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Dave’s 2006 Offseason Plan
Okay, so, after several shorter posts explaining parts of the ideology I’m taking into this offseason, and hinting around at some of my ideas, I’m finally unveiling the offseason plan. These are my suggestions on how to reshape the roster to best contend both next year and in the future. Essentially, this is what I would attempt to do if I was handed the keys to the front office and given full power to make personnel decisions.
While this kind of exercise cannot reflect reality, I’ve done my best to make sure that the transactions involved are at least within the realm of possibility. The trade values and free agent dollars are close to what I would expect the actual cost to be. And, as always, keep in mind that the ideas are more important than the names. The main thrust of this post is to get the concepts of how I would build this team across, and not necessarily an advocacy of acquiring a specific player at any cost. So, without further ado, the roster:
| Lineup | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Ichiro Suzuki | CF | $12,500,000 |
| 2. | Chris Snelling | RF | $500,000 |
| 3. | Manny Ramirez | DH | $19,000,000 |
| 4. | Jim Edmonds | LF | $8,000,000 |
| 5. | Adrian Beltre | 3B | $11,500,000 |
| 6. | Raul Ibanez | 1B | $5,000,000 |
| 7. | Kenji Johjima | C | $5,430,000 |
| 8. | Jose Lopez | 2B | $350,000 |
| 9. | Yuniesky Betancourt | SS | $450,000 |
| Bench | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Todd Greene | C | $1,000,000 |
| 2. | Willie Bloomquist | Inf | $850,000 |
| 3. | Jose Cruz Jr | OF | $500,000 |
| 4. | Mike Morse | 1B/3B | $350,000 |
| 5. | Oswaldo Navarro | Util | $350,000 |
| Rotation | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Felix Hernandez | Starter | $400,000 |
| 2. | Daisuke Matsuzaka | Starter | $6,500,000 |
| 3. | Jarrod Washburn | Starter | $9,500,000 |
| 4. | R. Lopez/A. Guzman | Starter | $1,000,000 |
| 5. | C. Baek/T. Redding | Starter | $350,000 |
| Bullpen | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | J.J. Putz | Closer | $3,000,000 |
| 2. | Mark Lowe | RH Setup | $350,000 |
| 3. | George Sherrill | LH Setup | $350,000 |
| 4. | Jon Huber | RH Middle | $350,000 |
| 5. | Eric O’Flaherty | LH Middle | $350,000 |
| 6. | Emiliano Fruto | Long Relief | $350,000 |
Whew. That’s a lot of changes to digest, I know, so here’s the specific transactions that lead to a 25 man roster that comes in at just under $89 million.
Sign Ichiro to a 3 year, $42 million extension from 2008-2010.
While this doesn’t necessarily have to be the first chronological move, it is the first domino that needs to be discussed. The way this team needs to be built this offseason, uncertainty about the team’s star center fielder (and man, it’s nice to say that) is not something they can afford to deal with. If they’re going to build a team around him, they can’t have him walk away at the end of next season. He either needs to be re-signed or traded. I’m betting on, and pulling for, re-signed.
Bid $25 million in posting fee to secure rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka and sign him to a 3 year, $30 million contract.
Convince ownership that, like they did with Ichiro, this should be a special expenditure that does not count against the budget. The key in the contract negotiations will be to not grant him free agency when the deal is up. After this contract expires, he’ll be arbitration eligible, and still under Mariner control through 2012. To justify the posting fee, the Mariners have to control his rights for six years.
Trade Richie Sexson to San Francisco for DH Eddie Martinez-Esteve and OF Nate Schierholtz.
The Giants badly need hitters and have truckloads of cash to spend, but they’ve shown a strong resistance to giving out long term contracts. Sexson’s 2 year, $28 million deal is a bargain compared to Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano’s demands, and the Giants get their cleanup hitter for a pair of outfield prospects who may or may not develop into major league regulars. The Mariners clear salary space for other acquisitions, as well as acquiring two bats who could potentially help in the second half of 2007 or 2008.
Trade Ben Broussard and Julio Mateo to Baltimore for RHP Jim Johnson.
The Mariners continue to clear salary and roster spots, saving about $5 million in salary in this deal and bringing in a 23-year-old starting pitching prospect who could be stashed in Tacoma and provide rotation depth. The Orioles badly need some power in their line-up, as well as bullpen help, and they have a surplus of younger starting pitchers. Johnson adds depth to the Tacoma rotation, giving them another guy with a good arm who is a couple improvements away from being in the mix for an end-of-rotation starter spot.
Trade Rafael Soriano, Jeremy Reed, and Francisco Cruceta to Boston for DH Manny Ramirez.
The annual Manny Ramirez trade request has reportedly occurred again, and the Mariners are one of a few teams that could actually swallow the $38 million he’s still owed, have a need for a DH, and have the young talent the Red Sox will demand in return. The Mariners significant bullpen depth will allow them to survive the loss of Soriano and Curceta, while Jeremy Reed’s spot with the team has essentially been usurped by Chris Snelling. Reed gives the Red Sox a cheap legitimate center fielder, allowing them to shift Crisp back to left field and significantly upgrade their outfield defense. Soriano gives them a young flamethrowing reliever to replace Papelbon, and Cruceta gives them depth in middle relief or as a swing starter. Boston also sheds $19 million in salary commitments each of the next two years, allowing them to chase another top tier free agent.
Trade Eduardo Perez, Wladmir Balentien and Justin Thomas to St. Louis for Jim Edmonds and $2 million in cash.
The Cardinals have made overtures about declining the option on Jim Edmonds’ contract and paying him a $3 million buyout rather than having him under contract next year at $10 million. His injuries have hurt them this year, and at 38, he’s definitely at the end of his career. However, he’s still a productive player when he’s on the field, and the Mariners should take advantage of the Cardinals need to retool. Balentien and Thomas give them two midlevel prospects, Perez gives LaRussa another bat off the bench, and they save $1 million in cash by not paying the buyout to make him a free agent. The Mariners, in turn, get a patient left-handed slugging outfielder whose swing is perfect for Safeco Field and would provide an all around upgrade in the outfield. His defense isn’t what it was, but he’d be a major improvement in left field, and his offense against RHP is still among the best in the league.
Trade Jake Woods, Nate Schierholtz and Michael Wilson to the Cubs for RHP Angel Guzman.
Guzman is a classic change-of-scenery guy. A former top prospect, who has dominated the minors with his fastball/change combination, has struggled in Chicago, and at age 25, the Cubs are running low on patience. Their desire to add a veteran to the rotation this offseason likely eliminates his chances of landing a job in the 2007 rotation, and the Cubs could certainly use a couple of outfield prospects with some power in their bats.
He gives the Mariners another league minimum option as an end of rotation starter with significant upside. He uses his changeup as an out-pitch weapon to miss bats and has shown good command throughout his career in the minors. His breaking ball is still average, but the change-up is good enough to feature as his offspeed pitch. As a flyball pitcher, leaving Wrigley for Safeco would be a dream come true. Baseball is littered with guys who profiled as Guzman did, struggled early in their careers, and developed into useful starting pitchers later. Call it the Carl Pavano mold.
Sign C Todd Greene, RHP Rodrigo Lopez, RHP Tim Redding, and OF Jose Cruz Jr to one year contracts.
Having spent a huge majority of the payroll on Ramirez, Edmonds, and Matsuzaka, the M’s need to get some undervalued role players to fill out the roster. I’ve written up Lopez before, so read that post if you haven’t before. Greene gives the Mariners a backup catcher with a little power who would be a significant improvement over Rene Rivera, and Jose Cruz Jr gives the team a fourth outfielder that can hit left-handers and play both corners as well as center in a pinch. Redding comes in to challenge Baek for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Convert Raul Ibanez to first base.
For the pitching staff’s sake, Ibanez needs to get out of left field, but he’s been consistent in his desire to play the field. With the acqusition of Manny Ramirez, DH is taken, and the removal of Broussard’s contract was necessary to get the team under payroll. Ibanez has played first for long stretches before, and with an offseason of preperation and some work with Mike Goff, he should be adequate at the position. The defensive improvement Edmonds provides in left will more than make up for any frustrations we’d have with Ibanez at first.
_____________________________________________________________________
Okay, so, that’s the team. The total payroll for the 25 man roster comes in at $88.7 million. The team is, in my opinion, significantly better than the one they’re going to end the year with, and a team that is good enough to win a World Series. Seriously. Let’s take a look at some strengths and weaknesses:
Team Strengths
This team can hit. You’re looking at something like an .800 OPS, in Safeco, from this line-up, as long as Ramirez and Edmonds each play 140 games. Aside from the Yankees and their all-star lineup, it would have a chance to be the best in the American League. The defense would also be upgraded, which would have a cascading effect to improve the pitching staff. There’s not a bad position player on the team, and while the bench isn’t great, there’s depth in the upper minors. It also is a roster that doesn’t block the long term positions of the organization’s better prospects, and gives opportunities for young players to break into roles once they’ve shown they can succeed in the minors. And, for what its worth, Jim Edmonds is a revered clubhouse leader with all kinds of playoff experience, and should at least provide a respected voice in the clubhouse.
