Game 86, Yankees at Mariners
Justus Sheffield vs. Jameson Taillon, 7:10pm
The Yankees come to town in turmoil. Another late-inning collapse by the previously untouchable Aroldis Chapman pushed them to 42-41 and 4th place in the AL East. They’re 10.5 games behind Boston and 6 back of Tampa. Their offense – a murderer’s row on paper – ranks 20th in fWAR, just ahead of the M’s in 25th. Despite a pitching staff that ranks 3rd by FIP-based WAR, their ERA ranks 11th. They’ve underperformed their base runs and seem like the anti-Mariners in just about every way: bad in the clutch despite immense talent at essentially every position.
Tonight’s starter was supposed to be their Gerrit Cole clone: another former Pirates prospect who’d been sporadically successful/healthy but who possessed undeniably great raw stuff. And it’s partially working, as Taillon’s K rate is nearing 25%, the highest of his short career. He’s throwing his mid-90s fastball up in the zone and generating plenty of swings and misses, but his ERA has spiked to well over 5 in New York.
The culprit’s been home runs. As Taillon’s searched for extra whiffs on his Sewald-style low-efficiency/cut-four-seam, he’s pushed his ground ball rate to below 33%, a far cry from the mid-40s he ran in Pittsburgh. But unlike Cole who had more velocity *and* extra-sticky goop to maximize his spin and movement, Taillon’s sinking four-seamer has been hit for seven dingers in the early going.
Worse, his secondary pitches have all backed up a bit. He’s got a change in the high-80s that looks great, but that batters are destroying this year. He has a slider at 87 and a curve at 81, and he’s able to throw all of them from a pretty consistent point. It just…hasn’t mattered. Lefties have had some trouble with Taillon’s fastball, but are absolutely crushing any non-heaters they come across, while righties are holding the secondaries to a draw, but are doing better against the fastball.
Justus Sheffield’s had an up-and-down season, and tonight’s task is a tough one despite his home park’s offense-suppressing ways and the Yankees’ struggles. One of the reasons fans have latched on to as a way to explain the Yankees’ struggles is that their line-up is overly right-handed. They do have slightly better stats against lefties, but their platoon splits aren’t that wide. The problem is that Sheffield’s got platoon splits too, and he’s really struggled against righties this year. His slider continues to be an effective pitch against RHBs and LHBs, but the change and sinker have taken a step back this year.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Fraley, CF
6: Torrens, C
7: Bauers, DH
8: Moore, 2B
9: Long, 2B
SP: Sheffield
Tacoma (28-23, 2nd in their division) beat up on Reno 15-7 at Cheney last night despite being out-hit. Jose Marmolejos, Jose Godoy, and Jantzen Witte all homered. Marmolejos’ slash line in AAA is now .349/.452/.679. David Huff gets the start for Tacoma tonight in the AAA-West’s getaway day.
Arkansas (27-26, 4th in their division) hosts Frisco (#1 in the AA-Central) tonight behind Alejandro Requena.
Everett (34-18, #1 in High-A West) travels down to Eugene to face the Emeralds. Juan Then starts for the Frogs. It’s been a somewhat disappointing start thus far for Then, who’s posted 32Ks in 34 innings, giving up 22 runs on 33 hits and 15 walks. That all works out to a 5.56 ERA.
Modesto (32-22, 3rd in their division) hosts the Stockton Ports tonight. Modesto’s won 8 in a row.
Why Can’t Anyone Hit Paul Sewald?
Sorry for the week off; I’m back from a road trip in Oregon. No, I wasn’t felled by the heat wave, though hanging in Portland last Sunday was an experience I can only describe as surreal. I just took a week off to hang in Central Oregon and jump into whatever stream or river presented itself. Some parts of this were in non-WiFi/cell service range, and while I could’ve/should’ve posted something in those areas that DID, I have to admit, it was kind of nice to shut all of it out. And hey, the M’s continue to play well, so that was something of a nice surprise to return to.
But enough about that. We need to talk about Paul Sewald. No, this is not a post I ever thought I’d write, but the 2021 NRI/minor league signing has quickly become one of the team’s best bullpen arms – the best, per Fangraphs, in fact. The M’s (like all teams) have seen something like this before, where an unheralded NRI gets great BABIP luck or strands a ton of runners, and it’s awesome to watch before regression spoils the party (Roy Corcoran is the classic M’s example). But at least thus far, that’s not been what’s driving Sewald’s results at all. He’s essentially doing it all himself, with a K/9 approaching *16*. He is bullying opposing hitters with one of the most untouchable – and strangest – pitches in the game: a 92 mph fastball.
There really isn’t anything that jumps out at you when you look at Sewald’s best pitch. By pitch type values, it’s the 5th best heater in the game on a rate basis, just behind Kendall Graveman, and somehow ahead of Jacob deGrom’s. It’s not thrown with elite velocity, and while Sewald generates above-average spin with it, he’s below average in spin efficiency, leaving him without elite movement. It’s thrown at an odd angle, as the side-arming Sewald releases the ball at around 4 and a half feet off the ground, quite a ways away from a more normal 3/4 delivery that’d come out at around 6 feet off the ground. But even there, side-arming FB/SL relievers are hardly rare, and it’s not a freakishly low release like Tyler Rogers has. It’s different, but not necessarily better.
Does he rely on pinpoint command? No, the guy sporting a BB% near 12% does not boast freakish control, and that doesn’t seem likely to change. Is Sewald’s Fastball relying on surprise? That is, is his slider the real weapon that batters need to be aware of, so they’ll take the odd fastball even when it’s over the plate? MLB’s swing/take stats show he’s done well in the heart of the plate, but that includes swings as well, and in any event, his slider’s been below-average this year. Sure, he’d upped his usage of it in the early part of this season, but over the course of the year, he’s going to the fastball more and more.
Sewald’s fastball has essentially average vertical break and a bit more horizontal run than average. That said, if anything, it’s slightly less than you might guess given that sidewinding motion. His slider has above-average spin efficiency, and mirrors his fastball’s spin pretty well, a point made in this great article by Michael Ajeto over at LL recently. With his arm angle, you’d expect lower vertical rise and more armside run, and you might expect even more now that Sewald’s lowered his arm angle this season from about 4.7′ to 4.5′.
But these skills and changes seem pretty middling given the sheer dominance that we’re witnessing here. Flattening his arm angle would be great if he was using that armside run and sink to send his ground ball rate through the roof. But no, the sidearming Sewald has a GB% below 27%. How does that happen? Because Sewald throws his fastball up in the zone.
