MLB Anti-Trade Value
As requested by multiple people in the comments of the MLB Trade Value post, here’s the Bizarro version. Instead of going forty deep, I’m only going to list what I consider to be the ten players with the least trade value in major league baseball. Obviously, on this kind of list, the contract is going to play a huge role – there are some good players who are just greatly overpaid, and their price/performance ratio is so far out of whack that they’re nearly impossible to even give away. These guys have significant negative trade value. For the sake of making this an interesting list, I excluded any player in the last year of their contract – otherwise it would just be a list of injured pitchers who are making some amount of money to not pitch this year. So guys like Kerry Wood, Kris Benson, and Matt Clement aren’t eligible.
Anyways, without further ado, here’s the top ten:
1. Mike Hampton, LHP, Atlanta
The Braves are paying Mike Hampton $14.5 million to not throw a pitch this season. They’ll pay him $15 million next year, and then owe him a $6 million buyout on his 2009 option. That’s $35.5 million for the hope that he strings together some mediocre innings in 2008 before he comes off the books. Ouch.
2. Garret Anderson, OF, Anaheim
Garret Anderson has been a below average major league regular since 2004, as his various injuries have zapped his power and his secondary skills have never been up to par. Now that he’s losing his bat speed at age 35 and he can barely play defense anymore, he’s a guy who belongs on the bench. Unfortunately for the Angels, they owe him $11.6 million this year, $12 million next year, and then a $3 million buyout of his 2009 contract. $26 million for two years of a bad player? Yikes.
3. Barry Zito, LHP, San Francisco
He’s not off to a strong start with the Giants, only reinforcing the general belief that he’s a middle of the rotation pitcher and a shell of his former Cy Young self. The ridiculous 7 year, $126 million contract he signed this offseason looked bad when it was signed, and there’s no reason to think any better of it now. There’s not a team in baseball that would claim Zito right now were he to land on waivers.
4. Michael Young, SS, Texas
In general, I think Rangers GM Jon Daniels is a smart guy. However, the extension he just gave Michael Young was the kind of move that can sink a franchise. I know Young is beloved in Arlington as the heart and soul of the franchise, and keeping him around is a move the fans wanted to see. But the problem is that Young just isn’t that good, and they’ll be paying him $16 million per season from 2009 to 2013, his age 32 through 36 seasons. His defense has already degraded to the point that he shouldn’t be playing shortstop, and his offense is consistently overrated. By the time the extension kicks in, he’s going to be a below average starter, and the Rangers will be throwing large amounts of money at a utility player by the time it ends.
5. Magglio Ordonez, OF, Detroit
Like Zito, Ordonez is a better than average player who isn’t as good as his reputation, and is inexplicably being paid like an MVP candidate. He’s basically been the same player the last three years, putting up slightly better than league average offensive numbers while playing mediocre to poor defense and having a hard time staying on the field. In terms of performance, he’s about as average as it gets. For the right to show off his averageness, the Tigers will pay him $12 million this year, $15 million next year, $18 million (!) in 2009, and then have a $15 million option in 2010 with a $3 million buyout that becomes guaranteed with certain playing time incentives. They’re out a minimum of $48 million for the next three years, and it could turn into $63 million over four years if he stays healthy. For that kind of money, you need to get an awful lot more than Magglio Ordonez offers in return.
6. Randy Winn, OF, San Francisco
Randy Winn’s been a generally underrated player for most of his career, and he only makes $4 million this season. So why is he on this list? Because after a disappointing 2006 season, he’s off to a miserable start to his 2007 campaign and is on a short leash before Todd Linden starts eating into his playing time. With a decent chance to be a fourth outfielder by the end of the year, the Giants can’t be looking forward to paying him $8 million next year and $8.25 million in 2009. He also has a full no trade clause this year, but it doesn’t matter much, because the Giants couldn’t give him away if they tried.
7. Jason Varitek, C, Boston
Yea, he’s the captain, the emotional leader of the Red Sox, and a beloved player in Fenway. He’s also done as a major league hitter. His batspeed is gone, his catch-and-throw skills have diminished, and he’s about as effective as the average major league backup catcher. He’s also due $8 million this year and next year before his contract expires. $16 million might be a drop in the hat for the Red Sox, but for most teams, it’s a pretty large chunk of change to have to eat for a guy who is getting paid for what he did two years ago.
8. Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado
Todd Helton’s still a very good baseball player. He hasn’t posted an OBP under .400 since 1999, and even with a drop in power, he’s still sustaining his production through a high average and a lot of walks, as well as being one of the better defensive first baseman around. The problem, however, is that Todd Helton is under contract through 2084. Okay, not quite, but the Rockies are paying him $16.7 million through 2010, then owe him $19.1 million in 2011, and have a $23 million club option with a $4.3 million buyout for 2012. He also has a full no-trade clause that he’s exercising, making it tough for the Rockies to move him even if they’re willing to eat a huge chunk of his remaining contract. He’s a near all-star player right now, and he could even be worth something close to his 2007 salary, but the back problems all but guarantee that the power isn’t coming back, and as a 33-year-old who is under contract for another 5 years at escalating paydays, the contract is an albatross.
9. Gil Meche, RHP, Kansas City
Whether you think the market has changed and the cost of pitching is only going to continue to explode or not, the fact remains that Gil Meche is still a very mediocre pitcher, and he’s due $55 million through 2011. That kind of money may not buy an ace anymore, but it should sure buy a lot more than Gil Meche.
