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MLB Trade Value for 2007
About a year and a half ago, I did a post on who has the most trade value in the major leagues, blatently stealing off an idea from Bill Simmons of a column he’s been doing for a while on NBA players. It was pretty popular, so last summer, I did something similar for just the AL West.
Since it’s been a while and people keep asking, plus the fact that the M’s have been rained out yet again, I’ve now updated the MLB Trade Value list for how I think things stack up today. Once again, let’s borrow from Simmons’ rules, slightly modified to fit baseball.
A. Salaries matter. Would you rather pay David Wright $55 million for the next six years or Lance Berkman $85 million over the same period?
B. Age matters. Would you rather have Roy Halladay for the next five seasons or Scott Kazmir for the next 12?
C. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded straight up for any other player without budget ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y straight up,” would Team B make the deal or not?
D. Concentrate on degrees. For instance, neither the Mariners nor Cardinals would pull the trigger on an Pujols-Hernandez trade. But at the very least, the Cardinals say, “Wow, Felix Hernandez is available?” while the Mariners would say, “There’s no way we’re trading Felix, but Albert Pujols…” That counts in the big scheme of things.
E. Make the list in reverse order (Nos. 40 to 1). So if Ryan Howard comes in at No. 14, players 1 through 13 are all players about whom Philadelphia would probably say, “We hate giving up Howard, but there’s no way we can pass up that deal.” And they wouldn’t trade him for any player listed between Nos. 15 and 40.
So, now that we have those issues out of the way, try to remember that this whole post is for fun. Try not to get all bent out of shape if you think I have Grady Sizemore two slots too low or Nick Markakis ten spots too high. It’s a water cooler discussion post. Take it as such. So, without further ado:
| Rank | Name | Position | Team |
| 1 | Felix Hernandez | RHP | Seattle |
| 2 | Albert Pujols | 1B | St. Louis |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | 3B | Florida |
| 4 | Jose Reyes | SS | New York Mets |
| 5 | Joe Mauer | C | Minnesota Twins |
| 6 | Grady Sizemore | CF | Cleveland |
| 7 | Johan Santana | LHP | Minnesota |
| 8 | Brian McCann | C | Atlanta |
| 9 | Delmon Young | RF | Tampa Bay |
| 10 | David Wright | 3B | New York Mets |
| 11 | Scott Kazmir | LHP | Tampa Bay |
| 12 | Chase Utley | 2B | Philadelphia |
| 13 | Brandon Webb | RHP | Arizona |
| 14 | Ryan Howard | 1B | Philadelphia |
| 15 | Ben Sheets | RHP | Milwaukee |
| 16 | Jeremy Bonderman | RHP | Detroit |
| 17 | Travis Hafner | DH | Cleveland |
| 18 | Alex Gordon | 3B | Kansas City |
| 19 | John Lackey | RHP | Anaheim |
| 20 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | RHP | Boston |
| 21 | Howie Kendrick | 2B | Anaheim |
| 22 | Carl Crawford | LF | Tampa Bay |
| 23 | Philip Hughes | RHP | New York Yankees |
| 24 | Hanley Ramirez | SS | Florida |
| 25 | Roy Halladay | RHP | Toronto |
| 26 | Matt Cain | RHP | San Francisco |
| 27 | Nick Markakis | RF | Baltimore |
| 28 | Brett Myers | RHP | Philadelphia |
| 29 | Ryan Zimmerman | 3B | Washington |
| 30 | Justin Verlander | RHP | Detroit |
| 31 | Prince Fielder | 1B | Milwaukee |
| 32 | Jake Peavy | RHP | San Diego |
| 33 | Rickie Weeks | 2B | Milwaukee |
| 34 | Jeff Francoeur | RF | Atlanta |
| 35 | Cole Hamels | LHP | Philadelphia |
| 36 | Robinson Cano | 2B | New York Yankees |
| 37 | Jason Bay | LF | Pittsburgh |
| 38 | Lance Berkman | 1B | Houston |
| 39 | Erik Bedard | LHP | Baltimore |
| 40 | Dan Haren | RHP | Oakland |
Okay, so, there’s the list. On to the notes.
You can argue where Felix ranks among the best pitchers in the game, considering he’s been spectacular in spurts before and hasn’t shown the consistency required of a true ace. But you can’t argue that he’s making $400,000 this year and is under club control through 2011. There’s still the problem of attrition with young pitchers and the risk is high, but the reward is worth it. Felix is the most valuable property in the game.
I went back and forth on Cabrera and Pujols for the #2 spot. In the end, the fact that Pujols is signed through 2010 with an option for 2011 won me over. With Cabrera, you’re getting a great young player that could walk away after 2009, and with the inflating market, won’t be cheap even if you manage to get him under contract. That hurts his value enough to push him down to the #3 spot, even though he may outhit Pujols this year.
Reyes, Sizemore, and Mauer are basically interchangable. All three play up-the-middle defensive spots, and all are legitimate MVP candidates before they turn 25. I give the slight edge to Reyes because he has the fewest questions about his ability to remain at his position and he’s the most athletically gifted of the three, but you don’t have to argue very long for either of the other two before I shurg and say “okay”.
I might have Johan too high at #7, since he’s only under contract for another two years. But he’s been so consistently unbelievable that almost any team in baseball is a contender by adding Johan to the front of their rotation, and he’s been willing to discuss an extension with the Twins, so theoretically you could keep him off the open market by getting a deal done soon.
Despite the fact that he’s all the way at #14, I might actually be overrating Ryan Howard. He’s already 27, and his body suggests he won’t age gracefully. 2006 will go down as his career year, and if he regresses too far offensively, then he’s just a good player instead of a great one. However, since he’s heading into just his third year, he’s still very cheap, so his contract pushes him up the list.
I’m going to get a lot of grief for having Hanley Ramirez 20 spots below Jose Reyes, but I’m not sold on Hanley repeating his 2006 year on a consistent basis. I’m also still not sold on his defense. But he’s cheap and still clearly one of the best shortstops in the league, so 24 is as low as I could put him.
Nick Markakis at #27 is something of a hunch pick, but I love his swing, he’s a pretty good defensive player as well, and he’s heading into his second season in the majors, meaning he makes nothing. That’s a valuable asset, and if he takes the step forward that he’s capable of, he could easily crack the top ten next year.
If there’s one guy who could make me look really bad for having him way too low, its Cole Hamels. If he stays healthy this year and pitches up to his talent level, he’s a top five guy. He’s that good.
Guys who just missed the cut: Francisco Liriano, Justin Morneau, Matt Holliday, Adam Loewen, and Scott Olsen.
Comments
264 Responses to “MLB Trade Value for 2007”
It kills me that Hanley Ramirez is at #25 and Josh Beckett rightly isn’t even sniffing the list.
Yea, that trade hasn’t worked out too well for Boston. I still like Beckett, and think he will help them, but when you trade an ultra-toolsy 21-year-old, these are the kinds of things that can happen.
I’m kind of surprised Carl Crawford isn’t higher on the list. His power is trending up and he’s still only 26. Is his lack of ability to draw walks hurting him that much?
I like the list, but I’m not sure why you, along with others, are so high on Francouer. I don’t know, I’ve never liked a guy with a low batting average and low walks. I see the talent, but I see more results in Berkman (MVP-type season last year), Cano, and Bay. How come Oswalt’s not on this list, he’s not too old, he’s really consistent, and he’s pretty cheap I think comparatively.
I love seeing King Felix at the top of the list, and I think the reasons you put him there are well-thought-out. He’s cheap, young, and is capable of turning in some incredibly dominant pitching performances. He could be even more of a bargain next year than he is right now, as he continues to mature and find his groove.
I hate not seeing ANY other Mariners names on that list. Felix’s awesomeness deserves to have a good young team built around it, and it’s a shame that our current management have almost no shot at making that happen.
Haren but not Harden? If anyone has a chance to at least keep within spitting distance of The King in the AL West over the next 4 years, it’s Harden. Why isn’t he on the list? Does his admittedly long injury history scare you off that much?
Yeah, the things I picked out here immediately as being sort of funny were Cole Hamels being so low and the fact that Oakland’s only got one person on the list and it’s Haren. I may be biased, but out of curiosity, do you think a healthy Rich Harden is better or worse than Danny Haren?
