Situational hitting is just hitting
Quick pointer to Geoff’s very long post about the M’s situational hitting woes.
There is no one answer here. But one fact seems indisputable: this entire team needs work in some aspects of situational hitting. A team that’s the worst in the league at knocking baserunners in should adopt no less of an attitude.
I dispute that that’s a fact. They need to work at hitting, not “some aspects of situational hitting”. The M’s suck at advancing runners because they suck at hitting. They’re at or near the bottom any way you want to sort the teams. They don’t hit for average, they don’t get on base, they don’t hit for power. It’s Ichiro, Branyan, Gutierrez, and a collection of average-to-sucky guys.
Teams that don’t hit don’t hit with guys on base. There’s no approach, no spring training drills, that teams that can’t hit can use to become way more awesome with runners on. Advancing the runner with a bunt is generally a wash because you’re giving up an out, and you know the rest of this argument. And conversely, teams that hit don’t have to figure out why they’re not scoring enough runners, because they score because they’re hitting… tada! Triumph of the obvious.
There’s some variation, of course, because the sample size for hitting is huge and the sample size with guys on second is small, and leans heavily on hitters who are up when the good hitters are on, and so on and so forth. But you can predict a team’s hitting with men on next year with this year’s hitting better than you can with this year’s hitting with men on.
None of which is to say that this isn’t painful. But the correlation between hitting and hitting with runners on is nearly perfect. There’s no need to overthink this, or for the team to (as they did in past years to disastrous results) go find a guy they think is a good situational hitter.
Situational hitting
If stressing the value of situational hitting and scoring the runner from third throughout spring training didn’t do any good, doesn’t that mean
– the manager doing the stressing and training was ineffective
– the players are all too inept to pick it up
or
– situational hitting isn’t a skill?
Game 103 – Mariners at Angels – Welcome, Sam Tuivailala, an Odd Sort of Situational Reliever
Wade LeBlanc vs. Andrew Heaney, 7:00pm
Before we talk about tonight’s game, let’s talk about the big news of the day: the M’s made their long-awaited trade for relief help today, bringing in former Cardinals RHP Sam Tuivailala for RP prospect Seth Elledge.
Tuivailala has been someone I’ve had my eye on for a while, as he showed plus-plus velo a few years ago. He came up to the big leagues averaging over 98 MPH on his fastball, and had the rudiments of a good slider to pair with it. He’s developed a sinker as well, which he uses well to right-handed bats. He absolutely has the raw stuff to be a late-inning reliever, and while his command has failed him at the big league level, it’s nice that his raw stuff is way, way above some of the more traditional situational relievers on the market. This is not Marc Rzepczynski; if everything breaks right, he could be more than a situational reliever in a year or two.
That’s good, because while his platoon splits scream “situational righty” the peripherals are a bit weirder. Lefties have torched him, hitting a combined .279/.380/.461 against him, and it’s even worse this year. Meanwhile, righties have a career OBP under .300 against him. Sounds great, right? Well…I’m not so sure. In his career, *every pitch he throws* has a lower whiff rate against righties than lefties. As a result, his K% is better against lefties. He keeps the ball in the ballpark against righties, to be fair, but BABIP is doing a ton of work in those raw platoon slash lines. How can that be, for a plus velo (it’s not plus plus anymore) righty whose primary breaking ball is a slider?
Well, for one thing, his fastballs have almost perfectly average movement. He has a solid spin rate, but something’s not working in translating that into spin efficiency. I’d say there may be a deception thing with righties, but then you’d expect them to miss the ball more than they do (this brings to mind his old teammate Jordan Hicks’ weird mismatch between raw stuff and K% earlier this year). His slider in particular would have to grade pretty poorly against righties, as they simply don’t swing and miss at it as much as other same-handed sliders. It gets grounders, and that’s worth something, but it’s not the kind of putaway pitch you’d typically want from a situational reliever. Luke Gregerson he’s not.
I said it on twitter and I’ll reiterate it here: for this to really make sense, they can’t be thinking about “developing” Tuivailala. The M’s are in a playoff race *today*, and Tuivailala lacks options in any case. If this works out, it’ll be because the M’s have already identified something in his delivery that they can tweak and improve. In his career, Tuivailala’s been a near replacement-level RP, which is why he’s bounced up and down between the majors and AAA. The M’s do not need a ~ replacement-level RP, no matter what kind of potential he’s got. Thus, they need to know what they’re going to do and that that intervention has a good chance of succeeding. What are some of those potential changes?