10. B.J. Ryan, LHP, Toronto
B.J. Ryan has been one of the best closers in baseball the past two years, and the Blue Jays have used his arm to get a lot of high leverage outs late in games. The problem, however, is that relievers have notoriously short shelf-lives, and after blowing two saves where his mechanics looked terrible, Ryan has landed on the DL and is headed for an MRI on his shoulder. Uh oh. The fact that he’s due $39 million over the next four years, and is now looking like damaged goods, makes him a very risky proposition. If the MRI comes out clean and he can return to form, he’ll regain his value, but right now, you’d have a hard time finding a team who would want to bank that kind of money on him being healthy.
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No Jason Giambi? 42.5 million for the next two years with a 22 million option for 2009 ($5 million buyout) for a DH? An above average hitter? Yes. But who would trade for that contract?
I have a feeling that had this been written two years ago, a certain Mariners first baseman would have been included as well.
As it is, whoo hoo! No Mariners in the bottom 10!
DH or not, Giambi was still an awesome hitter the last two years, putting up an OPS+ of 156 in 2005 and 154 last year. He’s way better than “an above average hitter”, and his monstrous offensive performance at least gets him close to the $21 million mark. He might not be a bargain, but he’s not an albatross.
Wouldn’t Sexson come close to being on this list, anyway? He’s still under contract through 2008.
How do you view A.J. Burnett, Dave?
The Giants are my one true baseball love.
Why do they hurt me so?
I guess I’m biased in that I always feel like he’s going to fall off the cliff any day now.
I think Burnett still has some potential. Among Toronto’s contracts I might think Vernon Wells has a worse one.
In terms of little or no value (with no contract considerations), I was looking at games played yesterday and noticed that Chad Durbin, Royce Clayton and Omar Infante still occasionally start on Major League teams. How is this possible? Were they ever good enough? Looking at their year to year stats it’s hard to come up with a supporting argument.
How close was Vidro to making the list?
Hmm, Jose Vidro has some serious anti-trade value, as he’s going to make close to what Randy Winn will make over both of their contracts for about the same length of time, AND he has no real defensive position- at least Winn can play OF. I’d thus argue Vidro’s anti-trade value is higher.
Even if he’s not a total crapfest like he’s been the first couple weeks, Vidro basically should be fighting with the AAAA first basemen/DH’s for playing time on a handful of AL teams, or be an NL PH/backup- and they would make MLB minimums, unlike Vidro would before 2010. There’s no reason ANY major league team would want that.
How close was Vidro to making the list?
Pretty close. He’d be in the 11-15 range if I expanded it further.
Hmm, Jose Vidro has some serious anti-trade value, as he’s going to make close to what Randy Winn will make over both of their contracts for about the same length of time, AND he has no real defensive position- at least Winn can play OF. I’d thus argue Vidro’s anti-trade value is higher.
Vidro is due $12 million over the next two years, and the buyout for 2009 is probably in the $1 million range or so. That’s $13 million for two years. Winn is due $20 million over the next three years.
The Nats are paying about 25% of Vidro’s salary too.
Hmm, says it’s a vesting option here:
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/seattle-mariners.html
Now, granted, 4 million of his contract comes from Washington, but still, ugh.
Plus there’s a limited no-trade clause. Awesome.
Of course, you can get around it by not playing him, but the team doesn’t seem all that interested in doing that yet.
It’s the same deal as with Everett last year – if he’s playing as bad as we expect him to, the option won’t vest.
On Randy Winn:
Unless of course, they tried to move him for Mags or Garrett Anderson. Hehe!
Clayton’s in Toronto. They’re carrying 3 inadequate shortstops – I suspect they’re doing so in the hopes that they can ride one hot bat after another until the end of the season. So far Royce is the hot bat.
Yes, a bizarro list!
I’m somewhat surprised Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee didn’t make the top ten.
I’m somewhat surprised Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee didn’t make the top ten.
They’d both be in the next group. Soriano’s talented enough to have a couple good years before that contract gets really ugly, and since a lot of GMs still love that power/speed skillset, the Cubs could move him without eating too much of the money. Same deal for Lee, who is considered a run producer by a lot of teams – his flaws aren’t as evident to most organizations as the other guys on this list.
Ken Griffey Jr?
Considering all the deferred money that’s got to be one of the worse value for dollar contracts signed in some time.
Hmm, yea, I forget Jr’s still under contract for the next couple of years. He belongs on the list. Put him up between Ordonez and Winn and slide everyone from 6-10 down a spot.
How close was Sexson to the top ten. I agree about Jr. absolutely undtradeable.
Nice, Dave. I must say, I’ve never been so happy not to see an Mariner in the top 10. I must also say that I am glad we didn’t win the Zito war (and that we didn’t land some of the other guys that were discussed over the last couple of years – Clement, for instance).
And, it was probably implied, but the Helton contract isn’t just bad from an even playing field perspective (i.e., no team should be happy to be in the Rockies’ position long-term), but the albatross only gets larger when you remind yourself that that Rockies don’t spend money (25/30 or something like that?). As long as Helton – a fan favorite – is producing, you won’t hear too much clamor. During his slumps, however, the drum beat gets much louder, and not just on talk radio. When the rumor mill started this summer, average Joe fan actually got excited about what the Rockies might get in return. That tells you somehing when Helton used to be to the Rockies what Joe Sakic is to the Avalanche.
Griffey’s name has no business on this list. He is still a big box office draw and could easily be dealt to an AL team to play DH. Part of trade Value has to consider the players popularity.
#22 – it won’t stop some dork from proposing Jr.’s return to the M’s during the offseason, though.
*summer* should be “winter” . . .
