up of some true PCL veterans, like Efren Navarro, a long-time Angels farmhand, and Mike Baxter, who got call-ups with the Cubs and Mets. Daniel Robertson was Navarro’s teammate in Salt Lake (and, briefly, Los Angeles) last year, too. Call-up Dario Pizzano was having a solid campaign for Jackson when he got hurt and missed six weeks last year; he’ll try to pick up where he left off while fighting for team with Navarro/Robertson. The CF, and biggest prospect, is Boog Powell who made a run at a spot on the M’s bench, but will start the year in AAA and getting more playing time. The ex-Rays prospect with an excellent batting eye may make his big league debut later this year. For a guy whose ceiling has been downplayed due to a lack of in-game power, the PCL is a good place to show some development in that area.
The pitching staff is a bit thinner behind Paxton, but the bullpen figures to be interesting. Lefty Paul Fry was, statistically, a dominant prospect, but Fry struggled a bit in the Arizona Fall League. If his command and velocity are back, he could be an effective reliever in any environment: Fry gave up a grand total of zero homers despite pitching in the Cal League and in AA last year. Justin DeFratus will try to get his career back on track; he was a solid member of the Philadelphia bullpen not long ago, and then after an inning or two this year, the M’s cut him and signed him to a minor league deal instead. The pitching star of spring training this year, righty Donn Roach, starts in Tacoma. The sinkerballing journeyman had been known for an otherworldly GB% and next to no missed bats, but he started racking up strikeouts in Peoria – he’s one to watch, and you could tell that the M’s were loathe to send him down. Other newcomers like Jonathan Aro, Cody Martin and long-time Orioles org guy Steve Johnson round out the bullpen. Former Padres and Rangers prospect Joe Wieland starts tomorrow’s opener, and he’ll be followed by Cody Martin, Paxton, and then Adrian Sampson (acquired for JA Happ) on Sunday. As Mike Curto notes, they may make a roster move tomorrow after learning that C Rob Brantly passed through waivers and was assigned to Tacoma. The club already had C Steven Lerud backing up Zunino.
Position player to watch: Mike Zunino. Many of us lamented Zunino’s rush through the minors and wondered what things would be like if he’d actually had some time to develop in the minors. He showed serious red flags the first time he came through Tacoma (though he showed plenty of encouraging things, too), and now he’s back with the psychological toll of sustained failure weighing on him. This whole experiment is predicated on the idea that you actually CAN go back and make up for lost developmental time. I think that’s *probably* true, as, say, Roy Halladay shows, but that it’s also not ideal. Of course, the ideal’s been gone a loooong time, and there’s no sense worrying about that now. The new org has been stressing the importance of development, and this is their primary job. New hitting coach Scott Brosius has a great reputation, and I’m excited to see if this works. And hey, if they’ve got some developmental mojo to smear on Chris Taylor, that’d be fantastic.
Pitcher to watch: Paxton. Can he stay healthy? Can his mechanics and newfound ability to pitch up in the zone make him more consistent that he’s been? It feels weird to even talk about Paxton here, so if you’d like, we can give the honor to Roach. Spring training is weird – remember Zunino hitting like .500 last year, or Mune Kawasaki lining base hits everywhere a few years ago? – but it’s just odd to see a guy who couldn’t strike out a folding chair in 2015 tear through big league line-ups the way he did. Maybe he’s learned something.
Opposing team to watch: This feels like an easy one this year. It’s got to be Round Rock, the Rangers affiliate, and the club that’ll be starting RF Nomar Mazara, 3B Joey Gallo, ex-Rainier/M’s prospect Pat Kivlehan, and former #1 prospect in baseball, Jurickson Profar. Mazara is a top-10-in-baseball prospect, and one of the best pure bats in the game, and the club could get even better when CF Lewis Brinson (another top-10 guy, and someone who ended the year in Round Rock) joins. Unfortunately for those of us in the northwest, Round Rock won’t be making the trip to Tacoma this year; we’ll have to catch them on MiLB.tv in May when the Rainiers visit.