I like the list, but I’m not sure why you, along with others, are so high on Francouer. I don’t know, I’ve never liked a guy with a low batting average and low walks.
I was going to say the same thing about Francouer. He’s such a hacking machine it’s crazy. 23 walks in 674 plate appearances last year is just simply absurd. Something tells me he’ll never learn how to work a count and take a walk.
Wow, great minds think alike.
Also, I hate seeing Brett Myers so high, but that might just be because I think he’s a bad guy, not because I think he’s a bad pitcher.
I’m kind of surprised Carl Crawford isn’t higher on the list. His power is trending up and he’s still only 26. Is his lack of ability to draw walks hurting him that much?
If Crawford would agree to play center field, his value would shoot up quite a bit. But as a left fielder, you have to be pretty awesome to be a competitive advantage for your team.
I like the list, but I’m not sure why you, along with others, are so high on Francoeur. I don’t know, I’ve never liked a guy with a low batting average and low walks. I see the talent, but I see more results in Berkman (MVP-type season last year), Cano, and Bay.
I’m not sure why you can like Cano and not Francoeur. They have the same skillset offensively, except Francoeur is the far superior athlete and a much better defensive player. Berkman drops quite a ways due to his salary ($85 million over 6 years) and his terrible defense.
How come Oswalt’s not on this list, he’s not too old, he’s really consistent, and he’s pretty cheap I think comparatively.
You think $75 million over the next 5 years is cheap for a guy whose peripherals have been trending the wrong way for three years and has a history of nagging injuries? He’ll be a league average pitcher, at best, in 2 years, and the last couple years of that contract could be very ugly.
Haren but not Harden? If anyone has a chance to at least keep within spitting distance of The King in the AL West over the next 4 years, it’s Harden. Why isn’t he on the list? Does his admittedly long injury history scare you off that much?
Rich Harden made 72 starts in the last four years. When he can throw 150 innings without falling apart, he’ll make the list.
I may be biased, but out of curiosity, do you think a healthy Rich Harden is better or worse than Danny Haren?
Amazing blue eyes were not a factor here, Deanna. Sorry. I’d rather have Haren’s 220 innings of above average production than Harden’s 120 innings of hopeful goodness and a big rehab bill.
Also, can I be the first to say [Francoeur], goddamnit
Is Matsuzaka ranked based on just his contract, or the contract plus the posting fee? Where would you put him under the alternate scenario? If I’m tacking on the posting fee, I’d probably drop him below Halladay.
I think your first list had ARod quite high. What caused him to fall out of favor? He’s expensive, but compare his offensive production on the season so far with the Ms lineup.
You can have Haren and I’ll take Harden. I’m willing to bear the injury risk for the substantial upside over Haren. The two performance-wise are not close.
2 questions:
Why is Bay so low? I know he isn’t under contract very long, but neither is Hafner. I know Hafner’s the superior hitter, but with Bay’s superior defense and the fact that he’s younger, is Hafner really 20 spots better? Seems like a .300/.400/.500 hitter who can play the field, who’s still on the right side of 30 and who makes relatively little should be ranked higher.
Also, Fielder over Weeks? I know Weeks has had some injuries, but it seems like Fielder’s a big risk to break down permanently all of a sudden, Mo Vaughn style.
Is Matsuzaka ranked based on just his contract, or the contract plus the posting fee? Where would you put him under the alternate scenario? If I’m tacking on the posting fee, I’d probably drop him below Halladay.
The posting fee has already been paid, so its just the contract. We’re not including past salaries or signing bonus’ against other players, so we don’t count the posting fee against Daisuke.
I think your first list had ARod quite high. What caused him to fall out of favor? He’s expensive, but compare his offensive production on the season so far with the Ms lineup.
He has an opt out at the end of this year, so he’s likely to be a free agent this winter. I wouldn’t trade any of these guys for one year of A-Rod, no matter how great he is.
You can have Haren and I’ll take Harden. I’m willing to bear the injury risk for the substantial upside over Haren. The two performance-wise are not close.
It’s a lot closer than you might think. Haren’s established level of production is rough 220 innings and 100 runs allowed. The one year Harden got over 130 innings (2004, 189 IP), he allowed 89 runs. Even if you want to give him credit as a 3.50 RA guy over 220 innings (which is extremely generous, in my opinion), you’re looking at about 85 runs allowed. So, assuming Harden was able to stay healthy for a full season and pitch at his peak level for the whole year, he’d be about 15 runs better than Dan Haren.
15 runs over the course of the year is a win and a half. That’s not substantial upside. That’s a marginal improvement, with a massive amount of risk.
You’re right that you’ve overrated Howard. I’d drop him out of the top 30.
Would you honestly trade Alex Gordon to get Ryan Howard?
One name that surprised me on your list from a year and a half ago was Johnny Peralta. He had just come off a big 2005. As it turns out, he struggled in 2006. Did you give him any consideration this time around? Do you think he will rebound in 2007? He’s still cheap and (relatively) young.
Why is Bay so low? I know he isn’t under contract very long, but neither is Hafner. I know Hafner’s the superior hitter, but with Bay’s superior defense and the fact that he’s younger, is Hafner really 20 spots better? Seems like a .300/.400/.500 hitter who can play the field, who’s still on the right side of 30 and who makes relatively little should be ranked higher.
Travis Hafner, on a per at-bat basis, was the best non-Pujols hitter in baseball last year. There’s a pretty huge difference between Hafner’s bat and Bay’s bat. Bay is a good hitter - Hafner is a great hitter.
Also, Fielder over Weeks? I know Weeks has had some injuries, but it seems like Fielder’s a big risk to break down permanently all of a sudden, Mo Vaughn style.
Weeks hasn’t been the picture of health himself. They’re close, and I could seen an argument either way.
Would you honestly trade Alex Gordon to get Ryan Howard?
Depends on my team’s roster. If I’m the Royals, no. But if I’m a team like the Red Sox? Yea, I do. Howard has more present value than Gordon.
But I think you have to give the nod to Gordon for playing a harder position to fill then Howard.
Just a correction about Santana. He’s actually broken off talks about a contract extension with the Twins and has stated he won’t discuss it again until he hits the open market.
And you have to give Howard the nod for being a 6-7 win player last year. Trying to find a guy who can play at that level, while making less than $500K for the 2007 season, is next to impossible.
Just a correction about Santana. He’s actually broken off talks about a contract extension with the Twins and has stated he won’t discuss it again until he hits the open market.
No, he hasn’t. That report wasn’t true.
I recognize his talent as much as anyone, but given his… temperamental nature, I’m shocked Delmon Young is on this list at all, let alone at #9.
I can see and understand the inclusion and placement of the remaining players.
Haren annoys me because he just slams into a wall around inning 6. It seems like he struggles getting through the order the third time through. Last start he didn’t, but it did seem like all of last year he would just stop being effective at that point.
I recognize his talent as much as anyone, but given his… temperamental nature, I’m shocked Delmon Young is on this list at all, let alone at #9.
Last year, as a 21-year-old rookie, he hit .318/.336/.476. As a 22-year-old, he’s started this year hitting .375/.382/.625.
Miguel Cabrera’s a piece of work himself, but talent wins out.
That is true, there is no doubt that Howard is a better player right now, and obviously last year, but I still don’t think I would want him over Gordon and what he is going to offer in 2-3 years.
I hate not seeing ANY other Mariners names on that list.
Who would be the #2 Mariner on the list? Lopez? Jojima?
Haren annoys me because he just slams into a wall around inning 6. It seems like he struggles getting through the order the third time through. Last start he didn’t, but it did seem like all of last year he would just stop being effective at that point.
Haren’s 2006, broken down by inning segments:
Innings 1-3: 440 PA, 63 Runs Allowed, .277/.324/.446
Innings 4-6: 392 PA, 36 Runs Allowed, .238/.274/.392
Innings 7-9: 98 PA, 7 Runs Allowed, .253/.306/.407
So no, not really.