1998 Mark McGwire and 1998 Sammy Sosa were “big box office draws”. 2007 Ken Griffey, Jr. is not.
It’s been years since Griffey was a genuine box-office draw (i.e., made fans come to the ballpark who would otherwise have stayed home). Not even the Mariners are going to trade for his famous name at that price and production, and if they did, it would help their attendance for maybe two weeks, or a month if he has a hot streak when he got here.
Is Jr still a big draw? He was the biggest thing in baseball when I arrived in the US in early 1998; I can’t think of anyone still playing who’s star has fallen so far.
Okay, Sammy Sosa, but he doesn’t have an albatross contract.
since I’ve been a nitpicker about such in the recent past:
“whose star has fallen so far”
I think I would rather pay Veritek $16M over two years than Matthews Jr. $55M over five.
31 – agreed. Though I suppose Matthews might be more tradeable considering the interest he drew from a number of teams, and he plays a decent CF. The HGH bit might have sunk all his value though.
Especially considering the steroids cloud over Gary’s head.
24. No team in their right mind would deal for Jr. unless Cincy paid every cent of his deferred money, which is drawn out to something ridiculous like 2024.
He’s also nowhere near the gate draw he was earlier in his career … missing from 50-90 games the last 6 years will do that.
The deffered money is a sunk cost and would not be involved in a deal…They could easily trade him without any deferred money being involved.
Despite the fact that you’re correct about the deferred money, you’re nuts if you think any team would trade for Jr to DH. Frank Thomas got 2 years, $18 million to be a DH as a free agent – Jr is due $25 million over the next two years, plus a $4 million buyout of his 2009 option. That’s $29 million for two years of Jr’s mediocre performance, when he’s healthy.
There’s not a team in the league that would take that contract.
The “box office draw” argument is specious at best. You could say the same thing, to varying degrees, for several of the names on this list.
Griffey is a shadow of the player he once was, still being paid as if he were that player. As much as I wish his career path had gone differently, he is pretty much the definition of the sort of player that should be on this list.
Nice to see no Mariners in the top 10 though.
This offseason’s free agent market, which strongly resembled the crazy markets of years previous, showed me that this sort of thing is very, very explicable.
Nomar still a hot commodity? Relegated to 1st, he plays a power position with as of this season…no power. With his contract they are paying him alot to play alot of games and be a leader of the team. Loney that should be starting at 1st, and one would think that they could yield a nice return for him.
Also what about Schmidt? Yes, he had “alot” of suitors this offseason, but on a scale of trade value/contract where does he rate when he is not pitching well and is topping out at mid/high 80’s fastball? Any suitors now?
When it comes to the Mariners Front Office…anything is possible these days. Perhaps they wouldn’t take the contract, but they just might trade away a couple prospects for Junior and $2mil cash. /shudder
So, Dave, what are the M’s going to have to give up to get Garret Anderson next year? Felix? Felix plus Adam Jones? We still need more of that veteran leadership.
I am showing Griffey’s Salaray at 8.44 million on multiple sites. I don’t see how his salary could be what you claim it to be unless his salary next year ballons to 17 million. Where are you getting your numbers. 8.5 million is a little cheaper than Frank Thomas and quite tradeable albeit you might need to take some salary back in a deal.
B.J. Ryan’s MRI isn’t for his shoulder, Dave. It’s the elbow that’s been giving him trouble. I know it doesn’t improve the situation a great deal but I know which I’d rather see being the problem.
Did Juan Pierre get much consideration for the list?
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/cincinnati-reds_24.html
The $8.44 million you’re seeing is accounting for the deferred money – that’s actual payout by the Reds this season, but doesn’t include money they’ll owe him in the future for this year.
His salary for this season and next season is $12.5 million per year – the payments are just structured so he doesn’t get all of it until later.
Well depending on what you want to count that certainly does change things. A trade could be made with his current salary if they want to eat what is deffered. But no one will take on the differed money unless they unload someone else.
I disagree. I don’t think there’s too many teams in MLB who would take a flyer on Griffey today if the Reds ate his ENTIRE compensation. I think it’s very unlikely that he will be a significant contributor ever again. He’s 37 and hasn’t played 130 games in a season in seven years.
ESPNews reports that B.J. Ryan, who was examined by Dr. James Andrews on Monday, is expected to be sidelined 4-6 weeks with his elbow injury. Ryan was placed on the disabled list on Monday. Jason Frasor will serve as Toronto’s closer while Ryan is out.
#47 Are you kidding me? If I could get Griffey for free, I would take any plate appearance I could get from him, and then plug in the 4th outfielder/replacement DH when he goes down. When he bats, he is certainly worth league minimum price.
2005 – 491AB OPS .946
2006 – 428AB OPS .802
Wow. There’s a definite lack of baseball knowledge here.
Evaluating ANY player in mid-April is FOOLISH. Period.
Um, this is not the Vidro thread. Period.
2006 – 428AB OPS .802
A league-average hitter playing half their games in Cincy’s ballpark should have hit .282/.354/.457, for an OPS of .811.
In other words: Griffey’s wasn’t even an AVERAGE hitter in 2006, and he’s a poor defensive OF.
OK, so I exaggerate a little. You’d take him for nothing. But not much more than nothing.
Last year was not good — in Cincinnati’s park that’s a minus OPS+. And he’s been on the DL eight times since moving to the Reds. And he broke his hand this winter. And he’s slugging .289. And he’s 37, making the move from center to right at least five years too late. And that 2005 was a major comeback for him, which he was unable to sustain last year. And even .802 is nothing to get excited about from a corner OF/DH.