If you’re looking for a prospect-laden club that’ll actually travel to Tacoma, then catch the OKC Dodgers when they visit Cheney in mid-July. They feature phenom Julio Urias, one of the best pitching prospects in the game, along with Zach Lee, a prospect who bounced back from an ugly 2014 and nearly made the Dodgers out of spring training this year. Rounding out their staff is Jharel Cotten, a solid right-hander from the Virgin Islands who breezed through High-A and AA last year, and Carlos Frias, who pitched against the M’s in the Cactus League. Their position players aren’t great shakes, but who needs them with that kind of rotation?
Fresno’s got 1B AJ Reed, 3B Colin Moran and CF Andrew Aplin, and they do the honorable thing and visit Tacoma multiple times (June, and late August).
News and Links for a Very Strange 3/30 [updated]
Sooooo, uh, more spring training anyone? Here’s the downside of having the team set a 28/25 man roster early: Spring training games that are pretty meaningless anyway now even less riding on them. Woo! The team faces San Diego tomorrow night in a game that will probably feature none of the jet-lagged players who made the trip to Tokyo. All of you who’ve been clamoring for another look at Kevin Millwood will be thrilled, but this will be a game made up of the M’s 4th starter backed by a team who have no shot at the 2012 roster.
Thankfully, there’s a lot going on in Marinerland:
1: According to Shannon Drayer, Franklin Gutierrez has been cleared to resume all baseball activities. It’ll be interesting to see how they work him back in, but this is the one thing that might make the next few “games” worth watching.
2: The M’s team blog From the Corner of Edgar and Dave has been doing the internet a great service by posting some box scores of the minor league games that have been going on for a few weeks (and which actually wrap up today). Of note, Carlos Triunfel’s hitting well, Carter Capps has been used as a reliever, Taijuan Walker had a so-so outing (gasp!).
3: One recent High Desert box score stood out – the game featured a reliever named Wes Alsup who pitched alongside 2011 Clinton closer Tyler Burgoon and 2011 HD closer Willy Kesler. Who’s Alsup? He pitched in the independent Northern League in 2010 and while his stats weren’t eye-popping, they were enough to get him a taste of affiliated ball with the Braves low-A team. Nine uninspired games later, he was released and he headed back to the indie leagues, this time with the Windy City Thunderbolts. He was wild, but also, well, this: IP: 34 Ks: 61. I know, I know, it’s the Frontier League – who knows what that means. But it seems that something changed – he had a so-so K rate in the Northern League and walked about as many as he struck out. Having had some success with a reliever from the indie leagues years ago, the M’s signed him in January.
I thought he must be a deceptive-delivery, mid-80s junkballer, but apparently that’s not the case. Jason Parks of BP was down in Peoria recently and saw Alsup’s appearance in a minor-league game. He reported that he sat at 95mph with his fastball, touched 97, and featured a very slider slider from 86-89. Now I’m intrigued. Again, this is a 25-year old who’s pitched one-quarter of a season in low-A, and did poorly enough that it got him cut. His command issues aren’t solved or anything as he still walked quite a few in the Frontier League, but I’ll be keeping an eye out for his name in the box scores when the season starts. Don’t know for sure if he’ll be with High Desert when the season starts; rosters haven’t been finalized yet.
4: While nothing’s official, it sounds like the M’s will have Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen and James Paxton start the year together in AA Jackson. This allows the 19-year old Walker to avoid the video-game run environment of High Desert and the chance to learn from the two lefty prospects. Walker’s not the only teenage uber-prospect to hit AA, as the Rangers will apparently send SS Jurickson Profar to the AA Texas League. I’d quibble about the M’s having to move AA leagues, but I think Profar and Walker will face each other plenty down the road.
High Desert’s a problem, but it’s not the only spot teams are loathe to send prospects. Here’s a story speculating that the Arizona Diamondbacks may start Trevor Bauer in AA to avoid homer-happy Reno, their AAA affiliate (hat tip: Mike Curto). Bauer was the inspiration for this great piece at Fangraphs this morning, which has nothing to do with anything, but it’s worth your time anyway. It’s basically impossible to root against Bauer at this point.
