Reed Broussard maintain public face, other random stuff
PI: Two displaced players act optimistic. Sexson has goals. Moore continues to chase down former Mariners to fill column inches, this time cornering Alex Rodriguez.
Anyway, moving on… in the Times, trying to make boring drills interesting, and trying to make a story about that interesting.
But in Baker’s Blog, there’s this
Manager Mike Hargrove wants added focus on situational hitting, which is how you wind up with contests like the one featuring $100-a-head batting practice bets.
Which… well, whatever, teams always say stuff like this in spring training. No team ever shows up to camp and announces they were good enough at situational hitting so they’re going to focus on swinging for the fences.
But moreover…
The trend in baseball in recent years has been to get away from the stolen base,
Wow, it’s a broad generalization, let’s trash it! Quick, to the AL stats!
1997: 1491/723 2,214
1998: 1675/754 2,429
1999: 1462/689 2,151 total
2000: 1297/587 1,884 total
2001: 1647/673 2,320 total
2002: 1236/579 1,815 total
2003: 1279/547 1,826 total
2004: 1253/573 1,826 total
2005: 1216/509 1,725 total
2006: 1252/500 1,752 total
Statistical attack proving ineffective! What? How can this be? That’s worked for years! Must… move… on…
…with statistical experts arguing that it is not worth the effort unless the runner in question is successful 75 per cent of the time.
(boggle) How’d that get into the Times? Someone needs to take this whippersnapper aside and have a chat with him.
Also, in high-leverage situations, statistical experts would argue you can go below 75%. But wow. I’m a little frightened of this Baker fellow and his suspicious command of facts.
He’ll probably leave soon for a San Diego paper, though – don’t be scared.
Game 23, White Sox at Mariners
LHP Buehlre v LHP Washburn. 7:05 FSN.
Bloomquist plays center in the non-platoon platoon… and bats SECOND. It’s that situational hitting he brings to the team.
Other lineup news: Johjima moves ahead of Beltre in the batting order to sixth.
Probably going to be a small game thread, what with the server switch and so many people still pointing in the wrong direction, getting errors and whatnot.
Old Time Hockey
Before the final game the Charlestown Chiefs play in “Slap Shot,” Paul Newman’s Reg Dunlop tells his thuggish players that he wants to change. To go out clean. Reg instructs his top goons, the bespectacled Hanson Brothers, to quit fighting and instead play “old time hockey,” like greats Toe Blake, Dit Clapper and Eddie Shore.
But their opponents are a squad of ringers, tough guys who whallop the Chiefs into submission — until Regs takes the shackles off the Hansons, that is.
The Mariners shouldn’t try to go all Hanson Brothers on other teams — no, not even A-Rod and the Yankees — but neither should they uncritically accept traditional strategy if it alters what certain players do best. Yet in two stories today, Jim Street rings the bell for “quality” or “productive” outs. Excerpts:
New batting coach Don Baylor has the task of getting the hitters to buy into the “quality out” theory, advancing runners and driving them in from third base with less than two outs. Seattle’s situational hitting in ’04 was lackluster and was a huge factor in the team finishing last in the league in runs scored.
Another area that must be shored up is situational hitting. The Mariners were last in runs scored, but fifth in hits last season.
I would say something about how frustrated I’m going to be the first time Richie Sexson is instructed to dribble a grounder to the right side with Ichiro on second, but instead I’ll just hope there is no first time that happens.
Derek and others have rebutted the productive out theory in depth, but I’m a simple man. Simple like William of Occam, who said that correct explanations are usually the ones that require the fewest moving parts. Adding elements — “we got a lot of runners to first base, so why didn’t we score? Perhaps we didn’t sacrifice enough, or make wide enough turns …” — just obfuscates.
How’s this for simple: that run-scoring problem happened because the 2004 team hit a lot of singles. If the team had hit more doubles, triples, and home runs, runners would have had a better chance of scoring without giving up outs — items which, when given up in quantities equal to 27, end games.
Maybe this whole “last in runs scored, fifth in hits” deal has to do with a lack of productive outs after the hits, like Jim Street says. Or maybe it has to do with the absence of aggressive baserunning, as Mike Hargrove implies later in the article.
If you’re looking for the most likely explanation, though, the fact that the Mariners were last in the AL in team slugging percentage seems compelling to me. That’s why it was a fine idea to bring in talents that specialize in the long hit.
So should Don Baylor stress so-called “productive” outs? No. The all-time leader in getting hit by pitches would have better luck teaching players to lean into offerings, especially if Willie Bloomquist is still on the roster. It might hurt, but it doesn’t advance the out clock any closer to midnight.
Hitters, like folks in any other profession, ought to use the top skills they possess. Asking Sexson, Adrian Beltre or Bucky Jacobsen to refrain from hitting the ball a country mile is like trying to make the Hanson Brothers stop putting on the foil before games.
Mariners to add grit
Also, grime. Dust is a secondary priority, but if possible the team is also looking to increase the amount of gravel and clay on the roster…
“Mariners want to add true grit”
“We have some guys who lay it on the line every game and aren’t affected when things get a little hairy in a tight situation,” general manager Bill Bavasi said, “but we need more of those guys. We are looking for players with good makeup between the lines and finding good, tough guys will be an important part of what we do.”
This is the kind of thing all GMs say all the time, along with standard lines about improving situational hitting, so I’m not particularly concerned.
That said, one of the reasons the 2004 team caught fire and fell over was because they did exactly this, attempting to bring in veterans like Aurilia and Spiezio who’d been parts of championship teams and could add that kind of veteran leadership and clubhouse presence.
It didn’t work out then, and if you look at the free agents who are reputed to be that same kind of player, you can see that it wouldn’t work this year either.