Sum it up, and if he wasn’t “Junior”, with 563 HR in the bank, he’d have trouble cracking most rosters. If you took away his first eleven seasons, and looked at him just for what he brings now, you wouldn’t be impressed AT ALL, despite that decent ‘05 peak year.
#51 – Who said anything about Vidro?
Sarcasm?
Anacortes_Fan, you know you’re leaving off the beginning of Dave’s sentence in your quote — the part that says “After a disappointing 2006″ — because it undercuts your implication that Dave is evaluating Winn based only on his 2007 start. Is that your idea of honest argument? “Evaluating ANY player in mid-April is FOOLISH. Period.” is just a silly thing to say. If you’d said “Evaluating any player only on his mid-April start”, sure; but that’s not what you said, and that’s not what Dave — despite your selective quoting — was doing.
But then, if you think Dave of all people has a serious lack of baseball knowledge, I’d like to know what qualifies you to say so, apart from the ability to type a quick opinion and hit the post button.
A post button that says “I wish to add my light to the glowing firmament of discussion” no less.
Aren’t you supposed to add an ellipsis to any quote that isn’t quoted as a whole?
At what point will USSM require us to abide by some sort of Style Manual? I won’t request a specific manual as i know there is a multitude of differing opinions on which manual is the best.
Carpal tunnel from all of the book signings I hope?
What about Derek Jeter? His deal isn’t exactly tiny, and he’s pretty abysmal on defense.
2005 – .309/.389/.450 OPS .839
2006 – .343/.417/.483 OPS .900
Jeter is 32 years old, probably has at least 3-4 good years ahead of him, and I would like to see him in my clubhouse, suspect defense and all.
Chicago would be most appropriate for this blog. Or AMA.
Anacortes Fan,
You don’t have to agree with Dave, but claiming he has a lack of baseball knowledge is a pretty silly statement (and not just because he is one of the site operators). I don’t agree with the four horsemen on all of their respective positions, but you don’t have to hang around long to know that those positions are generally well-reasoned and the result of more than a momentary feeling ala average Joe fan. Most often Dave is telling us to calm down and not to overreact based on too small a sample.
Feel free to look up Jeter’s contract.
As well as he is doing now – Billy Wagner? $10.5M until 2009, then $8M (or $1M buyout) in 2010. He’s 36. He’s going to fall off a cliff sometime soon.
My comment wasn’t targeted solely at Dave, but at multiple posters who have made claims based on 2007 statistics and performances.
That said, I don’t necessarily understand why anyone would take Dave’s opinions too seriously. I have read quite a bit of what he has to say and I wouldn’t say that I respect him as a baseball mind and/or commentator.
In fact, after doing some fairly extensive research on this very topic, I would venture to say that Derek Zumsteg is the only one who seems to have a clue about our national past-time.
Anyone can be a baseball nerd and throw an OPS at you – but it’s someone special who truly appreciates, respects and UNDERSTANDS the game.
And what, pray tell, is the “fairly extensive research” that you have done on the topic of Dave’s baseball mind and commentary? I’m just curious as to the basis of that seemingly odd statement.
65
It seems like you are trolling. You can’t seriously mean what you’re saying.
We’ll just leave it there.
I’m sure Derek is thrilled as can be to write a blog with coauthors who don’t have a clue about baseball.
I don’t agree with Anacortes_Fan, but let Dave handle it if Dave wants to. He’s a big boy, he can handle himself.
Well said.
Anacortes, you should really start you’re own blog. It sounds like with your extensive research, you’ll have a lot of interesting things to say. You could really show these hacks how its done. Maybe Derek’ll even ditch USSM and join you. I look forward to reading it. I’m tired of coming here and having baseball nerds throw OPS at me.
So, when players go to arbitration, do they point to these guys and say “I am better than he is, pay me the same?” Do these outrageous overvaluations affect what players get in arbitration?
Which of these guys will Bavasi trade Felix for next winter (if Bavasi is still here)?
42. Sorry, I missed your previous post, which is no doubt the correct answer to my question in 73.
72: I think it can, but I think it’s also easy for a team to say “that deal is gawdawful.”
Since this thread is technically about trade value rather than whose contract is the biggest albatross, where would guys like Juan Pierre and GMJ fit in? They’re only making 2/3 or 1/2 of some failed contracts, but I’d argue Helton would be easier to justify trading for than Juan Pierre with his jelly arm and career 85 OPS+
On a side note, related to overvalueing players so loosely related to bad trade value, who will be the first to hit 3000 and never get into the Hall? I’d say Pierre. Willie Taveras?
Extensive research would be my sarcastic way of saying that I have read a number of the blogs..
I am a life-long Mariners fan. A 20 year season-ticket holder. I have also been to all but three major league parks (Tampa Bay, Florida and Washington excluded). I’ve had lunch with Neihaus and Fairly a few times as well. I’m hardly a troll.
I just call a spade a spade.
77: Except in this case, you’re calling a spade a fire-breathing chicken or something.
Anacortes_Fan, before I note the new ways in which you are arguing irrationally, I’ll just note that you have not in the slightest way responded to the refutations of your previous irrational posts.
Would you care to even take a shy at responding to my post 56? Surely a simple spade-caller like yourself can at least pretend to have read the responses to your arguments? Or would it embarrass you to admit that you were being dishonest in selectively quoting Dave to make it sound like he was saying something he wasn’t? After all, you’re a 20-year season ticket holder and luncheon companion to broadcasters: you must have some class. Right?