Team Weaknesses
Injuries could be a big problem. Snelling, Ramirez, and Edmonds haven’t been pictures of health, and that’s the heart of the batting order. There’s not a true first baseman on the roster, so if Ibanez and Morse are absurdly awful with the glove, you have to live with it. The bullpen’s depth has been thinned out significantly, and you’d be leaning on unproven pitchers for significant contributions in the middle innings. The back of the rotation is filled with innings eaters who lack a true outpitch, and, with the exception of Angel Guzman, are not the power arms the organization covets. The pitching staff would be built around a 21-year-old and a guy who has never pitched an inning in the majors.
Expectations
Knowing the risks and the potential failures, this is still a good team with a real shot to go deep in the playoffs. On paper, depending on what the rest of the AL West does, I’d pencil it in for 85-95 wins. The key players would be Edmonds, Felix, and Matsuzaka, with the performance of those three probably determining how far the team goes. It’s a good enough team to win the AL West in 2007, and it’s still a team that is young in the core and is setup to contend long term. The Mariners can win next year with this roster and not sacrifice the future to do so.
Comments
271 Responses to “Dave’s 2006 Offseason Plan”
Great post Dave. It’s been thrown around for months that SF is a great place to dump Sexson…..what % chance do you think there is of that actually happening this offseason?
If Dave were any smarter, his head would explode.
The only thing I don’t like is Manny Ramirez. I don’t think his power will work in SafeCo. Checking with the Stats Inc. charts, I think it probable.
Thoughts?
Everything else looks freaking brilliant.
(your links didn’t work)
Hmm, that’s not bad.
The main thrust of this post is to get the concepts of how I would build this team across, and not necessarily an advocacy of acquiring a specific player at any cost.
Yeah, flexibility is good. WHat you’re proposing definitely has some offensive upside- essentially it trades the mess at DH for Manny and the mess in CF for Edmonds.
You’re also selling the M’s current offense short, a bit. The M’s had a .761 OPS in neutral parks, with below replacement-level contributions from 22% of the lineup (CF and DH). I think this lineup maybe rivals the Yankees if everyone stays healthy.
Great post Dave. It’s been thrown around for months that SF is a great place to dump Sexson…..what % chance do you think there is of that actually happening this offseason?
10%, maybe less. I get the feeling that the way he’s ended the year, the organization will be too scared to move him. If they’re going to move a position player, it’s probably Broussard. Remember, this team loves to evaluate players based on what they see. Their lasting memories are going to be of Sexson tearing the cover off the ball, and Broussard hitting .200 and striking out all the time.
If Dave were any smarter, his head would explode.
Can I put this on my business card?
The only thing I don’t like is Manny Ramirez. I don’t think his power will work in SafeCo.
Safeco will take a chunk out of his production, just like it does almost every RHB on the planet. So, instead of hitting .320/.420/.600, he’ll probably hit .300/.400/.550. I’ll still take that, no problem.
You’re also selling the M’s current offense short, a bit. The M’s had a .761 OPS in neutral parks, with below replacement-level contributions from 22% of the lineup (CF and DH). I think this lineup maybe rivals the Yankees if everyone stays healthy.
Well, they don’t get to play 162 games in neutral parks, so I don’t think their road numbers are all that relevant for projecting how they would perform in a 162 game season. We also didn’t see one serious injury to a meaningful position player this year, which isn’t likely to be repeated even if we retain the same roster.
I obviously like my suggested offense quite a bit, but it’s not the Yankees. They’re going to have Gary Sheffield hitting 7th in the playoffs. Their line-up is on a whole other level of incomprehendable goodness.
It’s nice Dave, but…
1. 3 role players for Manny and that $19M albatross of a contract? I just don’t know about that, especially with Soriano not having pitched again this year and Lowe having surgery, albeit minor.
2. I don’t see how Jim Edmonds is going to agree to a trade (he is 10/5 isn’t he?). And his PCS is a red flag for me.
3. I don’t understand your obsession with Redding. He’s always seemed like a very borderline fifth starter. Even with Baek’s not that much more than replacement performance, I don’t see Redding being much more than Franklin with more ground balls.
It seems, too, that you’re really changing the composition of this team with a lot of churn, when it seems like if you just made the first three moves you suggested this team would easily add 10 wins onto this year. And 88 wins… that’s in the mix for the playoffs through the final week.
Some great ideas, but I’m not sure I like the level of churn.
1. 3 role players for Manny and that $19M albatross of a contract? I just don’t know about that, especially with Soriano not having pitched again this year and Lowe having surgery, albeit minor.
If you think Ramirez’s $19 million, at .321/.439/.619, is an albatross, what must you think of Sexson’s $14 million for a .264/.338/.500 line?
Do you really think that Manny isn’t worth $5 million more than Sexson?
2. I don’t see how Jim Edmonds is going to agree to a trade (he is 10/5 isn’t he?). And his PCS is a red flag for me.
Bavasi and Edmonds have a relationship dating back to their days with the Angels. I don’t see the no-trade or the concussion as a big problem.
3. I don’t understand your obsession with Redding. He’s always seemed like a very borderline fifth starter. Even with Baek’s not that much more than replacement performance, I don’t see Redding being much more than Franklin with more ground balls.
His velocity returned to previous levels late in the year, and he was consistently being clocked at 94 MPH in August. He had a very good year in the International League, and he only got stronger as the season went on. In his last 6 starts of the year, he pitched 45 innings, gave up 27 hits, 9 runs, walked 6, and struck out 45, while running a GB/FB rate of 2 to 1.
He’s better than Cha Seung Baek, and he could be had for a simple one year guaranteed contract for the league minimum with incentives. He adds depth and gives the organization another arm to bring to spring training to compete with Baek, Lopez, and Guzman. There’s no downside to the move, and all kinds of potential rewards.
It seems, too, that you’re really changing the composition of this team with a lot of churn, when it seems like if you just made the first three moves you suggested this team would easily add 10 wins onto this year. And 88 wins… that’s in the mix for the playoffs through the final week.
The first three moves are re-sign Ichiro, sign Matsuzaka, and trade Sexson. You really think that essentially swapping Sexson for Matsuzaka, and hoping for improvement from the holdovers, is a 10 win upgrade? Because I can’t think of anyone that would agree with you.
All I’ve got to add is: Raul Ibanez, pickin’ machine!
I like it BECAUSE it’s bold.
In his post-game interview yesterday on KOMO, Bavasi talked of needing a third-place hitter; Ramirez is one of the best in the majors. I also like Cruz, Jr. and Valentin for the bench, although, if I recall, Valentin’s option was picked up by the Reds, so he would have to be obtained via trade. And, assuming Hargrove wants seven relievers, I would leave off Navarro and add one of the fifth starters a long reliever.
Otherwise, I would be very comfortable with this.
I know it’s bizarre, given that he’s asked for a trade, but…
Manny has 5/10 rights to veto any trade. His agent is very likely to demand that the club who trades for him guarantee one or both of his option years. This has the very important effect of generating extra income for the agent, who didn’t represent Manny when the contract was signed.
That 2/$38m deal is not so attractive in that case.
Are there any rules/regulations regarding how a team must negotiate with a Japaneese player after winning the bid to negotiate with him? It seems like the player would lose all his bargaining leverage, and wouldn’t be able to expect the same kind of deal he would get as a free agent.
Manny being Manny and all and getting the logistics of that worked out, what other potential big bats are realistically available for the Mariners?
WOW.
I like that lineup a /lot/.
The chances of anything this innovative HAPPENING are probably pretty slim, but I still love the thinking.
Valentin’s option was picked up by the Reds…
Well, I missed that one. I’ll find a new name to plug in, but this is a perfect example of why I said the names don’t matter as much as the ideas. Finding a backup catcher isn’t the hardest thing in the world.
Manny has 5/10 rights to veto any trade. His agent is very likely to demand that the club who trades for him guarantee one or both of his option years. This has the very important effect of generating extra income for the agent, who didn’t represent Manny when the contract was signed.
I don’t think this will be as big a problem as you think, but even still, I’d rather have a superstar like Ramirez signed to a 3 year, $58 million deal than a decent player like Sexson signed to a 2 year, $28 million deal.
Make it so, Number 1
It seems like the player would lose all his bargaining leverage, and wouldn’t be able to expect the same kind of deal he would get as a free agent.
His leverage in this case is that if he doesn’t like the deal he’s offered, he pitches in Japan one more year and then signs with NY as a free agent next year for a lot more money.
I’ve been entertained this weekend by the columnists weighing in across the country– amazing how many teams should just go get Matsuzaka, Zito & Schmidt and/or Willis, and then trade for Alex and/or Manny.
If Dave were any smarter, his head would explode.
Can I put this on my business card?
I have this sudden vision of Dave with a giant pulsating brain
Are there any rules/regulations regarding how a team must negotiate with a Japaneese player after winning the bid to negotiate with him? It seems like the player would lose all his bargaining leverage, and wouldn’t be able to expect the same kind of deal he would get as a free agent.
His leverage is going back to Seibu to pitch a final year, then becoming a free agent next year, when the Mariners would have to outbid the Yankees. That’s some serious leverage.
Manny being Manny and all and getting the logistics of that worked out, what other potential big bats are realistically available for the Mariners?
The list is really, really short. My list of potential Sexson-replacements basically boiled down to Ramirez, Helton, and Dunn, all of whom have their own special problems.
The chances of anything this innovative HAPPENING are probably pretty slim, but I still love the thinking.
