Game 24, Mariners at Dodgers
Justin Dunn vs. Ross Stripling, 6:40pm
The M’s visit the Dodgers today, allowing the two Seager brothers to face off for the first time. Due to injuries and the comparative rarity of these interleague games, the two somehow haven’t yet played a game against each other in the regular season. Nathan Bishop and the Dome and Bedlam blog have been highlighting the degree to which Kyle’s been underrated by Mariner fans, and I’m coming around to this view. At first, I thought it seemed odd; Kyle’s beloved by just about all M’s fans I’ve ever encountered. But when you think about his stature in M’s lore compared to, say, Jay Buhner – a lesser ballplayer who became a legitimate nationally-known figure in the late 90s – I start to understand the point.
I think Kyle’s weird mid-career dip in production hurt his standing a bit; he seemed ready to take off after his brilliant 2016, but then shifting and bulking up seemed sapped his batting average and thus contributed to a drop in overall value. Still, he’s come back from all of that and been one of the leaders of this year’s group, and he finished 2019 looking very strong as well.
The other, perhaps larger, reason Seager’s gone underrated has been the glut of ridiculously good AL West 3Bs during his M’s tenure. This is the Duke Snider problem in action – a deserving player goes relatively unnoticed because others at the same position are having historically great careers/seasons. Seager’s first peak occurred in 2014, but that was during the heyday of Adrian Beltre’s late-career surge with Texas. Beltre out fWAR’d Seager in both 2014 and 2016 on his way to a hall of fame career. Josh Donaldson switched off of catching in 2010-11, and had his first full season in 2013, Seager’s second full year in Seattle. Donaldson put up over 7 WAR, and 13 in two seasons before moving to Toronto and getting somehow even better. Beltre retired and Donaldson’s been injury-prone in recent years, but somehow, it hasn’t mattered. The Astros developed Alex Bregman, who’s been worth over 16 fWAR in his last two seasons in Houston, and the A’s have replaced Donaldson with Platinum-Gloved Matt Chapman, worth “only’ 12.7 WAR the last two years.
The same sort of thing may develop with JP Crawford. Crawford’s plate discipline has been great, and his defense unbelievable, and it may get him to a place where he can post 3-4 WAR seasons year in and year out. That’s incredibly valuable. It might allow him to be the 3rd best SS in the division. Carlos Correa’s been streaky and missed time, but as an MVP candidate when he’s healthy. Marcus Semien somehow became an all-world defender in a 7.6 WAR year last year. And now the Angels’ low-K afterthought, David Fletcher, is working on another 3-WAR season? Fletcher hasn’t really played much SS, and now he can do this?
Crawford’s been a streaky hitter, and he’s shown a variety of approaches. Before his injury last year, Crawford showed good pop, with an ISO of .189 in the first half. This approach came with a few more Ks than he’d like, and in the second half, he improved his plate discipline – taking more walks and striking out less. That approach has carried over into 2020, and it’s very much like Fletcher’s in Anaheim. But it’s *so* powerless (his ISO in 2020 is .061) that it saps his overall value. He’s hitting the ball on the ground much more often than last year, or in his previous stints with the Phillies, and while his average and OBP are up, his ceiling’s probably down. Maybe it’s a trade worth making? It’s just going to be tough to keep up with the other shortstops in what’s suddenly baseball’s deepest position. Hell, Corey Seager is almost an afterthought now with Tatis Jr. going nuclear in San Diego, Bo Bichette coming on in Toronto/Buffalo, and Correa/Trevor Story/Semien/Lindor/etc. all starring for their teams.
Ross Stripling was a 5th round pick by the Dodgers back in 2012, coming up as an unexciting depth guy with solid but not amazing control. Something clicked around 2016, and Stripling’s had nearly immediate success in the big leagues. He’s not overpowering, but he’s never had an ERA or FIP over 4. It’s never been under 3 either, but for a guy the Dodgers were counting on only as a 5th starter, that’s pretty darned good.
Stripling, a righty, throws a four-seam fastball from a high release point at about 91. It’s arrow-straight and has a bit more vertical movement than average, but it’s not some high-spin thing; it’s pretty much dead-on league average in that regard. He has a change, and then two solid breaking balls: a slider and curve. He’s used the slider more in his big league career, but has had much more success with the curve. He’s tried using the slider to lefties, but they’ve done quite well on the pitch, which is nice, as they’ve struggled somewhat with his fastball. Flip that for RHBs: they see his fastball quite well, but struggle with the breaking stuff. Overall, righties have used that FB success to post much better numbers than lefties over the course of Stripling’s 400 IP+ career. The key has been keeping them off-balance with his change, a pitch he rarely throws to righties.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Vogelbach, DH
7: White, 1B
8: Long, 2B
9: Lopes, LF
SP: Dunn
Game 23, Mariners at Astros
Justus Sheffield vs. Lance McCullers, Jr. 11:10am
It’s an early game today as the M’s try to salvage a game in this series against the team that has utterly destroyed them these past two years. Justus Sheffield will try and establish some consistency and repeat last week’s brilliant start with another, while Lance McCullers tries to recapture his past glory.
McCullers’ story was a pretty easy one to describe: electric when healthy, but rarely healthy. He used a sinking four-seam fastball in the mid-90s with a demonic hard curveball from hell to limit base hits and rack up strikeouts. Perhaps a bit like Sheffield, he relied *heavily* on that breaking ball, and when his arm gave out a few times, armchair pitching coaches argued that his pitch mix was behind his health woes. I’m not sure about that, but it’s undeniable that he 1) threw his mid 80s hard curve all the time, even more often than his FB in some years and 2) couldn’t stay on the mound. That mix correlated with injury, but it also correlated with a lot of batters walking back to the bench, shaking their heads.