That helps explain the GB% and we’ve known for a while that you can fractionally increase whiffs by throwing heaters up, but I don’t think it’s quite enough to explain how an NRI can pitch like early-career Aroldis Chapman for a few months. Deception is undoubtedly playing a pretty big role here, and that’s harder to measure, but I think the best way to explain this is to look for a comp: is there anyone else out there striking out a ton of batters with an underpowered fastball thrown high in the zone? Especially one that’s got low spin efficiency and thus without tons and tons of vertical movement?
Yes, there is. It’s a pitch I’ve been talking about all year, going back to spring training. This is Freddy Peralta’s MO. Peralta releases the ball just over 5′ off the ground, throws 93 with above-average spin, and has a velocity-adjusted-spin rate of around 25.5-26. Sewald’s a tick above 26, but they’re right there. When he came up, Peralta threw 75-80% fastballs, but he’s having his best season in 2021 despite reducing his fastball usage to around 50-55%. Peralta’s spin efficiency is 83.3, Sewald’s at 83.6 (ranking them 273rd and 281st in MLB).
I’d initially compared Peralta’s heater to his teammate, Josh Hader’s. But while there are some similarities, they’re really quite different. Hader has plus velocity, for one thing, and ranks #1 in spin efficiency, with 100% active spin. Still, the thing that jumps out at you is that both are able to throw them to batters who 1) know the pitch is coming and 2) know the general area that pitch will target.
It’s kind of wild to think of how many traditional nostrums of pitching these fastballs violate. You want a high-spin pitcher to improve their efficiency to generate more movement – but Peralta and Sewald don’t, and don’t have any reason to at this point. You want a pitch thrown with sidespin or from a low angle to sink and target the knees or a bit below – but Peralta and Sewald have made their mark by staying up. Everyone knows a low arm-angle pitcher, especially with a FB/SL repertoire, will face platoon split problems – but Sewald’s been *better* against lefties this year (small sample alert), and while Peralta has regular platoon splits, he’s effective against both lefties and righties.
So we’ve found a similar pitch, but I’m not sure we’ve found why they’re both so effective. I think there’s something confusing about the way the pitch behaves due to the amount of cut both Sewald and Peralta impart. They’re throwing high in the zone with a ball that doesn’t move the way traditional high fastballs do, and their arm angles heighten that sense of confusion. Craig Kimbrel has made a name for himself throwing high, low-efficiency fastballs up, and he may be an honorary member of this small club, but he also has plus to plus-plus velocity, so he gets there somewhat differently. The Pirates’ Richard Rodriguez is another low-grounder, high K (uh, until this year) pitcher relying on a 93mph fastball up in the zone, but he surpasses even Sewald in both spin and efficiency, and seems to have a slightly different approach based on throwing high *and away* fastballs to both lefties and righties, leading to a ton of opposite-field contact. Sewald’s doing similarly, but doesn’t have such a clear pattern by batter handedness. Still, Rodriguez doesn’t have the super-low release point that Peralta and Sewald use.
Ultimately, it’s probably a mix of his slightly higher velocity (something he flashed in 2019), some improved deception, and increased belief in his own fastball. Sewald’s throwing it in the zone more than ever, and thus is getting more swings than ever. The key question is, as always, can this continue? I’m not sure anyone can do *this* consistently, but it’s an approach that’s paying off and doesn’t scream luck. Sure, his 0% HR/FB ratio will change; you can’t get that many fly balls to stay in the park in 2021, especially without great command. But I think he’s a better true-talent strikeout pitcher than any of us ever imagined, probably including Sewald himself. Peralta’s up-and-down last few years (and Kimbrel’s as well) points to the fact that he will probably have some ups and downs, but Sewald seems like a legitimate late-inning arm for the M’s, and he’s been a key reason why they’ve been so good in one-run and extra-inning games.
Game 77, Mariners at White Sox
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Carlos Rodon, 5:10pm
The resurgent M’s face another tough test as they face the AL Central-leading White Sox in Chicago. After sweeping the Rays at home, can they sustain this momentum in a very different run environment?
Perhaps more pertinent for any discussion of baseball these days…can they sustain quality pitching performances now that umpires are searching pitchers for sticky stuff? Certainly, Yusei Kikuchi’s spin rate was down dramatically in his last start, though that start was extremely successful. Will it continue that he’s in a park that isn’t so helpful to pitchers? Eno Sarris and Britt Ghiroli have a good article at the Athletic trying to measure the impact on runs that the current collective spin rate collapse may have, and they find evidence of a big impact. And Rob Arthur’s work at BP shows just how big of a drop it really is – this is essentially unprecedented.
But I’m still not sure it’s that simple, or that the results are going to be so uniform. Kikuchi’s four-seam fastball’s spin rate plunged over 200 RPMs from his seasonal average in his last start, but all it did to the pitch’s movement is reduced its rise by 1″, while it gained 1″ in horizontal run. That’s…fine. None of this is happening in a vacuum; teams can help pitchers adjust by adding or reducing spin efficiency and understanding how to use a pitch that might move slightly differently. A big drop in four-seam RPM would be a serious problem for an over-the-top high-fastball and low-curve combination pitcher. Or at least, that’s who might need to make the biggest adjustments, and as much of baseball twitter has pointed out, it’s going to be fascinating to see how Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole look the rest of the way. Sinkerballers like Kendall Graveman figure to be nearly unaffected, as they *already* generate their crazy movement without high spin.
Kikuchi, despite his solid fastball and better-than-average fastball, he’s never had a high spin-to-velocity ratio, and he’s always had a remarkably varied spin rate between and even within games. I’m inclined to think this won’t do all that much to him, or at least, any effect will be buried beneath park and weather effects. Rob Arthur’s done some work to disentangle all of that, but I’m not capable of it, so we’ll just have to catch up on this after another handful of Kikuchi starts.
He’ll face Carlos Rodon, one of the AL’s best starters this season, and a potential Cy Young candidate with a no-hitter under his belt and one of the highest fWAR in the junior circuit, despite missing some time. He was revelatory when the M’s saw him in the season’s first week, but has maintained that pace since. His K% is 3rd in baseball, and tops in the AL – at 36.6%, he’s above Gerrit Cole, Shohei Ohtani, Freddy Peralta, and Tyler Glasnow. He’d shown flashes of this kind of bat-missing ability, but frankly, the last time he was pitching like this was his sophomore season at NC State, the kind of year that made him the odds-on favorite to go first overall in the following year’s draft. But as we’ve seen in his pro career, he’s been subject to fluctuations in velo and effectiveness, and the White Sox got him with the third pick. After he started well in MLB, he lost velocity, confidence, and effectiveness, and struggled to stay on the field.
