Carlos Triunfel -> Seattle, Robert Andino -> Outright Waivers
Quick post here, but as first mentioned (at least that I saw) by Dave, the M’s waived IF Robert Andino today. They needed to make a 40-man roster move to bring Jesus Sucre up, so now the 40-man has the correct number of men enumerated. The move also left the M’s an infielder short, so there was some speculation that the M’s may bring up Nick Franklin or, less likely, Tacoma utility man Nate Tenbrink. Either of those two would require yet another 40-man move, and the M’s evidently decided they’d had enough for the day. Carlos Triunfel was already on the 40-man, and can play SS, unlike Tenbrink and kinda-sorta unlike Franklin.
Triunfel had just flown with the Rainiers to Reno, and, upon landing, was instructed to get on the next plane back to Seattle. Odd morning, but I doubt he minds too much. The 23-year old was having a fine campaign in the PCL, though of course he started well last year before going on a several-month slump in the middle of the season. He’s hitting .300/.351/.476, showing more power than he has in his MiLB career. He’s hitting righties better than he has in years, and hasn’t made quite as many unforced errors in the field. His greatest tool is still his 70-75 grade arm, which hasn’t always been paired with 50-grade accuracy. Still, he opened some eyes this spring with solid play at 2B/SS, and obviously got his feet wet with the M’s last September. It’s a nice low-risk, medium-reward sort of a move.
We’ll see if he’s in the line-up tonight or if he’s eligible to come off the bench, the way Jesus Montero did for Tacoma last night. Robert Andino has positional flexibility and a great back-story, so here’s hoping he lands with another team, but I don’t think any M’s fan is sad to see the Andino Era come to a close.
Triunfel Fractures Tibia
Bad news from West Tennessee tonight – Carlos Triunfel suffered a fractured tibia tonight. That pretty much guarantees he’s out for the year.
Triunfel
One of that I just haven’t had the time to maintain this year (thanks to my impending marriage and all) is the Future Forty, so I know the minor league coverage around here has been a bit sparse. Sorry about that.
But I still wanted to highlight Carlos Triunfel’s resurgence for those who hadn’t noticed. The much hyped 18 year old struggled badly early on in the season with performance, injuries, and a suspension for behavioral issues. Not being able to hit in High Desert was a black mark against him, and while everyone agreed that he was still talented, the frustration was beginning to build. His total lack of power didn’t help when people would question his long term value, either, as he didn’t hit his first professional home run until June.
But July and now August have brought new life to Triunfel, who is redefining the phrase on fire. After a .154/.208/.246 month of June (ugh), he hit .371/.405/.586 in July, including launching six home runs. He’d hit one in his entire career heading into July before launching six in a month.
He hasn’t slowed down in August either, going 5 for 13 with a double and a triple since the calendar flipped. And, just to put a cherry on top, he’s 15 for 17 in stolen bases since July 1st and running like crazy. Since the Cal League returned from their all-star break, Triunfel is hitting .361/.405/.563 with 16 extra base hits, 9 walks, 11 strikeouts, and 17 stolen bases in 144 at-bats.
Even after his massive problems early on, his season line is now up to .286/.334/.414. Yes, High Desert is a hitters paradise in a hitters league, and one month of sustained greatness doesn’t mean that he’s solved his consistency problems, but in case you were wondering when he was going to show the talent we’ve been talking about for a while here, well, he is now. Still just 18, he’s adding strength to his body and learning how to do more than just make contact. The addition of power to his already terrific contact rates show just why we think he can be an offensive force in the big leagues.
In a season where few things have gone right, Carlos Triunfel is blossoming as a bright spot.
Triunfel Goes Yard
Teenage wunderkind Carlos Triunfel hit his first home run as a professional for High Desert tonight. The kid needed it, too, as he was just 3 for his last 34 heading into the game. And yes, he played second base again. Not many people have ever thought he’ll stick at shortstop, but this isn’t a permanent move yet – they’re just giving him experience at second base as well.