The righty missed 2019, and the delayed season meant he was ready to go for the 2020 sprint. But he simply hasn’t been himself, with his K rate way down, and his ERA in the early going sitting over 6. He’s all but abandoned his four-seam for a sinker, but that’s not as big of a change as it sounds: his four-seam always had plenty of sink, and with his low 3/4 delivery, it often played a bit like a sinker. In the early going, his sinker’s been…fine. It’s a little slower than he’s been in the past, and not a big swing-and-miss pitch, but his fastball never was.
The problem’s that hellacious curve. It’s simply not fooling anyone, and batters enter today slugging over .700 on it. It’s still his biggest whiff pitch, and it’s something to be respected, but we simply aren’t in a “just hope you get a fastball” or “don’t fall behind, because if you do, it’s over” situation anymore. I wonder if batters have just gotten used to a pitch he’s thrown over 3,000 times in the bigs, or if it’s just that a couple of MPH drop in velocity makes it play a bit more like a regular hard curve or slurvy slider and less like the utterly unique pitch that it used to be. Either way, M’s fans will take it.
They’ll also take Evan White’s positive day in yesterday’s 2-1 loss. He walked on 4 pitches off of Cristian Javier in one of the most befuddling 4 pitch walks you’ll see, especially from a pitcher who ended up having a great day. Then, he started his final at-bat at 3-0 against Brooks Raley beforing launching a nearly 440 foot HR to dead center. Getting ahead in the count is so critical for a hitter who’s been guessing up at the plate, and it allowed him to do some damage on fastballs for a change.
The Times’ Ryan Divish has a fun mailbag column today, and he fields a question from our own commenter stevemotivateir on White’s struggles. Divish argues (before yesterday’s game) that sending White to Tacoma wouldn’t accomplish much, as he wouldn’t face the tough pitchers that have caused him this horrendous start. The coaches seem confident that he can work through this in Seattle. Divish points to his solid exit velocities (something I think is a bit overblown, but has some relevance) and his plate discipline: the fact that he’s laid off balls and swung at strikes. That’s true, and it was on display in yesterday’s game. But I wonder if that’s more of a warning sign than it looks.
If there’s one thing major league hitters do, it’s hit in-zone fastballs. Sure, pretty much everyone has a problem with low/away sliders, particularly with two strikes, but in general, you don’t make it to this level by swinging through strikes, and definitely not fastballs. What stands out about White’s struggles isn’t that he’s missed some breaking balls – any young player will do that. It’s that he’s swung through 38% of all fastballs, and hitting .076 against them. Yesterday’s HR *and* his whiff rate trend against fastballs are great early signs that he may be coming through this. But learning to lay off sliders away – as tough as it is – can be done. It’s been a kiss of death to whiff on in-zone pitches, and White’s got to show more of this. In recent games, he’s been fouling them off, which again is an encouraging sign. But as he nears 100 PAs, he’s got to start making pitchers honest within the strike zone.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: Lopes, LF
7: White, 1B
8: Gordon, 2B
9: Odom, C
SP: Sheffield
Game 22, Mariners vs. Astros
Nick Margevicius vs. Cristian Javier, 4:10pm
Can’t get worse than last night’s game, right? Nick Margevicius was solid in his first start, but his stylistic similarities to Nestor Cortes have me a bit worried.
Cristian Javier is a 23-year old righty with a fastball at 93, a change, and two high-spin breaking balls. The curve looks quite good, but he’s only thrown it a few times, opting instead for his solid slider. The FB looks like a Yankee-style offering, and while it’s been ok, teams that have hit Javier have done damage off of it. The slider’s been hard to hit.
So, Evan White. With three more Ks last night, he has 34 in 77 PAs. He looked frustrated at times, despite notching a much-needed double. I’ve been trying to think of an M’s precedent for this, and there just isn’t one. Mike Zunino was ok/fine at the start of his career. Javier Baez struck out all the time but kept hitting homers. Scott Spiezio wasn’t at the beginning of his career in 2005, and wasn’t given this many PAs with the M’s that year. Same with Miguel Olivo. Stephen Vogt went 0 for his first call up with Tampa, but it was under 30 PAs and he struck out just twice.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, LF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Vogelbach, DH
7: Long, 2B
8: White, 1B
9: Smith, RF
SP: Margevicius
Game 21, Mariners at Astros – Evan White’s Start
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Framber Valdez, 6:10pm
The M’s head back to Houston, where this bizarre season began. The Astros no longer seem like an unstoppable juggernaut, and are a good ways back of the surging Oakland A’s. Their line-up is hitting reasonably well, though quite a bit behind their standards of 2017-2019, but they’re struggling to play defense. The pitching is stuck in a similar predicament. They’re not out and out awful, but after years of being the best or one of the best teams in the game, being mediocre must seem pretty shocking.
Tonight’s starter, Framber Valdez, has been the best of an inconsistent bunch of starters. Justin Verlander got hurt, Josh James blew his chance to snag a rotation slot, and Gerrit Cole’s in pinstripes. The Astros have been very fortunate that Valdez was still kicking around the system as a depth guy. He throws a hard sinker at 93, and it’s very effective at getting grounders. His career GB% is 63%. It was much less effective at staying in the zone. His walk rates in 2018 and 2019 were off-the-charts high, which didn’t exactly kill his effectiveness, but certainly hampered it.
All that’s changed thus far in 2020, as his walk rate has fallen below 5%. He also throws a curve and a change he’s more confident in this campaign, and he’s throwing them all for strikes. The curve’s always gotten whiffs (when people swung at it), but poor fastball command probably limited his opportunity to use it. The M’s are a ground-ball hitting line-up, so this may be a tough match-up.