It’s actually less likely that these moves happen than it is that I’m installed as the team’s CEO. There’s just no way the M’s do anything this radical.
If you think Ramirez’s $19 million, at .321/.439/.619, is an albatross, what must you think of Sexson’s $14 million for a .264/.338/.500 line?
Do you really think that Manny isn’t worth $5 million more than Sexson?
I think, with the left field wall as it is, that you run the risk of a double-whammy with Manny (pun unintentional) — an offensive decline combined with a lot of his office going to The Corner Where HRs Die. Now, admittedly, Manny isn’t the same sort of hitter as Sexson, and the BP projections all show him being productive for at least the next two years, but I’m afraid of another Beltre sort of long adjustment period with him. And $19M for a period of adjustment at 35? That could hurt.
Move in the LF wall, though, and now it’s more than reasonable. Hell, it’s a steal, if Lowe is healthy. (Still, I’d love to get some cash back in the deal.)
His velocity returned to previous levels late in the year, and he was consistently being clocked at 94 MPH in August. He had a very good year in the International League, and he only got stronger as the season went on. In his last 6 starts of the year, he pitched 45 innings, gave up 27 hits, 9 runs, walked 6, and struck out 45, while running a GB/FB rate of 2 to 1.
But he was doing this as a 28 year old, wasn’t he? Maybe his arm trouble explains his less-than-optimal seasons in Houston, but he just doesn’t seem like he’s that much of an improvement over Baek. He’s older and has 2-3 MPH on his fastball, but he’s never been able to successfully convert that into any lasting impact in the majors.
Yes, he’s better than Baek. But honestly, I’ve seen Redding pitch on TV, and he has never struck me as even a fifth starter. And yes, that’s subjective, YMMV, you’re a super-genius and my AL-only fantasy team barely finished in the upper division of a twelve-team league by the skin of its teeth.
The first three moves are re-sign Ichiro, sign Matsuzaka, and trade Sexson. You really think that essentially swapping Sexson for Matsuzaka, and hoping for improvement from the holdovers, is a 10 win upgrade? Because I can’t think of anyone that would agree with you.
The computer went haywire when I was typing it, and when I was re-doing it I left out “and the Manny deal” in there. Sorry about that.
Edmonds will [b]never[/b] agree to play left field, especially for a city {I believe) that he has stated he wants nothing to do with.
You’d have to modify, your plan and move Ichiro back to right and Doyle to left. I think the Cardinals are too smart to let Edmonds go after all time the he has spent in the city and the Hall of Fame production he has given them. They’ll be competitors next year, and they’ll need Edmonds to make a run. My guess is that they decline the option and work out an extension (like the M’s did with Edgar).
Other then, good ideas, good plan. Especially Valentin, and Manny. If Soriano isn’t going to start he has to go eventually, as the can only be One Closer. Why not get a guy like Manny in return? Boston has some re-tooling to do anyways.
I think, with the left field wall as it is, that you run the risk of a double-whammy with Manny (pun unintentional) — an offensive decline combined with a lot of his offense going to The Corner Where HRs Die.
To quote the Pixies, where is my mind?
I think, with the left field wall as it is, that you run the risk of a double-whammy with Manny (pun unintentional) — an offensive decline combined with a lot of his office going to The Corner Where HRs Die. Now, admittedly, Manny isn’t the same sort of hitter as Sexson, and the BP projections all show him being productive for at least the next two years, but I’m afraid of another Beltre sort of long adjustment period with him. And $19M for a period of adjustment at 35? That could hurt.
Ramirez is nothing like Beltre, honestly. Manny’s one of the greatest hitters of our generation, and he’s coming off an age 34 season where he was one of the ten best hitters in the game, with numbers that fit right in with the prime of his career. He has serious power to all fields. Unless your plan is to never acquire any kind of right-handed power hitter, I don’t see what your complaint is. It’s Ramirez instead of Sexson. To me, that’s an obvious upgrade, and well worth the extra money, plus the difference in players we give up to acquire Manny from the players we get back for Sexson.
But he was doing this as a 28 year old, wasn’t he? Maybe his arm trouble explains his less-than-optimal seasons in Houston, but he just doesn’t seem like he’s that much of an improvement over Baek. He’s older and has 2-3 MPH on his fastball, but he’s never been able to successfully convert that into any lasting impact in the majors.
Age for pitchers is pretty much irrelevant. Pitchers don’t develop anything like hitters. If you have major league stuff, you have major league stuff. Tim Redding has major league stuff.
And yes, judging him off his time in Houston isn’t really fair considering his injury problems. If you’re okay carrying Baek next year, and you admit that Redding is better, I’m not sure what your complaint here is either. I’m not giving Redding a 4 year contract. It’s about as low risk a free agent signing as you’ll ever find, and he’s perfectly capable of being an adequate fifth starter next year.
One thing I might change is finding a replacement for Soriano in the trade, and give him a shot for being in the rotation next year - failing that, providing a relief ace that Hargrove won’t ONLY use in save situations.
Idiot proofing the roster is fairly important if he’s going to be around in 2007.
I would also try and sign Randy Wolf to compete for the fourth spot in the rotation. I’ll admit that I’m ignorant on what he might possibly make next year though - It can’t be close to the $9 million he made in 2006 though, right?
One thing I might change is finding a replacement for Soriano in the trade, and give him a shot for being in the rotation next year - failing that, providing a relief ace that Hargrove won’t ONLY use in save situations.
You’re not getting Manny, or any other kind of star hitter, without giving up something of real value. A Reed/Cruceta package isn’t going to get you a whole lot.
I would also try and sign Randy Wolf to compete for the fourth spot in the rotation. I’ll admit that I’m ignorant on what he might possibly make next year though - It can’t be close to the $9 million he made in 2006 though, right?
There’s no point even bothering with those midlevel arms. They’re all going to be wildly overpaid. The middle tier of starting pitchers have become so wildly overpaid that it’s a giant waste of time to even go shopping in that neighborhood. Let them all sign with someone else for way too much money.
There’s no point even bothering with those midlevel arms. They’re all going to be wildly overpaid.
Because they’re overpaying for what are essentially security blankets, right?
Overpaying for elite arms is one thing…overpaying for journeymen arms is another. Better to go digging around and taking chances…particularly if you already have an elite arm like Felix (and if you have two like Matsuzaka….)
So what do the Mariners do if they don’t get Matsuzaka?
He will generate a lot of interest from other teams, not just the Yankees. If you believe some of the NY Media, they are already penciling Matsuzaka in as the ace of the Yankees’ staff for next year.
manny would never agree to becoming DH. he likes playing the OF and since he has the choice, he’ll continue to play the OF. (could we convert him to 1B, and leave ibanez in LF?)
oh, i should also say…i highly doubt the red sox would trade away manny ramirez- the face of their franchise, for only soriano, reed and cruceta. as you said yourself, reed and cruceta have no value themselves, and soriano isn’t nearly enough by himself, especially coming off injury.
the red sox can’t afford to lose manny, with no one in the organization coming close to replacing his bat. why trade manny and nab a carlos lee/alfonso soriano outside the organization when you already have manny within the organization??? and why should they, since he’s not even in his “asking for a trade” moods at the moment.
manny would never agree to becoming DH. he likes playing the OF and since he has the choice, he’ll continue to play the OF. (could we convert him to 1B, and leave ibanez in LF?)
Manny DH’d today, and he’d DH’d 249 games in his career coming into this season.
Manny was DH in 87 games in 2001 and 50 in 2002 (during which he broke his finger sliding into Dan Wilson and played only 127 games).
Given the state of his knee and hamstring, he’ll be glad to DH.
oh, i should also say…i highly doubt the red sox would trade away manny ramirez- the face of their franchise, for only soriano, reed and cruceta. as you said yourself, reed and cruceta have no value themselves, and soriano isn’t nearly enough by himself, especially coming off injury.
I didn’t say that, and it’s not true.
the red sox can’t afford to lose manny, with no one in the organization coming close to replacing his bat. why trade manny and nab a carlos lee/alfonso soriano outside the organization when you already have manny within the organization??? and why should they, since he’s not even in his “asking for a trade” moods at the moment.
He asked for a trade three weeks ago.
Also, capitalization makes reading comments a lot easier. It’s pretty easy to use the shift key.
You’re not getting Manny, or any other kind of star hitter, without giving up something of real value. A Reed/Cruceta package isn’t going to get you a whole lot.
Acknowledged. I don’t really pretend to know exactly what it would take, but I was suggesting some other piece - not just elminating part of your suggestion. Jones / Cruceta for Manny / $$$ or something to that effect perhaps? If you are locking up Ichiro for center, I assume you are looking at trading Jones eventually? (Or would you use him at a corner eventually? Move Ichiro back to right?)
Regarding Randy Wolf - he ~is~ coming off Tommy John surgery and didn’t really blow them away this year…but I do suppose it isn’t a great secret anymore that players coming back from TJ get better. He still could / should present some sort of value I’d think, but I could be wrong.
Dave,
Thanks for the post. Good stuff to think about. So if there’s less than a 10% chance that the team will trade Sexson to free up the cash necessary to make big changes, then in reality we must be looking at one attempt at a big move for pitching (Daisuke) combined with mid-level offensive changes like adding Cruz jr. to serve as the 4th outfielder and spell Snelling and Ibanez to DH?