In other High Desert notes, Gregory Halman blasted two more home runs, giving him 19 on the season in just 243 at-bats. As I’ve noted here before, Halman is a dead ringer for Alfonso Soriano at the plate, and his skillset is almost as extreme – ridiculous power and no concept of pitch recognition. His 14/72 BB/K is actually an improvement over his numbers from last year. He needs a lot of work on his approach, but considering that he’s got 19 home runs and 22 steals on June 10th, it’s hard to argue that there is a better power/speed guy in the organization.
Triunfel’s suspension
Yes, Carlos Triunfel is suspended indefinitely and is not on the High Desert roster. I’ve been hoping that something would come out we could write up, but there’s nothing, so — the M’s best prospect is suspended indefinitely and we don’t have anything to tell you.
Game 21, Mariners at Tigers
King Felix vs. Jordan Zimmermann, 4:10pm
Happy Felix Day!
The M’s take on a Tigers team that’s tied for the lead in the AL Central, and – if the projections are any guide – one of their primary rivals in the hunt for a wild card. They’ll do so with Felix on the mound against Jordan Zimmermann, the former Nat who signed a $110 million deal with Detroit to replace/upgrade the hole in their rotation left by Rick Porcello.
Zimmermann was a low-key star, a pitcher with a fastball that averaged nearly 95 and who racked up at least 3 fWAR in 5 consecutive seasons, and who’d kept his ERA and FIP under 4 while averaging 200 IP for his last 4 years in Washington DC. In his first three outings for Detroit, he tossed nearly 20 innings and didn’t give up a single run. Still, there were some warning signs: Zimmermann’s fastball was down 2 ticks, averaging just 92.4 MPH. And while his walk rate was still better than average, it was higher than his own established level of performance – Zimmermann had kept his walk rate in the vicinity of 5% for years. As the summer wore on, Zimmermann started to feel pain in his neck, and he was DL’d in July after giving up 12 runs in 9+ innings. After returning, he was still not quite the same, giving up another 12 runs in just 2 1/3 IP in 2 disastrous starts. Between bouts of ineffectiveness and trying to work his way back into game shape, he failed to pitch more than 4 IP the rest of the season. The result was a poor overall season line, with K rates far below his established average, higher walk rates, higher HR rates, and lower velocity.
It wasn’t all bad, of course, as he showed flashes of his previous self, and ultimately figured out what was bothering his neck/shoulder (a pinched nerve, apparently). But three starts in to 2017, it’s not like Zimmermann’s back to being the exceptionally steady #2/#3 he was in DC. He’s still walking people, and his K rate is stuck well below average. In DC, Zimmermann’s fastball had slightly less “rise” than most, and was thrown from a 3/4 arm slot. In Detroit, he’s moved his arm slot up, albeit very slightly. This has led to more rise, as more of the spin is back spin as opposed to side spin. There are plenty of reasons why a pitcher might want that, but the results for Zimmermann are a fastball that’s easier than ever to elevate, and one that gets fewer whiffs. In general, a fastball with more vertical movement might be expected to get MORE swinging strikes, but Zimmermann’s ceteris is not very paribus: the significantly lower velocity swamps any effect of more vertical movement (and the movement/arm slot differences are pretty minor).
Zimmermann relies on his fastball quite a bit, and also throws a slider and curve. He’s been toying with a change-up for years, and seems to be throwing more of it this year, but I don’t know if that’s just a fluke or if he has more confidence in it now. He has fairly normal platoon splits – probably a bit on the small side, actually, which is somewhat surprising for a fastball/slider guy. The M’s have their first-choice line-up in there, so hopefully they can get to him early or at the very least run up his pitch count.
1: Segura, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Motter, 3B
6: Vogelbach, 1B
7: Heredia, LF
8: Zunino, C
9: Dyson, CF
SP: FELIX!