Right now, Tuivailala throws a sinker and four-seam fastball. He’d been primarily a four-seam guy until this year, when he’s shifted to throwing the sinker more. He’s also reduced his overall FB usage from ~60% in 2016 to the low 50s now. The M’s could simply amp that trend up and have him throw a ton of sliders and his slurvy curveball to righties, using him to avoid lefty match-ups, and putting him in when they need a grounder from a righty. That’s easiest, but I’m not sure it’ll get them a whole lot. The bigger lift would be to drop his arm angle, both to try to get back some of the 1-2 MPH he’s lost since 2015, and to increase the horizontal movement on the pitch. Not only that, but with some hard work, it could help make his delivery a bit tougher to pick up. Clearly, righties are getting a better look at the ball than they “should,” and the M’s should probably work on that. Third, his “Effective velocity” isn’t great – he doesn’t have a long stride that shortens the reaction time hitters have. Fourth, and perhaps most intriguingly, they could work on his slider. The M’s has success changing Marco Gonzales’ curve, which is a big reason he’s throwing it so much more (as JY mentioned). When he came up, it had a noticeably lower release point than his FB. The Cards have largely fixed that, but adjusting the shape of the pitch (which may come with a release point drop), could help disguise it and produce more whiffs.
JY’s have you the run-down in Elledge, but as in any truly fair trade, losing him hurts. He’s got great numbers, has shown the ability to work more than a single inning, and the scouting reports are great. You can’t get a guy with Tuivailala’s promise for a C prospect, and thus the M’s are sending over probably their top RP prospect.
Today, the M’s face familiar for Andrew Heaney in Anaheim as the red hot A’s travel to Colorado.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Haniger, RF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Gamel, LF
9: Heredia, CF
SP: LeBlanc
So…You Want A Situational Reliever?
The M’s have talked publicly about what they want at the deadline this year, and just in case no one got it, Jerry Dipoto reiterated it at the Baseball Prospects night on Saturday. They’re not looking at starters, no matter how well-reasoned by article on that market may (or may not) have been. Instead, with some SP depth, they can limit innings both by moving to a 6-man rotation AND by shortening the games on the back end. Dipoto stated that they’re fine at the end of games, with Edwin Diaz dominating in the 9th, and with Alex Colome…uh…handling the 8th (he’s put up -0.1 fWAR thus far with the M’s which is obviously a ludicrously small sample, but it’s not great to see a negative sign there). Now, they want wipe-out relievers that can come in and handle the 6th/7th innings. They don’t need length out of them, and they don’t need guys who can go multiple innings – they want the situational excellence they thought they were getting from Marc Rzepczinski. Are any situational relievers avaiable in the M’s price range? I’m glad you asked, narrative device!
Righties:
1: The Name-Brand Option
The Marlins are out of it. They’re out of it in a division with two teams loaded with young talent who’ve arrived a bit earlier than expected in Philadelphia and Atlanta. The Nationals are still ever-frustrating, and may look quite different in a year, but they give three really solid competitors, and all of them feature current 40-man rosters that simply outclass Miami’s. There’s a reason why so many of these options currently toil there, is what I’m saying. There’s no real need for the Marlins to hold situational relievers, or shut-down relievers of any stripe, at this point in their development. They need to see if they’re able to develop starters and position players to fill the yawning chasm left by the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna. This isn’t about trying to slash payroll, though I’m sure the Marlins ownership would love that. Rather, it’s about providing some opportunities for players who could conceivably be a part of the next good Marlins team.
Perhaps no one is more miscast on the Marlins than righty Brad Ziegler. Ziegler, the side-arming GB specialist, signed a 2-year, $16 M contract last year, and it expires at the end of 2018. The M’s can easily afford a fraction of $8 M for the rest of the year, and he gives them a very different look than, say, Nick Vincent. I’ve always thought a bullpen needs someone who can come in when a double play ball is in order, and Ziegler’s 73%+ GB% this year would do the trick. In his long career, he’s getting grounders from 2/3 of the batters who put it in play.
Why this makes sense for the M’s: In Ziegler, the M’s would acquire a righty who’s been tough on same-handed bats for a decade, and someone with nearly unparalleled grounder tendencies. If you want “proven” – whatever that phrase means for a reliever – Ziegler is it.