Jones / Cruceta for Manny / $$$ or something to that effect perhaps? If you are locking up Ichiro for center, I assume you are looking at trading Jones eventually? (Or would you use him at a corner eventually? Move Ichiro back to right?)
You’d rather keep a reliever who we control for two more years than a 21-year-old with the potential to become an above average center fielder that we control for another six years? Really?
I have no interest in trading Adam Jones. This isn’t to say I wouldn’t trade him if I had to, but I see no reason to deal him just because Ichiro’s currently in center. He can spend 2007 in Tacoma refining his approach at the plate and his route running in the outfield, and when 2008 rolls around, I’m pretty sure we’ll have a spot for him. The organization isn’t exactly overflowing in outfielders as it is.
Regarding Randy Wolf - he ~is~ coming off Tommy John surgery and didn’t really blow them away this year…but I do suppose it isn’t a great secret anymore that players coming back from TJ get better. He still could / should present some sort of value I’d think, but I could be wrong.
At his best, pre-surgery, he was a flyball pitcher with average command and a problem with the home run ball. He really struggled throwing strikes this year, and he continued to give up home runs at a near record pace.
He’s a fourth starter, at best, even if he gets back to where he was pre-surgery. I’d argue that he’s not even better than Rodrigo Lopez, and I certainly don’t want to give him a multiyear, multimillion dollar deal.
oh, i should also say…i highly doubt the red sox would trade away manny ramirez- the face of their franchise, for only soriano, reed and crucet
Well, they were willing to let Manny walk for the price of a waiver claim (25K, I think) a couple years ago. Nobody took them up on it, because the contract was $Texas at the time. So I find it hard to believe they wouldn’t at least be willing to DISCUSS the trade, face of the franchise or not.
And Dave, my point is that I think the Mariner offense has room for growth beyond this year’s 750 runs, if you brought back all the same folks. Yeah, they were all healthy- but we REALLY got crappy production out of 22% of the lineup and the bench, and it was STILL a league-average offense- and you just replaced two replacement-level players (CF and DH) with Jim Edmonds (by swapping Ichiro into CF and pushing Edmonds to LF) and Manny Ramirez (by turning Ibanez into our 1B subbing for Sexson). Lopez, Doyle, Betancourt, Reed and Jones all STILL have room for growth as a group, even if the rest of the lineup is peaking or possibly about to slide back some.
All told, I still think that offense is pretty damn elite. The Yankees are better…but the Yankees ALSO only have one player worth a damn under 30 (Cano).
Thanks for the post. Good stuff to think about. So if there’s less than a 10% chance that the team will trade Sexson to free up the cash necessary to make big changes, then in reality we must be looking at one attempt at a big move for pitching (Daisuke) combined with mid-level offensive changes like adding Cruz jr. to serve as the 4th outfielder and spell Snelling and Ibanez to DH?
I’ll do a post in a few weeks on what I think the M’s will actually do. Right now, my guess is they make a run at Matsuzaka, trade Broussard, sign a midlevel backend starter, and pickup a veteran outfielder. But that’s all wild speculation, because they don’t even know what they’re going to do yet.
What about an all-glove, little-hit first-baseman so you have a ‘true’ one on the roster for late-inning duties, someone like Doug Mienke…? (I don’t really want to look his name up.)
All told, I still think that offense is pretty damn elite. The Yankees are better…but the Yankees ALSO only have one player worth a damn under 30 (Cano).
Yea, well, that was the goal. In case it hasn’t been obvious for the past few years, I believe that the best way to build a roster is around hitters, spending 65-70% of your payroll on position players. I like my suggested offense a lot too.
#37: You can’t afford that luxury with a 99 man bullpen that Hargrove needs.
What about an all-glove, little-hit first-baseman so you have a ‘true’ one on the roster for late-inning duties, someone like Doug Mienke…? (I don’t really want to look his name up.)
Morse could probably be something like that guy with an offseason of hard work and a lot of practice. He was badly miscast as a shortstop, but he’s more athletic than most first baseman. He won’t be as good as Mientkiwicz, but as a defensive replacement off the bench, the difference between the two is probably 2-3 runs, tops, over the course of a season. Morse is already here and makes the league minimum, and he’s a decade younger.
Here’s the question… last year everybody was pushing for the M’s to go out and get either Burnett or Millwood. Neither happened (thankfully…) and we ended up with Washburn.
What does GM Dave do if the M’s put up a posting fee of 25 million, the Yankees swoop in and pay more, and Matsuzaka becomes a Yankee?
Dave, Over the course of a season, how many defensive runs is an elite defensive first baseman worth when you compare him to a Sexson (who I know is gone in your scenario)?
How many defensive runs is he worth when he plays only in high-leverage late innings situations?
Also, Ortiz is the new face of the Sox, not Manny.
Just a hunch, somewhat related. I feel this is the offseason that the BoSox finally do deal Manny. Everything went wrong in those last few months and it truly is time to re-tool in Boston.
What does GM Dave do if the M’s put up a posting fee of 25 million, the Yankees swoop in and pay more, and Matsuzaka becomes a Yankee?
Cry.
Then, explore the trade market even further. I’m just not interested in this crop of free agent pitchers. As a group, they suck, and they’re going to be paid like they’re actually good.
Dave, Over the course of a season, how many defensive runs is an elite defensive first baseman worth when you compare him to a Sexson (who I know is gone in your scenario)?
If both are full time starters, probably 15-20 runs. Sexson’s not very good with the glove, and guys like Teixeira are generally 10-15 runs above average.
How many defensive runs is he worth when he plays only in high-leverage late innings situations?
A couple, probably. Not many.
Dave,
Do you think the M’s will be falling over themselves to sign Schmidt, as many of the announcers have hinted?
How many years would the M’s get out of Schmidt, and how disasterous would the contract be?
Dave,
What do you think of Greg Zaun as a back-up for next season? I’m pretty sure he is a FA. He is still a decent bat (100X better than Rivera) and is well respected for his defense (at least that is what i’ve heard).
Do you think the M’s will be falling over themselves to sign Schmidt, as many of the announcers have hinted?
I don’t know. They don’t know. It’s too early to know what the team will try and do.
How many years would the M’s get out of Schmidt, and how disasterous would the contract be?
In this market, he’s going to get something like 4/48 or 5/60. And, since pitchers are notoriously fickle, it’s impossible to say for sure how he’ll perform, but I will say this; if you sign 10 Jason Schmidt’s to that contract, 8 of them will be a budget-killing bust. It’s a bad bet.
What do you think of Greg Zaun as a back-up for next season? I’m pretty sure he is a FA. He is still a decent bat (100X better than Rivera) and is well respected for his defense (at least that is what i’ve heard).
Too expensive, wants to start.
Which starters would you target in the trade market if the M’s miss on Matsuzaka?
Kind of a small issue, but I think I would rather have Green than Fruto. Fruto seems to have the better stuff, but his control has not been very good. Now Green certianly hasn’t been a control freak, but he is groundball pitcher will better control.
I think Green is a bit more polished and better suited for the bigs. Just my opinion.
sorry, but just NO none of that is going to happen
(Okay…after an hour and a half…)
Great job, Dave.
1) Get rid of Bloomquist. If he’s here, Grover will find a way to get his bat in the line-up more than once a week.
2) I don’t understand everyone’s reluctance with Ramirez. He is ridiculously underrated. If he had Derek Jeter’s smile and charm, he’d be seen for what he is: one of the elite hitters of all time. He is so much better than Ortiz (who is, by the way, the actual face of the franchise) that it makes me sick to hear the constant blinded comparisons. Whose OPS is higher every year? Who protects who in the batting order? Who has dominated for a decade?
But no, it’s always “Manny can’t field”. “Manny isn’t as clutch.” Tell me, nay-sayers, if Manny is as bad in the field as it seems (and he probably is), how much worse much Ortiz be out there? Yet fielding is somehow a strike against him? And does anyone care that Manny hits for a better average with runners on? If people were concerned about his health, I’d understand - that’s a legitimate concern. But when healthy, there isn’t a better right hander in the American League not named Rodriguez.
Anyway, ManRam should be a monster for two or three more years if he can get healthy. And anyone who claims “his kind of power” will be nullified by Safeco, perhaps you need a lesson on bat speed and ball flight. His dingers don’t barely clear fences. He’s got Sexson’s power with a ridiculously better eye. And he’s obtainable, simply because he isn’t a fan favorite (again, with Jeter’s smile and charm, he’d be the Boston version of Ibanez). I’ll take his next three years of production over Sexson’s for for five million a season.
3) Keep Broussard. It wouldn’t be prudent to unload him after his stock has droppped over the past few months.
Yes, it is bold. Perhaps too bold. I realize this is still Dave’s World, despite the disclaimer that these trades are at least probable. The problem I have is the admitted probability. Sexson to the Giants is less then a 10% chance of occurring; whether that is due to the Mariners FO or the Giants is relevant. One of the best ways to propose a plan is to find your own holes in it. Sometimes we write things down then take a step back and look and say “oh this will just not fucking happen.”
I guess my point is, I’d like to hear your holes in the deal. The Sexson part was already explained, with a slim chance of even happening.
Now some superficial criticisms / praises.
Ichiro getting extension: Necessary and appropriate. Keep him happy. Keep him from having to think about where he’s going to play in 2008. Keep the core of the team in tact. Don’t risk losing one of the, now, best CF’ers in the game.