5: Fangraphs Org rankings are back for 2012, and the M’s have tumbled to #23. Better than Oakland (#28), but a chasm now separates the top two teams from the bottom two. The M’s quartet of pitching prospects could help close it, though Texas in particular has an extremely deep farm system of its own. The M’s need to develop some position players, particularly at CF and SS. Nick Franklin’s great, but he’s not closing the gap by himself. A renegotiated TV deal will help the M’s address the financial divide in the AL West (at a cost of higher cable fees for fans), but the M’s really need to identify and develop talent the way Texas is.
6: Here’s a great article on A’s Special Assistant to the GM (and ex-University of Puget Sound and UW coach) Grady Fuson, who addresses his portrayal in the book/movie “Moneyball” and what really went on in the A’s draft room in 2001 and 2002.
7: The M’s have the honor of facing Japanese sensation Yu Darvish in his MLB debut on April 9th. Larry Stone’s blog post echoes Ichiro’s classic quote before he faced Daisuke Matsuzaka in the latter’s home debut in Boston.
8: Kevin Goldstein’s AL West Prospect Preview‘s up at Baseball Prospectus ($). Of note, the player he thinks could make the majors this year is Forrest Snow who could move quickly as a reliever. He’s also high on Francisco Martinez who’s been hitting very well in the minor league games.
[UPDATE – 10:20pm]
9? – As many of you know, Michael Pineda’s got rocked by the Phillies in his Grapefruit league start today amid rumors that he’d begin the year in AAA. Then things got worse – he’s now got a sore shoulder and now the rumors involve things like MRIs. I think (thought?) Pineda was amazing, and I have to admit my first reaction to the big trade was feeling like I’d been punched in the kidneys. I don’t take any joy in hearing of his struggles, but I can admit there’s something weirdly satisfying about “winning” a trade; about feeling like the M’s pulled one over on another team. Jeff’s post at Lookout Landing beautifully explores the weird psychology of fandom and the way trades in particular make things more binary, more Manichean somehow.
Monday Morning Links
We’ve almost made it through winter, and now the baseball fan must contend with the February doldums between the big free agent signings/winter ball box score-watching and actual spring training games. This is baseball purgatory, when we get moderately excited about Mariners, future Mariners and future played-with-future-Mariners doing laps.
I don’t mean to dampen the enthusiasm over pitchers and catchers reporting, as I’ll take mid-February over early January any day, but since Roy Oswalt has no intention of using the M’s as a decoy, much less signing with them, we’re going to have to make do with stories like this one. So here are, uh, several stories like that one.
1) Hisashi Iwakuma will throw his first bullpen today, but signed lots of autographs under the watchful eye of “a few dozen” members of the Japanese media on Sunday.
2) Harrison Crow has a post at SodoMojo comparing the various Mariners prospect lists. This table helps show just how much consistency there is in the prospecting world concerning Seattle’s (excellent) top 5, and how much volatility there is when it comes to ranking everyone else. This isn’t a bad thing, really; each list is the product of different person, and, often, a completely different idea about what these lists are *for*. Some focus on upside and downplay risk, figuring that, given the overall attrition/failure rate, it’s better to identify the guys who could be impact talents than have a slightly better rate at predicting future bench bats. Others think there’s so little independent information to go on – and what little statistical data we have is of questionable value – with international free agent signings and rookie leaguers, or that guys who are close to the majors are intrinsically more valuable when assessing a team’s minor league depth. Obviously, each person mixes and matches, and so you’ll see Erasmo Ramirez anywhere from 7th to 19th (I lean closer to 7th than 19th, by the way), and you’ll see the M’s system ranked #1 to #11.
A couple of quick comments about the lists – I think a lot of people may be underestimating Erasmo. Didn’t put up great numbers, but he was very young, and his stuff’s developing. This isn’t a guy with a change-up and a high-80s fastball who’d get killed in the majors, he’s got more velocity than is often expected (prospect lists overrate guys with 94 velo when they sign at 16/18, and underrate guys who grow into 94 velo later on. We’ll call this the Pineda Postulate.). I also think the various ranking-gurus have ID’d a pretty good sleeper in RHP Carter Capps. The division 2 starter looked very good in the wood-bat Cape Cod league, and could move very quickly as a bullpen arm (though I hope he has the chance to start at some point; I wouldn’t mind seeing him get some experience in both roles this year).