Holy crap! You’re that well qualified?
When you ordered the chicken burrito did Ron Fairly ask you to “remember who’s in trouble now”?
Does Dave Niehaus know you still don’t know how to spell his name?
77
To say that you disagree with Dave is one thing, but to say that he is not knowledgeable about baseball??? When you spout hyperbole like that, it really erodes the chance of reasonable people respecting your opinions when they are well formed.
Carl Pavano definately fits. His contract alone is stupid, but considering he hasn’t pitched snot since he signed it makes him almost a no-way-im-risking-that trade. 10 mil in ‘07, 11 mil in ‘08, 13 mil in ‘09 as a club option, $1.95 mil buyout.
At least Washburn pitches…
Roy Oswalt is another interesting one. As much as I have liked Roy, that’s a ton of scratch to be paying someone who is only going to get worse by 2011…
Eric Chavez is getting there. He needs to turn his stuff around or he’ll become as undesirable as Jason Kendall.
And I may be going out on a limb here, but I don’t like JD Drew’s new contract. The Sox gave themselves plenty of “out” clauses for the later parts of the contract, but towards the end he could be about a sbad as Brian Giles is right now…
To the dope who claimed that Jeter is among the 10 most overpaid players in the game, have you ever heard of marketability? He’s also a pretty darn good hitter, a leader on the field, and a big game player. The guy is a winner. He finds a way to win, and in doing so, while maintaining the aura of pinstripes, he embodies what it is to be a Yankee. The Yankees have not regretted that contract for one second of one day since it’s been signed.
Pavano and Igawa both deserve mention on this list, although I guess you can write Igawa off for any marketing related revenue who brings.
If intangibles were a good reason to hand out huge contracts, Willie Bloomquist would be on a 7 year $95 million contract right now.
That’s how much /grit/ he has.
Intangibles, inherently, cannot be measured. Which means two things:
1) The people who do in fact have them, the amount that they have, and thus the value they add to whatever team they happen to be on, is ALWAYS overstated, particularly if they happen to be a member of a major media market team (see Jeter, Derek).
2) The people who have very little baseball talent, but who are still on a major league roster for whatever reason, are commonly credited with having huge amounts of intangibles, to create the illusion of value (see Bloomquist, Willie).
No, really, what team do you root for?
If Jeter were not a Yankee he would have little marketability, he is by far the most overated player in baseball.
Uh, Derek Jeter has a lifetime OBP of .389. His comp list on Baseball Reference has a scary number of HOFers on it, and if he dropped dead TOMORROW he probably has a HOF resume.
Yes, Derek Jeter gets paid in Yankee Monopoly Money- but the same argument as applies to Giambi applies here; he’s still a very good player.
Oh, sure. Derek Jeter is a pretty darn good player, and I don’t think anyone is seriously questioning that.
But his perceived value is HUGELY inflated by people who talk about him being a “winner” and a “leader” and a “big-game player” because they’ve been spoonfed that endlessly by the New York sports media and ESPN.
I particularly think it’s hilarious that he pretty much has the Gold Glove sewn up at the beginning of every year, despite being a mediocre defensive player who just dives at everything he can’t get to to make it look like he’s giving it his all.
“Overrated” doesn’t mean “bad”. Jeter is easily one of the most overrated players in baseball.
Hmm! His OPS is 200 points higher at Coors than it is on the road.
http://tinyurl.com/2tdrqb
He still has a .409 away OBP.
That’s a pretty damn good ballplayer.
“Overrated” doesn’t mean “bad”. Jeter is easily one of the most overrated players in baseball.
But does it mean “top 10 players with horrible trade value”? I’d say no. If Giambi isn’t on the list, Jeter, who’s more clearly a HOF player, surely isn’t.
93: Jeter more clearly HOF? Giambi’s peak was Ruth-like, he’s been consistently great, and much more of an offensive force, got started late yet still has a shot at 500 HR. They’re both bad fielders, Giambi worse, and Jeter plays a more important position, but one can argue that only amplifies the damage. They’re both HOF, Giambi more “clearly”.
91: 119 OPS+ and good defense = very good everyday ballplayer.
I’m far from convinced that Jason Giambi is a HoFer. Jeter, however, is very very close, if not already there, and hasn’t yet shown signs of offensive decline (even if he isn’t a shortstop anymore).
94,
The only “clear” Giambi has over Jeter comes out of a tube…
96, His offensive numbers (149 OPS+)put him squarely in HOF company. Giambi’s peak was so great that I think there’d have to be an extreme shortage of longetivity/counting stats to keep him out, of which there isn’t really now, and definitely won’t be if he plays much longer. Also, he didn’t get to play a full season until he was 25, and power hitters usually start early. As for the steroid issue, I will not bar any player on that basis as long as the possibility exists that another player gets in and gets away with it.
“There’s not a team in baseball that would claim Zito right now were he to land on waivers.”
Be careful not to tempt fate with that statement.
You never know what Bavasi is still capable of. He did make a contract offer to Zito for almost $100 million this past offseason.
Go look at Giambi’s comps at age 35, and Jeter’s at 32.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/giambja01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jeterde01.shtml
There are a lot more HOF’ers on Jeter’s list. This is because a 123 OPS+ at SS is more historically unique than a 149 OPS+ at 1B.
Also, Giambi’s 148 HR’s away from 500. That means he needs to average 30 HR’s a year through age 40. Jeter has a better shot at 3000 hits, because he could do THAT in 5-6 years and still be under 40.