Welcome back, Jean Segura. The debate about how to get Taylor Motter ABs will pick up after Kyle Seager returns from his hip issue, but until then, hey, more Motter. Minor leaguer Jonathan Aro, whom the M’s acquired in the Miley-Carson Smith deal, was suspended 50 games for a positive drug test.
Lots going on in the minors, with more players joining affiliates who started the season in extended ST or on the DL. One such player was the unfortunate starter in Tacoma’s bullpen day in Albuquerque yesterday, Rafael Pineda. Pineda was a 30th round pick back in 2013, and first played in Pulaski, a level of pro ball the M’s did away with not long after. Pineda’s been hurt for a while, but made his first appearance since getting a handful of innings in Bakersfield last year. It didn’t go well. He gave up 5 runs in 2/3 of an inning, and that was essentially that for Tacoma in an 12-8 loss. Mike Freeman had 2 hits in his return to AAA, Tyler O’Neill hit his 3rd HR and also had 2 2Bs, and Boog Powell had 4 hits including 2 2Bs of his own. The R’s and Isotopes were scheduled to play today, but it was rained out.
A day after Andrew Moore’s first not completely successful start (the Travs lost to Cards prospect Jack Flaherty and Springfield 8-1), Max Povse had a nearly identical start in a nearly identical game (this time, the Travs lost to Tulsa 8-1). Not creepy at all! Povse gave up 4 runs to Moore’s 3, so his ERA is now 1.82, while Moore’s is *totally different* at 1.46. Chuck Taylor doubled and tripled in a losing effort. One reliever who pitched in the game for Tulsa was a familiar face – Edward Paredes, now in the Dodger org, who pitched for Tacoma and Everett 10 years ago. He was a decent prospect in the M’s system what seems like a lifetime ago. He’s been in the minors so long, he appears in our ancient “Future Forty” prospect lists (Carlos Triunfel – projected star)! Arksansas looks for revenge tonight with Dylan Unsworth on the hill.
Inland Empire scored 7 runs in the middle innings to pull away from Modesto, 9-4. Rehabbing Angel Luis Valbuena had a 2-R 2B, and Matt Thaiss added 2 2Bs for the 66ers, while Braden Bishop extended his hitting streak to 15 and Ricky Eusebio homered for the Nuts. The two clubs play again tonight; no word on the pitching match-ups.
Clinton completed the org sweep by losing 10-7 to the Beloit Snappers. A furious comeback fell a bit short, as Clinton scored 5 in the 9th, but they needed at least 8. Joe Rizzo, the M’s overslot 2nd rounder last year out of a Virginia HS went 4-5, and is now 5-8 in 2 games. This is an aggressive assignment for the teenager, but it’s a great sign that the org believes he can handle it. Nick Zammarelli, one of Everett’s best hitters last year, played his 2nd game and 1st at 1B – he’s off to a good start as well, going 3-9 with a HR in his first action of 2017. Tim Viehoff takes the mound for the Lumberkings tonight.
M’s, Dodgers Complete Classic Change-of-Scenery Trade
The M’s and Dodgers just traded one disappointing ex-prospect for another. I’m sure both fanbases are feeling a similar mixture of disappointment in the return and yet a weird sense of closure. Chris Taylor, the M’s out-of-nowhere SS prospect turned SS of the future turned shrug emoji will head to Los Angeles, while Zach Lee, former bonus baby pitching prospect whom people have finally stopped expecting a big breakout from, will head to Tacoma.
Lee was a highly regarded high school quarterback, and his commitment to play for LSU caused him to slip in the 2010 amateur draft. The Dodgers bought him out of that commitment with a then-team-record $5.25 million signing bonus, and assigned him to the Midwest League in 2011. After a solid debut, he was a consistent top-100 in baseball prospect, though his results came and went. 2012, split between high-A and AA, was a down year results wise, but he made some adjustments and had a great 2013. He was promoted to AAA to begin the 2014 campaign, and his debut happened to be in Tacoma, where he faced off with a brand new shortstop the Rainiers were trying out with Nick Franklin sliding over to 2B. Again, he struggled at the new, higher, level and finished the year with poor stats, but like before, he made some adjustments and had a very good year in the PCL in 2015.