Why this makes sense for the Marlins: Ziegler’s making $8 M this year, and has next to no real utility for them in August/September. His innings could be reallocated to youngsters like Drew Rucinski or Ben Meyer. At this stage, they can’t really expect anything back in terms of talent (low-level lottery ticket), but it would still make sense for everyone.
Why this might give you pause: You know who had a decade-long track record of being tough on same-handed bats? You know who had an amazing GB%? Marc Rzepczynski, that’s who. Also, Ziegler hasn’t been a true shut-down guy against righties this year. He’s been worth -0.5 fWAR – most of that damage has come against lefties, but he’s still giving up a .300 wOBA v. righties, which isn’t exactly what you want from a market-rate ROOGY.
2: The Lesser-Known, Hipster Option
No one in baseball’s induced a higher GB% against right-handed bats this year than one Kevin McCarthy, 26-year old ROOGY for the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are in bad shape right now, but they at least have the lingering memories of their World Series win in 2015 to help them through what may be a painful rebuild. The thing is, most of the hard stuff’s already done – Hosmer followed Dave Cameron to San Diego, Lorenzo Cain’s in Milwaukee – and so it’ll probably be easier for the FO to move guys like Whit Merrifield and, uh, everyone else. McCarthy is a righty reliever who doesn’t miss bats, which is why he could be available. He’s cost controlled for a while, though he’s also the kind of guy who would never command a huge salary given his skillset. But hey, the Royals are interested in Ryon Healy, so I’m sure both teams have already spoken.
McCarthy’s sinker runs just shy of 93, and has solid but not truly remarkable armside run. He pairs it with a change (as well as a slurvy curveball and a tighter slider), which is interesting for a ROOGY. To date, he has not figured out lefties *at all* so again, his ceiling’s quite limited. His change is effective against all hitters, but his fastball is the real story, as lefties apparently get a long look at the pitch and can elevate it. He’s got whatever the opposite of deception is – really debilitating candor, or something.
Why this makes sense for the Mariners: McCarthy does most of what Ziegler does, and he wouldn’t be a rental. If you’re one of the old heads who misses a Sean Green type, well, McCarthy is…not exactly like that, but a 10:1 GB:FB ratio vs. righties could be huge in a bases-loaded, 1-out scenario. I wouldn’t do this for Healy straight up, but if they’re interested in Healy, then make sure we get McCarthy as part of the package coming back.
Why this makes sense for the Royals: Like the Marlins, the Royals simply don’t need situational relievers, and while I’m sure the Royals could build around cost-controlled young players, no one builds around low-K situational relievers. You either need one now or you don’t.
Why this might give you pause: Ziegler’s been around enough to be able to at least fight lefties to a draw. McCarthy’s pretty much sunk if the opposing manager pinch hits, which limits his effectiveness. If you’re targeting big spots in the 6th inning, it could work, but there’s the possibility of a crippling HR to a lefty, or a bunch of intentional walks in his future. The lack of real bat-missing ability is a red flag, too.
3: The Closer-type
Keone Kela, of Highline/Chief Sealth and then Everett Community College, is currently the Rangers closer. He’ll draw plenty of attention as the go-nowhere Rangers retool for another run in a few years. He’s in his first arb year this year, so he’ll get sizable raises over the next few years. Importantly for the M’s, he’s absolute death on a stick against righties, thanks to a fastball/curve combo that’s tough for righties to pick up. In his career, righties are hitting .184 and slugging .276 on his slurvy curveball. He’s a perfectly fine closer for now, but I think he’d be even better as a righty-focused set-up man.
If the fit works well (I’d actually rather have him where Colome’s slotted in now) in terms of role, I’m less sanguine about the fit in trade. The Rangers may get a decent prospect or two for Kela, who’s still cost controlled, and who has the all-important closer tag on him. For a guy with apparent attitude issues for a while, Kela seems to have done well in the closer’s role, though of course the Rangers are about as far from a playoff race as you could get.
Why this makes sense for the Mariners: Kela offers exactly what you want in a righty specialist. He’s got premium velocity and a great breaking ball that righties seemingly can’t quite pick up. He’s fine against lefties, too, so you don’t have to remove him if the opposing manager pinch hits. All in all, he’s better than Alex Colome, so clearly he’d be a great pick-up for the M’s. His price may come down as a result of his recent DL stint with shoulder soreness.
