Second Place Seattle Mariners Travel to First Place Cleveland Indians
| MARINERS (20-21) | ΔMs | INDIANS (22-17) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -7.0 (21st) | 2.9 | 28.3 (2nd) | Indians |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 7.9 (8th) | -1.8 | 8.9 (7th) | Indians |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 13.6 (7th) | 3.4 | 3.0 (12th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 4.4 (11th) | 2.3 | -2.2 (21st) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 19.0 (10th) | 6.9 | 38.1 (3rd) | INDIANS |
A team’s record in one-run games is a number worth paying attention to. Vastly outperforming .500 in that regard is often a fluke, but sometimes can be sustained with an especially dominant bullpen staff. Seeing a team that’s run itself well to the positive or negative side of even on those games can be a good hint that the team may not be as good or as bad as their overall record indicates.
The Yankees entered the series against the Mariners with a 7-2 record in one-run games. Additionally, the Yankees had had the benefit of playing the incredibly underwhelming Blue Jays seven times, during which they racked up a 6-1 record. Still — and even though the above ratings spit out a comparison that favored the Mariners before the series started — it’s hard not to have watched those past three games and wondered exactly how it is that the Yankees accrued so many wins this early into 2013. They don’t look particularly formidable.
In contrast, I think the Indians are a mixed bag. On one hand, they’re perhaps ripe for a similar regression in their record as it’s been bolstered by a very high 10-3 record in one-run games. The Indians’ pen has run themselves a very good ERA so far, but it’s also 0.75 better than their xFIP and much better than their xRA is saying they’ve independently performed.
On the other, their crop of position players have been excellent of late and their overall record is fair given the entire team performance.
The Mariners Shot at .500 Runs Into New York
| MARINERS (18-20) | ΔMs | YANKEES (24-14) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -9.9 (23rd) | 1.7 | -9.7 (22nd) | Yankees |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 9.7 (6th) | 2.7 | -4.0 (20th) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 10.2 (8th) | 2.4 | 5.4 (10th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 2.1 (12th) | 1.4 | 11.0 (1st) | Yankees |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 12.1 (13th) | 8.2 | 2.6 (17th) | MARINERS |
It seems far-fetched for the Mariners to actually be rated a better team than the Yankees here. I don’t think it is. First, the above categories do not capture everything about a baseball team. They capture a lot, and they capture what I feel comfortable with, and am able to, quantify on my own.
Secondly, other systems agree that the Mariners have slightly under performed their record while the Yankees have over performed theirs. The gap between the two teams in actual standings is six games. Baseball Prospectus’ third-order standings, which uses expected runs scored and allowed adjusted for opponents has the two team just two games apart.
The Yankees are coming off a double header yesterday. Perhaps that little extra fatigue can play into the Mariners favor this series.
The Mariners have Drifted Back to the Middle
| MARINERS (16-19) | ΔMs | ATHLETICS (18-18) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -11.6 (23rd) | 1.5 | 18.3 (4th) | Athletics |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 7.0 (8th) | 8.7 | -10.9 (26th) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 7.8 (8th) | 1.6 | 7.1 (9th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 0.7 (14th) | -3.8 | 1.0 (13th) | Athletics |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 3.9 (14th) | 9.4 | 15.5 (8th) | ATHLETICS |
Well that was a bad two weeks of Mariners’ baseball for me to miss as the M’s went 8-4 and climbed back to the edge of contention. They hadn’t been as bad as their record back in late April so some regression in the win-loss column is not surprising. If only they could beat the Astros as other teams do they could be above that .500 plateau right now.
Mariners Possibly Await Their Doom
| MARINERS (8-15) | ΔMs | ANGELS (8-12) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -13.1 (26th) | 2.9 | 11.6 (6th) | Angels |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | -1.7 (16th) | -6.9 | 1.9 (12th) | Angels |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 6.2 (7th) | 0.7 | -20.8 (30th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 3.1 (6th) | 2.0 | -7.6 (29th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | -5.5 (16th) | -1.2 | -14.9 (23rd) | MARINERS |
Welp.
If you listened to the podcast below you can gleam a general sense of mine and Jeff’s current opinion on the Mariners state of affairs. Something is rotten in the state of Cascadia and judging by the schedule, it’s not going to get any easier, even if the Angels seem weak right now. The Mariners cannot even beat the Astros so this isn’t really about the other teams. It’s about the Mariners and they need to get their house in order.
This seems like an opportune time for me to take a break. Actually, after the first two games of the season would have been the best, and hopefully I will return regretting missing some fun and exciting baseball, but oh well. I’ll be back in a few weeks.