Few prospects have been so scrutinized, so anticipated, than Lee, and that made Lee’s declining K rates as he ascended the Dodgers system all the more worrisome, a fact that led to even more scrutiny. Lee reportedly had mid-90s velocity, but he would commonly work in the high-80s, and his slider and change weren’t big swing and miss pitches. In a perfect world, Lee’s a solid back-of-the-rotation guy who can get lots of ground balls thanks to a well-located sinker, paired with a very firm slider to righties and a change-up to lefties. He’s got a four-seamer with lots of vertical rise, so the M’s could remake him as a high-FB, slow curve fly-ball pitcher if they wanted to.
Ultimately, the Dodgers just ran out of patience with him, and despite a multitude of injuries to their pitching staff, they always had someone else ahead of him in the pecking order. This spring, it was Ross Stripling. Last year, it was Mike Bolsinger. Next year, it…it wouldn’t have been Zach Lee. While nothing about Lee’s path to this point recalls Chris Taylor, the glove-first, no-expectations 5th round pick out of UVA, this sense that not only had he been passed over, but that regular looks were going to be difficult, feels familiar. The M’s SS of the future was supposed to be Brad Miller, the SS they took higher in the draft, and who played in the same conference at the same time as Taylor. Miller flew threw the minors, which actually worked in Taylor’s favor. Despite being drafted a year later, there was always room at a higher level, because Miller kept dominating and needing another challenge. Taylor’s reputation with the glove helped out, but after a swing overhaul, he was hitting far more than even M’s fans would’ve expected, and essentially forcing himself into the conversation at the big league level.
His breakthrough came in 2014, right as Zach Lee’s ascent was stalling out. In his first taste of AAA, Taylor thrived, hitting for more power than ever. After an OPS of nearly 1.000 in April, he hit .391/.452/.652 in May. Brad Miller was a revelation in his 2nd-half debut for the M’s in 2013, but 2014 was a disappointing slog of a season, with his OBP under .300 most all year, and the club grousing about mental mistakes in the field. Taylor was the right man at the right time, and earned himself a shot at a job-share agreement – it helped that Miller hit lefty while Taylor was a righty. The M’s continued to mess around with Miller throughout the next 12 months, moving him to CF, and then to both OF corners. The starting SS job was there for the taking, a fact confirmed when younger SS Ketel Marte started working out in CF for Tacoma.
And then Taylor collapsed. Among the 445 batters who logged at least 100 plate appearances last year, Taylor’s wRC of 23 (a line of .170/.220/.223) was the 6th worst, just ahead of another failed SS-of-the-future, Luis Sardinas. As the gap power and bat-to-ball skills went AWOL, defensive lapses became too much to ignore. Miller wasn’t seizing his job back, or at least, the M’s weren’t thrilled with the idea of just giving it to him by default. Into this sorry state of affairs stepped Ketel Marte, and the rest is history.
I’ll be clear: I saw a lot of Taylor in early 2014, and the guy I saw can play SS in the big leagues. My opinion of Taylor will always be colored by that stretch of high-level play, a level even I have to admit now may be his career peak. I was encouraged that Taylor’s big league debut in 2014 was nearly as encouraging, but any M’s fan knows how those stories tend to end – hell, ask Marte about his nearly-10% walk rate from last year. Given Marte’s emergence, and the new FO’s stated opinion from day 1 in the spring that Marte was the starter, you can make the case that this trade has been an inevitability for 6-10 months. Once the M’s decided that Marte, and not Taylor, was the starter, the M’s needed to move Taylor just as they moved another middle IF prospect, Nick Franklin.