Getting Matsuzaka anyway possible: Should be, in the words of The Master Control Program - “Priority One”.
Trading away Sexson: I agree with this, as I, and many others, did in the previous discussion thread about “who to trade”. Perhaps a Plan B is in order, tho. The most reasonable target teams seem to be the Giants and Orioles. The Giants are more likely to take on most / all of Sexson’s contract. But with the recent steroid allegations against two prominant Orioles players, perhaps Baltimore will also be more willing to talk about picking up a big MOTO bat. Baltimore is not shy about putting forth moolah, especially since they play in the division where you pay to play and make a lot of money doing it anyhow. Boston is another idea. Their first base situation is odd right now, and it might be better to trade Sexson + Soriano for Ramirez straight up, trading contracts, etc. The trading of the contracts would be almost a wash with what Soriano would probably get in arbitration, and get a very productive bat for exactly the reasons you laid out about Lee and Soriano. It should be expected that the Sox are going to want to add offense to counter “that lineup” of the Yankees.
Still, this is the right idea, as you said, even if the names / places are negotiable.
Ben Broussard and Julio Mateo traded: Somehow this seem like a weak idea. I don’t know what value Baltimore has on Jim Johnson, but Broussard is a pretty good fit for that lineup and that park and could play first base, platooning with one of their lefty mashers. It’s Julio Mateo I wonder about. Broussard’s value should be obvious, but Mateo has none. Why not just release him and give up one of our “maybe” minor leaguers? Andrew Barb?
Trading for Manny: This makes more sense then people realize. Ramirez is in that “class” of hitters that doesn’t seem to be having a problem aging gracefully. He’s almost a certified HOFer offensive weapon we haven’t had since Alex Rodriguez left. Furthurmore, I haven’t heard anything about his relationship with Hargrove being bad, since they were both Indians back when Cleveland was last successful. Francona seems to rub Ramirez the wrong way, or perhaps it’s just Boston in general. I think Manny wants to be Manny elsewhere, but would that spacious SafeCo Field be able to entice him? Would a comradery with a former manager be enough? I’m sure Boston would take the deal, the question is more Manny’s whims.
Trading for Edmonds: I personally think it’s giving up too much for an aging veteran who, if his option is picked up before the trade, would cost quite a bit. I like Jim Edmonds, and his relationship with Bavasi precusors his comments about wanting to play in Seattle. Wlad The Destroyer has sort of lost favor with a lot of people, and we have about 5 guys down in A ball just like him (Halman, Dotel, Pagueno, Liddi, etc), so he’s very expendable and should be dangled as trade bait. Removes a man from the 40-man roster, too, which helps. Justin Thomas may not amount to much, but with our farm system chock full of “potential” arms, Thomas is expendable too. Again, I like the idea of dangling out middle class prospects for a potential immediate help, just not sure about getting someone as age’d as Edmonds. I have no real alternative, tho.
Trade for Angel Guzman: Getting rid of Woods alone would make us doing this trade worth it. Getting something back of interesting value is gravy. I know you’re sour on Mike Wilson, but we can always dangle him out there later if he doesn’t overcome the higher level of play @ Tacoma.
Roster construction fillers / utility guys / 5th men: I’m not a Rodrigo Lopez fan, but as a 4th / 5th man, meh. It’s innings eating. I’m curious to get Cruz back in Seattle again. I didn’t want to lose him in the first place.
Raul to 1st: Until you’d said that, I hadn’t even noticed that we had no first basemen. Raul HAS played first before, and the idea was he, Sexson, and Carlos Delgado would rotate around DH’ing and playing 1st base, with Ibanez spelling LF at times. Of course, Delgado didn’t happen, and Ibanez hasn’t played a hole lot at first base since. But he has been trained for it. A little more seasoning and this would work fine. It keeps Ibanez happy playing the field, and you get someone who can man the bag.
Since this isn’t a Rosterbation thread (or is it?) I wont throw out my ideas, just that I like the ideas, not so much the names. I do think it’s a good plan and would love to see it in full effect. But, like many plans, if it doesn’t ALL get done, it looks a lot worse. Do you have some alternatives, “just in case”, Dave?
I see Doyle is now going by his last name, but I wonder where the real Doyle has gone. He hit well in past years, but this year he didn’t do that well in Seattle, and he hit even less well in Tacoma. Its hard to dismiss his stats as a small sample because when you put the number of ABs together from Tacoma and Seattle the sample is not that small. I agree his performanace from earlier years and his low salary suggest he’s still a good bet to contribute much more value than his cost, but do you have any worries based upon what we saw from him this year, or theories about his disappointing numbers? You didn’t really comment on what you might expect from him…
Dave,
Interesting ideas.
One question. Don’t you think that the return for Sexson seems very low? I would expect that some other team would be willing to beat that package to get Sexson, especially since there are really only two power hitters on the free agent market this year (Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano). San Francisco is an option, but they don’t seem like a terribly good match for the M’s. Detroit is supposed to be looking for help at 1B. The Orioles are looking to make a splash this offseason, and have nobody at 1B. I have heard about how the Red Sox may be looking for a power hitter at 1B so they can move Youkilis back to 3B. The Astros could use a lot of help at offense, and Berkman can move to one of the OF corners. The Pirates may be looking to add payroll and they definitely need help on offense. And, if the M’s want to do something bold, they could always talk to the Angels, who have publically vowed to do something bold.
Really, any of those clubs seem like a better match than the Giants.
If the M’s were willing to eat a bit of Sexson’s contract to even up the $$$/years, basically to un-backload the contract, it would make him even more tradable. If it means getting back a player on a minimum contract who could actually contribute immediately, it would be worth eating $2 mil/year for two years. Consider it a signing bonus to acquire a major leauge ready prospect.
Schierholtz and Martinez-Esteve seem like too little. Schierholtz is B- prospect at best. Martinez-Esteve is a good hitter who has zero defensive value and serious problems staying on the field. I have also read that he has notable problems staying in shape and attitude issues.
Hell, if the objective of moving Sexson is to essentially replace him with Ramirez, why not just see if Boston would be interested in him? Sexson, Soriano and Reed for Ramirez. I think that is actually a better trade for the Red Sox. They get a guy who can close (and the ability to move Papelbon to the rotation), a starting CFer, a guy at 1B with power, Youkilis at his natural position, and some money left over.
I think Manny Ramirez is just what this franchise needs to become one of the upper-echelon teams in the league. As much value David Ortiz is to the Red Sox franchise, Ramirez is the straw that stirs the drink over there (like you said, Hooligan), and would do the same here. And I think Mike Hargrove has a little experience with utilizing this guy, too.
Setting aside the statistical superiority of Ramirez over someone like Richie Sexson, Manny would be the focal point of our offense. He never really slumps, and can certainly lead by his example, especially when the rest of our team can’t buy a hit. All that FAR outweighs all that “Manny being Manny” crap. This is a great idea by Dave, because we lose players in the trade that have already been replaced within the orginization anyway, and a good chunk of Ramirez’s salary (Sexson) would have been dealt away. This is a no-brainer.
ave, on last question: Is Mike Morse salvagable as being a full-time third baseman? I know he can’t hit that well, and he’d never push Beltre out of town, but with all the time he’s logged in the outfield, I wonder if the former shortstop (with a great arm) has truly gotten a chance at the corner? If he already has failed down in Tacoma there, then never mind.
Well, Dave’s plan states that the ideas are more important then the names. So we’re mixing nuts here. Yes, trading Sexson makes a TON of sense in helping the Mariners this offseason. Where, for who, etc, are irrelevant. Getting him out there and getting something back for him is key, even if what we get back is simply not having 28 million to cover over the next two years.
“Yes, trading Sexson makes a TON of sense in helping the Mariners this offseason. Where, for who, etc, are irrelevant. Getting him out there and getting something back for him is key, even if what we get back is simply not having 28 million to cover over the next two years.”
I really disagree with this. The M’s offense is a weakness right now. Selling off Sexson just to move his payroll is taking a step backward. If the M’s move Sexson in order to clear payroll for another big move (like Ramirez) that is one thing. But right now, he is one of the biggest contributors to our offense. You can’t just remove him without it being a part of a good plan. Since the free agent market is so weak, the M’s are going to have to be creative if they do move him.
To me, that Manny deal is a steal, and I’d do it from the M’s perspective in a heartbeat. Of course, I’m big on the talent pyramid and think that it’s worthwhile to fork over lots of money to guys at the top.
Also, with a second true CF on the roster (Edmonds), I think it’s unlikely we’d see much of Bloomquist in CF, so that would be good.
In all, I really like the thought behind the moves–spend more money on hitters, as they are more predictable, stick with the cheap, homegrown bullpen, take some fliers on the back-end of the rotation, and improve the OF defense.
One question: Can you think of any starters who might contribute that you could bring in as a NRI?
This is a fantastic plan, but roster-building through trades in advance is really tricky stuff. I don’t think you’d be able to get both Edmonds -and- Ramirez (perhaps that’s a random shot of pessimism rather than being completely rational, though).
So out of those two impact bats, who would you rather have on the team? I think Edmonds. I’m not really concerned about his reported desire or lack thereof, he won’t cause a positional reshuffling, and every time I see his swing, it makes me drool for its possibilities in Safeco (Adam Dunn does, too). If, for example, you kept Sexson and didn’t get Manny, how would you feel about the M’s chances?