Evan White’s one of the M’s GB aficionados, with a GB% of 48.6%, significantly higher than the league average of 42.3%. It’s elevated, and it can’t exactly be a surprise, as it’s right in line with his GB% in Everett (48.8%) and Modesto (48.6%). It was lower last season, but he may be falling into old habits. Of course, the GB rate is not the big concern with White – it’s his inability to make contact. With a K rate of 42.5% in 73 PAs, it’s a major concern, and the M’s are undoubtedly working with him a lot. This is the kind of situation where you’d love to have a minor league to send him to – not the “alternative training site” but a league, playing actual games.
I wanted to see how common this was, and what happened to players who strike out so often in their first big-league at-bats. So, I looked for rookie-eligible players with at least 100 PAs in each seven seasons with K% of 30% or more. I found 82 player-seasons (some players, like Byron Buxton, had more than one qualified season), only 6 of which topped the 40% mark. While this would’ve been unthinkable in the ’80s or ’90s, many of these players were successful right from the beginning, despite elevated Ks. Aaron Judge and Kris Bryant are on the list, and both won Rookie of the Year. George Springer, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez have all been pretty productive, too. But obviously, it’s not really a list you want to be on, especially as a 1B. Many are IFs or CFs, and the list is littered with back-up catchers.
No, a really high K rate isn’t a kiss of death that’s impossible to come back from. But you need to be productive despite it. Sure, he’s hit the ball hard when he’s made contact, but he’s often hitting the ball down. He’s had 20 batted balls of at least 95mph, but 8 of these have been at under 5 degrees, meaning ground balls (another, at 7, was also a grounder). Another 4 were hit with such a large angle, that they became easy pop-ups. White’s been unlucky on balls in play, but his batted ball profile has to improve, too.
A number of these high-HR prospects had huge K rates – Joey Gallo being the classic example, but Baez and Judge fit the description, too. The catchers weren’t really supposed to hit, and hang around for other reasons. Many of the player had really high K rates coming up, so this wasn’t a gigantic shock – again, Gallo works for this, as would someone like Carlos Peguero, who debuted earlier than our view here.
I’ve tried to poke around and find some guys who had AA K rates in the same vicinity as White, and then high K rates as rookies. Springer and Santana K’d too much at that level, as did Gallo. Others, like Marrero, Aguilar, and Colabello, came through the minors more as *low* K guys. So, excluding the middle infielders and catchers, I just looked for a group of players who K’d within a couple of percentage points of White’s 23. Let’s see who we find…
…oooooh. Oh no. This is…this is not the list you want to be on at all. To be clear: I’m not saying White will share these guys’ fate. Widening the K rate bars just a teensy bit would include Judge, so just imagine Aaron Judge is listed too, and you’ll feel a lot better.
| AA K rate | AA wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|
| Marc Krauss | 24.4 | 110 |
| Mike Olt | 24 | 168 |
| Jon Singleton | 23.6 | 148 |
| Evan White | 23 | 132 |
| Matt Thaiss | 22.6 | 136 |
| Jabari Blash | 22.3 | 150 |
| Jake Cave | 22.3 | 121 |
| Clint Frazier | 22 | 129 |
| AJ Reed | 20.7 | 168 |
The player White looks the most like may be Thaiss, but of course your eye just goes right to Jon Singleton, with a very similar K rate in the same league (Texas League), and, of course, a very similar path to the majors (the very first extension prior to playing a game in MLB). Damn it. I’d always thought Blash struck out more, but he may have been saved by two very short stints in AA that I’ve rolled together for K% purposes. Many of these guys are still around; Jake Cave was OK for Minnesota a few years ago and still plays for them. Clint Frazier’s just never gotten an opportunity in New York, but he’s with them now. I just don’t know how we ended up with the flame-out first basemen in this – admittedly completely unscientific – list.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Lopes, DH
7: Long, 2B
8: White, 1B
9: Gordon, LF
SP: Kikuchi
Game 20, Mariners at Rangers
Taijuan Walker vs. Jordan Lyles, 6:05pm
The M’s, like pretty much every team, had struggled to turn balls in play into hits this season. Playing in Arlington has certainly helped, as there’ve been all sorts of base hits in this series. That’s been good for both teams, and despite a few HRs, it’s felt like an old-school series, without tons of strikeouts.
I mention this because I happened to check the M’s batting splits, and they’ve been the worst *home* batting team. One big driver of those ugly numbers, and no, I wasn’t going to say “Evan White”, is their BABIP, which is .237, the lowest in MLB. Their isolated power is awful, too, at .106, tied with this Ranger ballclub. Why is T-Mobile park playing like it’s 2011?
The line-up is undoubtedly part of it, of course. But another possibility came up today: T-Mobile park is using a Coors Field-style humidor to store baseballs. Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer tweeted this as part of a discussion about MLB trying to get some consistency in the ball, not only between years (which they’ve completely failed to do) but between parks. Thus, the M’s, Mets, and Red Sox applied to use the humidor, and MLB approved it. The humidors all seem to be set to the settings Colorado used, and which Arizona adopted as well: 70 degrees and 55% relative humidity.
The question that immediately comes to mind is: how does this differ from how the balls were stored before? Colorado and Arizona are two of the driest parks in the game; other than Salt Lake City, I’m not sure there are too many places *less* humid than Phoenix/Denver. But New York, Boston, Seattle, etc. have relative humidity sitting much higher than 55% most of the time. But maybe comparing it to the overall city isn’t the point – what matters is how different it is from the room where the balls were stored last year. Air conditioning, heating, air flow, etc. could have kept the humidity higher or lower than 55%; I have no idea what it was. All we can do is just see how T-Mobile plays compared to their AL West rivals, none of which (to my knowledge) have gone with humidors yet.
