Daisuke Matsuzaka, posting, and the M’s
Assume that he posts, for purposes of this discussion. I’m going to start re-posting “How Posting Works” almost entirely
(prelude: player asks their team to be posted, and team decides they’ll do so)
1. Japanese team notifies the Japanese Commissioner’s Office that they’ll let Ichiro be posted.
2. Japanese Commissioner notifies MLB
3. MLB notifies all teams that Ichiro is available
4. Teams have four days to submit a bid. The bid is how much they’ll pay the team not for the player but the chance to negotiate a contract with the player. The Mariners submit a bid of $12.5m.
5. The Japanese team, Orix, is told only of the highest bid amount. Here, it’s the Mariners at $12.5m.
6. The Japanese team has four days to accept or reject the winning bid
7. They make a decision:
If they accept, the winning team has 30 days to agree to a contract with the posted player
If they reject, no deal. They can’t then shop him to the second-highest bidding team or anything.In Ichiro’s case, Orix accepts the posting offer, and the Mariners begin discussing contract terms with Ichiro.
8. Then the player and the winning team negotiate, and one of two things happens:
If the winning team and player can come to an agreement, the player signs and reports to spring training next season, and the Japanese team gets the posting fee. The Mariners and Ichiro agreed, and he signed his original 2001 deal.If the winning team and player can’t come to an agreement, the player returns to the team that controls his rights, and the Japanese team does not get the posting fee. The player then waits for next year or to become a normal FA, when he can go where he wants
Dave’s 2006 Offseason Plan had the M’s paying $25m to win the bidding war, and signing him to a 3y, $30m deal.
There are a couple of issues that come into play now:
– The Yankees may be gripped with post-season insanity and capable of doing anything
– Teams sometimes handle posting fees as if it’s not real money
The M’s for years made a strange-seeming argument that for tax reasons, posting fees and contracts for players who’d never been in affiliated baseball (Japanese free agents or posted players, Cuban refugees) didn’t count against payroll or player development budgets. They’ve changed their tune on this recently.
– And yet, it is real money
Ownership groups don’t look at a $30m expenditure and shrug because it’s a special expenditure
– Posting fees aren’t currently, so far as I can tell, counted in any way against the salary cap
This makes chasing Japanese players even more interesting for a team like the Yankees. From their view, instead of paying top dollar for a free-agent pitcher that counts against the cap, they pay about the same amount of total money and get a top pitcher who only counts a little against the cap.
– That could change with the new collective bargaining agreement
Domestic players must regard those posting fees with a shake of the head. The player doesn’t get anything of it, and the winning team’s leverage over the posted player reduces their salary, which hurts other players (in citing comperables during salary negotiations) and the union (less money in dues). They may also believe that the money would otherwise be spent on players, making them all richer. Teams may not mind, either, in the “stop us before we pay free agents too much” way they cry for brakes on the cost of labor.
If this does get into the new agreement and posting fees count against the cap, pro-rated or however, it’ll be a huge blow to the Yankees chances, since they’re already over the cap and are facing escalating taxes each year.
When Ichiro posted, teams tried to put together fairly rational bids, with the M’s willing to ensure they topped everyone.
If Matsuzaka posts, it’s going to get a little crazy. Say you think Matsuzaka is worth $12m/year, which is top-tier free agent pitcher money, and your best guess is that he’s willing to sign for $10m/year over 3y if you win the bid. If you’re an entirely rational team, your bid is $6m.
If Matsuzaka posts, I anticipate every team who needs a pitcher will bid something, even knowing they’ll lose. If you put in a low-ball bid and lose, no harm. If you luck out and win, woo-hoo! You get to see what he wants, maybe even low-ball him yourself, and if he goes back to his team, you’re not out a penny. Bidding a couple of million dollars is like a free lottery ticket.
Figure that there will be a whole bunch of teams that bid $5-$6m. It doesn’t even matter who they are. A serious bid to win has to be at least $10m. The problem then is that you’ll have at leaset two teams willing to spend much, much more than that:
– Mariners (Japanese connection, rich, desperate for pitching, willing to bid on posting players)
– Yankees (richer, possibly more desperate, also willing to bid)
They’re going to consider how much it’s worth to win, how much it’s worth to deny him to another team, and what other things they could put the money to.