Although I think these could be good moves (some of them obviously would be), I don’t really like the end roster construction. I know you’re smarter than me but these are my feelings about it:
1 - I think you’re underestimating the frailness of your players. There’s no way Snelling, Edmonds, and Manny all play near-full seasons, and I think there’s a good chance all three of them will be out a melon-sized chunk of the season next year. Other normally healthy players will surely have random injuries next year as well.
2 - When any of these guys go down, Willie Bloomquist (or worse) is likely to fill in quite a bit.
3 - I can’t agree with trading Soriano for more than a replacement of Sexson with Manny (for $5mil more). This is assuming Soriano is likely to get his audition to start games. Even the 2002 22yo version of Soriano starting games (8 GS) will likely be better than at least one of your starters, and his upside is much much sweeter.
Since the free agent market is so weak, the M’s are going to have to be creative if they do move [Sexson].
Even if the Mariners can’t land Manny, just getting Edmonds would likely replace Sexson’s production. Just this year, Sexson’s EQA was .287 and Edmonds’ EQA was .284 (and EQA is park-adjusted). So Sexson/Ibanez was about the same offensive tandem in ‘06 as Ibanez/Edmonds, and Ibanez/Edmonds is a big upgrade on defense, plus Edmonds is a better fit for the park.
Richie’s 22.0 VORP was 16th amongst MLB 1st basemen. His offensive contributions shouldn’t be that difficult to replace if you are even mildly creative.
I have a feeling that Sabean won’t part with Esteves. He’s been touted pretty highly in the organization and apparently has been tearing the cover off the ball during the last part of the season.
I posted a thread a week or so ago on PI about sending Sexson to SF straight up for Jonathan Sanchez. Any thoughts?
Yes, it is bold. Perhaps too bold. I realize this is still Dave’s World, despite the disclaimer that these trades are at least probable. The problem I have is the admitted probability. Sexson to the Giants is less then a 10% chance of occurring; whether that is due to the Mariners FO or the Giants is relevant.
If I did what you’re suggesting, it would be “Dave’s Plan While Adjusting For Organizational Biases, So It’s Not Really Dave’s Plan.”
The fact that the M’s are unlikely to have the stones to trade Sexson shouldn’t mean that I, therefore, should not suggest trading him as a viable strategy. The organizational fear of letting someone go and having them succeed elsewhere isn’t something that I’m particularly worried about, and as such, I’d make a lot of different moves than the M’s would.
I see Doyle is now going by his last name, but I wonder where the real Doyle has gone.
There’s zero reason to worry about his offensive abilities. If he’s healthy, he’ll hit .300/.380/.470 until he retires.
One question. Don’t you think that the return for Sexson seems very low?
No. I think you probably overvalue Sexson, relative to major league GMs.
If the M’s were willing to eat a bit of Sexson’s contract to even up the $$$/years, basically to un-backload the contract, it would make him even more tradable.
And it would make this roster impossible, considering I’m right up against the budget ceiling, and I had to get the Cardinals to kick in $2 million just to be able to afford Jim Edmonds. And I’m counting on Matsuzaka signing a deal that is below what most people expect him to get, and Boras to agree to structure it in a way that doesn’t pay him huge money in 2007.
Unless the Mariners approve a payroll increase, money isn’t something the M’s have a lot of to be throwing around. You can argue all you want that the M’s payroll should be higher, and I’ll agree with you, but for this purpose, it’s all irrelevant.
Sexson, Soriano and Reed for Ramirez. I think that is actually a better trade for the Red Sox. They get a guy who can close (and the ability to move Papelbon to the rotation), a starting CFer, a guy at 1B with power, Youkilis at his natural position, and some money left over.
They have Mike Lowell at third, so moving Youkilis back necessitates that Lowell sits, which isn’t likely. And they have Eric Hinske under contract for next year, and honestly, he’s about as good as Sexson is, and making 1/3 of the money.
Dave, on last question: Is Mike Morse salvagable as being a full-time third baseman?
I don’t think he’s salvagable as a full-time anything. He’s a role player, a mediocre reserve, who has enough bat to stick in the majors as a backup but not enough of anything to play regularly for a major league club.
The M’s offense is a weakness right now.
The offense is better than the rotation.
Selling off Sexson just to move his payroll is taking a step backward. If the M’s move Sexson in order to clear payroll for another big move (like Ramirez) that is one thing.
No one is advocating dumping him to make sure the Mariners ownership gets a larger bonus next year. The whole point of dumping Sexson is to clear room for another acquisition. I’m pretty sure everyone agrees on that, and we’ve all been quite clear about that.
So out of those two impact bats, who would you rather have on the team?
Manny. Edmonds is a nice fit for a lot of reasons, but he’s not going to give you so much more than Broussard will that it takes the offense to another level. Ramirez is the kind of guy who changes the whole shape of this offense. The M’s don’t have anyone that teams need to pitch around, and Ramirez would be that guy.
#45: How many defensive runs is he worth when he plays only in high-leverage late innings situations?
A couple, probably. Not many
So, why should the M’s waste time on that experiment with Morse and (if he succeeds) burn a roster spot for such a marginal improvement?
Mientkiewicz did not clog up the Red Sox roster for all of 2004; he came in at the trade deadline.
The bad thing about Edmonds and Manny is while your adding a bit of walks (Edmonds) your also getting a bunch more strikeouts with both of them. And I don’t know if this has been mentioned but Edmonds is 36 not 38 Dave.
I think you’re underestimating the frailness of your players.
Considering I wrote in the post that it was the major weakness of this roster, I doubt it. I probably just value ironmen less than you do. You can win a pennant with great players who miss 20 to 30 games a year. It’s hard to win a pennant with mediocre players who never take a day off.
When any of these guys go down, Willie Bloomquist (or worse) is likely to fill in quite a bit.
Not necessarily. Jose Cruz Jr is the fourth outfielder, so he plays if Edmonds or Snelling get hurt. In this scenario, Adam Jones is still in the organization, sitting in Tacoma, so he’s an option as well.
With Raul at first base, he’s also an option to move back to the outfield if one of the OFs get hurt, and it’s always a piece of cake to find a first baseman during the season. If Snelling gets hurt again (knock on wood) for an extended period of time, and Cruz Jr is sucking eggs, and Adam Jones still hasn’t figured out how to hit a curveball, it’d take about 10 minutes to go trade for Sean Casey or someone of that ilk and stick Ibanez back in the outfield.
The roster has options. It doesn’t have to be all Willie, all the time.
I can’t agree with trading Soriano for more than a replacement of Sexson with Manny (for $5mil more). This is assuming Soriano is likely to get his audition to start games. Even the 2002 22yo version of Soriano starting games (8 GS) will likely be better than at least one of your starters, and his upside is much much sweeter
2002 Rafael Soriano, as a starter: 3.04 BB/9, 6.08 K/9, 0.58 GB/FB, 5.06 FIP.
2006 Rodrigo Lopez: 2.81 BB/9, 6.48 K/9, 1.21 GB/FB, 4.96 FIP
So your last comment is factually untrue. And as much as I support the Soriano to the rotation movement, I think people overestimate how good he’ll be as a starter. The velocity drop is going to take a pretty big bite out of his K rate, which is his big weapon. As a starter, Soriano’s probably a 4.30 to 4.60 ERA guy. A solid mid to back end guy, kind of our version of Ervin Santana.
But we only have him for two more years, and if he’s as good as you hope in the rotation next year, he’s going to be awfully expensive in 2008. His days as any kind of bargain are over.
I have a feeling that Sabean won’t part with Esteves. He’s been touted pretty highly in the organization and apparently has been tearing the cover off the ball during the last part of the season.
He’s a terrible, terrible defensive outfielder. There’s a reason I listed him as a DH in the post. He needs to move to the AL. And, the last game he played this season was May 06, due to injury, so no, he hasn’t been tearing the cover off the ball lately.
I posted a thread a week or so ago on PI about sending Sexson to SF straight up for Jonathan Sanchez. Any thoughts?
The Giants wouldn’t make that trade.
#54: Furthurmore, I haven’t heard anything about his relationship with Hargrove being bad, since they were both Indians back when Cleveland was last successful.
We heard last offseason that Manny’s agent told the Red Sox he would accept a trade to Seattle precisely because he’d like to play for Hargrove again.
(One of the USSM authors wrote a piece suggesting that since Bavasi was looking for LH sock, Manny should offer to bat left handed for Seattle.)
Bypassing the pie-in-the-sky notion that the Front Office is willing to make more than ONE big move (and I know were having fun here), I see problems with both the propositions that I feel most snootily knowledgable about, Ichiro and Daisuke.
I really do wonder whether the Lions will offer up Matsuzaka this year, please remember that they do not have to, and that “smart” in Japan, like Lake Wobegon, don’t count for that much. Also, $25 million only gves us a decent shot, no more.
The other point is that the sugnals I pick up from Ichiro when he talks about the team is that he will not resign with a loser, which absolutely means he will never sign for a Hargrove-led club.
An enjoyable read, though.
Great ideas, Dave. As you’ve concurred, such moves are unlikely, but that’s a pretty good, creative reconstruction of the roster.