From MLB.com:
Melvin said baserunning and situational hitting are two of the areas that the team needs to improve this season. And he will use the five-week training camp to get the message across.
“With a lineup that puts the ball in play, we have the option of starting the runners more than we did last year,” he said. “We may not be as fast (as a year ago), but all of our hitters, one-through-nine, make contact.
“I don’t want to mention any names, but we had some swing-and-miss guys.”
What a stupid thing to say. I mean beyond the every-year refrain of situational hitting… Heaven forbid Melvin should pass up a chance to take another dig at Mike Cameron and his productive career in center field.
Game 120, Mariners at Athletics: The Showdown
Marco Gonzales vs. Sean Manaea, 7:05pm
The M’s unlikely sweep of the Astros in Houston has remade the AL West. The M’s are just 4 out of first, and 1.5 back of the A’s in 2nd place. The season seemed to be settling in to the M’s in 2nd behind the Astros who looked like they’d run away with things the way everyone expected. Injuries and trouble in the clutch have confounded those expectations, at least temporarily. The biggest beneficiaries of the Astros’ stumbles, though, have been the A’s, who continue to steamroll their way through their 2nd half schedule. The A’s are a very good team, but they share a common attribute with the M’s, one that’s essentially the inverse of the Astros’ current foible: they are dominant when they get a lead.
Edwin Diaz just racked up a save in all four wins against Houston, the perfect capstone to the perfect series for the Mariners. On paper, the Astros are better at hitting, pitching, and defense, but Diaz gives the M’s a clear edge in an important phase of the game. While the new crop of situational relievers (and the pre-deadline set-up men) have had their ups and downs, the M’s essentially have things won when they turn the ball to Sugar. That’s essentially the A’s plan, too. In Blake Treinen, the A’s have a similar kind of lock-down closer, one who enables them to overachieve their base talent level, particularly given the rash of injuries they’ve had to deal with.
By Fangraphs’ WAR, Eddie Diaz is the top reliever in the game at 3.1, thanks to an other-wordly FIP borne of his K:BB dominance. By RA9-based WAR, Treinen jumps ahead, and essentially blows MLB out of the water. Treinen doesn’t have the same kind of K rate as Diaz, but he’s given up all of 1 HR and has stranded more runners. To be clear: some of this is due to factors outside of Treinen’s control – his spacious home park, the A’s excellent defense (especially 3B Matt Chapman). Still and all, the A’s closer has an ERA that starts with 0, and while you can justifiably say it won’t last, it’s a huge reason why the A’s keep on surging.
Diaz has his psychedelic slider, a pitch with late, angry break, to confound hitters with. Treinen generally sticks with his fastball, using his 98-MPH four-seam and sinker over 60% of the time. A west coast Zach Britton, Treinen’s sinker often looks like a near-100-MPH breaking ball, with serious late downward break. The sheer life on the pitch make any kind of worries about platoon splits moot. Sure, they’re there…kind of, but he’s got a FIP below 2 against both lefties and righties. Picking who’s got an “advantage” seems like a great way to miss the point.
Of course, we wouldn’t be talking about either Diaz or Treinen if they didn’t have save opportunities, and that’s meant that much of the focus on both clubs has gone towards the starting rotation. The M’s were high on the rotation coming into the year, and health is a big reason why that faith has been at least partially rewarded. Sure, they could’ve used another starter at times, and maybe they’d be neck and neck with the Astros if they’d splurged on someone, but their starting pitching has been remarkably solid all year long. Contrast that with the A’s, who’ve already gone through a few years worth of starting pitchers. When the year started, their rotation looked like this:
1: Kendall Gravemann
2: Sean Manaea
3: Daniel Mengden
4: Andrew Triggs
5: Daniel Gossett
Top prospect AJ Puk waited in the wings for either the super 2 deadline or just a few weeks to give the club an extra year of club control.
Within a few weeks, the rotation was a smoldering pile of ash. Gravemann was demoted and has since had TJ surgery. Daniel Gossett was demoted and had TJ surgery. Andrew Triggs remains on the 60-day DL with forearm tightness but as of this writing, has not yet had TJ surgery, which makes him a kind of success story. Daniel Mengden was merely demoted, so is even more of a success story. AJ Puk had TJ surgery before the year even started. Only Sean Manaea remains, and he’s been reinforced by a motley crew of journeymen, ex-prospects and waiver fodder. Trevor Cahill joined at the end of April, followed by his old teammate Brett Anderson in early May. Paul Blackburn and Frankie Montas joined near the end of May. Chris Bassitt and Edwin Jackson came on in June before the most recent signing, Mike Fiers, joined at the deadline. Blackburn and Bassitt have already departed, the latter optioned to AAA while Blackburn was shut down with, yes, an arm injury. This last iteration of the rotation has been their most successful yet, and currently includes:
1: Sean Manaea
2: Edwin Jackson
3: Trevor Cahill
4: Mike Fiers
5: Brett Anderson
Manaea’s been the rock, but the club wouldn’t be handing the ball to Treinen without Jackson, Cahill, and Anderson turning the clock back to the early years of this decade. Jackson in particular seems like an out-of-nowhere savior, as he hasn’t posted a big league season above replacement level since 2014, and hasn’t posted at least 1 win by RA9-based war since 2012. Everyone gets hot from time to time, but this is every bit as fascinating to me as the Yankees pitching PD success. At least those guys are working with youngsters (CC Sabathia excepted) – the A’s are fueling their comeback with has-beens.