Why this makes sense for the Rangers: The Rangers have already made it clear they’d like to move him, as no team except possibly Miami needs a closer less than Texas. He’ll draw plenty of interest, and should net a solid prospect or two. Dan Vogelbach won’t get it done here, so the M’s are going to need to send over several near-MLB players, and frankly, they don’t have a ton to offer.
Why this might give you pause: Kela’s going to command more in trade than anyone on this list, and has struggled with control at times. Two years ago, he collapsed to a replacement-level season, with an ERA over 6, the product of too many HRs. Since that time, he’s limited dingers remarkably well, but the other side of that coin is that his HR/FB luck could run out at any point. Also: shoulder soreness.
Lefties:
4: High K Potential Relief Ace
Adam Conley, a local kid out of Olympia HS and Wazzu, threw 300 big league innings as a starter. The first 200 were quite good, but the last 100 got him demoted to the minors, and then saw him lose his starting role. He’s worked out of the minors most of the year, but has come up to throw 26+ innings as a reliever, where the Marlins hoped his stuff might play up. It has. Conley’s sinking, running fastball now averages 95+, and with 10″ of armside run, it looks like a true weapon out of the pen. Even better for Conley, it’s made it hard for lefties to elevate. He’s got completely different batted ball profiles against lefties and righties, with lefties pounding the ball into the ground, and righties hitting the occasional fly ball on those rare occasions they don’t strike out.
Unlike the others on this list, Conley isn’t really a true situational guy. He’s just new to relief work, and as of right now, he’s actually fared better against righties. But with that FB boring in on the hands of lefties, and with the makings of a decent slider, there’s no real reason he couldn’t dominate lefties. The problem, such as it is, is that his change-up’s ahead of the slider right now, so he’s striking out righties instead. I can’t speak for Jerry Dipoto, but personally, I’m ok with that.
Why this makes sense for the Mariners: Conley is under team control for three years, costs virtually nothing this season, and looks for all the world like a break-out reliever. Tweaks to his breaking ball akin to the tweaks they made to Marco Gonzales’ should make him even more effective.
Why this makes sense for the Marlins: Conley is now 28, and hits arbitration for the first time next year, meaning he’s due for a big raise. That’s awesome – he’s earned it. He doesn’t have a long track record as a reliever, so he won’t command a ton in trade, but as a guy with three years of arb coming up, the Marlins may decide they’d rather sell high and give those innings to pre-arb players. If that’s what they want to do, the M’s should make a move and happily pay Conley a slightly-higher fraction of what he’s owed.
Why this might give you pause: Conley would cost more than Ziegler in terms of talent. If the Marlins want a legitimate prospect, I can see some wondering if it’s worth it for a non-late-inning reliever. There’s also much less of a track record here. Righties used to hit him fairly hard, and he’s *never* posted decent K rates against lefties. If you want a shut-down guy against same-handed hitters, Conley both might cost too much and do too little. He’s great, but it may just not be the right fit.
5: The classic LOOGY
Alex Claudio is Keone Kela’s teammate with the Rangers right now, and like Conley, he’ll hit arbitration next year. He lacks the velocity and raw stuff of his teammate/fellow lefty Jake Diekman, but he makes up for it in deception and GB tendencies. With a sidearm delivery and a sinker with tons of armside run, Claudio has a GB% over 60%. His slider has loads of horizontal movement, making it a great weapon against lefties. I’d liken his stuff to watching Carson Smith (or Diekman) in slo-mo – it’s doing the same sort of thing, it’s just doing it 10 MPH slower.
Claudio’s been bitten by BABIP this year, and has never really been a swing-and-miss pitcher, even against lefties. That’s largely due to the fact that the slider that has all of that break has been his third pitch. His main secondary pitch is a weird change-up thrown very slow, at around 71. It’s weird because despite its low velo, it actually has *less* sink than his, uh, sinker. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything like that, actually. The M’s could work with him on his slider to be even better against lefties, but even if nothing changes, he’d be a solid option with men on and a lefty at the plate, as he induces tons of grounders against them.
Why this makes sense for the M’s: Claudio gets tons of grounders and lefties have a .204 OBP against him in his career. From a pure results standpoint, Claudio checks the boxes: he gets lefties out, and he doesn’t walk people.