3) OK, OK – so teams aren’t officially done with free agents. Sure, Johnny Damon’s still looking for a job (and he can still hit a bit, too), the big positional players names are a pair of Cubans: Yoenis Cespedes and Jorge Soler. The former’s seen as an athletic CF/RF who’s relatively close to the majors (he’s 26). After dominating the Cuban league last year (.333/.424/.667, 33 HRs in 90 games), he defected to the Dominican Republic, where he’s worked out with former Seahawks running back Ahman Green (?). Some believe Cespedes is a 4 or 5 tool talent who’d be a bargain at $40-50 million plus, but others, including our vacationing overlord, think he’s a risk and may not be worth whatever he eventually signs for. We haven’t talked about him a lot here as he very quickly narrowed down his list of suitors, and the M’s weren’t on it. Miami remains the favorite, but the Cubs/White Sox/Indians are still in the running.
UPDATE: Hours after I posted this, the Oakland A’s snuck in and signed Cespedes to a 4-year, $36m contract that will allow Cespedes to be a free agent after the contract expires. This has been, to put it mildly, a strange off-season for Oakland. I understand why they thought they needed to move Gonzalez and Cahill, and it’s nice that they now have something like 8 of the top 100 or so prospects, albeit 7 or 8 questionable prospects, but their player development group absolutely needs to step up and develop MLB-ready players. The move to get Cespedes seems like a way to stabilize their outfield and get a potential impact bat who’s close to the majors. While it’s still a huge risk, I understand the A’s offseason a bit more now.
Jorge Soler is a 19 year old CF with what everyone seems to agree is plus batspeed and decent power. There’s no consensus on his ultimate position, with many arguing he’ll outgrow CF and end up in a corner. Many articles discuss his signing bonus vis a vis the $!5+ million the Rangers gave another Cuban CF, Leonys Martin, last year, but it seems that the two aren’t really good comps for one another. Martin’s a great defensive CF who won’t hit for much power but may have very good contact/average skills. Soler may grow into a big corner OF with plenty of HR pop. Again, it looks like the M’s aren’t in the running, and Kevin Goldstein tweeted that the Cubs may be in the driver’s seat for now, but several teams – including the A’s – have been linked with Soler in the past. (After getting Cespedes, you’d think the A’s won’t be in on Soler. That said, no one had them linked with Cespedes, so who the hell knows?)
4) As you’ve probably heard from Greg Johns of the M’s (or Matthew’s post on Lookout Landing), Mike Carp and former Rainier/feel-good story Brodie Downs made t-shirts to honor their former teammate, Greg Halman. Here’s a look at them; Geoff Baker mentions that the may be available in M’s team stores with proceeds going to benefit Halman’s family.
5) It’s not exactly a “best shape of his career” story, but Justin Smoak has apparently decided to make a major sacrifice and give up burritos and pizza to try and improve his fitness/strength. There are always stories like this, but Mike Carp’s dietary changes last year may have helped him go from organizational player to potential starting LF/DH. Smoak needs to have a big year if the M’s are going to hang around .500, so, uh, good luck with the diet. The thought of giving up burritos is making my right arm twitch; typing is increasingly difficult.
6) The other side of the “best shape of his life” stories are the long-shot come-back attempts. Today’s installment: former DRays/Angels pitcher Scott Kazmir.
7) Another top 100 (er, 101) prospect list today: Kevin Goldstein’s at Baseball Prospectus. Don’t need a subscription to see it here. Jesus Montero comes in at #7 and Taijuan Walker’s at #14. Overall, 4 Mariners made the cut with Nick Franklin an honorable mention.
The USSM QnA for 1/17
A really long set of answers to the questions in 44 comments.
Read more
Future Forty Update for August
The Future Forty has received its monthly update. There are some notable departures in this version, as I’ve decided that its time to give organizational opportunity a little more weight in the rankings than I have in the past. Opportunity is obviously vital to a prospects success, and if the organization isn’t going to give him one, we necessarily have to downgrade the likelyhood that he’s going to become a major league player.