Right, that is why I quantified it as “a healthy Rich Harden”. I know there’s more to a pitcher than having dreamy blue eyes (see Washburn, Jarrod) but, I dunno, I’ve watched both Haren and Harden warm up in the bullpen at Safeco. With Haren, you’re like, “okay, shaggy guy throws pretty good stuff.” With Harden, you’re like “holy hell, hoser’s hurling heat!”
But yeah, Haren’s pretty good. Not saying he isn’t.
Any consideration given to Mark Teixeira?
But yeah, Haren’s pretty good. Not saying he isn’t.
Haren might be the most underrated pitcher in the game. I don’t think most people realize how good he is.
Any consideration given to Mark Teixeira?
He’s only under contract for the next two years. So, if he explodes and turns into the monster we’ve been waiting for, then you’re paying through the nose for him. If he doesn’t, well, then, the question is moot, right?
If he were healthy - or proves to be healthy next year - how high does Francisco Liriano rate on this list?
I’m actually with you on Haren; the guy’s a beast who doesn’t get as much notoriety as Harden OR Blanton it seems (what with all the stories about how he’s a ‘winner’ or about how he got so little run support, etc.). He’s got a good shot to turn in some Halladay-like seasons, getting up near 220IP with decent Ks (though fewer GBs).
But I do have to echo a concern brought up before regarding Francoeur. The guy’s young, to be sure, but in his only full season he put up an OPS+ of 89. Plenty of room for growth, athleticism, tools, etc. but he’s got a LOT of ground to make up vis a vis the rest of the people on this list AND he’s playing a defensive position that makes his production a bit more questionable.
And I’ll avoid the objection you made above and say that I think Cano’s a bit too high as well. I think he’s a very solid player, and for the money, he’s a super value. But his MLB performances are sooo far out of line with his MiLB track record that you’ve got to wonder how much of his 2006 was a fluke. I don’t think Robinson Cano thinks Robinson Cano is a .340 hitter, so it’s just a question of how far he drops. If he’s a consistent .300/.340/.490 hitter for the next few years, then yeah, I guess he might merit a spot above Morneau and Loewen (I think Loewen needs a spot on the list, though I can’t really think of anyone besides Francoeur that I’d take off - this is hard).
In the spirit of water cooler type discussion, I think I’d take Miguel Cabrera over Pujols. Phat Albert seems like he is always fighting through a variety of injuries, often lower-body, and I’d be worried that he’s likely to miss more and more time as he ages. Did you consider that as a factor? Also, I have to ask, do you think we’ve had the final word on his true age?
Would you honestly trade Alex Gordon to get Ryan Howard?
Depends on my team’s roster. If I’m the Royals, no. But if I’m a team like the Red Sox? Yea, I do. Howard has more present value than Gordon.
I don’t know if that’s the mindset of teams anymore - even the big market teams. We’ve seen in the past few years that even the Red Sox and Yankees are keeping their own in the fold, so to speak. For example, I don’t think there are 22 player for whom the Yankees would trade Hughes.
Five years ago? Absolutely. Now? Not so much.
29 - I’d probably put Adam Jones as number two in the M’s organization. Or Putz.
come on, no Moyer?
Personally, even given only two years left under contract, I’d move Johan up–he’s that good.
Also, I guess I missed that McCann had come on that much.
Looks like the future belongs to the D-Rays and Phillies. Dave, can you draw any conclusions about a Front Office based on this list? Or is 40 players across all of baseball just too small a sample?
Oh, and speaking of the Phillies:
Well, when you consider he’s only under contract through 2008, it makes sense. ‘08 is about when he’ll hit his peak, so his price should go up after that.
I figure 2008 is when his fastball will drop to about 60 mph, allowing him (a la Bugs Bunny) to strike out three batters with one pitch. But once his fastball drops much below 60, his changeup will be less effective since keeping it the ideal 12-15 mph below the fastball would probably mean it didn’t make it all the way to the plate.
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
If he were healthy - or proves to be healthy next year - how high does Francisco Liriano rate on this list?
This isn’t Liriano’s first injury - his track record is almost as bad as Harden’s. So, as good as he was, he’d probably still be in the 30s. When you’re talking about this group of guys - true franchise players, for the most part - you should be willing to trade a small difference in production for the certainty of health.
But I do have to echo a concern brought up before regarding Francoeur. The guy’s young, to be sure, but in his only full season he put up an OPS+ of 89.
And his OPS+ was 124 in a half season the year before. That counts too. The guy’s got serious power that doesn’t need any projection at all, and he’s got the tools to be a high average hitter to boot. Really, you guys could be making this same argument against Howie Kendrick, who is another average and power guy who doesn’t walk. But I think we’ve seen enough Garciaparra/Vlad/Pudge types who average 30 or 40 walks a year and are still MVP candidates thanks to their fantastic bat control and athleticism. I think Francoeuer and Kendrick fall into that class of player.
Keep in mind, Justin Morneau put up an OPS+ of 94 as a 24-year-old first baseman. If we’re not going to let that season dictate his true talent level, we can’t let Franceour’s 2006 be the overriding factor either.
Phat Albert seems like he is always fighting through a variety of injuries, often lower-body, and I’d be worried that he’s likely to miss more and more time as he ages. Did you consider that as a factor? Also, I have to ask, do you think we’ve had the final word on his true age?
Pujols nagging injuries played a role in him not being #1, but they aren’t serious enough for me to drop him behind Cabrera. And his age is legit.
I don’t know if that’s the mindset of teams anymore - even the big market teams. We’ve seen in the past few years that even the Red Sox and Yankees are keeping their own in the fold, so to speak. For example, I don’t think there are 22 player for whom the Yankees would trade Hughes.
I think you’re not seeing those type of elite prospects traded because teams aren’t willing to trade the types of players it would take to pry loose those elite talents. If Scott Kazmir or Brandon Webb was made available in trade, you wouldn’t see prospects being labeled untouchable.
29 - I’d probably put Adam Jones as number two in the M’s organization. Or Putz.
I think I could make an argument that it’s Carlos Triunfel. Which is both exciting and kind of sad.
Looks like the future belongs to the D-Rays and Phillies. Dave, can you draw any conclusions about a Front Office based on this list? Or is 40 players across all of baseball just too small a sample?
The Devil Rays future is so bright, you need shades to talk about them. This list doesn’t include potential all-stars B.J. Upton, Elijah Dukes, Evan Longoria, Reid Brignac, or Jeff Niemann, all of whom are knocking on the doorstep to Tropicana Field. Nor does it include such solid role players such as Rocco Baldelli, Akinori Iwamura, or James Shields who are already in the majors. It also excludes other solid pitching prospects such as Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Matt Walker.
The Devil Rays are absolutely loaded with talent, and their front office has done a fantastic job since Andrew Friedman took over. They’re the new Cleveland Indians.
Philly, not so much. They have Utley, Howard, Myers, and Hamels, but not much beyond that.
And no, I wouldn’t read too much into front office abilities through a list like this. There are better ways to evaluate management competency.
Jones? Putz? Triunfel? What about a certain Ignitor from South Kitsap?
Hughes but no Homer Bailey? Do you consider Hughes to be significantly superior to Bailey?
Ha 44, I was just going to say, no Bloomquist? You can’t put a price on grit.
Also, where’s Jeter? Isn’t he the best player in baseball? He’s on sportscenter all the time… (sarcasm, hard to read on internet)
Hughes but no Homer Bailey? Do you consider Hughes to be significantly superior to Bailey?
Yes. There’s a bigger gap there than most people think.
If Zumaya proved that he could start (180 ip per year), where would he be on this list?
If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle. Zumaya ain’t gonna start.
9 Delmon Young RF Tampa Bay
I happened to be poking around the pitch-by-pitch data for Young at Baseball-Reference today, and boy does he like to swing at the first pitch. On average, hitters swing at the first pitch of a plate appearance 26-27% of the time. Most hitters fall somewhere between 10%-40% in swinging at the first pitch. Last year, Young swung at the first pitch a jaw-dropping 64% of the time and has followed that up with 65% so far this year. Even Vlad is only up around 47% or so. I can’t find anything like it, even in a small sample size.