Regardless of what you think of Jeter (and I am no fan), he’s a lot closer to being a Hall of Famer than Giambi. You don’t acutally need to spend much time with the numbers, though they are pretty good. He’s a darling of many of the voters, viewed to have strong leadership skills, is a 7-time all star, was rookie of the year, does have 3 gold gloves, is viewed as Mr. Clutch, even in the playoffs, has 4 world series rings, a lifetime .317 batting average, plays a more demanding position, has a shot at 3000 hits, and has already played for 13 seasons. He also has no sterioid cloud hanging over his head to distract voters or make it a tougher choice. If you think the voters are making the decision on Jeter based solely on his OBP, you haven’t been paying attention.
If Mac doesn’t make it, I don’t think Giambi stands a chance. Even if Giambi appraoches 500 home runs, there will still be a debate, cause we know he used.
Maybe this should be a debate purely about the numbers, but getting in the Hall of Fame isn’t just about the numbers. I am not saying Jeter is a lock (I haven’t looked at what it takes to make it as a shortstop), but he’s in over Giambi easy.
Another positive in Derek Jeter’s favor is that Tim McCarver and Michael Kay have a huge man-crush on Capt’n Dreamboat.
Isn’t this thread about Trade Value?
Jeter’s worth to his existing team is not in question. The idea is that Jeter would not be valued nearly as high in any other market. His expected returns in respect to his contract just makes him not worth it.
I wouldn’t take him over Yuni, no way.
Right, but is a HOF SS making 20 million and still playing at HOF level the same kind of drag on your team as Michael Young, the SS Dave DID list?
It’s not much of a contest for me. Michael Young’s career OPS is 102. Jeter’s is 129. Jeter’s 3 years older, but considerably the better player. The price/performance ratio is not as far out of whack for Jeter as it is for Young.
#103
I would take Jeter over Yuni if it meant we didn’t have to “spend” the surplus on Weaver and Vidro.
I realize the opportunity cost, but the likelyhood of finding someone to pick up Turbo and Jeff the Terrible’s contract if they perform to expectations is very low. More than likely, we are cutting them if they do play as we think they will.
Jeter is more likely to have trade value because of his reputation. Another team would be likely to think “Maybe he just needs a change of scenery” if he were in a slump.
Isn’t Weaver on a one-year deal? His contract isn’t THAT bad considering that. Yeah yeah, I know he sucks and it’s still 8 million bucks but at least he’s not locked up for a 35mil and 2+ years like Turbo.
#104
i wasn’t saying he was top 10 Anti-Trade Value worthy, but I still have major major reservations about taking on that contract.
107
It is all relative to the GM and the team. If you are talking about Oakland or Minnesota, then he’s going to consume an inordinate amount of their payroll and someone like a Yuni may be a better bet so they can retain other players. If you are talking about Boston or New York, salary doesn’t matter nearly as much as having the most talented player.
In our case, I would rather have Jeter, Snelling, minor league invitee du jour, and Woods than Turbo, Yuni, Weaver, and Batista.
If the surplus is spent on a Pujols, Cabrera, etc. then sure. But if it is going to get you expensive mid tier free agents, then give me the overpriced star.
80: Wikipedia burn!
#108
Agreed. But wasn’t this post based on some sort of League-wide Trade Value?
You can’t do a league-wide Trade Value talk without considering both the small-market and large-market teams and coming to some sort of average. So shouldn’t we use the league-average payroll to determine who is overpaid or not? If there are only two teams that could or would afford Jeter it doesn’t make him a highly valuable trade commodity.
If there are only two teams that could or would afford Jeter it doesn’t make him a highly valuable trade commodity.
The Yankees could agree to pay a large portion of Jeter’s contract in return for better players in the deal. More than two teams would be in play.
If there are only two teams that could or would afford Jeter it doesn’t make him a highly valuable trade commodity.
Right, but from Dave’s original post…
…there are some good players who are just greatly overpaid, and their price/performance ratio is so far out of whack that they’re nearly impossible to even give away. These guys have significant negative trade value.
There’s two ways of looking at this, I suppose. Manny Ramirez, who is also a HOF player, got put on waivers while making 20 million in the middle of a longterm deal a few years ago, the classic “you can have him for free, but you have to pay him” move… and no-one bit.
The other is that Randy Johnson, Mike Hampton (one of Dave’s “negative value” cases, and he wasn’t a good value at that time, either) and A-Rod got moved with pretty heavy deals.
My argument is that if Dave says “He might not be a bargain, but he’s not an albatross” about Giambi, you can make the same case for Jeter, a younger player of comparable or BETTER value. Jeter gets a lot of bad pr in the sabremetric world because of Yankee homerism/national broadcaster-writer fanboyism that inflates his perceived value, but we are discussing someone in the middle of a HOF-caliber career, so this isn’t Willie Bloomquist we’re discussing- or even Randy Winn or Mike Hampton.
110- That’s why I tried to put it into context with the Mariners and the $100 mil payroll. There are situations where having Jeter on our team would make sense.
My whole point is it is usually better to have a star with high perceived value, than a collection of overpaid mid tier guys that will wind up as a sunk cost ala Cirillo, Everett, Vidro, Aurilia, Spiezio, etc. And as far as star with high perceived value, there are few out there with more than Jeter.
I’ve seen the “Greater Fool” theory play out many times in baseball. Heck, I saw the “Greater Fool” theory play out this whole winter in Seattle.
Aren’t The M’s the Greatest Fool though? They’re getting stuck with the sunk cost.