My grain of salt concerns (and even concerns is a strong word): I wonder if the Bosox would want more for Manny than what you offered, maybe another ML quality piece. What’s offered is a lot, but even with Boston wanting to dump that contract, they may want more than (keep in mind these are perceptions and of course could be inaccurate) a future closer coming off a bad shot to the head, a young, incomplete CF (when they already have one) and a AAAA strikeout pitcher with spotty command.
Also, Fruto over Woods? Woods isn’t great and his command is off and on, but as a swingman who has starting experience and has shown he can be more capable in stretches than Fruto, who has even spottier command and faulty mechanics to match, one would think Fruto would make the bigger risk.
So, why should the M’s waste time on that experiment with Morse and (if he succeeds) burn a roster spot for such a marginal improvement?
Because you have to a backup first baseman on the roster, and the organization isn’t exactly flowing with options.
Dave - What kind of package would the M’s have to put together to land Adam Dunn? Would the Reds even consider trading him?
I wonder if the Bosox would want more for Manny than what you offered, maybe another ML quality piece.
I don’t think they’ll get a better offer than this, so if they have any desire to “retool”, like everyone in Boston is talking about, than this would probably be their best option. Look at what Philly got for Abreu. This is twenty times better than that.
Also, Fruto over Woods?
Woods was traded to Chicago in the Angel Guzman deal. But yes, even if he was still here, Fruto over Woods. Jake Woods sucks.
A nice plan; were that it came from Bavasi’s mouth. I wish that they’d do half of this.
I agree with the suggrestion of trying to get Manny for Sexson, adding in Soriano or anyone else who fits the expendable description. Then, we only have to pull off one big trade, not two.
I do have a twinge of fear about Manny being injured and/or a disruption as a head case. But the guy can be described in two words that I haven’t heard said of a Mariner other than Edgar: professional hitter.
Dave - What kind of package would the M’s have to put together to land Adam Dunn? Would the Reds even consider trading him?
A big one, but yes, he’ll be available this offseason. The problem with Dunn is threefold:
1. He’s a free agent at years end and already has very old player skills. If you don’t give him an extension as part of the trade, then you risk giving up the farm for a one year rental, but he’s not exactly the kind of guy you want to be committing to long term, either.
2. His defense sucks. At every position. He’s one of the worst outfielders in baseball. He’s one of the worst first baseman in baseball. He’s just terrible defensively.
3. If you don’t trade Sexson and bring in Dunn, the casual fans will kill themselves over all the strikeouts. I know that strikeouts aren’t as bad as most fans think, but I don’t think I really want those two hitting back-to-back in the order.
Because you have to a backup first baseman on the roster, and the organization isn’t exactly flowing with options.
So Morse is basically a warm body, and you’d flush him once he became arb-eligible?
If I did what you’re suggesting, it would be “Dave’s Plan While Adjusting For Organizational Biases, So It’s Not Really Dave’s Plan.”
That came out wrong. What I meant was that you were making a statement that the Mariners FO moving Sexson is a low probability. I was wondering what your own low probabilities were and if you had contingency plans for them. Again, I know this is Dave’s World, but it’s the probabilities that the other clubs would accept your offers I was more interested in then “if you were the Mariners FO, complete with lack of spine.”
The fact that the M’s are unlikely to have the stones to trade Sexson shouldn’t mean that I, therefore, should not suggest trading him as a viable strategy. The organizational fear of letting someone go and having them succeed elsewhere isn’t something that I’m particularly worried about, and as such, I’d make a lot of different moves than the M’s would.
Actually, I think it’s better to stay within the whims of the organizations FO. I mean, “if you were the GM” is all well and good, but the GM has some limitations. Obviously you paid attention to those with situations like Ichiro, not trading Ibanez, etc, but did you take everything Mariners FO related into account with this plan? I’m just curious as to how well you’ve thought this out and to what limits and levels, or would you have to do some schmoozing to get some stuff done.
Another part of what I was asking was contingency plans. Last offseason Bill talked about “things not falling into place which impacted other moves” and “not wanting to blow holes in one thing to fill a hole in another” (at the time referring to trading away bullpen arms for whatever). Bill didn’t seem to have a lot of 2nd and 3rd moves which would still allow him to make a majority of his plan possible.
I do know that, based on past posts I’ve read, you will throw out a post that is “What I would do and what the M’s FO WILL do” and probably another one about who the M’s targets are, but I’m more curious about yours, since this is your plan.
I’d flush him right now.
The M’s offense is a weakness right now.
Apparently this isn’t sinking in, so let me restate this: the Mariners had an average offense in the AL on the road (6th in runs scored, 7th in OPS).
The reason you think the M’s offense sucks is because Safeco depresses run scoring so much that it’s ridiculous (most teams GAIN offense athom, the M’s lost over 10% of theirs), but really, They. Were. OK.
That’s with the M’s having the worst CF and DH in the league. That means that the other 78% of the team had to collectively be nicely ABOVE average to make the team average. We just moved a Hall of Fame-caliber player into CF, so one of those problems is fixed, and Dave just replaced the other problem with the best hitter on the planet not named Pujols or Rodriguez. Oh, and he added Jim Edmonds, to boot.
My guess is in a neutral park, and staying healthy, Dave’s lineup scores over 850 runs without breaking much of a sweat, and if the right things happen (Doyle and Lopez bust out), goes over 900. The CURRENT 2006 lineup (bad DH/CF) prorates to a touch over 800 runs with their road performance, and with anyone halfway competent in those two spots it would be at 820-830.
The rotation, OTOH… well, the M’s gave up 420 runs in 81 road games. You aren’t winning a pennant with a pitching staff that gives up 5.2 runs a game in neutral parks, unless you’re going to score a thousand runs (the Pythag winning percentage for a split of 1000 runs scored to 840 runs allowed is about .586, working out to 95 games). Our pitching was dead last in the division in road games (even accounting for the fact that the other AL West teams get games at Safeco that we don’t).
So, to sum up: offense- not a real weakness or strength yet, but rather easily fixed to be a strength. Pitching, big weakness. Safeco obscures that and makes you think the pitching’s better than it is and the offense is worse than it is.
Dave is kind of playing both sides of the coin here- seriously amping up the offense into overdrive because you can get offense cheaper right now than paying eleventy billion dollars to Ted Lilly and Barry Zito, adding a touch of defense, importing Matsuzaka and hoping Felix goes from being a 4.50 ERA pitcher to a 3.50 ERA pitcher to improve the top of the rotation, and using cheap decent options on the backend. If it worked out like I think it might, you’d get a club that was more offense-oriented (like the 90’s Mariners or Indians, or the 02-05 Cardinals), but good enough to win 90-95.
So Morse is basically a warm body, and you’d flush him once he became arb-eligible?
Yep.
Again, I know this is Dave’s World, but it’s the probabilities that the other clubs would accept your offers I was more interested in…
Guzman deal: 90%
Sexson deal: 80%
Broussard deal: 75%
Ramirez deal: 60%
Edmonds deal: 50%
I’m just curious as to how well you’ve thought this out and to what limits and levels, or would you have to do some schmoozing to get some stuff done.
I’ve been working on this post for about a month. I wrote it last week. I’ve talked to probably 30 people about it, running ideas past people and getting input from folks with differing viewpoints. So, I’d say I’ve thought it out pretty well.
Another part of what I was asking was contingency plans.
I basically built four different offseason plans, and decided this is the one I liked the most, so this is the one I put up. But I have an offseason plan that includes trading Ichiro and almost rebuilding the offense completely, another one that has Adam Dunn as the main offensive acquisition, and one that has Todd Helton as the big bat trade target. The plan that I posted, though, is my favorite, so that’s the one I decided to run on the site.
Again, Dave, good stuff, and thanks.
Re 80:
I’m satisfied. That’s pretty much the answers I was looking for. Except one:
Is this a rosterbation thread or not? Because I can practically feel AK1984’s “hot stove” burning, if you catch my drift, and it’s a constructgasm I am not sure I want to be near.
flush [Morse] once he became arb-eligible?
Who have we non-tendered lately? Raul, but that was six years ago. Charles Gipson was four years ago. Lately we seem to offer multiyear contracts to replacement level players instead (I’m thinking of Bloomquist and Mateo).
I think flushing replacement-level players when they got to arb eligibility was something Gillick did better than Bavasi.
Is this a rosterbation thread or not?
Kind of. I’m still going to delete AK’s ridiculous 842 line posts that take up 90% of the page where he fills out the entire 40 man roster and a couple of minor league levels just to boot, but if someone wants to say “don’t trade for Manny, trade for Dunn, and here’s why”, that’s fine.
This thread is for the discussion of offseason ideas. Within reason, though.
Dave,
You totally misunderstood nearly everything I said.
I regards to moving Sexson just to move him, I was responding to a comment (#58) that said that getting the money off the payroll would be sufficient in and of itself. My point was, you have to have a pretty damn good plan to use that money, becasue (in my opinion) there aren’t any impact bats available in free agency this year that would be good signings. Nobody was insinuating that the money would just be cut from the budget.
The problem with a salary dump to free up money is that you have to know how you are going to spend that money. Part of the problem with your plan is that it would necessitate coordinating several moves at once: if you trade Sexson for two middling prospects, and can’t pull of the Ramirez deal, you are SOL. You have to replace that offense, and, hopefully, add more. If one thing falls through, you end up in a bidding war with Baltimore for Alfonso Soriano.