Sean Manaea was once a potential 1st overall draftpick with a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, but arm trouble and inconsistency knocked him down the draft board. With a low 3/4 slot and low spin rate fastball, he seemed like a great Justin Masterson-style high-GB% starter, albeit one who might struggle with right-handed bats (Manaea’s a lefty). In his first two years, those platoon split problems plagued him, but he still managed league-average years in the A’s makeshift rotations. This year, he’s taken a step forward despite a somewhat worrying drop in velocity. As LL’s Jake Mailhot detailed back in May, he pitched around his declining velo with swerving horizontal movement and increased confidence. Only, a strange thing has happened to his plus horizontal movement – it’s dropping just as fast as his velocity. When he came up, he had sidearm-quality armside run, averaging over 11″. It’s now down to something like 7″, pushing him from long-tail edge case to…normal pitcher. It hasn’t exactly hurt; he’s having his best season even as his K rate drops. The key’s been that his change and fastball are now confusing *righties*. He doesn’t really throw his slider to righties, so his developmental arc has been predicated on developing his solid split-change into a useful weapon. Armed with a new release point that’s practically on top of 1B, Manaea seems to have upped his deception, and that’s enabled him to be an equal-opportunity pitcher. Trevor Cahill and Edwin Jackson always had more muted platoon splits, but they too seem to be doing something more deceptive than in the past. And while Andrew Triggs can’t stay healthy, he was the right-handed version of Manaea – a very low 3/4 sinker/slider guy who looks for all the world like a situational reliever but whose mechanics or stride or something seems to be confusing to opposite-handed batters. I have no idea what the the A’s are doing with these guys, but as of today, the A’s starting pitchers – including a bunch of guys who’ve been demoted and injured or both – have a lower ERA and way, way less hits-allowed than the M’s. Sure, they’ve pitched fewer innings, but even on a rate basis, they’ve given up fewer runs.
The M’s control the zone much better, and the A’s are among the league’s worst at missing bats. But then, they know they don’t have to get outs themselves. Their job is to keep things close, rely on their defense (and yes, their spacious park), and then turn things over to Treinen and company in the bullpen. That *seemed* to be the M’s plan, but Marco Gonzales’ development and Mike Leake’s sheer durability have allowed them to get more innings out of their starters…which is good, as relief arms like James Pazos and Nick Vincent seem to be slowing down a bit. In the past 30 days or so, the A’s starting pitching has morphed into a strength, kind of the way the M’s SPs did in May. How each group fares in September will determine who picks up the second wildcard.
Tonight’s line-up:
1: Haniger, RF
2: Maybin, LF
3: Segura, SS
4: Cruz, DH
5: Seager, 3B
6: Healy, 1B
7: Zunino, C
8: Heredia, CF
9: Romine, 2B
SP: Gonzales
Game 106, Astros at Mariners – Another Bullpen Addition: Welcome, Zach Duke
James Paxton vs. Gerrit Cole, 7:10pm
Before we get to today’s game – a game featuring an absolute can’t-miss pitching match-up – we need to address the day’s biggest news, which is that the M’s have acquired lefty reliever Zach Duke from the Minnesota Twins. The out-of-it Twins have been taking offers on their pitching staff, from starters like Jake Odorizzi to closer Fernando Rodney, but the M’s went after lefty specialist Duke, who’s a free agent at the end of the year and having a solid season. The return is A-ball 1B Ryan Costello, who’s having a solid season in the Midwest League, and AA starter Chase De Jong, who came over from the Dodgers org before 2017 and who pitched at three levels, making the big club for 7 games including 4 starts.
De Jong had been the Texas League pitcher of the year in 2016, so it was odd that he struggled so mightily in AAA. Sure, as a command-and-control guy, he was facing better competition and a much different scoring environment, but he posted an ERA of 6 and a FIP even higher than that. He struggled in the big leagues, too, and eventually got moved down to AA – back to the Texas League. Where he continued to struggle. Things have gone much better in 2018, as he’s repeating the Texas League yet again, but at this point it’s fair to say something isn’t working, and I’m glad the M’s were able to get some value here. De Jong seems like a perfect change-of-scenery candidate, so not a bad flyer for the Twins to take, but I keep thinking his ceiling is pretty limited. The odds of him reaching it here were minimal, so hey, nice move.
Ryan Costello was a 31st-rounder in 2017 out of Coastal Carolina, and the 1B hit very well in the Arizona League after signing. Skipping over the Northwest League, Costello’s more than held his own in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League this year, thanks to a walk rate north of 10% and solid-but-not-remarkable power. As a 22-year old 1B, he’s going to have to keep this up for a while to be a big time prospect, but he’s done far, far more than you’d ever expect from a 31st rounder. I tend to think the game’s missed a bit on bat-first 1B types, as it’s easy to say that the position demands so much production at the plate, but, uh, the position *really does* demand a ton of production at the plate. He’s done that to this point, but his average may be a concern. All in all, another solid lottery ticket for the Twins, and a great job by the M’s that he’d performed well enough to be included in a deal for Duke.
Unlike Sam Tuivailala, Duke really is an effective situational reliever. His sinker’s his primary fastball, and while it’s only 88 MPH, it gets exceptional sink, and it’s a big reason why Duke’s able to produce high ground ball rates. He’s traditionally relied on a curve as his out pitch, but he also mixes in a slider, and he’s got a change-up when asked to face righties. After a down year in 2017, he’s again striking out over 1/4 of the lefties he faces, and more importantly, he’s allowed only 1 HR to a lefty…since 2015, a span of more than 200 PAs against southpaws. Compared to, say, Marc Rzepczynski, Duke’s FB has more sink, and he gets more two-plane break on his slider. He’s got the deeper repertoire overall. Hence, his far superior projections at this point. Yes, comparing him to a DFA’d guy isn’t a high bar to clear, but there are some obvious similarities. It’s just that Duke’s been a bit better overall, and will likely remain so. (It’s *also* because the M’s just signed Rzepczynski on a minor league deal.) This isn’t a game-changing move, but it’s a solid addition in an area of need. M’s relievers have been the best group on the club over the past 30 days, as the hitting’s been non-existent and the starters have been all over the map. But the M’s have to avoid overworking some of their guys, or they’ll get a repeat of the bullpen swoons of 2017 and 2016. Adding Duke should help with that.