This may make some competitive sense, given that the M’s were probably stunned when Seattle suddenly stopped preventing HRs and played much more neutral in 2016-2019. With a staff of young pitchers, it might be good if the ball didn’t fly as far at home, however much that might frustrate the hitters. But again: it’s not clear that this move WOULD inhibit ball flight, and certainly not as much as the 2020 baseball’s increased drag already does. It’ll be interesting to follow this throughout the year. For now, the M’s have a wRC+ of 119 on the road, compared to that ugly 64 at home. These are splits of an already-tiny sample, but hey, you know the drill.
We’re at the 1/3 mark on this little season-let, and the M’s brass is pretty encouraged with how things are going. Not on the field, but the progress in remaking what had been a moribund farm system. That Seattle Times story from Ryan Divish talks about the M’s system ranking #3 in BaseballAmerica’s new system rankings, up from, well, 30 a few years ago.
Different fans react to this very differently, from optimists excited that the vaunted plan is coming together, and pessimists pointing to other times the M’s have amassed a stable of highly-regarded prospects. It’s so easy to move the goalposts; I’ve derided the team talking about contention in 2019-2020, then 2021, and Divish’s story quotes Dipoto speculating that it could be 2022. But then, if they’re really good a year ‘late’ I don’t think anyone will deduct style points or whatever. What we need to do is figure out how to measure the success or failure of each year, starting with this one. Essentially, we need to get more specific about measuring progress (or the lack thereof).
So, what should it be? Does *each* young player the M’s are counting on need to meet some target? Or most? Or half? To me, some of the most important measures are: Can Sheffield and Dunn limit walks, namely, can they keep their BB% around 9-9.5%? Can Dunn strike out 7-8 per 9? Can Evan White strike out less than 30% from this point forward? Can JP Crawford finish with an ISO above .130 and a K% less than 20% (he’s shattering that K% goal right now)? Can Kyle Lewis maintain his hot start by hitting at a 110 wRC+/DRC+ level from here until the end of the year? Can Yusei Kikuchi finish the year with an ERA/FIP nearer to 4-4.5?
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, 1B
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Long, 2B
7: Vogelbach, DH
8: Lopes, LF
9: Smith, RF
SP: Walker
Game 19, Mariners at Rangers – Kyle’s House
Marco Gonzales vs. Mike Minor, 6:05pm
After a nice easy victory in the Rangers’ new park, the M’s are back at it with their ace facing veteran starter, Mike Minor. It was going to be interesting to see if Kyle Seager’s long-standing success in Arlington would follow him a few miles to the new Globe Life Field, and a grand slam would seem to settle the matter. Wherever it is, whatever you call it, the park the Rangers play in is Kyle’s House.
Minor’s been one of two remarkably good (cheap) free agent pick-ups by the Rangers. After years with the Braves and then a relief season with the Royals, the Rangers picked him up and converted him back to starting. He rewarded them with an above average season in only 157 innings, using good control and enough barrel-avoidance to run a .257 BABIP. Much of this is attributed to his very high-spin fastball, which he rode to a 6 (or 4) WAR season, depending on if you like RA9-based WAR or FIP-based WAR in 2019. The out-of-the-running Rangers thought about dealing him, but when their other FA pick-up, Lance Lynn, made a run at the Cy Young award, they thought they’d keep both and see where they stood in 2020.
Like a few pitchers we’ve seen – including Justin Dunn last night! – Minor’s velocity is down pretty noticeably this year. He averaged 92.8 last year on his fastball, but only 90.7 this year. Remember that velo is generally lowest in April and *peaks* in August with the warmer weather, and it’s got to be a bit of a concern. It’s coincided with an upward trend in his BABIP and two pretty poor starts his last two times taking the ball: he’s given 13 hits and 11 runs in 10 2/3 IP.
Minor also throws a change and slider, each at 27% of his pitches. He’s got a curve he’s used more in the past, so he does have a real four-pitch mix. The lefty has very even platoon splits in his lengthy career.
Justin Dunn worked around some wildness to have his best start yet last night, working 6 innings for his first big league W. As I alluded to above, though, he sat at 90 mph on his four-seam fastball, down significantly from previous starts. We’ve gone through worrying about velo in Arlington before, but it’s something to watch. Of course, what hitters do with the pitch is more important than its velocity, and it was fascinating to see how different the pitch played. I mentioned in yesterday’s post that his lack of command/control with the fastball meant that hitters didn’t swing at it. The Rangers broadcast made a big deal of the fact that he hadn’t given up a hit on the pitch, but that wasn’t because it’s some amazingly hard-to-hit offering: he just couldn’t find the zone, and batters just walked instead. Coming in, batters swung at about 30% of his fastballs. Last night, it was just about 50% (24 of 50), and since it was coming in with below-average oomph, they put a ton of those fastballs into play.
It worked last night, in part because Dunn was able to get two absolutely huge strikeouts after allowing the first two batters to reach in the 5th. But those were his only Ks; he’s sitting at 8 on the year, and has still walked more than he’s K’d. This is concerning, as nice as it was to see his fight in the 5th-6th. I’ll be curious to see if that FB velo was the result of a conscious decision to allow more balls in play/fewer walks, or just a one-game blip after what amounts to a long road trip for 2020 (the Seattle-to-Texas flights have to be about the longest travel in the Covid-sports-world).