Obviously Young’s career-to-date line of .329/.345/.506 is something any team would take, so it’s not like this is killing him so far. I haven’t seen him play much, but it seems like he must be a really, really exceptional “bad-ball” hitter to make this approach work. Does he have the ability to make this work long-term, or are you counting on him becoming a little more patient as he ages?
If Zumaya proved that he could start (180 ip per year), where would he be on this list?
Well, he can’t start - his command is bad enough coming out of the pen, and a move to the rotation would blow up his arm with his max effort delivery. Even if the Tigers moved him to the rotation, I wouldn’t put him on the list, because he’d be a ticking time bomb waiting to get hurt.
He’s the kind of guy who belongs in the bullpen.
44
Which one!
Obviously Young’s career-to-date line of .329/.345/.506 is something any team would take, so it’s not like this is killing him so far. I haven’t seen him play much, but it seems like he must be a really, really exceptional “bad-ball” hitter to make this approach work. Does he have the ability to make this work long-term, or are you counting on him becoming a little more patient as he ages?
A little of both. He’s got upper tier plate coverage and power with his swing, so he can hit almost anything he decides to swing at with some authority. Even when he’s chasing bad pitches, he can put some juice behind it.
Eventually, he’s going to take more pitches. Almost everybody walks more as they get older, and there’s no reason to think he’ll be the exception. He’ll never be a huge walk guy, but between his average and power, he can draw 60-80 respect walks a year.
Ervin Santana: Just missed the list or nowhere close?
Half of the season cancelled due to weather so far… argh!
44
Which one!
Well, Ellison hasn’t ignited anything yet, so I’m pretty sure he missed the cut. But hey, give him a stolen base when we’re down by three in the ninth, and he’ll be damn folk hero too.
Ervin Santana: Just missed the list or nowhere close?
Nowhere close. There’s probably another 10 or 15 pitchers who would make this list before I got to him.
I’d like to see the Bizarro version of this list, ranking the 40 players with the worst trade value. Me thinks Zito tops that list.
Dave-
Somehow Mauer is still growing and there’s talk about him moving to first. Do you see this happening, when, and how would that effect his ranking?
Yea, that trade hasn’t worked out too well for Boston. I still like Beckett…
The Red Sox FO must disagree with you (I’m sure you can live with that), or they wouldn’t have given him the 3/$30m extension last year.
A name I thought might get some consideration was Stephen Drew. Valuable commodity?
#58 - I’d second that.
58 — Followed closely by Beltre and Sexson.
I third #58, and second #61 for Stephen Drew, though it seems like guys who haven’t played 1/2 a season in the MLBs were left off the list, except for Hughes, Kendrick, Gordon, and Dice-K
I think you’re not seeing those type of elite prospects traded because teams aren’t willing to trade the types of players it would take to pry loose those elite talents. If Scott Kazmir or Brandon Webb was made available in trade, you wouldn’t see prospects being labeled untouchable.
I’d agree with that assessment. This is a bit circular, but it’s precisely because most big-market teams have come around to the “build from within” idea that so few elite players are being traded. Look at the list above. By my rough count, every player on that list came up through his current team’s minor-league system (I think Hafner is the lone exception).
Even the big-market teams are valuing future over present more, meaning that their own prospects may have a subjective inflation in value that precludes teams from dealing them, even for a possibly better value.
In any event, I think the Sox would keep Gordon rather than take Howard, but that’s just me.
65- Bonderman, Ramirez, and Haren were also from other organizations.
The Red Sox FO must disagree with you (I’m sure you can live with that), or they wouldn’t have given him the 3/$30m extension last year.
You really don’t see how the trade could have been a bad one but they’d still want to extend Beckett’s contract?
A name I thought might get some consideration was Stephen Drew. Valuable commodity?
Yea, he is, but not quite enough to get on this list yet.
This is an interesting exercise. I’d love to see your take on the top ten players at each position (including LHP, RHP, and closer/reliever) — taking contract into consideration, or just on pure ability.
Re: Haren vs Harden. I had both of them on a fantasy roster the last couple of years, and believe me over the course of a season I got much more out of Haren than Harden. Through most of 2006 I couldn’t give Harden away. There’s a big differnce between fantasy and reality, of course, but there’s an even bigger difference between quality starts and the DL.
66 - Thanks.
69 — As were Santana and Kazmir.
That’s right - Santana was a Rule 5. In any event, each of those guys broke out into the bigs with their current teams (I’d argue that Haren didn’t “break out” until he got to Oakland).
By my rough count, every player on that list came up through his current team’s minor-league system (I think Hafner is the lone exception).
Other guys have covered some of the ones you missed, but here’s the full list:
Grady Sizemore (Montreal)
Johan Santana (Houston)
Scott Kazmir (NY Mets)
Jeremy Bonderman (Oakland)
Travis Hafner (Texas)
Hanley Ramirez (Boston)
Jason Bay (Montreal)
Dan Haren (St. Louis)
That’s 20% of the list.
I’m pleased to see you rank John Lackey higher than most people would, Dave. He gets overlooked for some reason, but he’s young, has awesome K/W rates, stays healthy and wins more or less consistently in the face of season-to-season team upheaval. Why he doesn’t have a higher profile in baseball is a mystery to me.
Matsuzaka didn’t exactly come up in the Red Sox system either.
Meaning 80% of those players were drafted or signed by the teams they now play for. And only one (Haren) saw anything close to significant playing time with his previous team.
The point remains.
I’m pleased to see you rank John Lackey higher than most people would, Dave.
Lackey and Haren are brothers of the non-sexy-out-machine fraternity. Before Brandon Webb won his Cy Young award and got thrown out for getting too much press, he was the headmaster of the group. Aaron Harang is this year’s pledge.
These guys outpitch their stuff, and since they don’t have dynamic breaking balls, they don’t get much play on Sportscenter, but you can have a great pitching staff with members of the NSOM frat.
Apropos of #76, Dave, would Mark Buerhle have made this list a year ago? How far has his stock fallen, and is there much chance he’ll get back to where he was?
Buehrle was #10 on the list I did 18 months ago, so yea, you can say his stock has tumbled. It looks like the big workload he sustained early in his career may have caught up to him, and now, he’s basically a #4 starter.
What is the chance that Mauer moves to first, when would that happen, and how would that effect his rank?
Dave, who are the 5 guys who are not currently on your list who you expect to be in the top-25 when you do this list again next year?
What is the chance that Mauer moves to first, when would that happen, and how would that effect his rank?
Considering the Twins have Justin Morneau, not good. He’d move to third or the outfield before he moved to first. And it would hurt his rating, though if he keeps hitting .360, not as much as you might think.
Dave, who are the 5 guys who are not currently on your list who you expect to be in the top-25 when you do this list again next year?
Well, I’m not sure I expect anyone not on the list to make that big of a jump, but some guys who certainly could include the just-missed kids Adam Loewen and Scott Olsen, Adam Miller and Andrew Miller, Arizona’s Chris Young (outfielder, not the pitcher), Stephen Drew, and Jered Weaver. Nick Adenhart would be another guy who could make a meteoric rise based on his talent, but the opportunity probably won’t be there for him, with the Angels being pretty deep in the rotation.
Heh - I have Hamels, Loewen, Young, and Stephen Drew in a keeper league of mine. The format is such that keepers are valued by draft position. For example, I drafted Loewen in the 23rd round this year. Next year, he’ll be a 22, the year after, 19, then 14, then 7.
Hamels, Loewen, Young, and Drew will all be teens or 20’s in the draft next year - Should I keep them?
Phil Hughes is (as far as I can see) the only player on this list who has yet to make an appearance in The Show. Any other prospects come close to making the list?
I don’t think Cabrera and Pujols should be as close as you make it sound. Yes, Pujols has had some minor injuries but he’s played an average of 156 games a season for 6 years with his lowest total being 143. He’s in the line-up 96% of the time!
In 6 seasons he’s finished 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st and 2nd for MVP.
In 6 seasons his team has gone to the playoffs 5 times, 2 world series appearances and 1 world series win. I know it takes a team effort to do that but his impact on the entire line-up can’t be measured with stats.
I’m not even going to get into some of the ridiculous numbers and records he’s already posted.
I like Cabrera and think he’s going to be a hall-of-famer. But in Pujols, we’re talking about possibly the greatest player of all-time, that’s just now entering the prime of his career.