Why this makes sense for the Rangers: I’m mentioned before that a rebuilding team doesn’t really need LOOGYs, but the Rangers actually have two left-handed relievers on the market. Diekman’s better overall, especially as puts his major surgery behind him (he had his colon removed in 2017), and Claudio’s escalating contract may not be as attractive to the Rangers as it would be to the M’s. Even in arb, Claudio’s not going to break the bank. The Rangers should be happy with cost-controlled relievers coming back, and the M’s have plenty to offer.
Why this might give you pause: As funky as his change-up is, it’s not a great bat-missing pitch, and his overall results are down this year. In 2018, the league average reliever strikes out a batter an inning. Even in a specialist role, Claudio will never come close to that, and thus may not be the kind of specialist the M’s really want.
Shane Greene’s now out with shoulder discomfort, Tony Barnette was shut down a while ago with the same problem, so they’re not viable candidates. Zach Britton probably *is*, but as an absolutely dominant former closer coming off of injury, I think he may not quite fit with Seattle. Not only has he not been linked to them in public reports, his stuff’s not quite what it used to be. Britton will help someone, but I doubt it’ll be the M’s. That’s fine, as I’ve shown there are quite a few players who might fit the M’s needs, depending on how you define situational reliever. What would you give up for a 6th-7th inning specialist? How much does that willingness to trade change with the M’s current spot in the race, and how much does club control matter to you?
Game 96, Mariners at Astros – Paxton’s Situational Splits
James Paxton vs. Charlie Morton, 11:10pm
It’s an early one today for getaway day in a pretty important series. Tied at a game apiece, the M’s could get an important psychological and playoff-odds boost by beating the Astros in Houston, and the M’s are handing the ball to their ace, James Paxton.
It’s been another very good season for Paxton, full of the full spectrum of Paxtonian features we’re so familiar with. He’s remarkably difficult to hit, with a H/9 ratio that would rank in the top 10 in the AL if he qualified (he’d be nearly tied with teammate Ariel Miranda, actually). His easy velocity and deathly curveball allow him to rack up strikeouts at obscene rates, even by the K-saturated 2017 standards – again, if he qualified, his K/9 would rank in the top 5 in the AL. On the down side, he’s already spent some time on the DL, which seems almost inevitable at this point, and he’s also got an ERA far higher than his FIP. That last one’s kind of odd, as we often expect pitchers with tons of velocity and bat-missing stuff to post higher strand rates – it’s a lot easier to get out of a jam when you can just strike out a few batters in a row, after all. Paxton’s BABIP’s a lot more normal this year than last, so it’s not that he’s getting BABIP’d to death. Instead, it looks more like a case of struggles with men on base.
It’s easy to chalk that up to random noise. After all, he had a lower ERA than FIP back in 2015 *and* 2014. Of course, Paxton changed everything between 2015 and 2016, so maybe he’s doing something different now. To check, I looked up some statcast numbers to see if I could see why his wOBA is nearly 100 points higher with men on base than with the bases empty this year, and why he’s shown huge splits in this measure 2 years running. For some context, let’s take a look at the league as a whole. The league’s wOBA-against with no one on this year is .323, and with runners on base, it rises to .331. This rise is despite a *drop* in exit velocity on contact from 87 to 86 MPH (though expected wOBA does rise slightly). This makes some sense, as a 1B holding a runner on can provide more holes for ground balls to reach the outfield. Finally, there’s zero difference in the pitch height that pitchers throw or that batters hit with men on vs. not – the league average pitch height is 2.33 feet regardless.
Paxton looks quite different, though. With no one on, his expected WOBA is a dominant .220, which rises to .300 with men on. That huge wOBA spread isn’t purely luck, then; he’s been somewhat unlucky, but the real story is that he’s giving up much different contact in these different situations. The bulk of THAT comes from a huge 3+ MPH jump in the average exit velocity he’s giving up with men on base. Remember, the league as a whole showed *lower* exit velocities with men on. Moreover, his average pitch height changes, dropping about 0.2 feet with men on base. So he’s just throwing it lower, and that’s his problem? No, not exactly. Overall, he’s at his best when he IS throwing low. His wOBA-against is about 100 points lower when the ball crosses the plate 2 feet high or lower – the bottom half of the zone and below. While he’s still got those weird splits with men on base, he’s *still* limiting damage on low pitches (unlike the league, which is hitting more and more HRs off of low pitches). Oddly, it’s not that batters wait for an elevated fastball, either – they hit better on balls near the top of the zone and above, but it’s nothing dramatic. What *is* dramatic is what happens on pitches right in the heart of the zone. With no one on, Paxton gets away with these pitches (.230 wOBA this year, .310 over 2016+2017 combined). With men on, for some reason, he doesn’t (.525 wOBA this year, .423 combined).