When the M’s acquired Sardinas, I assumed they wanted big league utility depth to stash in AAA. But when Sardinas mashed in the spring and took to playing 3B far more readily than did Taylor, then Taylor’s days in Seattle were pretty clearly numbered. Not only was Taylor not going to beat out the starter, but he wasn’t going to have a shot at the utility role…and both Marte and Sardinas are *younger* than Taylor. The only thing left was to rebuild value with a great season in AAA, and that’s exactly what he’s done. Sure, his brief horror-show of a call-up may have put a dent in that, but it’s nothing compared to 2015.
Zach Lee’s disappointed, and now has no clear role in the Dodgers org. Chris Taylor over-delivered before stalling, and getting passed by younger players. He too has no real shot at a long-term job on this club. To be clear, a change of scenery trade like this doesn’t come with an automatic job opportunity, especially given that both of these clubs are fighting for a wild card spot. Despite the M’s starting pitcher injuries, Adrian Sampson’s ahead of Lee right now, and Taylor’s looking up at an even younger, even more talented incumbent in Corey Seager. But there’s always the chance that a different org, different coaches, and different rosters might afford them more of a shot than they had before. I’ll be the first to admit that I was always high – maybe TOO high – on Taylor, and that it sucks to see them trade kind-of-low on him, especially given that they’re also buying low on Lee. But given the M’s needs and the development of Sardinas, Taylor had no realistic path to playing time here.
So what does Lee need to do? I’m honestly not sure, but I think James Paxton’s development’s been encouraging. That black swan of a development path will get far too much use as an exception that proves a rule, but I’m guessing Lee has more in his arm than he’s shown. If not, there’s only so much you can get in exchange for a guy like Taylor, who can’t get even the extended big league trials that Nick Franklin got due both to his own face-plants and the success of others. Here’s hoping the M’s pitching coaches can unlock something in Lee, who’ll start off in the Tacoma rotation. Here’s hoping Taylor becomes a super-sub for the Dodgers.
One last thing: when these two players met for the first time, back in April of 2014, Taylor stepped in against Lee, who reared back and missed badly with a fastball, plunking the Rainiers SS. Here’s that pitch:
Not a great photo, but it’s one of those cool coincidences that baseball abounds with. That game was a fascinating document about the different paths the M’s and Dodgers were taking. Starting in CF for Albuquerque was another youngster new to AAA, Joc Pederson. The R’s leadoff man was Endy Chavez. Albuquerque featured a couple of ex-M’s flameouts in Miguel Olivo, former-SS-of-the-future Carlos Triunfel, and 2012 Mariner Trayvon Robinson. The Rainiers had prospects like Taylor, Jesus Montero, Nick Franklin and James Jones – all of whom are now in other orgs.
Game 21, Mariners at Rangers
King Felix vs. Wandy Rodriguez, 5:05pm
Happy Felix Day. This is more like it – King Felix on the hill, going for a series sweep. Such a different feeling than King Felix, heroically trying to stop a losing streak almost single-handedly.
The Rangers were projected to be terrible, and for as much as you-can’t-predict-baseball remains true, it’s nice to see some confirmation every now and again. The Rangers have a wRC+ of 71 as a team, or a bit worse than Derek Jeter hit last year. Their staff’s xFIP is 4.19, and they’ve already dealt with injuries to Derek Holland and Yu Darvish. It’s those injuries that have allowed former Astro Wandy Rodriguez another shot in MLB.
The lefty was a minor star with Houston, making his debut in their pennant-winning 2005 team, and racking up some 3-4 WAR seasons from 2007 to 2010. In 2011, he was traded to Pittsburgh, and that’s where the wheels came off. He dealt with minor injuries here and there, but lost his effectiveness pretty dramatically in 2014. The Pirates cut him, despite him having one of their richest contracts, in May of last year. This December, he signed a minor league deal with the dumpster-fire Phillies, but failed a physical. He signed another minor league deal with the Braves, but was cut early this month. The Rangers are trying to resuscitate the lefty’s career, and he actually won his first start against the Angels. The Rangers are risking nothing here, and he may soak up some meaningless innings to save development time for the Rangers’ prospects (or just kill time until Holland’s healthy). But man, these are the games you target as an opponent.