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Long, 2B
7: White, 1B
8: Gordon, LF
9: Lopes, DH
SP: Gonzales
Lots of moves around the league today. The M’s have picked up Seth Frankoff, who pitched a few games for the Cubs a few years back, and who spent 2018-2019 starting in Korea for the Doosan Bears. In his limited views in the bigs, Frankoff has a sinker and fourseamer around 92, a cutter at 88, and a curve. He didn’t show it for Chicago, but he’s also got a change-up with plenty of armside run.
The Rangers picked up ex-Reds slugger Derek Dietrich a few days ago, assigning him to their alternate site. But they’ve called him up for tonight’s game, which perhaps makes some sense, as many Rangers starters like Rougned Odor, are really struggling at the plate. They’ve also brought up pitcher Wes Benjamin, optioning Jimmy Herget, who pitches last night, along with rookie Anderson Tejeda.
The biggest news of the day was M’s prospect Austin Shenton taking a George Kirby pitch *over Cheney’s CF wall*. This is such a rare, improbable feat that I wouldn’t have believed it had News Tribune writer Lauren Smith not got the video. Rainiers’ radio guy Mike Curto’s done a lot of sleuthing over the years about batters who’ve homered over the tall wall that rises at 425 feet at Cheney. The first absolute no-doubt HR over the wall was hit by AJ Zapp, the R’s first baseman, in 2004. The very next year, M’s prospect Shin-Soo Choo hit another one, in a game attended by your humble scribe, because King Felix was the R’s starting pitcher. That game was played with a powerful wind blowing directly out, a factor that helped Choo’s drive immensely, and which contributed to an off-night by Felix standards (he gave up 2 wind-aided HRs, and walked 3 to just 2 Ks in 7 IP).
Other than those two in-game bombs, Curto mentions that just two players have done it *in BP/practice*. The first was Jose Canseco of the old Tacoma Tigers, and Jay Buhner in 2001, when he was on a rehab assignment. Shenton’s bomb didn’t have wind assistance, and while it wasn’t in a real game environment, it was a hell of a lot closer to it than batting practice. Given the height of the wall, that’s gotta be nearing the 460′ foot or so HR that the Nats Juan Soto hit in New York the other night. Amazing.
Game 18, Mariners at Rangers: Mixed Signals
Justin Dunn vs. Kyle Gibson, 6:05pm
Sorry for the lack of a post yesterday, though I was kind of planning on writing about Justus Sheffield’s lack of development, and how he really needed to show some signs of being able to compete consistently at the big league level. Well, he certainly showed a sign. 6 scoreless, and no walks, 7 Ks? That’ll do nicely. Somewhat similar to Justin Dunn, I’d been growing concerned about Sheffield’s fastball. With the shift to a sinker, he’s lost velocity, and it’s now a below-average pitch in terms of release speed. It’s definitely picked up sink, and should be a ground ball pitch, but it can’t get grounders if no one swings. The slider’s great, but a slider-dominant pitcher seems destined for the bullpen.
But Sheffield showed a template of how to succeed as a starter yesterday. Yes, the pitch mix was tilted strongly in favor of the slider, but he was able to throw the sinker for strikes, getting 6 called strikes along with a smattering of fouls, and a couple of whiffs. He gave up just 7 balls in play off the pitch, which is probably just what he and the M’s want: get some swings, get a couple of grounders, but keep showcasing the slider that’s so troublesome.
Of note: that slider’s a flyball pitch, at least when batters can hit it. That’s helped drive Sheffield’s GB% down at least in the early-going this year. It’s kind of an anomalous result given the shift to a sinker, but it’s probably understandable if the M’s have Sheff throw more sliders than any other pitch type.
Dunn’s in a very similar situation to Sheffield last year. His four-seam fastball isn’t blazingly fast, it doesn’t have the high spin or rise that might help it play really well at the top of the zone, and worst of all, he hasn’t been able to command the thing at all. This year, the result is simply that no one’s swinging at it. Batters are still taking over 70% of his fastballs, an insanely high take% for a fastball (it’s usually about 50:50). Things are fine if they DO swing, as they’re hitting grounders or missing it entirely, but the problem’s that they’re content to take called balls and earn a walk.
Dunn’s slider looks great by movement data. It really sweeps across the zone, thanks to a 3/4 or lower 3/4 arm slot, and it has good vertical movement, too. That isn’t necessarily because of spin. Dunn’s slider possesses nowhere near the tight spin of Austin Adams’, Matt Magill’s, or even Taylor Williams. In fact, it’s a bit behind Justus “freakishly low fastball spin” Sheffield’s, and well behind league average. But given the slot, spin direction, and velo (low 80s), it gets nice two-plane break. Here’s the problem, though: batters don’t seem to care.
All three of the big league HRs he’s given up have come off of the slider, and he’s simply not putting away people at the rates you’d expect. It’s still early days for Dunn, but I’d like to see how this skillset is going to work consistently as a starter. Sheffield showed something yesterday, but Sheffield already had a weapon he knew worked against lefties and righties.
Evan White currently stands as the position player with the lowest WAR in MLB. To say that things have been rough is an understatement, and while he made more contact yesterday, he still looks kind of lost (he’s not the only M’s hitter that this could apply to). Yes, his BABIP is atrocious, but a 43% K rate won’t play at 1B or anywhere else. The M’s player development group is to be commended for the work they did with White and Dunn at AA Arkansas, but there’s plenty more to be done. The M’s desperately need White to take the 1B job for the next decade. If they’re going to compete in the medium term, they can’t have the kind of holes they have in their rotation and line-up.