Seems like a no brainer to me.
67: You have to give up value to get value back, unless you are dealing Heathcliff Slocumb.
Josh Beckett is 26 years old. Daisuke Matsuzaka is 26 years old. Jonathan Papelbon is 26 years old. Jon Lester is 23 years old. It looks to me as if the Red Sox are working to build a core of talented young pre-FA pitchers. When they flip Beckett for–I dunno–Todd Helton, then I’ll figure they’ve given up on the Beckett/Hanley trade.
Yeah, but is Albert Pujols a clubhouse leader? Is he gritty? Does he hustle? You failed to acknowledge those key points when talking about huge important factors like MVP voting and team success.
You have to give up value to get value back
Okay. You give me $100, and I’ll give you $50. You have to give to get, right?
Josh Beckett is 26 years old. Daisuke Matsuzaka is 26 years old. Jonathan Papelbon is 26 years old. Jon Lester is 23 years old. It looks to me as if the Red Sox are working to build a core of talented young pre-FA pitchers.
Hanley Ramirez is 22-years-old. They’d have been better off sticking him at shortstop and skipping the Julio Lugo signing, using that $9 million a year and the $10 million a year they wouldn’t be paying Beckett to go get a pitcher. You can buy a lot for $19 million, you know.
When they flip Beckett for–I dunno–Todd Helton, then I’ll figure they’ve given up on the Beckett/Hanley trade.
I don’t care if they’ve given up on the trade or not. That’s not the point. The point is they traded more talent away than they got back. All non-Red Sox homers can see that.
Can we maybe get a list of the ten players with the LEAST trade value?
It doesn’t have to be as detailed as this, just an off-the-cuff sort of thing.
I’d have to think Turbo’d be in that top ten.
This is my first time posting here…Love the site…I know the rankings are just for fun and stirring up a little debate, but did I miss something? Where’s Ichiro?
Ichiro’s in his walk year, which really eliminates most of his trade value, despite the fact that he’s awesome.
That’s my guess, at least, as to why he didn’t make this list.
The one name that jumped out at me is one that no one has brought up in 90 posts. Dice-K at #20? At 4/52 (is that about right) is that really such a great deal? OK, the free agent market on SP is a bit crazy, but is he a 6-7 win player?
I agree 100% with your thoughts concerning Hughes and Homer Bailey. Bailey has command issues. But I’m wondering if you forgot about Papelbon, I really got a thrill watching him clean up Pineiro’s mess in Texas the other night. He’s the real deal and someone I’d want in a high leverage situation-doesn’t that make up for the fewer innings?
Dave,
[Regarding Francoeur] “And his OPS+ was 124 in a half season the year before. That counts too.”
Of course it does, but I think his 650AB sample should get a bit more weight than his 250AM sample, don’t you? Let’s say his true-talent level (for his age) is somewhere in between. He’s still going to have to turn his potential and tools into production some time soon, or he simply won’t hang with the rest of this list.
“Really, you guys could be making this same argument against Howie Kendrick, who is another average and power guy who doesn’t walk.”
The difference is that Kendrick actually IS and average and power guy, whereas Francoeur is a potential average and power guy. Francoeur’s minor league career BA is .282, with an ISO power of .196. How do we even bring Kendrick into the conversation with his .361/.209 minor league numbers? Yes, park adjustments will eat away a lot of Kendrick’s power, but he’s still on another continent in terms of being an ‘average’ guy, and he’s still showing you good pop from the 2B position as opposed to a corner OF spot. To me, they’re not close.
Interesting to hear that Triunfel might be the next highest Mariner. Are scouts not impressed with Adam Jones’ plate discipline, or is it his CF defense that keep him below Carlos? Just curious; I’ve felt that Jones has been underrated in the prospect world, but maybe it’s not a case of Jones being underrated, it’s just Triunfel making people drool.
Where’s Doyle’s spot on the list?
However, he was just plunked on the left knee by Smoltz.
I think it’s Jones has the potential to be good (Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron), Triunfel has the potential to be great (Miguel Cabrera).
I know it’s not high enough to make the list, but what kind of trade value does Ichiro have, say, if the team entertained the idea of taking offers for him come July?
Dice-K at #20? At 4/52 (is that about right) is that really such a great deal?
It’s 6/52. So that’s $8.5 million a year, basically, for a 26-year-old frontline starting pitcher with a track record of being a workhorse. That’s a steal.
But I’m wondering if you forgot about Papelbon
There are zero relievers on this list for a reason.
Of course it does, but I think his 650AB sample should get a bit more weight than his 250AM sample, don’t you? Let’s say his true-talent level (for his age) is somewhere in between. He’s still going to have to turn his potential and tools into production some time soon, or he simply won’t hang with the rest of this list.
His weighted mean PECOTA projection for 2007 gives him a .288 average. Hitting .260 with power as a 22-year-old in the majors is impressive, walks or no walks. I have no problem projecting him as a .300/.350/.550 guy this year, and combined with his defense, that’s an all-star.
As you can tell by the placement of guys like Felix, Gordon, Hughes, Kendrick, and Markakis, I’m not that wrapped up in prior major league performance. Talent is talent, and Jeff Francouer has boatloads of it.
Interesting to hear that Triunfel might be the next highest Mariner. Are scouts not impressed with Adam Jones’ plate discipline, or is it his CF defense that keep him below Carlos? Just curious; I’ve felt that Jones has been underrated in the prospect world, but maybe it’s not a case of Jones being underrated, it’s just Triunfel making people drool.
Jones defense in center is still just okay, and his bat is never going to be awesome. It will be good for CF, but his upside is basically tied to his improvement with the glove. Triunfel’s bat is on a whole other level than Jones’ - he could make the majors as a DH and still be an asset. The bat is that good.
Maybe Ian Kinsler is in this discussion too? Or perhaps he’s going Chris Shelton on us this early in the season?
Dave: the big defense of the Beckett/Lowell for Ramirez/Sanchez trade is that prior to 2006, nobody had any idea if Ramirez was ever really going to pan out at all, let alone become a star player. As it happens, he got handed the Marlins’ starting SS job despite lackluster AAA performances and… proceeded to have a better year in the majors than any year he’d had before in the minors.
Now, that sort of thing happens with young tools monsters, and the risk of it happening is what the Sox assumed in order to get Beckett. The Marlins were smart to gamble and lucky to have won.
And if the Real Josh Beckett is the one in his last two starts, then the trade, even at this date, starts looking a lot better for Boston.
Kinsler turns 25 in June and has maxed out his skillset - he’s pretty close to a finished product, and that makes him a good, non-star player. I know Texas fans will hate me for this, but I’m not sold on Kinsler ever being better than a nice starter.
As it happens, he got handed the Marlins’ starting SS job despite lackluster AAA performances and… proceeded to have a better year in the majors than any year he’d had before in the minors.
I’m not indicting Theo for making a bad trade. I’m saying that, in retrospect, they overpaid. That’s it. That’s the whole point of this kind of list.
And if the Real Josh Beckett is the one in his last two starts, then the trade, even at this date, starts looking a lot better for Boston.
If you think a $10 million good starter is worth a $300,000 good shortstop, then I don’t know what to tell you.
I’m not indicting Theo for making a bad trade. I’m saying that, in retrospect, they overpaid. That’s it.
Well, that’s certainly true. I’m pretty religious about evaluating trades on the data available at the time, but if hindsight is explicitly legal, yeah, that trade sucked.
If you think a $10 million good starter is worth a $300,000 good shortstop, then I don’t know what to tell you.
Mm. That I’m still torn says something about the stupid price of quality starting pitching these days. That said, you’re obviously right, since even in this fallen age, $9,700,000 can buy a solid chunk of solid pitching.
You can buy a lot for $19 million, you know.
A lot? Lately you can buy a little less than 2 years of Gil Meche or a little more than 2 years of Jeff Weaver for $19m. Just as a for instance.
Boston bought the right to negotiate with a 26-year-old Daisuke for $53.1m. How many 26-year-old pitching stars are available in the FA marketplace? I think the Boston view is that premier pitchers won’t make it to free agency or will be overpriced when they get there, like Zito. That seemed to be your take in the offseason, as noted here: I’m just not interested in this crop of free agent pitchers. As a group, they suck, and they’re going to be paid like they’re actually good.