Tumbling Mariners Will Face Astros
| MARINERS (7-13) | ΔMs | ASTROS (5-13) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -16.0 (28th) | -8.2 | 0.2 (15th) | Astros |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 5.2 (11th) | 3.0 | -5.6 (21st) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 5.5 (7th) | -1.0 | -13.3 (29th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 1.1 (11th) | 0.3 | -10.6 (30th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | -4.3 (17th) | -6.1 | -29.2 (29th) | MARINERS |
Last week I spoke of my emotional difference between the records of 6-11 and 7-10 and how it seemed larger than it should in reality. Just three games later and that gap is gone. Who cares between 7-13 and 6-14? So perhaps I was more influenced by the win coming in that final game leaving a small residue of optimism. Well, mission accomplished, Mariners!
There’s certainly the opportunity for the Mariners to roll through the Astros and re-establish some fringe hope of contention. I’m not optimistic about that however. CoolStandings has the Mariners’ playoff odds already down to 8% with Baseball Prospectus even more grime at 6%. Frankly, I’m just hoping for mild entertainment. It’s a low bar, Mariners.
Mariners Visit Rangers, Series Feels Like Precipice
| MARINERS (7-10) | ΔMs | RANGERS (9-6) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -7.8 (24th) | -4.1 | -3.3 (18th) | Rangers |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 2.2 (11th) | -0.3 | 3.5 (10th) | Rangers |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 6.5 (5th) | 4.2 | 3.3 (8th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | 0.8 (13th) | 1.4 | -0.6 (17th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 1.8 (13th) | 2.3 | 2.9 (10th) | RANGERS |
Every game counts equally. Every regular season game, that is. But each game is merely 1/162th of eventual total. That’s not much, rationally. But our rational selves and our emotional selves do not communicate well. I can’t put a scientific label on it, but the difference between seeing the Mariners travel to Texas with a 7-10 record and seeing the Mariners travel to Texas with a 6-11 record seems enormous, even though it isn’t.
The Tigers came to town with a great hitting offense and entered a park that, in a stupidly small sample so far, hadn’t spelled doom like it had last year. In fact , you can’t even spell doom with Safeco Field because you don’t have an ‘m’. Anyways, the Tigers had a bunch of dangerous and hot — whatever that means (nothing) — hitters and the Mariners pitchers shut them down.
I don’t have much more to say in general. I’m going to back to trying to work and keeping tabs on Boston.
Mariners Holding Their Own Against Top Teams
| MARINERS (6-8) | ΔMs | TIGERS (7-5) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -3.7 (20th) | 2.3 | 16.5 (3rd) | Tigers |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 2.5 (12th) | 0.4 | 1.5 (16th) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 1.3 (13th) | 2.0 | 5.7 (6th) | Tigers |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | -0.6 (18th) | 0.9 | -0.6 (17th) | — |
| OVERALL (RAA) | -0.5 (16th) | 5.6 | 23.1 (3rd) | TIGERS |
The Mariners split their four-game sets with Oakland and Texas but have dropped to Chicago and Houston. Because, baseball.
Still, the news of the day will not be the forthcoming bullpen move to replace Stephen Pryor, but that the Mariners have finally done what many of us long suspected and started building a partnership group for a regional sports network.
Few actual details are available, but I’m doubting that it makes the Mariners worse off in terms of revenue. As with other recent deals, this one is a doozy in length, lasting until 2030, so both parties had to feel comfortable with growth projections to lock in together for that length.
That Old Time Feeling Returns
| MARINERS (4-6) | ΔMs | RANGERS (6-3) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -6.0 (23rd) | -1.2 | -2.2 (20th) | Rangers |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 2.1 (13th) | -10.1 | 6.8 (3rd) | Rangers |
| ROTATION (xRA) | -0.7 (17th) | 0 | 9.5 (1st) | Rangers |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | -1.5 (22nd) | 1.0 | 0.4 (15th) | Rangers |
| OVERALL (RAA) | -6.1 (20th) | -10.4 | 14.4 (4th) | RANGERS |
Well that was an unpleasant series. Both for those of us at home and for the very few that sought out attending in person. After not selling out the home opener, the Mariners saw consecutive record low numbers of visitors on Tuesday and Wednesday. The performances on those days probably didn’t do much to convince those that did attend to consider it time well spent. Not only were the games lopsided, but they also dragged on to nearly four hours each.
And now we have some fallout from it as Kameron Loe goes away and Aaron Harang enters, probably displacing someone out of the rotation, I’m assuming Blake Beavan. The implosion on Tuesday made the Mariners wary about who was going to handle innings, but that’s not the only way the roster was exposed during the series. A serious lack of bench depth and proper pinch hitting options manifested itself and now they have Michael Saunders’ injury to contend with and the possibility of some truly horrendous outfield defense arrangements.