That’s depressing, so let’s focus on the good stuff: Houston is having development issues of its own. For the second straight season, Josh James is struggling mightily. From a pure stuff point of view, he’s probably the most talented young pitcher in the AL West with the possible exception of Jesus Luzardo, but nothing’s working for him right now. The Astros turned an org depth guy into a star thanks to a sleep apnea diagnosis and good instruction, but as with Dunn, they need to take the next step, and it hasn’t happened…again. Chris Devenski’s 2019 struggles are back. Their young position player future stars in Kyle Tucker and Abraham Toro have face-planted early on.
No one expects everything to go right in player development (well, maaaaybe the Dodgers), but this has to be worrying for Houston. They let Gerrit Cole go, and now have lost Justin Verlander. After trading a number of pitching prospects these past few years, they made a big bet on their PD group to help them through. So far, it’s not exactly working. It’s very early, but the A’s are putting some distance between them at the top of the division.
The M’s head to Texas now for a series against the Rangers in their brand new ballpark. The new park is covered, which helps on these August days when the temperature’s 100 degrees. But after struggling at the plate this season, the Rangers and M’s have agreed to open the roof for today’s contest, where the temperature is…100 degrees. Hmm.
The M’s face long-time Twins sinkerballer Kyle Gibson. Gibson’s sinker (and four-seamer to lefties) comes from a high angle, which may make it harder for batters to really pick up, even though they’ve now faced him many times before. He’s not a strikeout guy, and battled inconsistency in the Twin Cities, which is part of the reason they let him walk. He gives up a fair number of HRs, and has battled some control issues off and on, but is a fairly dependable innings eater for a back-of-the-rotation starter. Texas may see if there’s something more in there, but so far haven’t really changed his arsenal. His best pitch is a slider that works against RHB and LHBs. As you’d expect, the righty has had more trouble against lefties, who K less and walk more against him than RHBs. But it’s righties who’ve hit HRs more frequently, so this isn’t necessarily a bad match up for Kyle Lewis.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, RF
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Long,
7: White, 1B
8: Vogelbach, DH
9: Lopes, LF
SP: Dunn
Ryan Divish had a story on Vogelbach’s slow start and how it could force a roster move soon. Vogie’s out of options.
Also per Divish: the M’s have put Carl Edwards Jr. on the IL, recalling Bryan Shaw. They’ve also picked up free-agent reliever Brady Lail, who’d just been released by the White Sox. In a just 2 games for the Sox and Yankees, Lail showed a really interesting change-up, a cutter, and a disappointing four-seam fastball at 90-91. Just from the movement, you can tell he was a Yankee farmhand; the telltale four-seam movement and change drop seem to be highly prized, and have worked well with some players. Less well with Nick Rumbelow and Nestor Cortes, Jr.
Game 16, Rockies at Mariners
Nick Margevicius vs. Ryan Castellani, 6:10pm
Yusei Kikuchi probably pitched a bit better than his line last night, but starters will need to be pretty flawless given the quality of the M’s bullpen. By Fangraphs, they’re the worst ‘pen in MLB, with a FIP near 7. A couple of other teams have even worse ERAs, but the M’s are pretty close. The reason isn’t a big shock. They’re walking too many, and they’re giving up HRs like they’re throwing rubber balls. This was always a problem on the roster, and the club probably expects to get actual prospects coming through the ‘pen in the next year or two. But again, it’s got to be a bit of a concern that they can’t help them get up to a “bad” but not “avert your eyes” level of performance.
Today, the M’s face Ryan Castellani, who’s making his big league debut. Castellani was a 2nd round pick back in 2014, and has made a slow rise up the system thanks to injuries and inconsistency. He pitched only 40+ innings last year due to elbow trouble. While he was active, he really struggled – he walked 30 and hit 5 in 43 IP, and somehow found time to allow 14 HRs, or nearly 3 per 9. He was better, but still not good, back in 2018, too. Even when healthy and effective-ish, Castellani was never a strikeout guy, either.
Castellani pitched in the AFL a few years ago, and at the time, threw two fastballs around 93 from a low 3/4 arm-slot (FG called him a Max Scherzer clone from a mechanical point of view). He’s got a bit of run on his sinker, but not a ton, especially considering that arm slot. He’s also got a change, a slider, and a curve. The breaking balls are probably the best of his offerings. With a deep arsenal, what used to be good control, and okay velocity, it’s not a shock that Castellani’s a top 20 prospect in a not-too-deep Rockies system. But because of…everything else, he’s not a top-10 guy or a high ceiling guy. He *does* have that super heavy, sinking four-seam fastball so beloved by the Rockies, and he can use that sinker to righties as well. A change and curve would seem to give him options to throw to lefties, too. We’ll see if he’s able to take this starting opportunity, or if he heads to the bullpen where his FB might play up.
Nick Margevicius will make his first start in a Seattle uniform, but he made 12 last year with San Diego. The lefty has below-average velo, with a four-seam fastball around 88-89. It’s very straight, and has pretty good rise despite average to low spin. He also has a change, a curve, and his preferred secondary, a slider. An underpowered fastball and a sliedr seems like a recipe for bad platoon splits, and in his short career, he’s got them. They’re just not what you think. He’s really, really struggled against the few lefties he’s faced, while he’s been so-so against righties. Lefties really seem to see his fastball well, but without a ton of batters-faced, that could be small-sample weirdness.
1: Crawford, SS
2: Long, 2B
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Vogelbach, DH
6: White, 1B
7: Lopes, LF
8: Smith, RF
9: Hudson, C
SP: Margevicius
Game 15, Rockies at Mariners
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Antonio Senzatela, 6:40pm
A day after Taijuan Walker wasn’t quite able to recapture the electrifying form that saw his toss 7 IP of 1H, 0R ball, Yusei Kikuchi will try to follow up his own gem. This is the sort of thing that Kikuchi’s found difficult. After some slight tweaks to his mechanics, he fired a brilliant shutout of Toronto last August, allowing 2 hits and striking out 8 to just 1 walk. His next outing, he gave up 5 runs in 4 lackluster innings, with 3 walks and just a single K. This is a new year, though, and he’s got to be confident coming off 6 shutout against Oakland.