Rodon’s resurgence has been unbelievable. His velocity is back to 96, and he pairs that with his best pitch, his slider, at 86. Batters are slugging .069 off that pitch this year, with just 5 hits against 58 strikeouts. He used to throw a sinker, but it was never all that effective, and he seems to have abandoned it a few years ago. Now, his third pitch is a change that will miss the occasional bat, but isn’t near the quality of his other two offerings.
The M’s continue to make plenty of moves. Over the past week, they’ve brought in corner IF Wyatt Mathisen from the Rays and corner OF Jake Hager from the Brewers (and, earlier in the year, the Mets). Both have shown a high propensity to swing and miss, but Mathisen was great in the PCL for Reno in 2019, and may do well for the Rainiers. Hager struggled for years as a Rays farmhand before breaking out in 2018. Unfortunately, he broke back in again, and was ineffective in 2019. The Mets signed him to a minor league free agent deal, then sent him back to Milwaukee, who’ve sent him to Seattle just to feel the feelings they had passing around Jacob Nottingham again. I guess. To make room, the M’s DFA’d Danny Zamora, and also transferred Evan White to the 60-day IL. Hmmm.
Keynan Middleton is back in Seattle, which is good, as I don’t think he ever should’ve left. What’s done is done, and the M’s are committed to this bizarrely active roster management scheme. He’s been up and down in Seattle, and his raw stats aren’t great, but he was getting very high leverage innings; I wonder what Servais thought of his demotion? In any event, he kind of overwhelmed the AAA-West, and I’m curious to see if he retains that confidence and swing-and-miss stuff he found down in Tacoma.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, C
6: Bauers, LF
7: Torrens, DH
8: Moore, 2B
9: Fraley, Cf
SP: Kikuchi
The Cubs threw a combined no-hitter against the Dodgers last night, giving us 7 no-nos thus far in 2021, tying the record for most in a season. It was, I suppose, the first no-hitter after the league’s stickiness crack down.
We’ve all noted super-streaky hitter JP Crawford’s torrid hitting, and how it’s transformed a line that was initially “gross” to “meh” to “that’s legitimately not bad.” Unfortunately, the M’s have another super-streaky hitter hitting right after him. Mitch Haniger is hitting .218/.254/.363 since May 18 – that’s in 130 PAs. He had an .894 OPS going into May 18th, and it’s at .772 now. Worse, his OBP has collapsed from .324 to .294. He’ll bounce back – this is part of the deal with streaky hitters. But despite the super high-highs we’ve seen from him, he’s now hitting .234/.304/.471 (.775 OPS) since the beginning of 2019, and this may kind of be what he is. To be clear: that level of production is quite good; he’s no drag on the offense. A 112 OPS+ is helpful, and it’s a reminder that low averages look worse than they often are. But as we approach the trade deadline and the M’s consider what to do with him, the lack of 130 OPS+/wRC+ figures in recent years may depress his value. I’ve often thought the M’s should try and keep him, but if they’re blown away by an offer, they should take it. I’m less confident they’ll get an offer that forces their hand.
Jarred Kelenic homered twice and Ian McKinney got his first AAA win last night in Albuquerque. McKinney gave up 1 R in 6 IP with 8 H, 1 BB, 5 Ks. The R’s won 7-1. Cal Raleigh continued hitting with 2 hits on the night, leading to this great Mike Curto blog post. He’s demolishing lefties, but the big split takeaway is perhaps not a big surprise: he’s feasting away from spacious Cheney Stadium, with a 1.310 OPS compared to a still-good .842 at home. Darren McCaughan gets the start today.
Arkansas lost to NW Arkansas despite new Traveler Brandon Williamson tossing an immaculate inning – in the first inning of his AA career. He’d previously thrown one this year for Everett. Things went a little rougher after that, as Williamson yielded 7 H and 4 R (1HR) in 5 IP and took the loss. Brian O’Keefe had an RBI double for the Travs. Recent AA-Central pitcher of the week Penn Murfee takes the mound tonight.
Everett blanked Tri-City 4-0 behind Levi Stoudt’s 5 2/3 scoreless with 7 Ks. Dayeison Arias followed him up with 2 1/3 dominant IP with no hits and 6 Ks. Wow. Patrick Frick homered for Everett. Emerson Hancock starts for Everett tonight.
Lake Elsinore and starter Jason Reynolds were too much for Modesto, and won 6-1. Victor Labrada had three hits for the Nuts,
Game 75, Rockies at Mariners
Chris Flexen vs. Kyle Freeland, 7:10pm
The M’s are officially red hot, sweeping the Rays to move two games over .500. Their spotty pitching has looked solid, and their line-up is capable of scoring runs, even at home, but they’ve retained their amazing performance in close/late situations. This remains a deeply flawed team, and their path to contention remains incredibly difficult given the number of good teams ahead of them in the wild card hunt. But still! That I’m even looking at the wild card hunt is a good sign.
You know who *isn’t* looking at the wild card standings? The Rockies. After paying St. Louis to take Nolan Arenado off of their hands, the deeply troubled Rockies fired their GM. I say troubled, but let’s remember that the club made the playoffs in 2018 and 2017. Those clubs were good, and good in many ways. They had the homegrown position player core of Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon, and while some of their FA/trade acquisitions didn’t quite work (Ian Desmond), enough of them did (DJ LeMahieu) that the whole offense was a net plus. More interesting, though, was their pitching staff. Long unable to develop pitchers – and of course, their home park was a part of that – they suddenly figured something out. Tonight’s starter, Kyle Freeland, was perhaps the biggest success: he went 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA for the Rockies in that great 2018 season. But he had company: German Marquez had a sub-4 ERA in 2018 after a strong rookie year in 2017. Jon Gray, the 3rd overall pick in 2013, was inconsistent, but had the highest upside of the group.
Moreover, they did something really odd, particularly for the post-juiced-ball era of 2016-2019. I mentioned it here back in 2017, and said I had no idea what the hell they were doing. The Rockies led baseball in *both* four-seam fastball percentage and ground ball rate. In general, these things are negatively correlated: the more four-seamers you throw, you’d expect your GB% to go *down.* This wasn’t a one-year fluke, either. They were #1 in both in 2017, then #3 in both in 2018, then #1 in both in 2019. They had found one weird trick, and they were gonna use the hell out of it.