They’ll need it, because they’re facing a tough stretch of games here. The next two nights, the M’s will face Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton, #9 and #20 in fWAR, and #2 and #8 in K% among qualified pitchers. For an offense that’s reeling a bit, that’s a tough assignment. The good news, if there is any, is that the M’s don’t seem as likely to strike out as many of the other line-ups Cole/Morton face. Cole was absolutely red hot when the M’s saw him in April, but he K’d only 5 on that day…not that the M’s could do anything with the balls they put in play. But still: Cole’s got an absolutely terrible career K rate against this line-up, and that includes Dee Gordon and Jean Segura, who’ve faced him a combined 46 times, and struck out once each. He’s only struck out three players more than once in his career, and he’s not going to see any of them tonight: James Paxton, Mike Leake, and Andrew Romine. Yes, most of these at-bats came back when he was a sinkerballing pitch-to-contact guy, but again, the 5 Ks he had against the M’s in April are tied for his single game low this year. Am I kind of reaching here? Yeah, maybe, but if you put it in play, you’ve got a chance. Still, this match-up puts a lot of pressure on Paxton to be perfect or near perfect. That’s a lot to ask for a guy coming off the DL, though we’ll see if the rest helps his velocity and stuff, or if he’s rusty and missing his spots.
Lots of talk today on the radio and on twitter about the M’s upcoming decision regarding Felix Hernandez. Do they move him to the pen? DL him with a phantom injury and tell him to work on something? Move him? I’ve been one of Felix’s biggest fans since this blog dubbed him King Felix about 15 years ago, but I understand the M’s dilemma here. What I don’t understand is why the org can’t help him make the kinds of changes that have rejuvenated guys who’ve been even worse in recent years: James Shields, Derek Holland, or hell, Charlie Morton. No one’s asking for a version of Felix that throws 98 again. But to watch the org trash Felix or blame him and not *help him improve* has been frustrating. Yes, it takes two sides, and if Felix steadfastly refuses to change anything, believing he’s above such demands, that’d be one thing. But everything we’ve seen suggests that he is: he changed his FB approach when the team asked him to. He revamped his offseason workouts. He’s been willing to listen; the M’s just need to give him something actionable that will help. I don’t know what that thing is, but someone there must have some ideas. His slider and curve often melt into each other, reducing the effectiveness of both. His sinker’s lost all trace of deception against lefties, who are absolutely teeing off on the thing. It’s still somewhat playable against righties, but he’s going to have to change his pitch mix AND work on disguising all of his pitches a bit better. But that’s all doable. Really good teams are doing these kinds of mechanical tweaks on the fly all the time.
I understand that the margin for error is now limited. But the M’s need to understand that putting all of the onus on Felix to improve or…else is not only a bad look, it’s counterproductive. The M’s have made it clear they’re not looking at other starters, and now with a lefty and righty situational reliever, they’re bullpen should be just about complete. If the M’s had a premium SP prospect beating down the door, that’d be one thing. Instead, they’ve got Rob Whalen and a mostly-healthy Erasmo Ramirez who was destroyed in the handful of innings he’s pitched this year. You help Felix be the best version of himself he can be, or you run the risk of losing the wild card. Personally, I’d doubt that trashing him publicly and saying that Jerry/Scott Servais will have to talk through his role going forward is the best way to motivate him, but they’re obviously closer to the situation than I am. I just think that removing him is an admission of failure, a failure that goes far beyond Felix’s on-field performance. Great players fade away all the time – I know it, and I’m not being sentimental here. I’m disappointed that an organization who’s invested *so much* in mental and physical training, who’s bet on their own ability to motivate and coach, either can’t get through to their franchise icon, or doesn’t know what to tell him.
1: Gordon, 2B
2: Segura, SS
3: Span, LF
4: Cruz, DH
5: Haniger, CF
6: Gamel, RF
7: Healy, 1B
8: Zunino, C
9: Romine, 3B
SP: Paxton
Ooookay, so I didn’t *think* Cole would get to face Romine, but I guess he does. Apologies for the bad guess.
Erasmo’s making another rehab start for the Rainiers tonight in New Orleans, as he squares off against the Babycakes’ Jeff Brigham, a Federal Way and University of Washington product. A former 4th-round pick, Brigham’s been great when healthy, but has suffered a barrage of injuries that have limited his innings.
The M’s have made a series of moves with another trade (for RHP Adam Warren) and with Paxton coming off the dL. Vogelbach’s back to AAA. Gordon Beckham’s been DFA’d. The M’s brought up IF Zach Vincej, at least until the trade acquisitions arrive. All of this has put some pressure on the Rainiers roster. Mike Curto just tweeted that they have only 9 position players eligible to play tonight – including three catchers.
Game 43, White Sox at Mariners
Ariel Miranda vs. Jose Quintana, 7:10pm
Yesterday’s game featured two of the least likely starters to throw quality starts, and despite the fact that neither *technically* did, it was a remarkably well-pitched game (until the bullpens got involved). Today’s game features what looks, on paper, like a mismatch: one of the game’s most sought-after, very-much-available starters in Jose Quintana, against Ariel Miranda, who was supposed to be Seattle’s #6 starter and finds himself in the #2 role all of the sudden.