The Rockies come in hot, and they’re the surprise early leaders of the NL West at 9-3. This isn’t because their line-up is carrying them, either. Nolan Arenado is showing signs of life after a poor start, but their wRC+ is just 97, the exact same mark as Seattle’s. Ok, ok, their other numbers look better: K:BB ratio, K rate, ISO, batting average, etc. But after accounting for the differences in playing environment between Denver and Seattle, it comes out pretty even.
No, the real reason for their success isn’t hitting a ton of HRs. It’s preventing them. Despite a poor team strikeout rate, the Rockies have allowed far under 1 HR/9, and have a team FIP of 3.51. They have the second lowest HR/FB ratio behind Oakland, which is remarkable for a team playing at altitude. For years now, they’ve run very high GB rates, particularly as a starting rotation. That’s still broadly true, though it’s not as extreme as it was when I was completely stumped by them back in 2017. They *Still* throw more four-seam fastballs than almost anyone else (they’re second in MLB so far behind Houston), and they still get grounders. How?
They throw *weird* four-seamers. Today’s starter, Antonio Senzatela, is a microcosm of the approach. Senzatela’s four-seamer is thrown pretty hard, at 94-95, and when he came up in 2017, he threw it all the time: over 70% of his pitches were heaters. It was arrow-straight, but because of very low spin, it didn’t rise as much as it “should”, and presumably confused some hitters. He didn’t throw it up in the zone per se; he’s always moved it around, but stays close to the middle of the zone, vertically. He mixed in a slider, and was functionally a two-pitch starter, without any real swing-and-miss offerings. It worked, though – at least for a while. He slumped in 2019, with his K rate falling and his walk rate rising along with HRs (the drag-free baseball probably hurt him).
Thus, Senzatela’s made a slight adjustment. His spin rate is up noticeably this year, but his vertical movement is down signficantly. He was always below average, but his “rise” is over 1.5 standard deviations from the mean this year. He’s cutting his fastball, killing its backspin. Interestingly, he’s not the only Rockie to do this. It looks like Jon Gray is doing the same thing. Despite low spin of his own, Gray’s fastball had average rise in 2017. Now, it too is nearly 2 standard deviations below average. While his spin rate hasn’t spiked, just looking at the movement on his pitches shows that he’s added plenty of sidespin and choked off backspin. Will it work? Both struggled in recent years, and both are pitching fairly well in the early going, but it’s too early to say. Gray’s not missing *any* bats, and while that was never really Senzatela’s game, both could use some additional swing-and-miss pitches.
Senzatela’s giving it a go, adding a curve and change to his FB/SL arsenal. Interestingly, Senzatela’s ground ball rate has plummeted in the early going, but he hasn’t yielded any HRs yet. Gray’s GB rate is still high (though not as high as it has been). Another interesting thing to monitor in this short season.
One factor that may be helping them is the ever-changing baseball. Today, Rob Arthur had a great article at BP (it’s free) showing that drag on baseballs has crept back *up* after falling through the floor in 2019, leading to a massive glut of dingers. Less aerodynamic baseballs mean shorter distances given the same speed/angle, and thus, fewer homers. That’s probably good news for Yusei Kikuchi, too.
1: Long, 2B
2: Moore, 1B
3: Lewis, CF
4: Seager, 3B
5: Nola, C
6: Vogelbach, DH
7: Lopes, LF
8: Gordon, SS
9: Smith, RF
SP: Kikuchi
Interesting line-up today, with Dee Gordon moving to shortstop and Dylan Moore playing 1B. Evan White very clearly needed a day off, as he’s got just 6 hits and 24Ks in 56 PAs. His struggles with fastballs weren’t improving, and Dylan Bundy got him out throwing three elevated fastballs at 90 MPH right by the first baseman. He’ll get it going at some point, but it’s a bit ugly right now. That had been true of Vogelbach, but he had his best game at the plate in a while yesterday, with a dinger and some loud contact. Smith and Gordon are still mired in serious slumps, but it’s probably good to get JP Crawford a day off, as he’s cooled in the last week; he’s also made more plate appearances than anyone on the club.
Rob Arthur also notes that MLB’s switched its pitch tracking/ball tracking technology from TrackMan radar to a camera-based system called Hawkeye. There are always data gremlins when shifting from one data source to another, and that changeover seems to be wreaking havoc with the xBA numbers I quoted in yesterday’s piece on BABIP. That said, the BABIP numbers are what the are; that’s not the product of any sort of system, it’s just the product of watching games. It DOES make it harder to know what to make of the lowered exit velocities and launch angles. Intuitively, they make sense: something has to be causing the spike in outs per ground ball. But it’s hard to know what it is yet.
Game 14, Angels at Mariners: What’s Going on with Grounders?
Taijuan Walker vs. Dylan Bundy, 1:10pm
It’s out first day game of the season, and another game against Dylan Bundy, the apparent anchor of a scuffling Angels rotation and staff. Bundy pitched well against the M’s last week, striking out 8 in 6 IP, but he made one mistake that proved decisive: an early mistake that Jose Marmolejos hit for a three-run bomb in the M’s 3-2 win. Tai Walker was even better HIS last outing, tossing 7 scoreless against Oakland in an M’s win.