Let’s check in on them this season: #1 in four-seams, and #2 in grounders. This is pretty remarkable, if you think about it. Four-seamers have some advantages over other fastballs; they generally get more swings-and-misses than sinkers, and can lead to lower batting averages-against due to better odds of inducing a pop-up. The traditional cost has been a much higher likelihood of a swing turning into a homer, but if you could get the good stuff *and* ground balls? That’d be amazing. At a park like Coors, it could turn you into an instant contender, and, well, it did. The Rockies finished 8th in fWAR in 2017 and 9th in 2018. But something went seriously wrong in 2019, as the even-juicier baseball helped push their HRs-allowed to early-2000s levels, crashing their value to 27th in baseball that year. Like Gallagher or perhaps Andrew Dice Clay, they kept doing the same show, but audiences weren’t impressed anymore.
Kyle Freeland is the microcosm of the Rockies pitching as a whole. He came up and had a lot of success throwing his 92-93 mph four-seam from the left side, and he’d mix in sinkers, sliders, and a cutter. His best secondary is a firm change-up at 86, with nearly identical movement to his sinker. Both of his fastballs generated a lot of grounders. With the sinker, that’s understandable, but why would his four-seam? Because it, too, sinks like crazy. It’s a high-spin pitch, one of the highest on the club, but it has very little rise. The reason? It’s essentially a cutter. Freeland throws a high-octane cutter at 92, and then a more slider-y thingy at 86 with essentially inverse movement to his change. This approach was highly effective in 2018, as he not only got plenty of grounders, but more pop-ups than average. All of this pushed his HR-per-fly ball rate down, an amazing result in Colorado. How would it fare against the new, lower-drag baseball? Poorly!
Freeland got annihilated in 2019, as his HR/FB luck ran out, and in fact, flipped against him. His K rate has dropped every year since 2018, from 20.5% that year to 15.1% in 2020 and 11.3% this year. The home runs don’t stop even though the ball’s been deadened slightly. Oh, and his walk rate’s up. Freeland comes into tonight with an ERA nearing 10 and seemingly bound for a demotion, the way Jon Gray went from opening day starter to AAA starter in the same year a little while ago. It’s remarkable that the staff as a whole retains their ability to generate ground balls, but even with a ball that doesn’t fly as far, they simply can’t get outs. They are comfortably in last place in K/9 this year, and they’re in the top 10 in HR/9. It’s ugly.
Freeland’s only made 5 starts this year, but his 2021 struggles look much the same as his awful 2020. Freeland needs help, and I’m not sure he’s going to get it from his organization. Every pitch he’s throwing right now is getting tagged; batters are slugging .565 off of his four-seam since the start of 2020, and .620 off of his sinker, and .588 off of his cutter. I’m sure his confidence is shot, a process we watched with Gray. The rotation’s being carried right now by Austin Gomber, their much-maligned return for Arenado, and German Marquez, whose walk rate is now scarily high, but who still combines strikeouts and ground balls.
This is an interesting match-up then, as Freeland desperately needs to limit HRs, and T-Mobile’s generally been pitcher-friendly this year. But as we’ve seen in recent weeks, when the weather warms up, the ball can carry here. Shed Long said he wasn’t sure his walk-off grand slam was gone until it went over the wall, and I’d agree- I thought it would hit the bottom of the wall. Same for JP Crawford’s slam earlier in the series.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, DH
5: Bauers, 1B
6: Murphy, C
7: Fraley, CF
8: Moore, 2B
9: Long, LF
SP: Flexen
JP Crawford’s power surge is both welcome and among the more improbable things I’ve seen this year. As you know, I thought he was being coached into a slap-hitting, put-the-ball-in-play Dee Gordon clone, and I thought that was disastrous. On May 5th, his SLG% dipped to .294, and his ISO had fallen every year he’d been in MLB. Since that day, he’s played 41 games, and slashed .300/.360/.475. His K rate and K:BB are, if anything, “worse,” but you have to put scare quotes on that, because it doesn’t matter at all. His K rate is still low, and his walk rate is fine. It would continue to drop, though, if pitchers thought he couldn’t hurt them, the way he really, actually couldn’t in April. Even modest power is a requirement, and he’s showing more than that. It’s amazing. I’ve mentioned his troubling home/road splits, but those are getting better as he’s driven the ball in T-Mobile recently. The real key has been his domination of left-handed pitching. That was always a trouble spot for the lefty JP, but he’s figured something out. Hey, look, he gets to face a lefty tonight.
Tacoma lost to Vegas 15-6 in the desert, as Logan Verrett scuffled on the mound. Cal Raleigh went 3-4, bringing his season line to .353/.403/.654. Tonight, David Huff takes on struggling prospect and recently-demoted Athletic, Jesus Luzardo. As Mike Curto mentioned on Twitter, “Huff” sounds like an album title from 90s noise-rock titans the Jesus Lizard.
Arkansas resumes their long-simmering civil war with breakaway republic North Arkansas tonight. Alejandro Requena takes on Angel Zerpa, a delightfully-named left-hander making his AA debut. He was 4-0 in High-A Quad Cities.
Everett faces off with the Tri-City Dust Devils, as Juan Then takes the mound for the Frogs opposite Brent Killam. Killam was dominant in the low-A West for Inland Empire, striking out 41 in 24 innings, but he’s been hit hard in two starts at this level. I also just have to note that the pitching probables make an ominous statement: Then-Killam.
Modesto takes on Lake Elsinore.
Game 74, Rays at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Shane McClanahan, 1:10pm
Happy Father’s Day today, and I hope you had a great Juneteenth yesterday. I’ve been loving the weather and hanging out with family, hence the spotty posting schedule over here at USSM headquarters.
The M’s go for a sweep of the erstwhile AL leading Tampa Bay Rays today, and have their opening day starter on the hill for it. I’m trying to think of memorable sweeps in M’s history, and the one I keep coming back to is the M’s sweep of the Detroit Tigers at home in early 1984. That’s a ways back, but it’s something seared into my memory as a young kid, and it’s why I was always such an M’s optimist as a youngster (no, seriously). The Tigers came in at 35-5 in the young season, and a perfect 17-0 on the road. But the M’s had rookie 1B Alvin Davis and pulled it all together (despite the Tigers missing Mark Langston) and swept them in three straight.