So, with that in mind, Guillermo Quiroz and Bobby Livingston have both been removed from the list. Yes, they’re probably better bets to have major league careers than some of the players listed, but at this point, it’s almost certain that those major league careers won’t come with the Mariners, and neither has any real trade value, making it unlikely that the Mariners will ever get anything of value out of either player. Also departing are Shin-Soo Choo (traded), George Sherrill (established major leaguer), and Michael Saunders (not as good as some other end of list guys).
Replacing them are some new names, as well as a mea culpa. A few months ago, I booted Luis Valbuena from the Future Forty as he hadn’t hit in several years and his defense was nothing to write home about. Well, pretty much starting the day after that, he started to hit, and hit well. He earned a promotion out of the Midwest League, and is now trying to hold his own as a 20-year-old in high-A. So, sorry Luis, I never should have dismissed you in the first place. Welcome back. Joining him as newcomers or returners to the list are Michael Wilson (numbers too good to ignore right now), Kuo-Hui Lo (interesting young OF prospect), Carlos Peguero (Wladimir Balentien part two?), and Anthony Butler (solid arm, showing decent stuff in pro debut).
You’ll notice that the list got quite a bit younger. The top levels of the system are really being thinned out by promotion and trade. This isn’t a problem, as this is exactly what a farm system is for, but the bulk of the talent in the minors is now several years away. Among current minor leaguers, the only ones you could realistically expect to contribute the rest of the year would be Chris Snelling, Eric O’Flaherty, and Francisco Cruceta, and none of them would play major roles for the big club. I’ve categorized only 7 of the 32 minor leaguers on the Future Forty as being in one of the top four tiers of prospects. The guys who are close to the majors are probably role players, and the guys with talent to be everyday players are several years away. The M’s farm system is going to be ranked quite low again this offseason.
However, that shouldn’t cause us to overlook the fact that the farm system is doing its job – stocking the major league club with young, effective, cheap talent. A huge portion of the M’s success this season can be tied directly to the players the farm system promoted in the last 12-18 months. We won’t be seeing another wave of talent like the one we saw get to Seattle in the last year, but we don’t need to.
One player specific comment, since the guy has been generating some buzz lately for his improved play.
I’m a known critic of Wladimir Balentien. In the past, his approach at the plate was so terrible that finding a major leaguer who had succeeded with his mentality and skillset was darn near impossible. I kept comparing him to Hensley “Bam Bam” Muelens, and while we acknowledged the potential was there, kept reminding everyone that the risk was even higher. Until he learned to control the strike zone and make better contact, his ability to hit major league pitching was going to be neutralized.
So, in the last month, Wladimir Balentien apparently got the memo. During July, he drew 24 walks and struck out 25 times in 93 at-bats. This is a guy who drew 33 walks all of last season. His 2005 walk rate was 6.1%. In July, his walk rate was 26%. That’s a ridiculous difference, and there’s no chance it was a fluke. Wlad has clearly worked on his patience at the plate, working counts, and laying off pitches out of the strike zone.
However, it has come at a high cost. Balentien’s calling card has been his power, and that is the one tool he has that projects to the major leagues. He’s going to live and die by how often he crushes the baseball. And while the walks went through the roof, the power took the elevator to the ground floor. In July, just 7 of his 24 wents went for extra bases, or a 29% mark. For the rest of the season, 31 of his 65 hits had gone for extra bases, or 47%. That difference is just as significant as the walk rate. 29% XBH/H in the minors is barely acceptable for a player with a broad base of skills; for a guy whose power is his only plus tool, it’s disaster.
In the last month, we’ve seen Balentien essentially convert himself from being Hensley Muelens into being Rich Becker. While the improved walk rate is an extremely positive development, it’s hard to think that its a coincidence that his power took a nosedive when his approach at the plate changed. I’ve often referred to skillsets as a sliding scale – the more you move one set of skills, other skills are often negatively impacted. Wlad needs to show that he can both walk and hit for power at the same time.
As always, feel free to use this thread as a catch-all for minor league questions, and I’ll try to answer as many as I can.
Future Forty 2.0
If you look over in the left nav bar, you’ll see that I’ve updated the Future Forty. However, I wouldn’t really characterize this as an update. More like an overhaul.
