MLB Trade Value for 2007
About a year and a half ago, I did a post on who has the most trade value in the major leagues, blatently stealing off an idea from Bill Simmons of a column he’s been doing for a while on NBA players. It was pretty popular, so last summer, I did something similar for just the AL West.
Since it’s been a while and people keep asking, plus the fact that the M’s have been rained out yet again, I’ve now updated the MLB Trade Value list for how I think things stack up today. Once again, let’s borrow from Simmons’ rules, slightly modified to fit baseball.
A. Salaries matter. Would you rather pay David Wright $55 million for the next six years or Lance Berkman $85 million over the same period?
B. Age matters. Would you rather have Roy Halladay for the next five seasons or Scott Kazmir for the next 12?
C. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded straight up for any other player without budget ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, “We’ll trade you Player X for Player Y straight up,” would Team B make the deal or not?
D. Concentrate on degrees. For instance, neither the Mariners nor Cardinals would pull the trigger on an Pujols-Hernandez trade. But at the very least, the Cardinals say, “Wow, Felix Hernandez is available?” while the Mariners would say, “There’s no way we’re trading Felix, but Albert Pujols…” That counts in the big scheme of things.
E. Make the list in reverse order (Nos. 40 to 1). So if Ryan Howard comes in at No. 14, players 1 through 13 are all players about whom Philadelphia would probably say, “We hate giving up Howard, but there’s no way we can pass up that deal.” And they wouldn’t trade him for any player listed between Nos. 15 and 40.
So, now that we have those issues out of the way, try to remember that this whole post is for fun. Try not to get all bent out of shape if you think I have Grady Sizemore two slots too low or Nick Markakis ten spots too high. It’s a water cooler discussion post. Take it as such. So, without further ado:
| Rank | Name | Position | Team |
| 1 | Felix Hernandez | RHP | Seattle |
| 2 | Albert Pujols | 1B | St. Louis |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | 3B | Florida |
| 4 | Jose Reyes | SS | New York Mets |
| 5 | Joe Mauer | C | Minnesota Twins |
| 6 | Grady Sizemore | CF | Cleveland |
| 7 | Johan Santana | LHP | Minnesota |
| 8 | Brian McCann | C | Atlanta |
| 9 | Delmon Young | RF | Tampa Bay |
| 10 | David Wright | 3B | New York Mets |
| 11 | Scott Kazmir | LHP | Tampa Bay |
| 12 | Chase Utley | 2B | Philadelphia |
| 13 | Brandon Webb | RHP | Arizona |
| 14 | Ryan Howard | 1B | Philadelphia |
| 15 | Ben Sheets | RHP | Milwaukee |
| 16 | Jeremy Bonderman | RHP | Detroit |
| 17 | Travis Hafner | DH | Cleveland |
| 18 | Alex Gordon | 3B | Kansas City |
| 19 | John Lackey | RHP | Anaheim |
| 20 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | RHP | Boston |
| 21 | Howie Kendrick | 2B | Anaheim |
| 22 | Carl Crawford | LF | Tampa Bay |
| 23 | Philip Hughes | RHP | New York Yankees |
| 24 | Hanley Ramirez | SS | Florida |
| 25 | Roy Halladay | RHP | Toronto |
| 26 | Matt Cain | RHP | San Francisco |
| 27 | Nick Markakis | RF | Baltimore |
| 28 | Brett Myers | RHP | Philadelphia |
| 29 | Ryan Zimmerman | 3B | Washington |
| 30 | Justin Verlander | RHP | Detroit |
| 31 | Prince Fielder | 1B | Milwaukee |
| 32 | Jake Peavy | RHP | San Diego |
| 33 | Rickie Weeks | 2B | Milwaukee |
| 34 | Jeff Francoeur | RF | Atlanta |
| 35 | Cole Hamels | LHP | Philadelphia |
| 36 | Robinson Cano | 2B | New York Yankees |
| 37 | Jason Bay | LF | Pittsburgh |
| 38 | Lance Berkman | 1B | Houston |
| 39 | Erik Bedard | LHP | Baltimore |
| 40 | Dan Haren | RHP | Oakland |
Okay, so, there’s the list. On to the notes.