Speaking of the bullpen, it appears not so stellar thus far, but there are some encouraging fundamentals lurking under the surface level stats. Despite only an average-ish walk rate as a unit, the Mariners’ pen has been throwing pitches in the strike zone at the second highest clip in baseball. And unlike the team that’s best at that, the Rockies, the Mariners’ pen doesn’t also suffer from the league’s highest contact rate. In fact, the Mariners are league average there. So as far as throwing strikes and missing bats, the pen seems fine.
What they have been struggling with is when contact is made, it’s been rock hard. Hitters are getting lots of fly balls and lots of those fly balls have been pulled. They’ll need to improve on that a lot or else Kameron Loe won’t be the only home run-induced casualty.
The Mariners Arrive Home
| MARINERS (3-4) | Δ Ms | ASTROS (1-5) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | -4.8 (25th) | -5.5 | -16.1 (29th) | Mariners |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 12.2 (1st) | 9.2 | -1.0 (17th) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | -0.7 (16th) | -2.7 | -4.7 (30th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | -2.5 (27th) | -1.5 | -3.5 (29th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 4.3 (11th) | -0.3 | -25.3 (30th) | MARINERS |
Haha, oh boy, Astros! That didn’t take long, guys. Now watch them take the series against the Mariners.
There’s a new column that I hope is displaying correctly. It should be an upper case Greek letter delta which is typically used to denote change. That column is the amount the Mariners have changed since the previous series preview.
Now that there’s a semblance of sample size, I feel comfortable adding in some individual hitting breakdowns. From hereon, they will cover the previous two weeks’ worth of games. Most of the above should be self-explanatory except for Qual+. Basically what Qual does is look at a hitter’s batted ball profile and compare the run value of that profile to the league average. Roughly it’s a measure of the quality of a hitter’s batted balls and put on the familiar 100 is league average scale.
| Batter | PA | P/PA | Slash line | nBB | K (sw) | 1B/2B/3B/HR | Sw% | Ct% | Qual+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Morse | 31 | 4.5 | .310/.355/.828 | 2 | 10 (10) | 4 / 0 / 0 / 5 | 53 | 60 | 177 |
| K Seager* | 30 | 4.4 | .192/.300/.308 | 4 | 4 (4) | 2 / 3 / 0 / 0 | 40 | 83 | 100 |
| K Morales^ | 26 | 3.4 | .280/.370/.480 | 1 | 3 (3) | 4 / 2 / 0 / 1 | 50 | 80 | 145 |
| J Smoak^ | 25 | 3.7 | .190/.320/.190 | 4 | 4 (4) | 4 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 40 | 78 | 154 |
| M Saunders* | 24 | 3.8 | .250/.375/.550 | 3 | 3 (2) | 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 | 42 | 84 | 107 |
| F Gutierrez | 24 | 3.8 | .304/.333/.652 | 1 | 6 (6) | 3 / 2 / 0 / 2 | 47 | 70 | 99 |
| J Montero | 22 | 3.5 | .182/.182/.182 | 0 | 4 (4) | 4 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 49 | 76 | 143 |
| D Ackley* | 22 | 4.5 | .050/.227/.050 | 2 | 3 (1) | 1 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 41 | 93 | 124 |
| B Ryan | 20 | 3.5 | .294/.400/.294 | 3 | 5 (5) | 5 / 0 / 0 / 0 | 36 | 76 | 107 |
P/PA = pitches per PA [avg~3.8], nBB = uBB + HBP, Sw = swinging [avg~45%], Ct = contact [avg~78%], Qual+ = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, higher is better]
You’ll notice that the Mariners almost universally rate above average in Qual despite having an overall poor hitting line. Currently the Mariners are running one of baseball’s lowest BABIPs but they have an average line drive rate and a well above average rate of pulled fly balls, which are the two best batted ball types historically.
It’s early and still a small sample, but that would suggest that the Mariners have been unlucky in having some balls fall in. It may be self-delusion, but at least it’s something to help you talk you off the ledge on Montero, Smoak and Ackley who collectively have batted like they play for the Astros (haha, buuuuuuurn).
It’s a bit amazing that Brendan Ryan has the team’s lowest pitches seen per plate appearance yet also the team’s lowest swing percentage and not even a stellar contact rate.
| MARINERS | Δ Ms | ASTROS | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFIELD | 5.3 (2nd) | 1.9 | -1.1 (20th) | Mariners |
| OUTFIELD | 6.9 (2nd) | 7.3 | 0.1 (14th) | Mariners |
| RBBIP | 0.227 (2nd) | .018 | 0.309 (17th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL | 12.2 (1st) | 9.2 | -1.0 (17th) | MARINERS |
It’s early. It’s early. It’s early.