Paxton throws more non-fastballs with men on, as many pitchers do. It’s not extreme by any stretch, but he’ll throw more curves and cutters. Batters aren’t hitting those pitches, however – he’s got a tremendous wOBA-allowed on breaking stuff in all situations. This is strictly a fastball problem. Despite throwing more breaking stuff with men on, batters have put a higher percentage of balls in play off of Paxton’s fastball than they have with no one on…when he throws fewer fastballs. This seems like a situation where batters focus in on a very small part of the zone and look for a specific pitch in that zone. When they see it, they swing like hell at it. So what can Paxton do? Well, he might want to throw more breaking balls in these situations. Tom Verducci has a great article at SI today about the Yankees throwing the fewest fastballs despite having a pitching staff with super high average fastball velocity. I’ve mentioned this philosophy a lot this year, as this is essentially the Astros’ game plan, too. Paxton’s got a great fastball, and I don’t think he should adopt a full-on Astros/Yanks-style pitch mix. Rather, in order to have fewer grooved fastballs in situations where grooved fastballs can hurt him most, he should throw fewer of them, and perhaps use them a bit differently.
All of this is small-sample stuff, which is kind of obvious given Paxton’s injury history. I haven’t proven anything definitively. But I hope the M’s aren’t just banking on some regression and not worrying about these splits. Paxton’s been great, and that’s a huge help to the M’s. He doesn’t have to throw many pitches with men on base thanks to the aforementioned greatness and his success at limiting hits. That there’s still some room between his unbelievable talent and his actual runs-allowed is kind of encouraging. Over the past two seasons, Ariel Miranda, acquired for Wade Miley and never a big prospect, has allowed an RA9 of 4.24 in 165 2/3 IP for the M’s. James Paxton, 98 MPH-throwing, curveball wizard, staff ace, has allowed a 4.10 RA9 in that time period, in 208 1/3 IP. In this day and age, that’s pretty good, but if his RA9 was close to his FIP across 2016-17, he’d have allowed *30* fewer runs. That’s…that’s a lot. Throw out all the unearned runs he’s allowed, and if you pulled his ERA down to where his FIP’s been, he’d have allowed around 20 fewer runs in roughly a full season’s worth of innings. As a marginal playoff hopeful, these marginal improvements matter.
1: Segura, SS
2: Gamel, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Valencia, 1B
7: Dyson, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Heredia, LF
SP: Paxton
RISP Hitting
So, recently, Eric Wedge has made news by talking about how Ichiro isn’t producing enough out of the three hole, despite the fact that he’s been one of the team’s best hitters to date. In order to keep this narrative going in the face of factual evidence to the contrary, people have started to point out Ichiro’s batting line with runners in scoring position, because of course we should be making judgments about a guy based on 39 plate appearances.
Anyway, it’s true that Ichiro hasn’t been great with RISP this year. Here’s how his situational splits break down:
Bases Empty: .298/.330/.393, .318 wOBA
Men On Base: .281/.338/.391, .314 wOBA
RISP: .206/.282/.324, .257 wOBA
Now, here are Ichiro’s career situational split numbers:
Bases Empty: .326/.356/.427, .344 wOBA
Men On Base: .316/.392/.396, .330 wOBA
RISP: .317/.424/394, .331 wOBA
You can look at 39 plate appearances and decide that Ichiro can’t hit with men in scoring position, or you can look at 1,500 plate appearances and realize that he can. It’s really up to you, but what kind of conclusion you draw says a lot about your understanding of how the game actually works. People extrapolating from Ichiro’s 2012 RISP numbers either don’t have a grasp of how to actually use numbers or they’re pushing a predetermined agenda and won’t let facts get in their way. In some cases, both statements might be true.
But, hey, if you insist that 2012 situational data is meaningful, here’s some other names of guys who aren’t fit to hit in the middle of a batting order based on their RISP data to date:
Jose Bautista: .203 wOBA
Justin Upton: .209 wOBA
B.J. Upton: .215 wOBA
Jesus Montero: .229 wOBA
Troy Tulowitzki: .234 wOBA
Travis Hafner: .235 wOBA
Justin Morneau: .259 wOBA
Robinson Cano: .261 wOBA
Media members – you don’t have to believe whatever Eric Wedge tells you. He’s wrong an awful lot. Think for yourself, look up the facts, and don’t just repeat his ramblings.