$25m? $30m? We’ve heard those floated already, as some of the process plays out in the media. You’re already starting to see teams float numbers and watch for responses and leaks from other organizations. Every team that wants to win is going to play this game as well as it can: the Yankees have a massive press advantage and can control the story (“Yankees to bid $30m says team official”), while the M’s might be able to play that game in Japan (“Matsuzaka to demand 5y/$55m deal”).
While it’s worth paying some attention to if you’re interested in where he’ll end up, much of what comes out after the World Series up to the submission of bids is going to be disinformation and manipulation, as teams try to get each other to lower their bids, letting the winner get a bargain, or to raise their bids, needlessly tying their team’s resources up (if you can get the Yankees to bid $40m when the next-highest bid is $10m, that’s good, unless he rules).
And then there’s the winner’s curse.
The only thing we can know for certain is that if he posts, it’s going to get crazy.
Playoffs for Saturday, Oct 7
San Diego at St. Louis, ESPN @ 10:09 (where did these 09s come from? Are they really that desperate to squeeze another 4m of commercials in?)(yes)
New York Yankees at Detroit, FOX @ 1:09. The A’s await the winner. Go Tigers woooo!
New York Mets at Los Angeles, FOX@ 5:05.
I gotta say, none of these pitching matchups really do it for me. Young v Suppan, Wright v Bonderman, Trachsel v Maddux. Bonderman vs the Yankees is the most interesting, but other than that… eh.
More importantly, you can still RSVP for the USSM Feed this Friday. About half the spots went in the first couple of hours, but all is not lost yet.
Friday’s October Baseball
Twins at Oakland, 1:09pm, ESPN. I thought this would be the best of the first-round series, with great matchups and two interesting teams. But the Twins may get bumped today.
Derek Jeter and his Yankees at Detroit, 5:09pm, ESPN.
USSM Post-Season Feed 06 Details and RSVP
Friday, October 13th, ~6pm-8pm+, Capitol Hill, Seattle. About 50 people total. No announced special guests, just me, Jeff, Dave, you and a good four dozen or so other Mariner fans. We’ll probably do some Q&A, I’ll have some Q&A for everyone… good times. We may podcast any Q&A we do – Jeff’s considering how we’d pull this off.
Some space still available
$22 includes all the pizza you can eat (many varieties, lots of it), salad, soda, and a tip. If you want to order beer, we’ll talk about that at the feed but it’s not included in that $22. The food’s going to be great.
Generally, spots for Feeds go really fast, so I encourage you, if you want to attend, to do so as soon as you can.
To RSVP:
If you have or can use Paypal
1. Email us and say “Put me down for 12 people, please” (your number may vary). If you’re a vegetarian or have other pizza-related requests, let us know so I can get the pizza mix optimal.
2. We say “word” or something similarly awkward.
3. Using the handy information we will send you when you submit your RSVP, use Paypal to send us $22*number of people you’re bringing.
4. I mark you down as having paid on my sheet, and we’re good.
Unless you skip #3, and then I give your spot to someone else.
If you can’t use Paypal for technical, moral, or other reasons, but still feel you’re a valued member of the USSM community like, say, super-reader Paul Covert, who we wish would come by and comment sometime
Drop us a line and we’ll see what we can do.
USSM Post-Season Feed
Friday, October 13th, 6-8+, Capitol Hill, Seattle, ~50 or so spots open. We have a location secured and mucho food and beverages will be available.
No announced special guests, just the USSM crew and you and yours. We’ll probably do some Q&A, I’ll have some Q&A for everyone… good times.
RSVP instructions, cost, etc all to be announced shortly.
Please, if you can’t go, don’t leave a comment that says “I’d love to go, but” — we’d love to have you, but I need to keep this thread clean that’s annoying.
10/5 Playoffs
Sooo, what do we have?
Detroit finally throws a good pitcher at the Yankees after yesterday’s postponement. (in progress). The Yankees not in prime time! OMG WTF!?!
Cards @ Padres, 1:05
Dodgers @ Mets, 5:05
Another day of absolutely ridiculous scheduling
Oakland @ Minnesota, 10am. For my money the most interesting series plays mid-morning here and early afternoon on that other coast. Is this really the best they could do?
Dodgers @ Mets, 1 pm.
Tigers @ Yankees, 5pm. Verlander v Mussina, should be a better game than yesterday.
San Diego @ Cardinals takes a day off. A day off!
Stupid Yankees, always getting their preferential scheduling and everything. Ridiculous.