Quintana was nearly traded in the offseason, when teammates Chris Sale and Adam Eaton moved on, but the White Sox held out for a better package, and thought Quintana could build value through the season. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, as Quintana got off to a horrible start, and still sports a walk rate that’s *double* what it was in 2015. He’s striking people out, but walks and HRs have left him with a FIP and ERA well into the 4’s. Quintana was never the kind of guy who’d command a princely haul in trade just because he looks so…normal. There’s no premium velocity, no clear out-pitch. He’s just been remarkably consistent for several years, pitching like a very different kind of #2 starter. He reminds me a bit of Hisashi Iwakuma’s good years, where he’d post a vanishingly low walk rate, a good but not great K rate, and sneak up on people as an extremely effective pitcher. Iwakuma’s age and injury history prevented him from developing really demonstrated consistency, but Quintana’s essentially matched Iwakuma’s line, but over more IP and starts. That’s why it’s so damaging to have a season like this, even when it doesn’t look like anything’s glaringly wrong. If your primary selling point is consistency, a bad patch looks a lot worse.
It’s weird- Quintana isn’t throwing that many more balls, and batters’ average exit velocity is down a bit from last year. His K rate’s still a career high. His BABIP’s higher than it was in 2016, but still lower than his 2015 mark. Even his pitches per plate appearance are down from career averages. He shouldn’t *be* struggling like this, especially with his control. As you can probably guess, a big part of the problem has been that he’s been much worse with men on base. In his career, he’s given up a .319 wOBA with men on base (including 2017). It was under .309 every year from 2013-2016. It’s .353 now, with both HRs and walks increasing. His career FIP w/men on is 3.57; it’s nearly two full runs higher than that in 2017. He’s never had sequencing or situational issues before, so it’s not like this is a long-standing problem. He’s still unlucky if you compare the expected outcome of the balls in play he’s given up versus what actually happened, but there’s some evidence he’s slipping a bit against righties. As a lefty, he’s always had platoon splits, but they’re normal, and he held righties’ performance down such that it wasn’t a problem. Righties are hitting him much better this year, and while that could regress a bit, it indicates that good right-handed hitting teams might give him some problems. Cruz/Segura/Valencia/Motter (man, I want Mitch Haniger back) might give him some problems.
1: Segura, SS
2: Heredia, LF
3: Cruz, DH
4: Seager, 3B
5: Valencia, 1B
6: Motter, 2B
7: Gamel, RF
8: Gosewisch, C
9: Dyson, CF
SP: Miranda
Tacoma split a double-header with Omaha despite having a patched-together pitching staff. They won game 1 1-0 on a Josh Staumont wild pitch. That gave Emilio Pagan the win in relief of Tyler Cloyd, who went 4. Game 2 featured MiLB Rule 5 pick-up Paul Paez starting, giving up 2 runs in 4 IP, and 2 IP of relief from Steven Ridings, who was recently called up to Arkansas from extended, and who’d pitched less than 9 IP in total in his pro career. Fun times! Rob Whalen starts tonight in Iowa against the I-Cubs.
Arkansas finally beat the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, as Tyler Herb tossed his best game of the year, limiting NWA to 1 run on 7 hits in 7 IP (with 7 Ks and 0 BBs). Kyle Waldrop homered for the Travs in a 7-3 win. Brett Ash starts tonight for Arkansas in Tulsa.
Nick Neidert pitched around a 2-HR, 4-R first inning to lead Modesto to a 12-7 win against Lancaster. Neidert managed 5 IP, and benefited from *9* extra-base hits by the Nuts offense. He also helped himself by getting two pick-offs. Chris Mariscal had 3 hits, including a 2B and a HR. Top Rockies prospect Brendan Rogers doubled, but it was CF Wes Rogers, who (like many on Lancaster) played for Modesto last year, who HR’d off of Neidert. Today, it’s Anthony Misiewicz on the hill, taking on Matt Krook and the San Jose Giants. Krook’s yielded quite a few krooked innings this year; he’s somehow given up 27 runs in 17 2/3 innings.
Clinton lost to Burlington 8-5, as the Angels top prospect, OF Jahmai Jones, had 3 extra-base hits out of the leadoff spot to pace the Bees. Luis Liberato homered for the Lumberkings. SP Danny Garcia got bombed, yielding 11 hits and 8 runs in 3 1/3 IP. Brandon Miller toes the rubber for Clinton tonight.
Miscellany: The AL West, Edwin Diaz, Minor Leagues
This post was supposed to be out yesterday for the off-day, but I… I didn’t finish it. Darn. Let’s talk about various things, but only briefly. Let’s not linger, for baseball is always approaching. It is relentless, and it is wonderful.
1: You know what else is wonderful? This picture:
This is Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds in the AL West from the beginning of the year until May 11th, when Jeff Sullivan used it in this post at Fangraphs. Jeff mentions that this isn’t just Fangraphs’ odds overreacting to the Astros slow start, but because visuals are nice, here’s BP’s Playoff Odds through yesterday:
In both, the M’s started out with the second-highest odds behind Houston, and in both, the M’s passed the Astros as the most likely playoff team some time in April. At the other end of the division, the A’s and Angels have quickly fallen off the pace, and especially in BP’s version, they’ve got essentially no shot now. This is pretty remarkable, given that the teams seemed bunched around .500. That said, this kind of wholesale re-shuffling of the playoff odds is only possible *because* the teams started off so close together. With the teams’ true talent near .500, the first month or so of actual games – and the M’s actual, sizable lead over Houston – is crucial. Houston was the favorite not because the systems thought they were great, but that they had a consistent yet small advantage. Even if that were true, it’s not going to be enough at this point. The M’s hot start means something.