Today the M’s face the Rays’ #6 prospect coming into 2021, Shane McClanahan. The oft-injured fireballer averages 97-98 on his four-seamer, which gets above-average spin efficiency. So it’s a rise-ball, like Trevor Bauer’s or Tyler Glasnow’s? No, not really. While it’s efficient, it’s not spinning all that much. It’s a touch less spin than average, but when you consider his blazing velocity, it’s remarkably low in Bauer unit terms. His movement is even more surprising when you consider his high-ish release point; by movement and (nearly) speed, it looks a bit like Yusei Kikuchi’s four-seamer, *especially* the lower-spin version he threw in this series. But while Kikuchi got the same vertical rise with a below-6′ release point, McClanahan’s up nearer to 6.5′.
Perhaps that’s why batters have been pretty comfortable against McClanahan’s heater. In his short career, they’re slugging nearly .600 off it it. And to compensate for *that*, McClanahan’s approach is to de-emphasize the heat. He’s at his best when he can get to his 90 mph slider, easily his best pitch. Again, it’s a low-spin version of the pitch, and in his case, that means it gets less side-to-side movement, but more sink. Whereas his fastball’s about 98% efficient (in terms of the spin turning into pitch movement), the slider’s at only 25%: this is a gyro-spin slider. That’s not necessarily bad, and I keep thinking that as Kikuchi’s slider gets less spin, it may have a similar movement profile – one that isn’t too bad. I like pitches that dart downwards, and it’s at least possible that a gyrospin slider without as much sweep might fare better against opposite-handed hitters.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Moore, 2B
6: Bauers, RF
7: Torrens, C
8: Fraley, CF
9: Long, LF
SP: Gonzales
Tacoma’s unbeatable at the moment, as they take a 7 game winning streak into Las Vegas today. In recent news, Cal Raleigh’s hitting streak was snapped at 23 the other day, but doubled yesterday. The R’s listened to the sage advice presented here and brought up SP Ian McKinney, but AAA-West is a rough environment, and he was knocked around in Vegas – in a game the R’s came back to win. I’m glad he’s up and look forward to seeing him in a less crazy environment. AJ Puk, A’s uber-prospect, got the loss yesterday, pushing his ERA over 11. THAT’S the kind of environment that makes it really hard to evaluate anyone in that league right now. Looks like Keynan Middleton – who’s been great for Tacoma – will get the start for today’s bullpen day.
Arkansas lost to Tulsa 7-5. Devin Sweet had a quality start for the Travs, going 6 2/3 with 2R allowed (1 ER), with 9 Ks and 1 walk. Bobby Honeyman and Connor Kopach homered. Tyler Herb, who’s been an unreal pick-up off the scrap heap, gets the start today. His season line is 2-3 with a 2.03 ERA thanks to a 23:3 K:BB ratio.
Everett beat up on Vancouver, 12-4 in Hillsboro, OR. New AquaSock OF Cade Marlowe got his first two hits in High-A, including a triple. Emerson Hancock went 5 IP for the win, giving up 3 R and striking out 8. George Kirby gets the start today.
San Jose destroyed Modesto, 13-4. SP Sam Carlson had a so-so start, going 6 IP, giving up 7 H, 5 R (3 ER), and striking out 7 to zero walks. It didn’t help that the Nuts made 4 errors.
Game 73, Rays at Mariners
Logan Gilbert vs. Josh Fleming, 7:10pm
After winning the first two games of the series against the high-flying Rays, the M’s look to officially take the four-game set with a win tonight. Logan Gilbert, who’s looked calm, poised, and effective in recent games, takes the hill for the M’s.
Against him is Tampa’s swingman/spot starter Josh Fleming, a comparatively unheralded lefty who made his debut last season. Tampa’s got young SP prospects with tons of velocity (Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan) and SP prospects with tantalizing raw stuff (Brent Honeywell, Brendan McKay), but few have been as effective in their first taste of MLB as Fleming. The 2017 5th rounder rated as Tampa’s #30 prospect entering the year, then threw 32 1/3 innings of under-3 ERA baseball for the pennant winners.
He uses a sinker at around 91, a cutter, a curve, and a really nice sinking change. Pretty much everything he throws drops, and that allows him to post GB rates near 60%.
The story of last night’s game was Yusei Kikuchi’s great performance, the latest in a string of gems. Beyond that, though, he got some attention for his spin rates. Like many pitchers, especially those who’ve gained velo, his spin rates have been up in the early going. Last night, they cratered, with his FB down 150-200RPM on average. Did it matter? Ask the Rays.
Kikuchi had his lowest release point, and thus got some good arm side run (well, for him). But despite the drop in spin and arm angle, his vertical movement was…well, not unchanged, but down fractionally. Same with his slider and cutter.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, RF
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Murphy, C
6: Bauers, DH
7: Moore, 2B
8: Fraley, CF
9: Long, LF
SP: Gilbert
Game 70, Twins at Mariners
Justus Sheffield vs. Bailey Ober, 7:10pm
After a great comeback win and last night’s dominant laugher, the M’s go for a sweep today against the reeling Twins who are sending a rookie with what looks like a dog’s name to the mound. Who is Bailey Ober?
This’ll be his fourth MLB start, and he’s got a remarkable K:BB ratio and an equally remarkable ground ball rate. It’s nearly impossible to hit it on the ground against this guy. Not sure why anyone would really *want* to, given that HRs have been the only thing that’s troubled him in his initial three starts. But still: a GB% near 20% will get my attention, even in a short sample.
I looked at Fangraphs’ scouting report when they named him the Twins 22nd best prospect coming into 2021, and it sees him as a middle reliever whose odd delivery might work in short stints as kind of a trick-pitch guy; it mentions Josh Collmenter, an old D’Backs starter/reliever who had that trick-pitch label. Collmenter’s extreme over-the-top delivery created a fastball with almost pure backspin, allowing Collmenter to get way more than you’d think out of below-average raw stuff. And given that arm angle, he posted absurd GB%, which allowed him to run low BABIPs and fashion a decent career despite not-quite-MLB velo and stuff.
So, imagine my surprise when I took a look at Ober’s release/velo. Ober had a ton more strikeouts than Collmenter ever did, but the biggest difference is that he’s not over the top *at all*. The dude’s all of 6’9″, but his release point is less than 6′ off the ground. This isn’t an over-the-top guy in any sense. So, is this a weird Josh Hader thing where he gets way more vertical rise than you’d expect, given his release point? Er, no, not that either. His fastball has *less* rise than average. (As an aside, it’s also way, way firmer than his scouting report indicated. This isn’t an 87-89 guy anymore; he’s fully 92-94.) The real reason for his freakish batted-ball profile is this. The guy just throws his four-seam up, and that’s essentially it. He doesn’t mix in lower fastballs to change eye-levels, he doesn’t throw to all quadrants. He just pings *sinking* four-seamers to the top or above the zone and dares you to do something about it.