Rodriguez was always a fastball/curve guy. He’s got a four-seamer with tons of vertical rise, a sinker, and that big curve. He’s also got a change-up that he’s used pretty sparingly. His arsenal shouldn’t produce a ton of platoon splits, and that’s what we see – when he was good, they’d be normal, even, or even reversed, and when he was awful, he was an equal-opportunity offender. This isn’t a case where the M’s need to really overload their line-up, though if they do, that’s not the end of the world.
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ruggiano, RF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Weeks, LF
6: Morrison, 1B
7: Bloomquist, 3B
8: Zunino, C
9: Miller, SS
SP: King. Felix.
I know, I know, it’s not the end of the world, but man, the line-up looks different when Bloomquist replaces Seager. It’s equally true that Seager’s played nearly 150 straight games and the M’s really *should* give him more days off.
Apropos of nothing, Chris Taylor hit another double last night. Just…throwing that out there. The Rainiers lost the game 3-1 to Sacramento, however, wasting a pretty good pitching performance from Mike Montgomery. The lefty gave up doubles to ex-Mariner SS Carlos Triunfel AND Ronny Cedeno. The Rainiers have a well-earned travel day today.
Jackson beat Montgomery again 7-6 in 10 innings. DJ Peterson is showing some signs of life, going 2-4 with a double. The two clubs played an early one today on getaway day, and Jackson *again* nipped the Biscuits with a late-inning comeback. Today, DJ Peterson racked up yet another double, part of a 2-5 day. More, please. The star of the day was reliever Trevor Miller, who pitched 3 1/3 IP in the middle of the game, giving up no runs and striking out 7.
Bakersfield lost to Stockton 5-3, but I’d like to tip my cap to Tyler Pike who, while hit fairly hard, struck out 5 and walked only 1 in 5 IP. He was opposed by rehabbing A’s star Jarrod Parker, but the Blaze got to the lefty, scoring 3 runs in 5 IP, with Justin Seager picking up a 2B. Today, Edwin Diaz pitched six more brilliant innings, striking out 7 and giving 3 hits, 1 walk and no runs. The Blaze beat the Ports 2-1 on a Luis Caballero walk-off single in the 9th.
Clinton beat Wisconsin 7-2, behind a good start from Pat Peterson, who struck out 10 in 5 IP. Arby Fields homered for the L-Kings, and Gianfranco Wawoe extended his hitting streak to 13. Today, the TimberRattlers got their revenge, clubbing Clinton 10-2. Lukas Schiraldi was bad, and Osmer Morales was equally bad in relief. Joe DeCarlo had a good game at the plate, and yes, Gianfranco Wawoe got another hit and two walks. His slash line is now .365/.443/.500.
Rainiers Opening Day/PCL Preview
Now that JY has helpfully gone over the entire roster, as well as those of the other full season affiliates, let’s focus on Tacoma. The Rainiers begin their season in El Paso, taking on the mighty Chihuahuas, the San Diego club that’s starting its second season. The pitching match-up pits Seattle’s 2014 co-minor league pitcher of the year in Jordan Pries against aging two-way threat Jason Lane, who started a game against the M’s in spring training this year. As I mentioned in that game preview, Lane, now 38, spent years in pro ball as an OF, peaking in 2005, when he was a starting corner OF for the Houston Astros, hitting 26 HRs. He’s been kicking around the PCL for years now, and got called in to pitch in blowout games about once or twice a year. In 2013, the Pads decided to have him concentrate on pitching, and he ended up making 24 starts for El Paso last year (as an NL affiliate, Lane got a handful of at bats, too – and he put up an OPS over 1.000 in 69 at bats, including 3 HRs. Even at 38, I still dream of him getting at least one year as a Brooks Kieshnick-style reliever/pinch-hitter).* He even got a call-up to San Diego, throwing 10 pretty good innings, giving up only 1 run. Lane’s “fastball” averages 86-87, and while he doesn’t have the command to keep it down or on the black, he has remarkable good control for a guy who converted to pitching in his mid-30s. His best pitch is a change-up that runs 79-80, and has some armside run. Lane throws it to righties and lefties alike, and seems to be able to keep it away from RHBs.