Situational Writing
So, apparently Jim Street is doing “situational hitting” stories once a month now. More often than that, actually, since he wrote a two-story package on the same topic precisely 34 days ago.
With so many old fallback chestnuts available for stories — clubhouse chemistry, veteran leadership, the team’s best bunters, guys that “keep other guys loose,” mental toughness — we’ve got to read about hitting behind the runner again?
Okay, I guess he got that last one. Check it off the list, and move on down to “the injured player out to prove he’s healthy.”
Game 139, Mariners at Royals
Taijuan Walker vs. Ervin Santana, 5:10pm
This should be interesting. Taijuan Walker’s MLB debut was excellent, and the poise he showed in pitching around some serious Mariner defending can’t be overstated. But, many have pointed out, it’s a lot easier to pitch around Raul-being-Raul when you’re dealing with the Astros. And that’s true: the Astros have a team wRC+ of just 88, and they have the lowest contact rate (by far) in MLB. Today’s opponent comes in at #1 in all of baseball in contact rate, which means more might be asked of Mariner defenders – a group Walker’s probably not all that confident in right now. But what level of production have the Royals gotten from that best-in-baseball contact rate? Their wRC+ is, er, 88. The Royals hit everything, but they hit everything poorly. The Royals have some actual hitters, so I’m not going to say that this is an identical test, especially as the Royals can review tape and prepare for Walker a bit more than the Astros could. But this is not a fundamentally more difficult test, it’s just fundamentally different. It’ll be interesting to see how he approaches this start.
Ervin Santana could come home with the Comeback Player of the Year award in the AL this year, as he’s posting a lovely RA/FIP for the Royals – the team lambasted for picking up his salary this offseason. Santana’s always had HR problems, and while he’s not exactly eliminated them, it’s instructive to see what can happen when a player takes a peripheral from “lol” to “OK” or “decent.” Santana has always essentially been a three pitch pitcher, with a four-seamer, a slider and an occasional change. He occasionally worked on a sinker, but not terribly often. His slider’s his bread and butter pitch; he throws it to RHB and LHBs alike, and he’ll throw it in any count. Over his career, it’s consistently gotten low batting-average-on-contact as well as whiffs, but that many sliders mean a lot of opportunities for hangers. As such, he’s given up a number of HRs on it. That’s actually not a huge problem; he’s given up *10* HRs on sliders this year, which is kind of astonishing, but as I mentioned, his overall HR rate is OK. His problem has come in years when his *fastball* gets annihilated. Last year, he gave up 22 HRs on his four-seamer. This year, he’s at 8.
Is it a change in approach, a change in luck? I can’t see much change in how he uses it, but the one thing that jumps off his BrooksBaseball pitcher card is the use of a sinker. Last year, the manually-reclassed pitch type system Dan/Harry use picked up no sinkers. This year, he’s using it for over 20% of his pitches. Is it a great pitch? No, not really, but it’s another look for hitters. This is pure speculation, but this would seem to be a much more important factor in Santana’s improvement than the ballyhooed return of some velocity; Santana’s four-seam velo is up less than 1mph from 2012 to 2013. Santana was just extremely predictable in 2012, using a four-seamer to lefties over 70% of his first pitches and over 70% of the time the batter was ahead in the count. To righties, it was a fairly consistent 60:40 split in those situations. With the re-introduction of a sinker, it’s a lot harder for a batter to guess fastball. This may help his HR rates, and his GB% is up this season as well, which lends some credence to the idea that he’s throwing a lot more sinkers.
All of that said, having the kind of bullpen the Royals have can’t help but make their starters look a bit better than they are. The M’s saw it on Labor Day, when Will Smith came in to strike out Kyle Seager in a key situation, and then stuck around for another 4 innings of dominant relief. As such, it’d be lovely if the M’s got to Santana early. The M’s have faced lefty starters in the past four games, and seven of the past nine, and as you know, the M’s are terrible against lefties. So much of the hand-wringing about situational hitting, or the lack of offense, etc. can be explained by this run of lefty starters. Of course, knowing what’s causing the problem and having a solution are two different things. The M’s are very left-handed right now, and until they acquire actual right handed threats, they’ll be vulnerable to teams rejiggering their rotations to give the Travis Blackleys and Bruce Chens of the world a spot start or two.