Ober’s four-seam FB locations
This is another case where the old baseball nostrum about a really tall guy throwing downhill doesn’t quite work. You’ve got a 6’9″ guy throwing a sinking pitch, and batters *still* can’t hit on the ground if they tried. It’s a testament to the power of vertical location in determining the nature of contact. Of course, Ober’s hoping for no contact at all, but that’s neither here nor there. Finally, I’d say that Sheffield’s super-sinky four-seam is what caused the M’s to switch him over to a sinker, and you can see why they did that. I’m not suggesting that the Ober pathway was a *better* alternative, but it’s kind of fascinating to see someone with the same essential issue zig where the M’s zagged.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Fraley, LF
3: Haniger, DH
4: Seager, 3B
5: France, 1B
6: Bauers, RF
7: Long, 2B
8: Trammell, CF
9: Godoy, C
SP: Sheffield
Good to see Haniger back after his scary knee contusion. And I’m sure Shed Long, Jr. is happy to be back at his natural position after being exiled to LF the past few games.
Tacoma came from 5 back in the late innings and beat Sacramento 10-9 in 10 innings. Cal Raleigh’s hitting streak just continues; it’s up to 21 games now.
Arkansas beat Tulsa 3-2. Jake Scheiner hit his 9th HR of the year. Adam Hill’s on the mound for the Travs.
Everett demolished Vancouver 16-9 in Hillsboro. Juliooooo went 2-5 with a walk, and Brandon Williamson was great for 5 1/3 IP, striking out 8 and giving up just one run for the win. Igor Januario, a personal favorite, had a game to forget, so we won’t dwell on that. Juan Then gets the start tonight.
San Jose beat Modesto 6-5 thanks in part to a HR from Giants uber-prospect Marco Luciano. The teenager is now slugging .545. Cade Marlowe went 2-4 with a walk, and is slugging .523 himself.
Game 69, Twins at Mariners: The Sticky Substance Shell Game
Chris Flexen vs. JA Happ, 7:10pm
The M’s won a game that had no business winning last night, as the Twins bullpen again managed to sink even lower. The Twins ‘pen is the mirror image of the M’s offense, and last night’s game was a cool microcosm of their respective seasons. The M’s offense is bad, and at home, they’re even worse. However, they’re at their best (which is a low bar, but go with me here) in close and late situations. Thus, their clutch score has been excellent this season, as a decent chunk of the comparatively few runs they scrape across are scored when the M’s really need them. Meanwhile, the Twins pitchers, and especially their bullpen, are equally hapless over all, but they too feel the gravity of close-and-late situations, and those big moments transform them. Into the worst possible versions of themselves. They’re bad, and then they get worse in the clutch. This is how a team with designs on the AL Pennant find themselves in last place and looking forward to selling at the trade deadline.
But no one cares about the M’s and Twins right now. Today, the biggest story by far is the release of MLB’s memo on pitchers using sticky substances to increase grip and generate higher spin rates. Umpires can check a pitcher for sticky substances, and because no one’s going to ask them to run tests on anything they find, *any* substance is enough for the pitcher to be ejected and face a 10-day suspension (with pay). Catchers, too, can be inspected. Managers can ask for reviews, though umpires can reject these requests and even eject a manager if they feel a request is made in “bad faith” somehow.
Pitchers, are, as a group, pretty upset about all of this. Tyler Glasow, who exited yesterday’s game with elbow soreness and is now diagnosed with a partially-torn UCL blames his injury on the crackdown: “”I just threw 80 something innings & you just told me I can’t use anything. I have to change everything.
I truly believe 100% that’s why I got hurt. I’m frustrated MLB doesn’t understand. You can’t just tell us to use nothing. It’s crazy.” Trevor Bauer agrees that a big part of the problem is the mid-season implementation of the…uh, enforcement priority (using foreign substances has *always* been illegal, but everyone in the game seemed fine with allowing pitchers to use a combination of either pine tar or rosin mixed with sunscreen). Are they right?
It depends on the magnitude of the performance enhancement one gets from pine tar or, especially, spider tack. The league has said that they will present some of this information, but it’s not clear what form that will take: are they solely going to focus on how hit-by-pitch stats change/don’t change? Or, as everyone keeps saying, is this more about generating more balls in play and/or increasing BABIP, still stuck at a multi-decade low. We’ve already seen the SI cover story calling this the “new steroids” and quoting a baseball executive saying that, “This should be the biggest scandal in sports.”
Is this another case of baseball’s ownership ham-handedly trashing players, as with steroids, and as with the contentious negotiations around last year’s Covid-shortened season and the upcoming CBA? Or did this push come from players who are upset about routine flouting of baseball’s stated/unambiguous rules? Here’s where it might be nice to go to the data to see what kind of impact this is really having. I mean, we can DO that, but you quickly run into the problem of confounding variables. So, yes, spin rates are up a bit over last year’s rates, which were up over 2019’s. But velocity is up as well, and spin rates move in tandem with velocity. Accounting for velo, the league’s average “Bauer Unit” is up fractionally.
But what about super spinny-fastballs, the pitches that have been at the center of this drama? Definitional issues abound, given the league-wide rate increase, but if we focus on four-seamers thrown with more than 2400 RPMs, we see that the batting average and overall production (wOBA) are down in 2021. However, such pitches are more likely to be barreled by batters this season. The results on those barrels aren’t as batter-friendly as they were in 2019, but barrels are more likely.
On pitches around league-average spin, wOBA is down as well (though up compared with the weird 2020 season). If we focus in on balls in play, and specifically fly balls, higher-spin fastball production is down more than average-spin production, but it’s impossible to say if it’s the spin doing the work here or if it’s velocity. Moreover, it’s probably a bit too early for any of this to really be dispositive.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris (one of the people responsible for bringing this issue into the broader public fan’s awareness) has a great article ($) that shows that, while strikeouts are down in June (as the league’s long-rumored crackdown drew near), strikeouts *always* decline in June. I think Lucas Apostoleris at BP has shown that *something’s* going on, as a few pitchers really do seem to be seeing spin rate changes. And as Eno points out, there seems to be something to the relationship between K% and the Bauer units on four-seam fastballs. But even here, there’s room for debate. Throwing high-spin four-seamers up clearly gets more whiffs, but it leads to more fly balls and, as we’re seeing now, potentially more barreled contact. And for breaking pitches, it’s not even clear that you WANT all of this spin. MLB’s Tangotiger did an interesting look at results by spin rate using changes from the same pitcher in the same game (an individual pitcher’s rate varies by well over 100 RPM in each game, and some, like say Yusei Kikuchi, seem to exhibit even more variance). What he found was that high-spin fastballs were good for pitchers, but the lowest-spinning sliders were the best, in part because they didn’t swerve outside of the zone and end up as waste pitches or 57-foot breaking balls.