The interesting thing, at least to me, is Texas. They’re the only team sticking around with the M’s, but Fangraphs thought they’d be awful, or whatever passes for awful in the parity-stricken AL. Thus, even now, they haven’t passed the Astros in playoff odds. In BP’s version, they started out ahead of the A’s and Angels, and thus their hot start combined with a not-abysmal estimate of true talent means their playoff odds are second-highest in the division.
That Texas is in second right now doesn’t really shock me – I thought they’d be a tough team, and thought they were being overlooked before the season. What HAS surprised me is the degree to which the division’s separated itself so distinctly so early. Some of this is due to injury: the Angels suffered some bad luck in the spring, and it’s only accelerated since the season began. They’ve now lost their ace, Garrett Richards, for the season, and must turn to Brendan Ryan at SS due to Andrelton Simmons’ injuries. Oakland, though, is harder to understand. I don’t think anyone thought their rotation was going to carry them, but the A’s are giving up 5.17 runs per game, well above even the Angels’ 4.47, and the Astros’ 4.72. Some of this is bad luck; Sonny Gray won’t have an ERA of 6 the whole year, and Jesse Hahn’s already replaced some of the stragglers. But Sean Manaea was supposed to help, and he’s allowed 16 runs in 12 2/3 IP. Kendall Graveman wasn’t supposed to be an All-Star, but his FIP’s over 6 at this point. They’re the A’s, and they play in a cavern: their run prevention will improve, and improve markedly. But I think any estimate of their true talent needs to be revised downwards a bit. Sonny Gray isn’t bad, by any stretch, but he may not be a true #1 starter. Graveman seemed like a perfectly fine #4-5, but if he’s closer to replacement level than that, then the A’s are kind of sunk.
Meanwhile, the early returns on some of the M’s big gambles look pretty promising. I don’t know that I’d even put Nate Karns in the “gamble” category, but the fact that the M’s weren’t sure he’d make the rotation 7-8 weeks ago sounds hilarious now. Steve Cishek really WAS a gamble, an ex-closer with declining velocity and someone who’d been traded off by a go-nowhere Marlins club. Dae Ho Lee, too, was no guarantee to make the roster, and has been the kind of bench bat/spot starter the M’s simply haven’t had in years, and his presence allows the M’s some flexibility in dealing with Adam Lind’s struggles. The M’s have been the beneficiaries of some good breaks, but they’ve also shown some aptitude for finding value. They’re in the best position this franchise has been in for many, many years.
2: So perhaps THAT’S why the M’s decided that now was the time to pull the plug on Edwin Diaz as a starting pitcher. As I mentioned the other day, Diaz led all of AA in K-BB%, and if his change-up wasn’t well developed, it clearly wasn’t preventing him from missing bats. Moreover, it’s not like Diaz was struggling against opposite-handed hitters. In his career, Diaz has been better against lefties than righties. Last year, over two levels, Diaz allowed a .730 OPS to righties, but just a .585 mark to lefties. His OBP-against has been better against lefties *every year*. I’m not saying that this proves he’ll always have reverse splits, but it seems to suggest that he’s learned how to use his slider against lefties effectively. The flipside is that he’s not a guy who’s succeeded by dominating righties, which means it’s harder to assume he’d instantly become a great situational reliever.
The numbers we have are limited, of course, and may not prove a whole lot. Brandon Maurer didn’t show much in the way of platoon splits in the minors, and then looked completely defenseless against lefties as a big league starter. If the M’s foresee those kinds of problems, the move makes some sense. Diaz’s delivery is low-3/4, releasing the ball around 5 1/2 feet above the ground, and way off towards third base. That delivery screams platoon splits, as it should give lefties a long look at the ball. That minor league lefties haven’t learned how to exploit it doesn’t necessarily mean that big leaguers won’t. The numbers don’t identify Diaz as a clear reliever candidate, but his body type and arm angle might.
That said, I’ve never really been clear on why such a move helps. Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, Zach Britton – these guys were all starters in the majors, and many other excellent relievers only moved to the pen when they’d failed as starters in the minors (or failed at hitting, in the case of Kenley Janson and Jason Motte). The M’s have a 20-day plan for Diaz that includes pitching on back-to-back days, and that’s the kind of thing that makes some sense to test months before you attempt it in the majors. But it seems like starting is a great way to build stamina, overall arm strength, and learning how read/attack hitters.
In general, I’m against letting the big club’s success drive player development goals and timelines. As pretty much the only high-ceiling pitching prospect in the M’s system, Diaz seemed too valuable for a role change in early May, particularly given how well he was pitching. I don’t think the M’s did Brandon Morrow any favors years ago by switching his role around, and I keep thinking about that experience when reading about Diaz. But while it’s only been a month and a half, the M’s player development group has earned a benefit of the doubt, at least a grudging one. Diaz has already improved his command, and it’s not insane to think he actually could help the big league club. If you change a prospect’s role because of an injury to a set-up man or two, that’s insane. If you accelerate a timeline because of an aromatic stew of injuries, a radically changed playoff picture and a big-league need, well, that’s still a bit crazy, but so is Steve Cishek: shut-down closer, so I’ma let you finish.
So what would Diaz look like as a reliever? Luckily, we got a preview during last year’s all-star break, when Diaz pitched out of the pen for the World team in the Futures Game. He gave up a dinger to Josh Bell, so the overall results weren’t great, but it afforded us a look at how his stuff plays in short stints, and how his pitches move. His velocity was excellent, sitting near 95, but touching higher. His slider looked pretty good as well, albeit without a ton of vertical break. Still, it’s his fastball that has me intrigued, and may be what got moved up the M’s timeline for him. BrooksBaseball categorizes it as a sinker, and it’s got impressive armside run (as you might expect from the whippy, low-3/4 angle) and very good sink for a pitch moving so fast.