#113 – makes sense, except we have an elite defensive shortstop already, and for almost nothing. To me that’s better than a star with high perceived value. Jeter on our team is square-peg, round-hole discussion. He doesn’t solve the Vidro, Weaever, et. al. problems this team has, and if you got rid of Yuni for him, you take on a whole lot more salary for a guy who is going to cause our pitchers to look even worse than they are. And let’s face it, at his best he’s not putting up A-Rod power numbers to compensate.
The way to build a team is with a few producing superstars paid as such, low-salary future stars who give value but don’t eat up payroll (Lopez, Betancourt, etc.), vetaran players who don’t perform at superstar levels, but get paid reasonable amounts for what they provide, and then some good role players. The M’s pay superstar salaries for declining (or overrated) players, mis-use role players, and have an uncanny ability to lose the star players who produce as such. I sure don’t want to see us giving away the low-salary future stars on our roster who currently give us incredible return on contract, and make the non-Felix games fun to watch.
114 – Cam Bonifay and Chuck LaMar say hello.
#116
Isaiah Thomas says Hi back
115 – As I stated earlier, I am all for breaking the bank for Pujols, Cabrera, etc, but my argument was would it be better to have Jeter, an overrated player who could be flipped to another team than a collection of overpaid mid tier guys likely to become sunk costs.
As an analogy, if you were taking a test in school and you had an option of getting a B or an F, which option would you take.
Jeter is the B. The guys we have are F’s. My argument is that our team would be more competitive with Jeter, Snelling, Daniel Cabrera and Jake Woods than Yuni and the stiffs we assembled in the offseason.
If Jeter struggled, we would be able to flip him for something. Heck, we were rooting for the Mariners to flip Sexson this offseason and probably could have gotten out of his contract if we wanted to give him away. I’m sure the Giants would much rather have had Sexson at 1st than Aurilia. Jeter is regarded as the most marketable player in the game, a “Winner”, a sure fire Hall of Famer, a good team guy, a gritty leader. That all counts with the guys who actually sign paychecks.
But why does getting Jeter have anything to do with Snelling, Cabrera or Woods? Just doesn’t make any sense to me. Why create a defense problem to solve other problems that have nothing to do with our shortstop, and increase payroll significantly to do it? It seems more compelling to argue that the M’s should not have traded Snelling (and I would agree about that) and should have gone after Daniel Cabrera, rather than throwing Jeter into the mix at all.
I have an analogy for what you are doing: You go to the mechanic to fix a shock and strut problem. He recommends you spend a lot on some top of the line new tires to replace the ones you bought last year. They do make the ride feel better, but obviously don’t fix the problem. Sure you might not think about the shocks and struts as much, admiring the new tires that you didn’t need, as you figure out how you are going to pay the credit card bill, but what have you gained, really? Oh yeah, by the way, you gave away your 1 year old tires that were performing just fine to the mechanic in the deal, so some lucky guy gets to drive another 50,000 miles on them for almost nothing.
Oh, and as far as Big Sexy goes, getting rid of him was based on the notion that he is an overpaid player on the decline. At age 32, do you really believe Jeter is going to maintain through whatever long-term contract he’d demand to come to Seattle? Odd are we’d have the same argument about Jeter in 2 or 3 years (if that long) that we had about Sexson this off-season.
MFiCO,
That’s why I assigned a B letter grade to the deal. It’s not optimal, but do you really want the current regime with $20mil burning a hole in their pocket.
We are operating in a hypothetical situation because there’s no way the Yanks would trade Jeter at this time.
If Jeter struggled this year, Bavasi was fired and Antonetti was brought in, it would be a lot easier to move Jeter to clear up payroll and rebuild/reload than the crappy players that have brought in with the cash that was created by not signing Vlad, not signing Tejada, not trading for Ramirez (if he would even come here), not signing Dice-K, etc.
The discussion was on trade value, and some of trade value is more than wins-per-dollar and regression analysis.
Does Manny even know where Seattle is?
I realize the discussion was on trade value. Dave’s posts were on trade value in a vacuum – i.e., who are the highest/lowest trade value players, without consideration to relative trade value to a particular team.
You made the discussion specific to the M’s, and I’d argue that Jeter is less than a B for us – probably less than a C – because of all the other things we’d have to do to make that work – free up payroll, lose Yuni, lost opportunity cost to fix actual holes on the team, etc. If you look at a team with a bad shortstop and money to burn, hell, it could be an B move for them. If you look that the M’s, the last thing we want to do right now is lose Yuni, a great defensive player, part of a great DP duo, who is fine offensively, and makes our ground ball pitchers look better than they really are -all for very little money relatively. Yuni is one of the bright spots on the team, and any deal that has us lose our shortstop of the future better get us a whole lot more than Jeter locked up for Jeter dollars and a bazillion years.
I mean think about it, if you are Jeter, you have the rings, you have played for the highest profile team in baseball all of your career – $$$ – the only reason you go anywhere else is for the security of an overpriced long-term contract to give you security in your twilight. Dave included rules to keep the discussion rooted in reality, so the discussion is not completely hypothetical. Otherwise, shoot – give me Santana, Manny, Pujols, and Miguel Cabrera and call it a day, I’m sure there’s some scenario where we could swing it.
123
I think we are arguing right beyond each other. The argument came to Jeter over Yuni (post 105). Jeter has a career OPS+ of 123. Yuni has a career OPS+ of 83 and is about as good as he’s going to get offensively. Yuni’s amazing defense doesn’t make up that difference. His value is almost totally tied to his low salary for the next few years.