P-I goes baseball crazy
One of the worst things about the offseason is that there are rarely any stories to read about the Mariners. I hate going to the local daily’s sports section and seeing a top story about UW’s women’s volleyball team.
Thankfully, the P-I isn’t going out without a fight. It’s a veritable cornocopia of baseball content over there today.
John Hickey: State of the Mariners. John’s overview on what the team needs to do this offseason.
Art Thiel: Lincoln on Hot Seat. Art Thiel talks to Howard Lincoln about the pressure he’s facing.
Dave Andriessen: Line-up Stability Big Goal. Andriessen gets to hear Hargrove whine about not getting to post the same line-up 162 days in a row.
Andriessen: Open Secret, M’s Need Pitching. Andriessen weighs in with the M’s need for help in the starting rotation.
Hickey: 0-11 Road Trip. For some reason, John Hickey rehashes the godawful road trip from hell.
And, if that wasn’t enough for you, John Hickey will be chatting at noon about the team.
None of the articles say a whole lot that we didn’t know already, but if you’re into quantity instead of quality, today is your day.
We go three-for-three
Yankees v Tigers. Go Tigers! Woooo!
Not-live blog, NCDS Padres @ Cardinals
1:00pm: Chris “You’re With Me, Leather” Berman is an astoundingly bad baseball guy. Going from Jon Miller to Berman is possibly the most jarring transition ever.
Also, every Fox promo I’ve seen has been all about the Cardinals. But the Padres are easily their equal. Is there really no way to market the Cardinals?
1:02: Berman manages to use “rumbling, stumbling…” for the first time. To quote Bart Simpson, “Snipers, where are you?” We do get Orel, though, for color… who immediately says that the “stats don’t show..” Peavy’s good, because his W-L record is 11-14. WHEEEE!!
1:07: YWML does a toss to the third man in the booth, the guy on the field. It takes him about 20s to do the toss.
Eckstein! “What’s that coach? Time to go to playoffs? Is it? Is it?”
1:11: Eckstein can be an ignitor. Hee hee hee.
1:15: I remember when there was controversy over whether Peavy or Tankersley would be the better pitcher. Peavy just struck out Pujols. Anyone know what Tank’s up to?
1:23: ahhh, the cat-and-mouse game between pitcher and runner, the most exciting part of baseball
1:25: that’s a sweet double play by the Cardinals there
1:34: Orel talks for a minute about Peavy’s pitches and the relative difficulty, and it makes more sense than anything I’ve heard from a color guy in ages
1:45: I know this is a little obvious, but Peavy is sweeeeeeeet. 15th-round draft pick (472nd overall) in the 1999 draft.
1:49: Berman just used “literally” incorrectly. Arrrghhh.
1:54: I wonder if tonight’s game will turn out to be a tense, low-scoring affair too. Prrroooobably not.
2:00: These Peavy-Pujols matches are awesome
2:10: ahhhh, the old NL intentional walk
2:13 The Most Offensive Commercial Ever airs again.
2:23: Carpenter can get some incredible break on his pitches, just eye-popping. Gonzalez just saw one.
2:28: Orel just delivered a long speech about how they started Branyan off with soft stuff because, as a young player, he might be anxious… Branyan’s 30 with the hitting skillset of a 35-year-old slugger. Come on. And shockingly, despite YWML’s plea for a blooper, which is about as likely as getting insight from YWML, Branyan whiffs. TTO, folks.
2:38 Pujols hit a middling grounder up the middle and for just an instant, I thought “Oh, Betancourt’s got that, easy” and then saw the Padres shortstop pull up as it was already by him. We M’s fans have it good in some ways.
2:52 Piazza! On a pitchout! With the… throw!
3:09 during the “We scored!” celebration I saw a fan in the stands with one of the old Kroc McDonald’s-style jerseys. That’s dedication, wearing that thing.
3:16: the shadows remind me of Safeco’s afternoon shadows, where pitchers with brutal breaking stuff would throw them over and over and the batters would just shake their heads and walk back to the dugout
3:24: wow, Branyan went way down to get that, that was a golf swing triple
3:27: the wheels came off Carpenter fast. Ugh.
3:34: my cat makes an appearance, suddenly interested in the game. I guess she’s a Padres fan.
3:35: ooooh, she looks pissed
3:46: I trashed YWML, but he’s been remarkably restrained so far, especially compared to what I’ve seen out of him before. I’m not that annoyed at all.