Boston seems to be willing to pi$$ away money for hitters, particularly at the shortstop position, as you well note, but they seem to view the FA marketplace through different lenses (to misquote Theo Epstein) for pitchers and hitters.
The point is they traded more talent away than they got back. All non-Red Sox homers can see that.
Like they can see that Papelbon’s nothing special?
When did you see that our FO gave more than they got back when they swapped Freddy Garcia for Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo, and Mike Morse? You’re no Seattle homer, but you defended that trade pretty vigorously a year later (”too soon to tell” and “what did the FO know at the time” were the basic ideas), but it’s so damned impossible to do a useful search on this site that I can’t show you your quote. (Google this site for Dave Garcia trade and you can enjoy looking for the needle in the haystack of 42 posts.)
If we go by PECOTA upside, Kinsler (who turns 25 in June) significantly beats out Weeks (who turns 25 in September), 154.6 to 90.6. Do you really think Weeks is that more projectible? I just don’t see it.
A lot? Lately you can buy a little less than 2 years of Gil Meche or a little more than 2 years of Jeff Weaver for $19m. Just as a for instance.
I didn’t say I was going to let you spend the money. If you want to light it on fire, that’s your problem.
Like they can see that Papelbon’s nothing special?
He’s a reliever, right? Just like I said, he ended up in the bullpen. Because he wasn’t a special pitching prospect. You can bring this up as many times as you want - it doesn’t change the fact that, in the end, I was right - Jonathan Papelbon was a reliever in the making, and you don’t trade good offensive prospects for future relievers.
If we go by PECOTA upside, Kinsler (who turns 25 in June) significantly beats out Weeks (who turns 25 in September), 154.6 to 90.6. Do you really think Weeks is that more projectible? I just don’t see it.
PECOTA hates Weeks. I think PECOTA is wrong.
Did I log onto the PI blog by mistake?
*checks URL*
Just how true is it though that any flamed out starting prospect is capable of being a 99th percentile high leverage reliever?
It’s true that relieving in general is the easiest job in baseball but just as the 10 runs/win relationship breaks down in high leverage situations, doesn’t also the usual value of a relief arm?
I don’t think that anyone is saying that having a legimimate relief ace (not going to use the C-word) on your staff isn’t valuable.
I think Dave’s just saying that the inherent lower value of a reliever (partly due to adding less value to your team in and of themselves, partly due to the lesser scarcity of relievers compared to starters and position players) is enough of a difference that none of them merit a mention in the top 40 highest trade value players in all of baseball.
Which doesn’t really seem to be that unreasonable, to me. A dominant starter or star position player is just more valuable than even the best reliever, whether it’s Papelbon or Putz.
Leverage belongs to the innings, not the player. When evaluating trade value, you look at talent level, which is leverage independant. Yes, a relief ace is valuable, but you don’t trade for value - you trade for skills.
By the way, I just watched Jeff Francoeur draw his second walk of the year. He’s a hack, but he’s not a lost cause.
If you think a $10 million good starter is worth a $300,000 good shortstop
I didn’t take that as exactly the point, from reading the post — rather that a $10 million good starter comes a lot closer to being worth a $300,000 good shortstop than does a $10 million bad starter.
But this isn’t a list of guys who are more valuable than Jeff Weaver. That would be a really, really long list.
Yes, let’s be fair. Let’s talk about pitchers more valuable than Carl Pavano.
This is how I think of who the best players in baseball are.
Remember about Bonderman though that he was drafted by the A’s out of high school and Billy Beane then fired his staff because they drafted a flamethrowing highschool student. It’s in Moneyball, gosh don’t you read. So clearly Billy Beane hated Bonderman and then tried to salvage what he could.
Dave, do you still like Aybar better than Kendrick in the next five or six years? Last summer you went so far as to project Aybar > Reyes as I recall.
I can’t let you get away with this one.
From a pure scouting standpoint, Cano is compared consistently to Rod Carew. His wrists are explosive, he can control the bat in ways that Francoeur, because of the length to his swing, will never approach. I don’t see the comparison, and hearing it really struck a nerve. I agree with others, Franceur has been a .280 guy. Can he hit .300 in time? I’m confident you are correct. Can he hit .330+? Not unless he starts being a whole lot more patient. His swing is too long to be a productive two-strike hitter.
I was surprised to see Bedard on this list. I like the guy and I think he was a bit unlucky with some injuries early in his career. But it seems like no one talks about him much as an elite pitcher. Perhaps he’s part of that fraternity you mention along with Haren and Lackey.
case in point… Cano’s average after first pitch strike is .288, Francoeur is at .219. With two strikes, Cano is at .230, Franceour is at .146. That’s bat control. Francoeur’s numbers are not indicative of an ability to hit for high average just yet.
These lists are always great fun. I can’t believe no one has mentioned Ryan Zimmerman yet. At #29 he’s behind Nick Markakis (#27), Philip Hughes (#23), and Howie Kendrick (#21).
Clearly he’s inferior to Alex Gordon/David Wright, but Ryan Zimmerman means getting 5 years of GG defense @ 3rd or possibly average defense at SS to go with .287/.351/.471 (111 OPS+) in an extreme pitchers park @ age 21. His 2007 PECOTA is .299/.360/.501
Markakis is a corner OF who is ten months older than Zimmerman. His OPS+ was 106 @ age 22.
Philip Hughes is the consensus best pitching prospect (i.e. not in the majors). You get 6-6.5 years of service from him, this is his age 21 season, and he’s never thrown more than 146 innings in a season. If he’s healthy for those years he’s more valuable than Zimmerman, but I don’t think a sober Jim Bowden trades Zimmerman for Hughes, even given his rotation now. (Yes, I realize that’s a reach).
Howie Kendrick is a year older than Zimmerman. In 267 MLB at-bats, he hit .285/.314/.416 @ age 22. If you give him +.30 BA he’s a .315/.344/.446. PECOTA has him at .305/.339/.487. Kendrick is an average fielding 2B. If he is, I can’t see taking Kendrick over Zimmerman. Kendrick may be the 2nd best 2B, but he’s not better than the third best 3B (Miguel Cabrera is a “3B”).
Zimmerman is inferior to Alex Gordon, but clearly superior now to Nick Markakis, likely superior to Kendrick, and a much less risky pick than Philip Hughes.
I’m a bit surprised that Morneau misses the cut behind Fielder and Berkman. Must be contract uncertainty, Morneau is probably looking for Berkman-type money, and Fielder has similar potential with bigger power potential and a few years to give…? Thanks for the list, it’s great fun.
How close was Daniel Cabrera to making the cut? He’s been a far superior pitcher since the second half of last season, albeit with one fewer year under club control.
In my opinion it’s way too soon judge the Beckett trade, but the guy won 16 games last season and reached career high in innings all while trying to move from the NL to the AL East. Secondly, that trade was consummated when Epstein was on his hiatus as GM, so you can’t lay it at his feet, even if it were a failure (which it’s not). Thirdly, Beckett seems to be learning how to mix up his pitches if his first two starts are any indication and if that’s the case, watch out. He will definitely win 18-20 games this year. How many guys are there in this day who approach 20 wins. Not many. Fourthly, I would trade a position player for a quality starter any day of the week and I think over the life of the contract, you will find that Beckett more than earns his money and demonstrates his trade value (especially given his age and the value of starting pitchers in the current market). Finally, given that value of starting pitching, where Gil Meche is worth $55M over five years, the real question isn’t whether trading Hanley Ramirez (and his $300K salary) was a bad idea, but is Beckett a value at his current price and I think he definitely is.
Dave, do you still like Aybar better than Kendrick in the next five or six years? Last summer you went so far as to project Aybar > Reyes as I recall.
I’ve never projected Aybar ahead of Kendrick. I still like Aybar quite a bit, but he’s not Howie Kendrick or Jose Reyes. He’s got a lot of talent, but I’ve never put him in that class of player.
From a pure scouting standpoint, Cano is compared consistently to Rod Carew.