In a vacuum, on a 1 for 1 deal, without salaries considered, would you take Jeter for Yuni? I would and then I would fill my team with guys that we had or guys on the Dave’s Offseason Plan. My whole argument is that Jeter is more marketable than Yuni, a better player than Yuni, and would be easier to offload than the crap we’ve been having to cut and sink the costs.
In a vacuum, on a 1 for 1 deal, without salaries considered, would you take Jeter for Yuni?
Those aren’t the rules. There is no scenario ever where that’s going to be an option. Salaries are considered, and Yuni’s defense + his salary + his age make him a better option for us than Jeter right now (and probably tomorrow too).
Crap, I can think of players I’d take over almost everybody on our roster save Felix if salary and what it would take to get them here didn’t matter. Why dress it up? You are really asking who is the better overall player (no team or salary considerations included, and looking only at this year), Yuni or Jeter? That seems like a waste of time, and not what Dave had in mind with these posts. Jeter clearly wins that one. He’s a better overall player right now. I still wouldn’t put him at short on the M’s right now.
And no, with the monster contract it’d take to get Jeter to come here, it would be harder to unload him on another team without eating a good chunk of that salary. But I guess if we don’t consider that . . .
If you go back to what I said in my original post, I would rather have Jeter than Yuni and cash to waste on Turbo etc.
Here’s what I’m saying. In my first post, I changed the rules slightly. It’s the start of the offseason and you have 20 million dollars to spend. You have the option to have Jeter at his current salary or Yuni and the crap free agents that we’ve had the last few years. I’m taking Jeter.
Jeter is unique in that he is BY FAR the most marketable player in the game. I think he’s a lot easier to move after 1 bad year than you do. You could move him to a large market team pretty easily without having to eat the contract.
Look at Randy Moss in football and they have a hard salary cap to deal with. He hasn’t been productive in 3 years and the Packers are still supposedly interested.
Well, the fantasy-land rules you’ve adopted will never come to be, so if you want to hold that position in the land of make believe, fine. Why pretend you could get Jeter on a one-year, one-shot deal?
Fact of the matter is that Jeter is locked up through 2010 on his contract. That means you have to do at least as good, if not better than this to get him here:
2007: $20 million
2008: $20 million
2009: $20 million
2010: $21 million
Add on another year or two (and whatever else you have to add to sweeten the pot to get him here), and you’ve suddenly gone well over $100 mill for a player during his age 33-37 or 38 years. Now that’s an albatross that you won’t get rid of without eating some of the salary. Plus, I think Jeter’ll retire a Yankee. Fact of the matter is his marketability is swallowed up by the security he already has. You think he’s going to be less overpaid by 2010?
129
Again, 2009 and 2010 are someone else’s problem. I’m looking at him regardless of his future length. I don’t think he’s in for a serious regression, but if I’m wrong, I will flip him to the “Greater Fool” who believes he needs a “change of scenery” to turn it back around. You don’t believe that Derek Jeter, media darling would be given that chance? You really can’t picture Jim Rome, etc clamoring to get him the hell out of Seattle and blaming the park for his woes if he posted a league average OPS+? You may not make the trade, I’ll bet you I could send him to San Francisco where Brian Sabean has a bunch of Bonds money burning a hole in his pocket.
As we’ve said it’s a moot point because I believe he will retire as a Yankee, but I would rather have a slightly overpaid star than a bunch of crap because it is easier to move the star than the crap.
94: No, I don’t think he belongs on the list at all, I just like to speak out against Jeter.
96: Someone can be both good and overrated.
After all Jeter gets a minus 64 versus Adam Everett’s plus 76 in terms of fielding. This from Baseball Info Solutions, and their book, “The fielding Bible”.
Story on ESPN about “The fielding Bible”
That’s a cool article. I kinda want that book now.
My argument on Jeter is thus: he’s not getting any better. 2006 was a fluke. The Yankees are paying him a huge amount of money.
Does Jeter belong with Michael Young? No. Hampton or Anderson? No. Helton? Yes. Jeter’s more difficult defensive position is offset by his abysmal defense.
I don’t think trading Jeter would be possible were he objectively analyzed. Bringing his name and supposed intangibles into the equation skews things in his favor, but the same factors might apply to Varitek as well.
I am a Mets fan who does not like Jeter, because the media blows smoke up his ass and he can’t field worth a damn. Having said that, his contract is no albatross. He is coming off of an MVP caliber season, has the type of speed / line drive skills which do not quickly evaporate, and has been consistently a very good player (if not the superstar the media makes him out to be). I would rather be stuck with him for the next four years at his salary than have Beltre and his inconsistent performance at the big bucks he is making.
Beltre: through 2009, ~12m
Jeter: through 2009, ~20m, 2010 for $21m
My argument on Jeter is thus: he’s not getting any better. 2006 was a fluke. The Yankees are paying him a huge amount of money.
Jeter’s 2006: .343/.417/.483
Jeter’s 2000: .339/.416/.481
Jeter’s 1999: .349/.438/.552
So, he’s had 3 fluke years during his career? How many times does he have to hit .330-.340 with OBP’s in the .400s for it not to be a fluke? For Pete’s sake, his LIFETIME batting line is .317/.388/.462- so, basically, the difference between his line in 2006 and his career line is about one single a month. How on earth is that a fluke?
Here’s the other thing: Jeter hasn’t declined from 2004 to 2006 (OPS+ going from 116 to 121 to 138). Helton’s gone from 159 to 144 to 119.
I wouldn’t pass up Jeter for Beltre, but Helton’s under contract for a longer priod of time, and has decline signals all over his performance the last few years. I’d take Jeter over the guys at 8/9/10/