I spent a lot of time discussing Bundy’s arsenal and its evolution last week, so let’s talk about a global trend in 2020. This morning, MLB Data Architect, former M’s advisor, and friend of this…uh…enterprise, Tom Tango, mentioned an early-season oddity:
Since start of 2020 season, fielders have converted into outs 71.1% of the 7630 balls of hit into play
In 2019, there was NO STRETCH where fielders converted as many plays into outs. The average was 69.1%
2020 is 3.8 standard deviations from 2019
DER is essentially 1 – BABIP
Defensive efficiency is way, way up in the early going. That is, fewer and fewer balls in play are finding empty spaces and becoming hits. It’s only two weeks, of course, but Tango says there was no individual stretch in 2019 in which DER was this high. This is not just a small-sample oddity.
I decided to break this down by batted-ball type, and the thing that jumps off the page is ground balls. Tango mentions that the same basic pattern holds for liners and fly balls, too, but ground balls…well, just look. Here’s a table of the batting average and MLB’s expected batting average (xBA) by year. See if you can spot the outlier:
| BA | xBA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0.249 | 0.25 |
| 2018 | 0.246 | 0.246 |
| 2019 | 0.242 | 0.245 |
| 2020 | 0.215 | 0.261 |
This is odd; xBA has never been higher, but BA has never been *close* to this low. What happens when we add exit velocity (the speed off the bat) and launch angle (the angle off the bat)?
| BA | xBA | EV | LA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0.249 | 0.25 | 83.8 | -11.8 |
| 2018 | 0.246 | 0.246 | 86 | -11.8 |
| 2019 | 0.242 | 0.245 | 86.1 | -11.6 |
| 2020 | 0.215 | 0.261 | 84.3 | -12.7 |
Launch angle is *lower* than any other year, and speed-off-the-bat is much lower than the prior two years. Yes, 2017 was even lower, but I believe there were more “missed” balls in play back then. Focus mostly on 2019 to 2020: these are pretty sizable changes. And because we’re comparing to 2019, you can’t argue it’s because teams are suddenly shifting more; they shifted all the time in 2019!
What kinds of pitches turn into ground balls, and is there anything odd there? Well, the drop in sinker usage has meant that whereas the plurality of grounders were hit on sinkers back in 2017, that’s not true any more: in 2019 and 2020, the most grounders are hit off of four-seam fastballs. That has accelerated here in 2020, with 28% of grounders coming on four-seamers compared to 25.7% last year, with sinkers’ share dropping from 24% in 2019 to 22% this year. Breaking balls’ share of ground balls had been steadily moving upwards (just as breaking ball usage had), but that’s stopped so far. Instead, the share of sliders+curves is at 24% this year, down from 26% last year, while off-speed pitches (change-ups and splitters) are filling the gap. Off-speed pitches’ share is up to 18% from 16% last year. (Note: percentages don’t add up to 100% because I’m leaving off the “everything else” category like knuckleballs, eephus pitches, and cutters).
Balls in play hit off of four-seamers have the highest average exit velocity, so a larger share of four-seam grounders should *increase* the average exit velocity, I would think. Instead, exit velocities on all types have just cratered. But nowhere is that drop more pronounced than on fastballs. Here’s four-seamers:
| FF | BA | xBA | EV | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0.282 | 0.279 | 86.7 | -10 |
| 2018 | 0.283 | 0.278 | 89 | -9.8 |
| 2019 | 0.287 | 0.28 | 89.3 | -9.5 |
| 2020 | 0.24 | 0.295 | 88.3 | -10.4 |
And here are sinkers/two-seamers:
| Sinkers | BA | xBA | EV | LA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 0.246 | 0.244 | 85.2 | -13.1 |
| 2018 | 0.246 | 0.248 | 87.8 | -13.2 |
| 2019 | 0.242 | 0.238 | 87.7 | -13.3 |
| 2020 | 0.207 | 0.251 | 86 | -14.9 |
Again, these results hold for breaking balls (where BA dropped from .228 last year to .211 this year) and change-ups (BA of .197 in 2019, and .177 in 2020). But look at that drop for sinkers! And look at the .047 drop in four-seamer BA! In all cases, the launch angle is lower in 2020 than it’s ever been, and exit velo’s lower than the previous two years – in some cases by nearly 2 MPH. I don’t know what’s causing this, but it’ll merit some attention through the rest of the season. Pitchers’ stuff has gotten exceedingly nasty, so maybe it’s understandable we’d see more mis-hits (like the one Jo Adell used to pick up his first big league hit), but that was true in 2019, and we didn’t quite see….this.
So: any theories? What could be causing this? And is the rise in expected batting average just some sort of data gremlin, or is it *better* to hit slow/topped ground balls? In this Q and A with the Dome and Bedlam blog (which you should check out), M’s analyst and ex-Baseball Prospectus guy John Choiniere mentioned that part of his role in infield positioning, so maybe he and, uh, all of his colleagues throughout the league figured something out this offseason?
Anyway, today’s line-up:
1: Crawford, SS
2: Moore, RF
3: Seager, 3B
4: Vogelbach, DH
5: Long, 2B
6: White, 1B
7: Gordon, LF
8: Smith, CF
9: Hudson, C
SP: Taijuan Walker
Kind of a B-team line-up with Austin Nola and of course Kyle Lewis sitting out. Shohei Ohtani’s in the Angels’ line-up at DH for the first time since his diagnosis with a forearm strain that’ll keep him from pitching this season.
Jose Marmolejos isn’t available for important dingers in today’s rematch with Dylan Bundy. Instead, he and RP Bryan Shaw were optioned to Tacoma today, as teams need to trim their rosters from 30 to 28.