But spin is up, pitchers are using spider tack to generate more spin, and offense is down. QED, right? Well, no. We can’t talk about production without going back to the baseball itself. Today’s is not the first game-changing memo of 2021 from the league office. The first was admitting to intentionally altering the baseball to reduce its COI or bounciness, thereby reducing fly ball distance. They’ve done that. Balls hit at exactly the same angle and velocity just do not go as far this year. At least to me, this change has been poorly implemented; the league didn’t seem to anticipate just what could happen if you reduce fly ball distance, and what percentage of balls that used to be dingers would become doubles, and what percentage would be fly-outs. And as I’ve been hammering on all year, they *really* didn’t seem to guess how this would interact with the humidor-stored balls in 10 parks, nor about how this could play out in different venues. That is, this change may have had the intended effect in Colorado, with it’s gigantic outfield. But in Seattle, it has absolutely annihilated offense, and it seems clear that what’s going on in Seattle isn’t largely the result of sticky stuff.
When you see it that way, it’s hard to look at that quote from the SI story the same way. The league *could* take some of the blame for their failed attempt to generate a different kind of offense this year. Hey, it didn’t work, this stuff is complicated, unknown-unknowns, and all of that. But what if they could target something else, something that may have been going on for years and years, and say, “Forget about the ball, that over there is the biggest scandal in sports.” Changes in positioning are reducing BABIP, and the new baseball further erodes the value of hitting a fly ball. They can work in tandem, as the new ball’s higher exit velocities AND increased drag benefit infielders playing deeper, as they have more time to react to grounders. Meanwhile, some of baseball’s most effective, most whiff-producing pitches are things like Kendall Graveman’s sinker (with low spin, and with lower average spin this year than in prior years) or Pablo Lopez’s change-up. Lopez’s cambio comes in with less than 2,000 RPMs, but generates freakish armside run. John Means’ change, easily one of the best pitches in the game, used to have very high spin for a change, but Means has cut over 130 RPMs on it since 2020. But sure, the sticky stuff has completely changed the game. When in doubt, when in trouble, the league lashes out at players (a point Joe Sheehan has been making repeatedly).
Why would pitchers do it if it wasn’t all that effective? Well, I think for some of them, it is. If you have the kind of fastball that might benefit from increased rise, or if you throw over the top and want more spin on both a fastball and a curve, sure. They may be reacting to the perception that teams value high spin, and thus they could be seen as more promising or a safer bet for a contract extension. I think there’s something to that. But ultimately, these are the people who thought those Phiten necklaces or just wearing copper gave them a huge performance edge. There is real performance enhancement here, but there’s more than a little psychosomatic stuff, too.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Fraley, CF
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Moore, 2B
6: Murphy, C
7: Bauers, RF
8: Torrens, DH
9: Long, LF
SP: Flexen
Yep, another catcher’s up from Tacoma, and it’s…not Cal Raleigh. It’s Luis Torrens. He’ll…DH? Whatever.
Tacoma’s wrapping up their series with Sacramento today.
Arkansas starts a series with Tulsa, Everett goes to Hillsboro to face Vancouver, and Modesto travels to San Jose.
Game 68, Twins at Mariners
Marco Gonzales vs. Kenta Maeda, 7:10pm
The M’s return home after something of a rough road trip. The team isn’t really supposed to contend, so there’s no big loss of momentum or playoff-odds-dashing collapse. But as I’ve said quite a bit, the M’s are more fun to watch than their stats or place in the standings would lead you to believe: they’re getting more out of their not-good-enough roster, and they’ve had some fun victories over the course of 2021. But when they stop doing that, or when they mix in feel-good wins like yesterday’s with soul-suckers like the day before, it takes away some of the good will they’ve banked. Still, I don’t think anyone can be shocked that a bad team will occasionally play like one. A bad team having a bad week is something all of us have decided isn’t any kind of deal-breaker; none of us would be here it were were.
The Twins, though…ouch. This was a playoff team a year ago, and a really, really good one. They had a great mix of exciting young talent and the ageless wonder that is Nelson Cruz. They had good-enough pitching that was bolstered with free agents like Today’s starter, Kenta Maeda. They had Byron Buxton coming into his own, and a system preparing another wave with guys like Trevor Larnach waiting in the high minors. They’ve been up and down in recent years, one of the few teams that’s been almost unsettlingly volatile, but in 2021, they kind of felt too big to fail. They’ve really, really failed.
The Twins are tied with the Tigers for the worst record in the AL Central, and despite what they’ve done against the M’s, the Tigers really are bad. The Twins offense wasn’t able to recreate the magic of 2019 Bomba Squad, but they’re actually faring slightly better than last year, when the team won the Central with a .600 winning percentage. The problem has been an utter collapse of what was one of the league’s best pitching staffs in 2020. By Fangraphs’ FIP-based WAR, they were the second-most valuable group in 2020, and are now *dead last*.
It’s odd, because this isn’t a case where they lost their starting rotation, or went aftger a bunch of free agents who’ve all busted. Last year’s rotation included Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Kenta Maeda, and Randy Dobnak. All those guys are still around. They lost Rich Hill to free agency, but replaced him with veteran JA Happ. It’s not injuries, either. What’s happened is that Maeda’s collapsed, Dobnak’s regressed mightily, and the newcomers have poured gasoline all over the fire instead of putting it out. It just feels like a case where a few guys started the season off for whatever reason, and the Twins haven’t been able to figure out how to help.
Maeda’s season is perhaps the hardest to understand. While he was never an out-and-out star in Los Angeles, his tenure with the Dodgers was marked by remarkable consistency. In four years, his FIP bounced between 3.03 and 3.28. Now, his actual runs allowed came in higher, and had a bit more volatility – that’s kind of the deal with RA/9. But even there, the range of outcomes was pretty darn narrow, especially when you consider how many things were changing with the run environment over that period. How would he fare outside of LA’s elite coaching?