Jordan Pries opened a lot of eyes in camp, including the pair that matter – those of Lloyd McClendon. The Rainiers rotation also includes Roenis Elias, but Pries may get a shot later in the year in case of injuries or when rosters expand. Pries relies on a sinker at 90-92, a slider and a change. His stuff looks fairly pedestrian from the stands, which is why he fell to the 30th round out of Stanford and hasn’t appeared on M’s prospect lists – it doesn’t help that he’s a bit undersized, either. But the righty took advantage of an opportunity and put together a solid PCL season in 2014, and followed it up with an even better spring. Some improvements this year could have him as a 5th-starter option down the road, particularly if he hones the sinker to be a true ground-ball weapon. The movement on the pitch looks good, but he’s never actually got many ground balls compared to his league. In a league like the PCL, grounders would be nice.
Tonight’s Rainiers line-up looks like this, and game time is 6:05pm. It’s on MiLB.tv, and 850am radio in the south sound.
1: Marte, SS
2: Jones, CF
3: Romero, RF
4: Montero, 1B
5: Gutierrez, LF
6: Hicks, C
7: Blash, DH
8: Rivero, 3B
9: O’Malley, 2B
SP: Pries (RHP)
Go Rainiers!
If you’d like a run-down on the other PCL clubs, there are many words on the subject after the jump.
Read more
Game 111, Braves at Mariners
King Felix vs. Alex Wood, 7:10pm
It’s nice to be back, and it’s nice to start a series like this one with so much importance to both the AL and NL wild card races. Like the M’s, the Braves begin play two games back of the 2nd wild card spot, and like the M’s, Fangraphs’ playoff odds thinks they’re a better club than the team immediately ahead of them. The M’s case gets trickier because of the number of teams in the race, but the point is the same: these are two extremely evenly matched teams with a lot to gain.
The Braves are coming off of a dispiriting sweep in Los Angeles, while the M’s are probably just as frustrated about how they dropped a series in Baltimore. The M’s at least get to turn to their ace, and the prohibitive favorite for the AL Cy Young race, Felix Hernandez. The Braves counter with the underrated Alex Wood, a lefty with a 90mph four-seam fastball, and a solid change and curve. I say underrated because Wood’s had to work as a swing man with the Braves this year; just a few weeks after being one of the starters in the best pitcher’s duel in years, he moved to the bullpen. Think back to April/May and how dominant the entire Braves rotation was* – Julio Teheran was emerging as an elite starter, Ervin Santana looked like the FA pick-up of the year, and Aaron #@%ing Harang had turned back the clock to 2006.**
Alex Wood is an object lesson in the value of consistency. Despite being bumped around from rotation to the pen in both 2013 and 2014, he’s shown nothing in the way of a performance drop in the rotation. His OBP against as a reliever was .315, but as a starter, it’s .314. Sure, he’s been hit harder, as his SLG% against skyrockets from .360 all the way to .369, but still. His OPS against vs. righties is .685, and against lefties it’s .673. At home, it’s .674, and on the road, it’s .689. He’s pretty much exactly what he is, whatever role the Braves ask him to perform in, and who he’s facing, and where. How? Again with the consistent thing. There’s nothing you can really point to and say, “there, THAT’s the pitch that’s made him a success.” His FB was never overpowering, and he – somewhat worryingly – lost about two MPH from 2013 to 2014, but just about nothing else changed. The pitch has a great deal of horizontal movement to it, and thus he’s got an above average whiff rate with it. By BP’s Pitch FX leaderboard, he ranks 56th of 156 pitchers who’ve thrown a four-seamer at least 200 times this year. The change-up’s even better, with a 33% whiff rate, good for 26th out of 60 starters. Wood’s curve ranks 33rd of 72 qualified starters. There’s no obvious, game-changing weapon in his arsenal, but there’s also no just-get-it-over, “I wanted to give them a different look” style bad pitch, either. Roenis Elias’ curve AND change rank far better than Wood’s, by either pitch-type linear weights or whiff/swing, but Elias’ fastball(s) aren’t all that effective. Erasmo Ramirez’s change-up STILL turns MLB hitters into Mark Reynolds, but that fact hasn’t helped him become a reliable big league starter, which, when you think about it like that is kind of remarkable.***