There’s like no way the outfield defense stays this good. The gigantic increase over the past series might have been related to the wind at US Cell making fly balls more catchable than normal for that park.
08 APR 19:10 – JOE SAUNDERS* vs PHILIP HUMBER
Go stuff yourself, Phil Humber!
Joe Saunders did not have a great Mariner debut, but I’m not concerned yet. It’s one start which is all you need to know to dismiss any worries unless the worry was about how Saunders would pitch in the future after his arm literally came detached in that one start. That didn’t happen so we’re all good.
But I’d be remiss to just dismiss via sample size. The main peeve from the March 3 start was Saunders walking four batters. That’s quite uncharacteristic from Saunders who last had a walk rate worse than league average back in 2006.
I noticed on Saunders’ StatCorner page that his strike% — the percentage of his pitches that I evaluated as landing within the typically called strike zone — was at 49%, a decidedly average rate. And then I noticed that of pitches within the zone not swung at, 14 in total, I categorized five as being called a ball. A typical rate would have had just two of those called balls, so some combination of factors potentially cost Saunders three strikes. Three strikes isn’t overwhelming, but it ain’t nothing either.
I’ll note that none of the mentioned pitches occurred during an at bat in which the hitter walked, so perhaps it had no impact, but we can never rule out cascading effects. Curiously, the home ump that game was Doug Eddings who is regarded as having one of baseball’s largest strike zones.
09 APR 19:10 – BRANDON MAURER vs ERIK BEDARD*
Welcome back, Erik Bedard!
10 APR 19:10 – BLAKE BEAVAN vs BRAD PEACOCK
Umm, Brad Peacock?
Peacock’s first start for Houston saw 11 batted balls against him and not one of them were hit on the ground. That’s not going to stay there obviously, but Peacock has never been even close to a neutral groundballer. Humber and Bedard both slightly have flyball tendencies but Peacock has a fetish. It could make for a display of Safeco’s new cozier confines.
The Mariners Kick off a Series in Chicago
| MARINERS (2-2) | WHITE SOX (2-1) | EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA*) | 0.7 (14th) | -2.8 (20th) | Mariners |
| FIELDING (RBBIP) | 3.0 (7th) | 1.0 (9th) | Mariners |
| ROTATION (xRA) | 2.0 (4th) | 1.8 (5th) | Mariners |
| BULLPEN (xRA) | -1.0 (24th) | 0.7 (11th) | White Sox |
| OVERALL (RAA) | 4.6 (11th) | 0.8 (15th) | MARINERS |
Hello there, you may not be familiar with my series preview breakdowns. I did these, in evolving formats, for years at Lookout Landing and I hope to continue doing them here. I’ll do so even if only for my own benefit since the above and below charts are informative for me and I like to get the periodic checks on how the composite units of the Mariners are doing.
Since this may be new to you, I’ll run through what each row means. Hitting is judged on each team’s park-adjusted wOBA to date. I’m using the wOBA from my site, StatCorner.com, so that answers any questions on why it might be slightly different than FanGraphs.com or whatever your preferred site shows.
xRA is laid out in a really long post here, but the simple take is that it’s xFIP meets tRA. That is, it’s xFIP plus batted ball types and whether or not the batted balls were pulled or hit the other way.
| MARINERS | WHITE SOX | EDGE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INFIELD | 3.4 (2nd) | 5.3 (1st) | White Sox |
| OUTFIELD | -0.4 (15th) | -4.3 (26th) | Mariners |
| RBBIP | 0.245 (8th) | 0.263 (10th) | Mariners |
| OVERALL | 3.0 (7th) | 1.0 (9th) | MARINERS |
Fielding is judged by looking at how often each team allows a ball in play to result in a runner on base via either a hit or error. There’s more explanation available, but the 10,000-foot view is to take all the balls in play, adjust them for the park (yes, it has an effect), and then for each type (e.g. grounder, liner), figure out how often they should turn into outs and the cost (in run value) of not turning them into an out. Then add it all up. It can’t be used to judge individual defenders, but I’m not convinced of any metrics’ worth at doing that anyways.
Above, I split the fielding into infield and outfield units based on who I judge is responsible for fielding each batted ball type. Unremarkably, the Mariners are already showing a divergence between their infield defenders and their outfielders.
05 APR 17:10 – JOSE QUINTANA* vs BLAKE BEAVAN
I used to include what I thought were pretty cool illustrated and interactive charts here for each starting pitcher. Alas, they rely on external javascript to build and WordPress is so so lame. If anyone has experience in this manner, please get in touch with me. I’m going to continue working toward some presentation solution, but for now, here are the dates, times and starting pitchers!