In 2020, Maeda pulled it all together and had the best year of his (US) career. It was such a short season, so perhaps it’s best to call it a hot streak, but he set career marks in both K% and BB%, in strand rate, in batting average-allowed. Everything worked. With the Dodgers, Maeda pitched off of a four-seam fastball, but threw a lot of sliders, curves, and some split-fingered changes. His fastball is only 91-92, and isn’t blessed with crazy spin or rise, so it was an effective pitch by setting up the bendy stuff. What Minnesota suggested to him was, why not just throw the bendy stuff, and use the fastball as a change-of-pace? In 2018, he threw four-seamers over 40% of the time, and it was down to about 35% his last year in LA. Last season, it was under *20%*. He’ll mix in the occasional sinker, but the point here is that he’s slider-dominant now, and fastballs of all types are rarer in his pitch mix than breaking balls OR his splitter. All of that worked splendidly last year, but that same approach is getting punished this year.
Seriously, there’s nothing too different about his velo, pitch mix, etc. The same slider-heavy approach that pushed his K rate over 32% is now threatening to fall under 20% in 2021. His strand rate is at the lowest level of his career, and his HR rate would be a career high…not the kind of career high you want. It’s all pretty weird, and as bad as it is for Maeda, it’s really sunk the Twins. The Twins are neck-and-neck with Baltimore for the highest HR/9 in the league, and Maeda’s a big part of that.
The explanation may be as simple as injury. Maeda’s been out with an arm injury for the past several days, and was just activated from the IL to make this start. I’m sure the Twins will be watching him closely. If the M’s can get it to the Twins bullpen, they should fare pretty well, as the ‘pen has been shaky this season – something the M’s saw and took advantage of when they faced off in Minnesota in April.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Fraley, DH
3: France, 1B
4: Seager, 3B
5: Moore, 2B
6: Bauers, RF
7: Murphy, C
8: Long, LF
9: Trammell, CF
SP: Gonzales
Mitch Haniger’s out of the lineup with the knee contusion that caused him to come out of yesterday’s game. The team’s still hoping he won’t need an IL trip – just a few days of icing it. We shall see.
As it’s Monday, there’s only one game on the minor league docket, as Tacoma hosts Sacramento at Cheney Stadium. The teams were rained out yesterday. Tacoma’s 17-15, and sit second in the West division of the AAA-West. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the division, but have also allowed the fewest – this is thanks in large part to their spacious stadium and the fact that so many of the other teams play in altitude-and-or-desert-addled launching pads.
Arkansas is 16-19, 4th in their division in AA. They’ve got a positive run differential, and have the second-fewest runs allowed of any team in the Texas League, er, I mean, AA-Central.
Everett’s leading the High-A West at 21-13, thanks in large part to the highest scoring offense in the circuit. Their run differential is +95. Wow.
Finally, Modesto is 21-15, good for 3rd in their division of what used to be the California league. They are tied for the second most runs scored in the Low-A-West, and have a +13 run differential.
Game 63, Mariners at Indians
Justin Dunn vs. Aaron Civale, 4:10pm
The first of the day’s transactions is pretty obvious, as Justin Dunn’s coming off of the 10-day IL in order to make tonight’s start. In addition, they’ve activated Kendall Graveman from the Covid-related IL, so they’ve got a key rotation member AND their closer back. That’s necessitated two corresponding moves, and we’re getting an expected one and something of a head-scratcher. First, the M’s have DFA’d reliever Yacksel Rios, whom they picked up about a week ago from the Rays.* The stranger move is that the M’s have optioned Keynan Middleton to Tacoma. Sure, he wasn’t perfect in his last outing, closing out the Tigers in a non-save situation, but he’s been quite effective recently, and seemed to be getting high-leverage innings (especially in the Angels series). But as I’ve said, this seems to be the way the M’s want to run their team this year: churn through as many relievers as you can, even if that means a ridiculous amount of roster moves. Even if it means, as with Rios, bringing guys in, giving them a game or two, and moving on. I have to say, for a team that wants to claim that it’s building towards a championship-contending team in the near term, it’s an odd, and potentially counter-productive strategy.
Aaron Civale will be familiar to many of you as the right-hander who gave up Jarred Kelenic’s first big league hit, a home run to right. I’d said before the game that it may be a bad match-up for Kelenic, and that turned out not to be the case at all. In previous years, he’d showed reverse splits, thanks to an effective mix of breaking balls and a split-change that produces comparatively weak contact. But this year, it’s not exactly working: lefties are slugging *.808* off of Civale’s fastball, and they’re slugging close to .500 overall. On the other hand, he’s been great against right-handers, with his fastball/slider/curve/split mix. Civale doesn’t walk many, but also allows a lot of balls in play.
The other recent move the M’s have made was to pick up 1B/LF Jake Bauers from Cleveland. The one-time Tampa rookie and intriguing reclamation project for Cleveland moved up through both the Rays and Padres system showing patience and a low strikeout rate, paired with good but not great power. In the bigs, he’s shown gap power, though probably not enough for someone at his position, that same good walk rate, but a collapse in both his K rate and his BABIP. The BABIP thing *could* regress towards league average, I suppose, but his expected stats (based on exit velo and the like) don’t show a lot of room for optimism. It’s an interesting move for the M’s, particularly as Evan White begins his rehab assignment in Tacoma (and didn’t feel good enough to play in last night’s game); he was a well-regarded prospect recently. But his production has cratered thanks to something pretty common in baseball these days: bendy pitches. Bauers is slugging .280 off of breaking balls in his career, and an even-more-anemic .188 off of breaking balls. The word is out, I fear. He put a couple of fastballs in play against the Tigers, but late in the game, he saw 4 sliders out of 5 total pitches, with the lone heater a waste pitch out of the zone.
Kyle Lewis just had surgery to repair his torn meniscus, and has no timetable for his return. It could be a few months. We may get to see Jarred Kelenic again before too long, and I’m sure we’ll see more of Dillon Thomas in the meantime.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Haniger, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Fraley, LF
6: Long, 2B
7: Bauers, RF
8: Thomas, CF
9: Godoy, C
SP: Dunn
JP Crawford has been incredibly hot of late, pushing his OPS back over .700. I’ve been down on his new approach, but when he’s hot, he’s great to watch. John Trupin of LL wrote a great piece on his hot streak and low exit velos yesterday that’s definitely worth reading.
* I was going to write up Rios, but he wasn’t around long enough. The M’s picked him up while I was on a camping trip; this is NOT the kind of team you can miss a day’s news and reliably know who you’ll see in that night’s game. I checked MLB Gameday on my trip, saw that “Yacksel Rios” was pitching and thought I was on the wrong game. He threw quite hard, but struggled with the M’s. He’ll get another shot somewhere, as anyone who can touch 99 with some semblance of control will.