Second, when I suggested including money with Sexson to improve the package, I was not assuming making every other move that you suggested. If you are getting a player back who actually goes onto the 25-man roster, then you essentially eliminate one of your expenditures (say…Rodrigo Lopez). For instance, trade Sexson and cash to Detriot for Humberto Sanchez and two other lower-level prospects. Sanchez is the M’s 4th starter. Or trade him for a guy with ML experience. To Baltimore for Daniel Cabrera. If all you can get for him is Nate Schierholtz and Eddy Martinez-Esteve, then keep him. But I don’t think that will be the case.
Third, just because the rotation is a bigger mess than the offense doesn’t mean that the offense is not a weakness. Look at how the M’s offense compares to the rest of the league. Obviously, you recognize this, because your offseason plan includes a major makeover of the offense.
Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic. Seriously. You can’t actually believe that. Sexson may have had a slow start this season, but that comp is ludicrous.
I really think that your are undervaluing Sexson. With the numbers that are being thrown around for Lee and Soriano, I think that Sexson for 2 years/24 million would be a real attractive option for a lot of clubs. You yourself said the exact same thing. If I were Bavasi, I would approach trade talks as if Sexson is a good bet to match his 2005 numbers. If other clubs want to get him for nearly nothing, and essentially just take on his contract, then the M’s should just keep him for another year and cross their fingers. At the very least, I would be looking for something useful back, even if it meant taking on payroll in return. There are more ways to trade a guy like Sexson than a simple salary dump. There just aren’t that many guys with 40-HR power available this offseason.
I also think that you are underestimating the bidding for Manny Ramirez. Lots of teams would love to add a guy like him. There is a ton of money floating around the league. I would be amazed if another club couldn’t better a package of Soriano, Reed, and Cruceta for Ramirez, even with his albatross contract. The Angels could blow that out of the water. So could the Tigers. Both have pitching and/or prospects to offer, and both need offense.
In general, I think that you are underestimating the value that teams place on veteran power hitters. Also, I think that you are underestimating teams’ willingness to take on contracts like these. The 5-year contract is back. Teams have money to burn. Regardless of whether it is a good idea or not, clubs are willing to pay out the nose for established middle of the order players. I think we are going to see a whole new level of idiocy this offseason. In that type of environment, Sexson’s contract will look like a bargain.
So what exactly are the chances of Gil Meche coming back? Is the front office pretty much set on letting him walk, or will they offer a small 2yr/12mil type deal and see if he bites?
It seems like everyone in the M’s blogosphere assumes (or knows) that he won’t be back in 2007, is this a safe assumption to make?
I regards to moving Sexson just to move him, I was responding to a comment (#58) that said that getting the money off the payroll would be sufficient in and of itself.
Well, since I didn’t bother to post what I would do with the freed up money, insinuating that it would just be a roster dump is an acceptable conclusion to what I said. If one doesn’t clarify oneself, assumptions are fair game.
Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic. Seriously.
I wouldn’t say “idiotic”, but I think it does ignore Eric Hinske’s obvious platoon splits.
Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic.
Not that Dave needs my help, but I don’t think he meant that at all. From where I sit, I see that Eric Hinske has about 70-80% of the value of Sexson, and 1/3 the price. Considering who else they have on their roster (Ortiz, Lowell, Youkilis), I don’t see a huge need for Boston to trade for Big Sexy. But I’m sure there are a few other teams that would….
So what exactly are the chances of Gil Meche coming back? Is the front office pretty much set on letting him walk, or will they offer a small 2yr/12mil type deal and see if he bites?
Based on both Bill Bavasi’s comments and Howard Lincoln’s comments, I’d say less then a 5% chance. There’s always a chance that they keep him on a low risk, cheap contract. But Gil wouldn’t go for that. I think both sides basically don’t want to bother. I’m sure they’ll go through the motions in order for the Mariners to pick up a supplemental draft pick from whomever signs him, but retaining him is not their plan.
#85: Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic.
He said: “And they have Eric Hinske under contract for next year, and honestly, he’s about as good as Sexson is, and making 1/3 of the money.”
Look at the EqA’s at baseballprospectus.com and see just how much better Sexson is by that measure.
I can answer that one, peon though I am: no, it isn’t. This is a thread to discuss Dave’s plan, not to allow others who have neither Dave’s wits nor his connections to post their own half-baked concoctions.
Look at the EqA’s at baseballprospectus.com and see just how much better Sexson is by that measure.
Actually I agree with Jerry that Hinske isn’t close to Sexson’s offensive value. Hinske’s overall value might be equal to Sexson’s if you factor in defense and being cheaper, but offensively Hinske is a nightmare against lefties. He’s a platoon vs. righties and not quite on the same level as Broussard.
That was of course in response to #82.
91, see 84. Speculate within reason. I’m fine with that.
I regards to moving Sexson just to move him, I was responding to a comment (#58) that said that getting the money off the payroll would be sufficient in and of itself. My point was, you have to have a pretty damn good plan to use that money, becasue (in my opinion) there aren’t any impact bats available in free agency this year that would be good signings. Nobody was insinuating that the money would just be cut from the budget.
And he was responding to your comment that the M’s should have to get something more than two midlevel prospects for Richie. His response, and one I agree with, is that moving Sexson’s contract is good enough to take a deal that doesn’t return a lot of talen in that trade, because it frees up a lot of money to do some other things.
The problem with a salary dump to free up money is that you have to know how you are going to spend that money. Part of the problem with your plan is that it would necessitate coordinating several moves at once: if you trade Sexson for two middling prospects, and can’t pull of the Ramirez deal, you are SOL. You have to replace that offense, and, hopefully, add more. If one thing falls through, you end up in a bidding war with Baltimore for Alfonso Soriano.
No, I’m not. I have a ton of backup plans, and none of them involve Alfonso Soriano.
For instance, trade Sexson and cash to Detriot for Humberto Sanchez and two other lower-level prospects. Sanchez is the M’s 4th starter. Or trade him for a guy with ML experience. To Baltimore for Daniel Cabrera.
You overvalue Richie Sexson. Neither Detroit or Baltimore would make that move, no matter how much you want them to.
Fourth, are you seriously arguing that Eric Hinske is better than Richie Sexson? That is completely idiotic. Seriously. You can’t actually believe that. Sexson may have had a slow start this season, but that comp is ludicrous.
Hinske in Toronto, playing regularly: .264/.353/.513
Sexson in Seattle: .264/.338/.500
Park effects give Richie the advantage, but it’s not a huge one. Hinske is 90% of Richie Sexson, and his big flaw (can’t hit lefties) can be reduced with a platoon, while Sexson’s big flaw (sucks for long periods of time) can’t.
I’d trade Sexson for Hinske, straight up, in a heartbeat. If you think that’s idiotic, that’s your problem.
I really think that your are undervaluing Sexson.
How many people with other organizations have you talked to about Richie Sexson and their interest in him? Just wondering…
I also think that you are underestimating the bidding for Manny Ramirez.
How many people with other organizations have you talked to about Manny Ramirez and their interest in him? Just wondering…
In general, I think that you are underestimating the value that teams place on veteran power hitters. Also, I think that you are underestimating teams’ willingness to take on contracts like these.
How many people… oh, you get the point. I’m sure you’ll call me some kind of elitist bastard for this, but Jerry, when it comes to these kind of topics, you’ve got a crazy imagination and no real information of value.
So what exactly are the chances of Gil Meche coming back? Is the front office pretty much set on letting him walk, or will they offer a small 2yr/12mil type deal and see if he bites?
He’s gone.
Look at how the M’s offense compares to the rest of the league.
Again, this year’s offense compares as AVERAGE to the rest of the AL, when you correct for the fact that Safeco is to hitting what Mike Hargrove is to sound in-game decisions, and if you consider that it is very unlikely we will have two sub-replacement level players in the lineup every day next year AND we have several players who have room to grow their games, it probably counts as above average in 2007.
No matter how much you repeat “the M’s offense sucks”, it’s just not so. The problem is Safeco screwing up the performance numbers, not the offense.
RE #90 and Hinske versus Sexson,
You could reach that type of conclusion if you looked at one single stat (EqA in your example) and totally disregard all other information about these two players.
Eric Hinske had one good year (2002), signed a big contract, and was the type of player you couldn’t give away for three years until this season. The Blue Jays and Red Sox masked his weaknesses by platooning him, but the guy is not good. He is a below average defensive player who requires a platoon partner and may hit .275/.350/.450 with 15 HRs if you are lucky.
Sexson had a bad first half, but he has legit 40 HR power. In a park like Fenway, he could easily hit 50. Players with that type of power are rare. He plays everyday. He is also a big-name player with a track record. Bloggers and stat folks may see this as terribly overrated (I agree with you on this) but teams like this type of player. He has much much more trade value in the real world than a guy like Hinske. Eric Hinske’s are easy to find. Guys like Richie Sexson aren’t.
Honestly, I don’t like the Mariner’s offense either (as it is right now). But that has less to do with the players and more with their approach. I, like the rest of us statistical analyzing whores, like walks, extra base hits, and not hacking at bad pitches. SO an approach difference would help, but getting other people who can do those things is a good idear too.
In a park like Fenway, he could easily hit 50
In a park like Fenway, he’d have 80 doubles and 1000 long singles off the Monster. This has been mentioned elsewhere, but Fenway stifles homeruns too.