No he’s not. I’ve never heard that comparison once in my life, and I talk to a lot of scouts.
His wrists are explosive, he can control the bat in ways that Francoeur, because of the length to his swing, will never approach. I don’t see the comparison, and hearing it really struck a nerve. I agree with others, Franceur has been a .280 guy. Can he hit .300 in time? I’m confident you are correct. Can he hit .330+? Not unless he starts being a whole lot more patient. His swing is too long to be a productive two-strike hitter.
Cano’s not a .330+ hitter either. Just like Howard, 2006 was his career year.
These lists are always great fun. I can’t believe no one has mentioned Ryan Zimmerman yet. At #29 he’s behind Nick Markakis (#27), Philip Hughes (#23), and Howie Kendrick (#21).
Yep - he’s not as good as any of those three players.
Markakis is a corner OF who is ten months older than Zimmerman. His OPS+ was 106 @ age 22.
Felix’s ERA+ last year was 96, and he’s #1 on the list.
Philip Hughes is the consensus best pitching prospect (i.e. not in the majors). You get 6-6.5 years of service from him, this is his age 21 season, and he’s never thrown more than 146 innings in a season. If he’s healthy for those years he’s more valuable than Zimmerman, but I don’t think a sober Jim Bowden trades Zimmerman for Hughes, even given his rotation now. (Yes, I realize that’s a reach).
An ace pitcher is better than an above average third baseman. Hughes is an ace pitcher just spinning his wheels in the minors until the Yankees get around to calling him up. He’s not a pitching prospect anymore - he’s a major league pitcher who just doesn’t happen to be on a major league staff.
Howie Kendrick is a year older than Zimmerman. In 267 MLB at-bats, he hit .285/.314/.416 @ age 22. If you give him +.30 BA he’s a .315/.344/.446. PECOTA has him at .305/.339/.487. Kendrick is an average fielding 2B. If he is, I can’t see taking Kendrick over Zimmerman. Kendrick may be the 2nd best 2B, but he’s not better than the third best 3B (Miguel Cabrera is a “3B”).
I care a lot less about last year’s performances than you do.
Zimmerman is inferior to Alex Gordon, but clearly superior now to Nick Markakis, likely superior to Kendrick, and a much less risky pick than Philip Hughes.
He’s not clearly superior to Markakis, and isn’t superior to Kendrick or Hughes.
How close was Daniel Cabrera to making the cut? He’s been a far superior pitcher since the second half of last season, albeit with one fewer year under club control.
He’d be in the next group of 5-10 arms fighting for spots, but he wasn’t given a whole lot of consideration. His mechanics aren’t good and I doubt he’ll ever get his command totally under control.
(Beckett) will definitely win 18-20 games this year.
Nobody will definitely win 18-20 games this year.
Fourthly, I would trade a position player for a quality starter any day of the week and I think over the life of the contract, you will find that Beckett more than earns his money and demonstrates his trade value (especially given his age and the value of starting pitchers in the current market).
You’d lose. A lot.
Finally, given that value of starting pitching, where Gil Meche is worth $55M over five years, the real question isn’t whether trading Hanley Ramirez (and his $300K salary) was a bad idea, but is Beckett a value at his current price and I think he definitely is.
No, in a discussion about trade value, the real question is whether Hanley Ramirez has more value than Josh Beckett. He does - that’s not even arguable. We’re not talking about evaluating Theo as a GM. We’re talking about the fact that Hanley Ramirez is a more valuable property than Josh Beckett. If you can’t see that, I can’t help you.
I think it is very interesting rankings overall to consider. I like them mostly. I ask if you are also factoring the ability to market players as well? When you think of baseball commonly certain players over the history of the game will stand out because of their ability to be marketed along with their skill. This is true in many sports. I think this needs to taken into a factor for trade value of a player.
Consider a player like Jeter (even with the huge contracts and age), his marketability for a team would be monsterous. Or Dontrelle Willis for example. He appeals to people of all races, he is easily one of the “faces” of MLB. Any team that trades for him would make him the face of their franchise if he was traded. Where a player like Pujols often is less in the spotlight compared to a player like Big Pappi. Just something I thought I would toss out there.
As for the Beckett/Hanley deal. May I add in that folks are forgetting 4 other factors in the trade?
1. Aninbal Sanchez - A top flight young pitcher that shows 4+ pitches and alot of promise for a young pitcher. He has the potential to become a very good number 2 starter and perhaps even a number 1 in time. Not to mention his no hitter and sun 2.5 starting ERA last year and great BAA. He has been “solid” in both of his outtings this year, when some tough breaks but is 2-0.
2. Delgado and Garcia - Both are flame thrower type of Relief pitchers that have good potentials for setting up and already into AA and should be in the majors shortly to join the other two from that trade. One of them was even for now turned into a starting pitcher to stretch his abilities. If he turns into a solid starter (I believe it was delgado), then Florida might get 2 young good starters, a Setup/closer and a 5 tool SS out of the trade of Josh Beckett.
3. Mike Lowell was a huge contract for the marlins (not for boston), that was traded to drop the salary. He was a negative upon the trade not an addition. Florida tried to move AJ Burnett with him the year before and decided upon trading Beckett just to move that contract. Along with him they were able to attach the horrible contract for mota. This is around 22 million dollars of “dead money” that was dumped in the deal. This should be considered into any consideration for the trade as a positive the marlins were able to dump this dead weight.
4. The needs and depth of both teams. Where the Red Sox had a SS at the current time, they did end up needing one from externally because of their lack of a minor league SS for the future from trading Ramirez. Where on the counter point the marlins had a replacement for Josh Beckett in Josh Johnson already sitting there for the rotation. Coupled with Scott Olsen another young high potential (projectable 2-3 each of them a rotation). This made moving Beckett, an injury prone player due for a huge payday soon, a bonus to be done. Even if it was a PR hit not that Loria cares with his track record for destroying teams.
Just thought I would toss that out there for my two cents for it as a rare marlins season ticket holder.
Just to clarify, I said, if he continues to mix up his pitches as he did for the first couple of games this year, he will definitely win 18-20 games. He won 16 last year simply trying to blow his fast ball by everyone. That might have worked in the NL, but not in the AL East.
As for position player/starting pitcher argument, I think you will find that most baseball executives consider starting pitching (especially a potential ace like Beckett) to be much more difficult to develop and hence more valuable.
As for not being able to help me, we’re simply having a discussion here. There are no right or wrong answers. Just opinions and I would say that yours is no more valid than anyone else’s here.
As for the list, I’m little surprised Papelbon isn’t on there and Hughes who has never pitched an inning of major league ball is.
Just to clarify, I said, if he continues to mix up his pitches as he did for the first couple of games this year, he will definitely win 18-20 games. He won 16 last year simply trying to blow his fast ball by everyone. That might have worked in the NL, but not in the AL East.
If Felix continues to pitch like this, he’ll go 35-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Whee! Isn’t this fun?
As for position player/starting pitcher argument, I think you will find that most baseball executives consider starting pitching (especially a potential ace like Beckett) to be much more difficult to develop and hence more valuable.
Difficult to develop and more valuable don’t go hand in hand. Most MLB executives also understand the high rate of attrition among pitcher and the safety of position players, which is why a majority of every team’s payroll is spent on position players and not the pitching staff.
As for not being able to help me, we’re simply having a discussion here. There are no right or wrong answers. Just opinions and I would say that yours is no more valid than anyone else’s here.
I completely reject the concept that all opinions are equally valid. It’s never been true, and it never will be.
As for the list, I’m little surprised Papelbon isn’t on there and Hughes who has never pitched an inning of major league ball is.
You’re a Red Sox fan. Hughes is better.
#88 –
Jason Kendall has to be at or near the top of the list of players with the LEAST trade value.
I completely reject the concept that all opinions are equally valid. It’s never been true, and it never will be.
I thought this was about having a little fun with a list of players, but it’s obviously about feeding your ego.
You’re a Red Sox fan. Hughes is better.
The fact that I’m a Red Sox fan is completely irrelevant. Papelbon was a lights-out closer last year, not an arguable point (even for you. Hughes has lots of potential, but hasn’t thrown a pitch at the major league level. Only after he actually pitches in the majors, and has success can you make a judgment.