Which relievers throw 95-97mph sinkers with 4″ of vertical movement? Well, that’s pretty much exactly what Zach Britton’s devastating sinker looks like, as Jeff Sullivan wrote about here. Now, that’s not to say Diaz has *pitched* like Britton or gotten batted ball results that look anything LIKE Britton’s. That in itself is something of a mystery to me, and something I hope this change in role might correct. I say that not because I think Diaz needs to pitch at the knees exclusively, but that his raw stuff could really play up if he tried to attack hitters the way Britton does. Obviously, it took Britton himself a long time to figure this out, and many years of getting annihilated as a starter, so I don’t think this is something that a 20-day plan can instill. But a change in approach is much easier to implement than an overhaul of mechanics or stuff.
Mechanically, Diaz and Britton are nothing alike. Britton’s much more over the top, which makes the horizontal run on his sinker *more* impressive. But given Diaz’s command, there’s no reason he couldn’t get ground balls when he needed to, and that’s something the M’s bullpen could actually use. The M’s bullpen currently ranks 5th in MLB in FB%. Cishek, Vincent, Nuno, Peralta and to a degree Benoit are all strongly fly-ball oriented, which means your GB guys are simply the ones without much of a big league track record: Mike Montgomery, Tony Zych and Mayckol Guaipe. Slotting Diaz in, particularly if he’s able to target his sinker a bit differently, could add a different dimension to the pen.
Just because Diaz throws a good sinker doesn’t mean he’s destined to become a great, Britton-esque reliever. If you just look at horizontal and vertical movement, there are other names that pop up as similar, including some whose mechanics look more like Diaz. Names like Trevor Gott, which is a name I’d not encountered before. There are no guarantees in life, but especially in pitching. That’s one of the reasons this move makes me nervous. That said, there are reasons to think this could work out.
3: #1 and #2 above are clearly linked. The M’s are doing well, they’re projected to be a contender, and that causes other things to happen, both within the organization and outside of it. How we as fans react to that depends a lot on our experience as M’s fans: where have we seen something like this before? What happened then? These are completely normal questions, almost hard-wired into the human brain, but that’s not to say they always lead to good answers. As M’s fans, we have seen a lot of bad things, and thus any precedent, anything that reminds you of something that came before is highly likely to be an unpleasant memory. How do you enjoy this ride when that keeps happening?
I saw this conversation with author David Rieff today about Rieff’s new book, “In Praise of Forgetting: Historical Memory and Its Ironies,” and thought that it applied rather well to being a fan. Rieff’s thesis is that the old nostrum that those who don’t remember the past are condemned to repeat it is obviously, conclusively false from an actual, empirical basis, and not all that convincing from a theoretical point of view. His solution is, as you can see by the title, to forget.
Baseball often seems like a very applied branch of history; it can seem to outsiders like it’s all tradition and memory, with a dash of Mike Trout and Aroldis Chapman thrown in to give it an athletic veneer. I don’t totally agree with that, but there are so many things about baseball, starting with its exhaustive documentation, that set it up for historical comparisons, for finding precedents, for connecting 2016 with 1986, 1956 and 1916. I think that’s kind of nice, but I’d be lying if I said it didn’t sometimes prevent you from getting swept up in something. Baseball kindly builds drama over a long season to such an extent that something like the 1995 season, or a playoff run like Kansas City’s in 2014 will absolutely overwhelm the “don’t forget about Brandon Morrow!” parts of the brain. They can shut them out entirely. But until you get there, the historical memory is going to keep pointing stuff out.
I think there’s been a lot of talk on twitter, and presumably on the radio, about how to react to this M’s team, and I’ve seen a lot of arguments that any argument from the past necessarily has no bearing on the present season. That just because Bill Bavasi was bad at his job doesn’t mean Jerry Dipoto has to be (my brain is telling me they both came from the Angels, and I’m telling myself to shut up). Or that just because Dustin Ackley flopped doesn’t mean, say, Ketel Marte has to. This is objectively true, of course, but I think what the pessimists are pointing to are patterns of behavior on the part of the org, not specific players. That is, we’ve seen overreactions to short bursts of success, and those things have hindered the club. This doesn’t mean that Jerry Dipoto’s going to trade Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez again. It just means that we’ve been thoroughly conditioned to worry.
That’s not fun, I know. But my long tenure with this team means I am *always* waiting for the other shoe to drop, and I think that any suggestion that shoes can’t keep dropping ignores the powerful, Adidas-laden supercell that’s parked itself over Seattle for the past 10 years. If you keep getting hit in the face every time you look up, you learn to lower your gaze. That’s perfect for an analytical fan like me, as I can dive into other things and not feel crushed by a year like 2015, which felt familiar, almost routine to me, and seemed to drive other M’s fans batty. Today, though, I’m dealing with the opposite problem, and it’s something I’m trying to think through. The first rule of analytics is that you don’t dump 10 years of data because “he really looked different in May,” so I don’t think I’m capable of shutting off the “this feels familiar, and by familiar I mean dangerous” comments from my brain. I’m not sure I’m capable of the “Active forgetting” that David Rieff (and Nietzche) talk about. Maybe it’s just a matter of finding the subtle distinctions and clutching to them like they’re dispositive. Maybe Dae-Ho Lee is the gateway drug, and I just need to hear a few more Korean HR calls. As far as problems go, this is probably one of the best to have, so I’m not really complaining. But complaining, or rather suffering, is so ingrained at this point that everything feels a bit weird. I can’t imagine, but really want to try, what the playoffs would feel like now.