1: Miller, SS
2: Gutierrez, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Morales, DH
5: Ibanez, LF
6: Smoak, 1B
7: Ackley, CF
8: Zunino, C
9: Franklin, 2B
SP: Taijuan Walker wooooooo
As you may have seen on TV, twitter, or however it is that you access noteworthy baseball feats these days, A’s 3B Josh Donaldson made a sublime catch of a foul pop-up last night against Texas. The debate about whether baseball itself or certain baseballing acts rise to the level of art is ultimately unresolvable, but I can now point to this poem by Seattle’s own Patrick Dubuque as proof that baseballing acts can inspire art.
The Royals have been staring at the contact rate leaderboard too, it would appear. Today, they called up Carlos Pena from AAA Omaha – the man who was a little bit too three-true-outcomes for even the Houston Astros has arrived to shake things up and get his teammates to live a little, much in the manner of an 80s teen comedy. The article notes that Omaha qualified for the playoffs with a 70-74 record, while the solidly-above-.500 Rainiers’ season is done. Even in the minors, division strength is a huge influence on playoff odds. (hat-tip: Divish).
Saturday’s game thoughts
Betancourt got caught stealing, part of McLaren’s cunning plan to have all his players who can run run all time. Whatever, managers always say they want to run more and work on the fundamentals like situational hitting in spring training. As long as he’s not Hargroving it and having Ibanez thrown out at third by 88 feet stretching doubles, it’s not important.
Zito got shelled. I remember the days when getting Zito was critical, the key piece of the M’s future success. Yeah.
Bedard got shelled, too. Three home runs — woooowww. That’s a lot. I don’t think there’s any call to get hysterical any more than, say, Ichiro’s 0-whatever start, and yet… how about a concerned wince? (Dave says nope – it doesn’t matter at all)
Morrow’s out for a couple days with dead-arm, which sucks. If they’re dead set on stalling his possible career as a starter because the temptation to use him to shore up the bullpen is so irresistible, it’d be nice if he could contribute there. I shudder to think what dregs they might reach for if they think they need “a right-handed set-up man”.
The Giants lineup is astoundingly crappy. That is just an awful offense without Bonds in it. When you’re batting Randy Winn 3rd and a Molina, any Molina, 4th, something’s gone horribly wrong with your offseason. Sure, Dave Roberts was in the other split-squad game, but ugh.
I wonder where Reed’s going to end up if (when) he gets cut.
News of the weekend
Indians Assistant GM and USSM-Endorsed GM candidate Antonetti interviewed for St. Louis Friday. He’s passed up the chance to interview for other GM jobs, so we know at least that it’s attractive enough for him to pursue it.
LaRue in the TNT argues “Wretched Ramirez still worth keeping”
Ramirez is a 27-year-old left-handed pitcher with a career record of 38-29 and a lifetime ERA of 4.61. In 2007, he was wretched – by any standard – but the week the M’s release him is the week another team picks him up.
[…]
GM Bill Bavasi would dearly love to see Ramirez make that trade with Atlanta last year – sending Rafael Soriano to the Braves – look better. But the real reason Ramirez is still here is that he’s a living, breathing pitcher with a history of winning.
Mentioned at length is Pineiro’s contract with St. Louis. Not mentioned: Pineiro was still not good, and the contract given to him doesn’t make that less true. Mentioned? Ramirez’s overall winning record. Not mentioned: there is no evidence that Ramirez can be an effective major league starter. Unless he shows up at spring training with improved control and better stuff, preferably thrown faster, he’s going to be the same sucky pitcher he was last year. What are you going to point to as reason for hope? Stretches of effectiveness? Nope. Good strikeout rate? Nope.
I’ll stop harping on this. HoRam is a bad, bad pitcher.
And to circle back on our new pitching coach: the good
“I have stolen little bits and pieces from each one of the pitching coaches I have worked with,” he said. “One thing I took from all of them is they all tried to work with people individually and not make everybody the same, which is impossible.”
I do always wince when I hear about pitching coaches who insist that all their pitchers throw with a 3/4ths delivery, or whatever their fixation is.
“I am a big, big believer in pitching inside and I will tell you this, the Seattle Mariners will pitch inside next year,” Stottlemyre said from his Sammamish, Wash., home. “I am not afraid of going on record with that, because pitching inside is an absolute must. I think you have to pitch inside to be successful outside.”
Pitching inside is the pitching coach’s “improved situational hitting”.