Basically, I’ve never been very happy with the concept of prospect lists. Everyone does them because, well, everyone else does them. Baseball America has been doing their Top 100 since the fall of Rome, seemingly. So, everyone else who wants to come across as a legitimate authority on prospect analysis makes something that they can compare to BA; mainly, a list. So, analyst after anlayst contribute their thoughts, and we get hundreds of prospect lists. And they tell us… nothing.
Seriously, a numerical list is probably the worst way to communicate information. What does it really tell us? That the #13 prospect is any more likely to contribute than the #14 prospect? Not in the slightest. For the most part, we mentally just organize the rankings into tiers. The top ten in the game are elite prospects, the next ten to twenty are good prospects with some flaws, and so on and so forth. Unless we really just want to argue, we don’t really spend any time trying to discern the miniscule differences between guys ranked next to each other. So what’s the point?
Of course, it’s pretty hypocritcal for me to sit here and bash prospect lists when I put one out every month, isn’t it? So, I’ve torn the Future Forty down and rebuilt it from scratch. What you see now is only barely similar to what you used to see. Here’s a rundown of the changes and an overview of what the new and improved Future Forty should mean to you:
Gone are the numerical rankings. There is no #1 prospect, nor #40 prospect. There are still 40 players, but the numbers next to their names are no more. The Future Forty is now a tier based system. It is made up of eight levels, so to speak, of different kinds of prospects: elite, good, solid, future, marginal, projects, suspects, and injured. I’ve included a short definition of each level in the Future Forty itself, and hopefully they are fairly understandable.
The goal, really, was to provide more information to the reader. A lot of the questions used to revolve around things like “why is Justin Leone ranked ahead of Matt Tuiasasopo”, because there wasn’t an explanation attached. Now, instead of saying one is better than the other, I’ve grouped them into seperate categories to help explain the vast differences between the two. Leone is a marginal prospect, close to the majors, while Tuiasasopo is a future prospect who needs several years of development. If you happen to like long term projects, than you’ll probably prefer Tui. If you want someone who can contribute right now, Leone’s your guy. The list wouldn’t give you any information other than “Dave isn’t as high on Tui as everyone else”. Now, rather than giving you my opinion, I’m showing my work, and letting you decide what type of prospects you prefer.
Also gone are the comments, which rarely provided a lot of insight, and were honestly a pain in the butt to write. They’ve been replaced by four categories: reward, risk, stock, and ETA. The reward category measures a players potential, while risk simply measures the chance that the player will not live up to that potential. Stock measures whether a player is improving, declining, or staying neutral in my eyes. ETA is the year that I estimate the player will arrive in the majors if he develops as expected. Obviously, not everyone will, and attrition will knock a lot of these guys off the organizational ladder before they reach the show. ETA is not a prediction of when I think they will make the Mariners 25 man roster, but rather a guage to show how many more years I think they need in the minors before they’ll be ready.
So, there’s the basic guide. Rather than looking at Asdrubal Cabrera as “the #8 prospect”, the Future Forty now tells you that he’s a Future Prospect, needs several years to develop, but has comparable potential to guys like Jeremy Reed and Shin-Soo Choo (the top position players in the system), but is also one of the highest risk prospects in the organization. Based on his expected evelopment, I wouldn’t expect him in Seattle before 2007.
You still get my opinion of the players, only now its broken down into parts rather than a whole. This should make it significantly better for the readers to ascertain what kind of player a prospect is and why he’s in the tier that he is. Obviously, as time goes on, players will move from tier to tier, though I expect movement to be minimal and slow. I’m not going to be moving Adam Jones or Oswaldo Navarro up to Good Prospect status if they start off 20 for 50 in April.
Also, you’ll note that the players are sorted within each tier first by Reward ranking, than by Risk. High Risk, High Reward players will rank ahead of Low Risk, Low Reward players in the same tier, because I believe that potential is more important than attrition in valuing prospects, though both are obviously crucial.
I hope you guys find the Future Forty 2.0 to be a huge improvement over the list style, and for the prospect mavens out there, I’d encourage you to take a look at revamping the way we present information going forward. Just because everyone else presents their data in a list doesn’t mean we have to. After all, everyone else use to evaluate players by batting average too.