Anyway, I think my favorite example of Wood’s consistency has to do with his curve. Like many pitchers, he throws it to righties and lefties alike, and like many pitchers, he prefers to keep it down. But unlike most pitchers, he doesn’t care about batter handedness or tendencies or “soft stuff away” or any of that. Instead, he throws the pitch to his designated curve ball spot. Seriously. Here’s his curve heat map to lefties:
And here’s his curve ball heat map to righties:
When a guy’s really getting hit hard, the color guy will often chide him for “aiming the ball.” That’s a wider, more nuanced definition of the word “aiming” perhaps, but this…this looks like the real thing. Alex Wood throws some pitches, and then essentially attempts to play darts or horseshoes with his curve. This is taking the guesswork, the over-analysis and the over-thinking out of the enterprise and replacing it with clean, unbending simplicity. A simplicity that starts with not trying to do too much – with a recognition of one’s own fallibility, and in the end looks inseparable from an almost overbearing confidence. This is Bauhaus baseball.
M’s line-up:
1: Jackson, CF
2: Ackley, LF
3: Cano, 2B
4: Morales, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Denorfia, RF
7: Morrison, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Taylor, SS
SP: FELIX HERNANDEZ DULLS PAIN AND MAKES YOU MORE ATTRACTIVE TO OTHERS
Taijuan Walker got roughed up a bit in yesterday’s start in Albuquerque, giving up 8R in 2 1/3 IP, including a grand slam to Carlos Triunfel. Dosger prospect and Miguel Olivo chew toy Alex Guerrero also homered in the game, that one coming off of Blake Beavan. Jordan Pries starts tonight for the Rainiers in Albuquerque.
* An underrated part of the Braves’ pitching is their primary catcher, Evan Gattis. Gattis is in the line-up for his bat, and his wRC+ is the best on the team, ahead of Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman. Gattis was always seen as a bat-first guy, and someone other teams might look to run on when they got on base. And those teams aren’t wrong! Gattis leads the league in wild pitches allowed despite not qualifying for the batting title because he’s played in dozens fewer games than the guy he’s tied with, Tyler Flowers (who two weeks ago started wearing glasses). But framing, man, framing. The Braves probably expected a massive decline from Brian McCann, reliably among the league leaders in framing runs, but they’ve instead replaced him with yet another elite framer, if various metrics are to be trusted, and, critically, if they’re isolating just the catcher and not some other, more global factor.
** Harang’s start, and his entire 2014 season, is one of the reasons I imagine the gap between the AL and NL is larger than it seems to be statistically. I *saw* Harang last year. I know what he can do, and what he can’t do. If Harang’s a well-above average SP in your “major league” then I’m at least a utility infielder or situational right hander. Yes, yes, I know there’s some kid in Arizona who probably thinks the AL sucks because Brandon McCarthy’s tearing it up with the Yankees, but his underlying peripherals clearly showed he was undervalued, and you have to account for defense and park and I am now arguing with a hypothetical child.
*** Maybe Erasmo is the Craig Hodges of baseball. Or the Billy Hamilton, if Billy Hamilton was more like the plus-plus run, absolutely-no-hit-at-all player we thought we were getting.