Cactus League Games 11-12: Two in Prime Time
Mike Montgomery vs. Cody Reed, 6:05pm, and James Paxton vs. Brandon Beachy, Alex Wood, Carlos Frias 6:40
Mike Montgomery’s probably not a prospect anymore, but he certainly was at one point – about 5-6 years ago in the Royals org. Kansas City drafted Cody Reed as well, a lefty from a Mississippi junior college who had a velocity spike that carried him from unknown to second round pick. Reed did well in his first pro season, then problems with his delivery torpedoed his 2014 – his K rate dropped and batters started barreling up his still-plenty-fast-fastball. The K rate dropped again in his first taste of AA, but after he was included as a high-risk, high-reward piece in the Royals deadline deal for Johnny Cueto, something seemed to click. In the Reds org, his K% jumped to nearly 30% (it was nearly half that in the Texas league, when he was still with the Royals org). Whatever mechanical change the Reds made, it’s turned Reed from toolsy thrower into one of the better pitching prospects around, and a serious candidate to make the Reds opening day rotation. Of course, the go-nowhere Reds traded away half of their rotation last year, and while they have plenty of young arms in camp, Reed (and Robert Stephenson) have more pure talent than many of the vets ahead of them. Given that the Reds figure to be one of the worst teams in baseball, the Reds may opt to keep Reed down for a month to get an extra year of club control.
Montgomery seems like a AAAA guy, an out-of-options lefty who simply doesn’t profile as a LOOGY or situational reliever because his great change means he’s not a real lefty-killer; he may be better against righties. I love his change, though after a fast start, the league seemed to figure him out. Coming into camp, I gave him long odds to stick with the org through the month: he wasn’t going to be in the rotation, he just doesn’t fit in the bullpen, and they can’t send him to the minors. But new pitching coach Mel Stottlemeyer, jr. seemed to see something intriguing in him, and he just seems like the kind of guy a good pitching coach could really help. His odds are better than I initially thought now, but his slow start due to injury means he’s going to have to show a lot in a short time. If everything goes well, he could stick around as the long man in the bullpen, though the M’s are going to need to figure out what role the loser in the Paxton/Karns battle will take as well. Anyway, immediate transformations due to a mechanical tweak don’t happen often, but Cody Reed shows what can happen when they do. Yes, yes, Reed is much, much more talented and has a good 6mph edge in velo, but to me, there’s no reason a guy with as much run/sink on a change thrown with good arm action should get knocked around consistently in both MLB and AAA. Montgomery is *better* than he’s shown, but he’s running out of chances to prove it.
M’s Versus Reds in Goodyear
1: Martin, CF
2: Sardinas, 2B
3: Smith, RF
4: Romero, 1B
5: Navarro, LF
6: Montero, DH
7: Zunino, C
8: Taylor, SS
9: O’Malley, 3B
SP: Montgomery
Back in Peoria, the M’s face some fraction of the LA Dodgers. In large part, that’s due to the fact that LA too is split-squadding, sending half of their club to face the Cubs, but it’s also due to a rash of injuries that have hit today. The biggest name to head to the trainer is SS and by some accounts the #1 prospect in baseball, Corey Seager, who’s having an MRI on his knee after hurting it running the bases yesterday. Then, today’s starting pitcher, Alex Wood, was scratched with forearm tightness (never a good sign), so the M’s will face hard-throwing sinkerballer Carlos Frias instead. OF Alex Guerrero was penciled into today’s line-up, but he’s been scratched with a knee issue of his own – he’d been held out for a few days along with 2B Howie Kendrick. Rough week in Dodger camp.
Frias throws 94-96, and has a four-seam and sinker with similar velo. He’s got a change-up, but his outpitch is a hard cutter, thrown around 90mph. It’s a huge whiff pitch and also gets ground ball contact, which is handy, because he’s been remarkably ineffective at getting hitters to whiff on his fastballs. It’s just odd to see a guy who missed some bats in the minors, and then in a brief trial in 2014, post a K/9 under 5 last year in a dozen or so starts. Did I mention he sits in the mid-90s? Of course, with a hard sinker and a cutter that gets GBs, he’s excellent at inducing grounders, but those grounders tended to find holes last year. He pitched around that mediocre BABIP fairly well, but some added strikeouts would help his cause.
M’s Versus Dodgers in Peoria
1: Aoki, LF
2: Marte, SS
3: Cano, 2B
4: Cruz, DH
5: Lind, 1B
6: Seager, 3B
7: Gutierrez, RF
8: Clevenger, C
9: Powell, CF
SP: Paxton
Paxton figures to get 4 IP today, so we’ll be able to check in on how his velocity’s progressing. Always find it interesting one one split-squad gets 90% of the 1st string talent, and that’s what it looks like today with the Peoria contest. Smith/Romero/Navarro is a very different middle-of-the-order from Cano/Cruz/Lind.
The M’s made a minor transaction today, grabbing out-of-options back-up catcher Rob Brantly off of waivers from the White Sox org. To make room on the 40-man, the M’s moved RP Ryan Cook to the 60-day DL; that strained lat is looking more and more like a very serious problem. Brantly’s a rare left-handed hitting catcher, a fact that seems kind of useful until you remember that Steve Clevenger is also a left-handed hitting catcher. As Larry Stone mentioned, this seems like an insurance policy in case Clevenger or Iannetta get hurt before camp closes. As Brantly’s out of options, he could be back on waivers in a month, the cruel fate of playing for 5 clubs in 2 years that often befall those who’ve burned their option years. Brantly isn’t much of a hitter, and hasn’t rated too well in BP’s framing and pitch-blocking metrics, but hey, catching depth is catching depth, and they didn’t give up any talent to get him.