I thought this was about having a little fun with a list of players, but it’s obviously about feeding your ego.
Some people know more about topics than others. Meteorologists know more about weather. Scientists know more about genetics. Mechanics know more about cars. Doctors know more about health.
The whole “all opinions are equal” concept just isn’t true. If you think that I’m an arrogant punk for not giving all opinions the same value, fine. I think its basic common sense.
The fact that I’m a Red Sox fan is completely irrelevant.
Right. You’re just lobbying for Beckett and Papelbon out of your objective neutrality.
Papelbon was a lights-out closer last year, not an arguable point.
There are no relievers on this list for a reason.
Hughes has lots of potential, but hasn’t thrown a pitch at the major league level. Only after he actually pitches in the majors, and has success can you make a judgment.
Actually, I can make that judgment before he pitches in the majors. So can major league executives. It’s why all minor leaguers aren’t valued equally.
If you are going to rank Felix #1, there is no way you can rank the other young pitchers so low. Kazmir 11th? Bonderman 16th? Cain, Verlander, Hamels, Bedard, and Haren not even in the top 25? No way Felix is that much better than all those guys in trade value. Maybe I’m crazy, but this seems like a huge knee jerk reaction. I mean come on, 96 ERA+ is nothing to get this excited about. He is a beast, we all know this.
Lets look at last years ERA+ for the 8 guys.
Kazmir - 139
Bonderman - 109
Verlander - 122
Cain - 109
Hamels - 113
Bedard - 119
Haren - 110
Felix - 96
I understand he is younger than these guys and have a higher ceiling. I understand that pitching is more valuable than hitting. But if you are going to construct this list and have Felix at a minimum of 10 players ahead of this guy, questions must be asked. Cabrera should be #1 without a doubt. The kid is extremely young, relatively cheap, still developing, has proven himself on the big league stage, and like Felix is of to a monstrous start.
Once again, I don’t care that much about last year’s performance. You can’t trade for last year. Felix is better than all those guys, and significantly so.
If Papelbon goes on, the Putz has to as well, since he has a reasonable contract and was even better than Papelbon last year, and both have injury questions too. As for Hughes, there is plenty of performance history to judge him on, as well as pure scouting. I don’t know enough about it to know for myself, but I know enough to trust that others who do this more and better than I do can make these judgements, and it isn’t hard to convince me that a ton of minor league pitchers are more valuable than Papelbon.
The only thing that gives Papelbon inflated trade value is the weird notion that he is the perfect pitcher sent from god to pitch untouched ninth innings. So if you consider completely irrational trade value that some GM’s might perceive, then yeah, maybe he gets bumped way up and into the top 40.
Some people know more about topics than others.
I’ll grant you that’s true when discussing science, but we are talking about a hypothetical list of players and their trade value. This is baseball, Dave, not rocket science. These points are completely arguable.
Right. You’re just lobbying for Beckett and Papelbon out of your objective neutrality.
Actually I wasn’t lobbying for Beckett. I was merely stating that the trade had more value for the Sox than you felt it did. As for Papelbon, you show me how many 26 year old lights-out closers there are around who are pre-arbitration to-boot.
Actually, I can make that judgment before he pitches in the majors. So can major league executives. It’s why all minor leaguers aren’t valued equally.
Sure you can, but the road to the majors is littered with can’t miss guys. I’m not saying Hughes won’t be the real deal. I can’t say. I’ve never seen him pitch. I’m just saying that somebody who has the value of Papelbon to a team (much like Rivera does to the Yanks) belongs on a list like this before a kid who hasn’t proved a thing yet.
I’ll grant you that’s true when discussing science, but we are talking about a hypothetical list of players and their trade value. This is baseball, Dave, not rocket science. These points are completely arguable.
Pujols or Cabrera at #2 is arguable. Sizemore or Mauer at #5 is arguable. Verlander or Myers is arguable.
Beckett or Hanley? Not arguable. There’s a vast gulf in value between the two. It’s not even close.
Actually I wasn’t lobbying for Beckett. I was merely stating that the trade had more value for the Sox than you felt it did. As for Papelbon, you show me how many 26 year old lights-out closers there are around who are pre-arbitration to-boot.
I like Beckett - I’ve already said that. I wasn’t railing the Sox for making the trade. I was simply pointing out the obvious - in retrospect, they’d have been better had they kept Hanley Ramirez.
And again, there are zero relievers on this list for a reason.
Sure you can, but the road to the majors is littered with can’t miss guys. I’m not saying Hughes won’t be the real deal. I can’t say. I’ve never seen him pitch. I’m just saying that somebody who has the value of Papelbon to a team (much like Rivera does to the Yanks) belongs on a list like this before a kid who hasn’t proved a thing yet.
The Yankees wouldn’t trade Hughes for Papelbon. The Red Sox would trade Papelbon for Hughes. I’m certain of both of those statements.
MLB teams value starting pitchers much, much higher than they value relievers. For a reason.
Putz = Papelbon is not true at all. Papelbon had the highest VORP among closers last season. Putz came in at 6th.
rsmiller510 said:
April 13th, 2007 at 7:05 am
Just to clarify, I said, if he continues to mix up his pitches as he did for the first couple of games this year, he will definitely win 18-20 games. He won 16 last year simply trying to blow his fast ball by everyone. That might have worked in the NL, but not in the AL East.
May I ask why if he does win 18 wins it means much? Steve Traschel last year won 16 games. He was a horrible pitcher and still is for Baltimore. Last year 16 games were in the chart for Marquis. Whom is a horrible pitcher as well. I would be more interested to see Josh get his Hr/9 down. Get his Whip back in order as well. I think he could have a break out year and I think he easily could be the 2nd best pitcher in the AL East (Halladay when Healthy is by far the best).
As for the arguement against Papelbon, a closer is the most over-rated position in MLB. Most true “saves” come in the 7th or 8th often when the game is on the line in key situations and are now marketed down as holds. Perhaps a bit of irony about how menche makes more then most elite closers or the fact most “elite” closers are failed starters.
Putz = Papelbon is not true at all. Papelbon had the highest VORP among closers last season. Putz came in at 6th.
VORP is a poor measure of pitching ability.
We’ve had the Papelbon/Putz discussion here several times. Basically, if you want to like Papelbon’s 06 season more than J.J.’s ‘06 season, you have to believe that he has some kind of preternatural ability to strand runners, as his 92.4 LOB% is the only thing he did better than J.J. last year. He put guys on base and then left them there. If you think thats a repeatable skill, then you can say Papelbon was better.
They’re both relief aces. Papelbon is more valuable because he’s younger and cheaper, but Putz is the example of why relievers aren’t as valuable as people think. They just aren’t that hard to find.
You don’t care about last season? What kind of a statement is that? You think GMs are going to make a trade based on 2 starts? Thats insanity. Felix is significantly better than those pitchers? He has potential to be sure, but what evidence do you have that i don’t that shows he will live up to that potential. I see a list of kids and Felix has so far has done the worse. Plus, if you are going by that, why is Cabrera still lower than Felix? He currently has a higher VORP. I love the site, but come on. This is SO bias its crazy. I really can’t believe you said “I don’t care that much about last year’s performance. You can’t trade for last year.” that is sooooooooo stupid.
The only thing that gives Papelbon inflated trade value is the weird notion that he is the perfect pitcher sent from god to pitch untouched ninth innings. So if you consider completely irrational trade value that some GM’s might perceive, then yeah, maybe he gets bumped way up and into the top 40.
Only because closers tend to be difference makers, especially in a short series. In 1996 when the Yankees had Rivera setting up Wettland, if you didn’t get to the starter by the sixth inning, the game was essentially over. Rivera took over after that and controls the end of games to this day. If you have a guy like that, you can ride him to a championship. The Sox did it with Keith Foulke in 2004 and the White Sox did it with Bobby Jenks in 2005.
I’m not basing it on two starts or this year’s VORP. I’m basing it on talent evaluations, which takes a player’s full career (both major and minor league), as well as his physical abilities, and my interpretations of their value into play.
This isn’t a VORP or ERA+ list. That’s not how you evaluate talent. You don’t tr