You can argue where Felix ranks among the best pitchers in the game, considering he’s been spectacular in spurts before and hasn’t shown the consistency required of a true ace. But you can’t argue that he’s making $400,000 this year and is under club control through 2011. There’s still the problem of attrition with young pitchers and the risk is high, but the reward is worth it. Felix is the most valuable property in the game.
I went back and forth on Cabrera and Pujols for the #2 spot. In the end, the fact that Pujols is signed through 2010 with an option for 2011 won me over. With Cabrera, you’re getting a great young player that could walk away after 2009, and with the inflating market, won’t be cheap even if you manage to get him under contract. That hurts his value enough to push him down to the #3 spot, even though he may outhit Pujols this year.
Reyes, Sizemore, and Mauer are basically interchangable. All three play up-the-middle defensive spots, and all are legitimate MVP candidates before they turn 25. I give the slight edge to Reyes because he has the fewest questions about his ability to remain at his position and he’s the most athletically gifted of the three, but you don’t have to argue very long for either of the other two before I shurg and say “okay”.
I might have Johan too high at #7, since he’s only under contract for another two years. But he’s been so consistently unbelievable that almost any team in baseball is a contender by adding Johan to the front of their rotation, and he’s been willing to discuss an extension with the Twins, so theoretically you could keep him off the open market by getting a deal done soon.
Despite the fact that he’s all the way at #14, I might actually be overrating Ryan Howard. He’s already 27, and his body suggests he won’t age gracefully. 2006 will go down as his career year, and if he regresses too far offensively, then he’s just a good player instead of a great one. However, since he’s heading into just his third year, he’s still very cheap, so his contract pushes him up the list.
I’m going to get a lot of grief for having Hanley Ramirez 20 spots below Jose Reyes, but I’m not sold on Hanley repeating his 2006 year on a consistent basis. I’m also still not sold on his defense. But he’s cheap and still clearly one of the best shortstops in the league, so 24 is as low as I could put him.
Nick Markakis at #27 is something of a hunch pick, but I love his swing, he’s a pretty good defensive player as well, and he’s heading into his second season in the majors, meaning he makes nothing. That’s a valuable asset, and if he takes the step forward that he’s capable of, he could easily crack the top ten next year.
If there’s one guy who could make me look really bad for having him way too low, its Cole Hamels. If he stays healthy this year and pitches up to his talent level, he’s a top five guy. He’s that good.
Guys who just missed the cut: Francisco Liriano, Justin Morneau, Matt Holliday, Adam Loewen, and Scott Olsen.
Page 2 features Felix Felix Felix
Interview at Salon
If you’re looking for something else to read after the 1,000 articles about Felix, you can check out my Q&A with King Kaufman about cheating and baseball over at Salon.
Summing Up Felix
Larry Stone with lots of quotes from players. John Hickey too. And Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe has a piece syndicated in the P-I. Also, Rob Neyer gives USSM a pretty nice plug in his latest blog entry. Thanks Rob.
And, just because it’s fun, here’s some statistical tidbits from Felix’s start to 2007:
85.7% of the balls in play he’s allowed have been groundballs. That’s remarkable, and further evidence of what we’ve been saying for a while – when Felix is getting groundballs, he’s unhittable.
Felix’s opening day Game Score was an 86, the best of any start in the majors this year. Until yesterday, when he threw an 89. He now has thrown the two best games of any pitcher this year.
Felix’s Win Probability Added for last nights game was .502. The rest of the M’s were at -.02. Talk about carrying a team on your back.
Felix has now thrown at least 8 innings in a start as many times this year as he did all of last year.
Opposing hitters are 4 for 52 against Felix this year.
The King Is Almost Totally Unhittable
What else is there to say?
Felix has arrived. Long live the King.
Game 5, Mariners at Red Sox
4:05 pm, Felix vs Matsuzaka. Please be kind to the servers and don’t hit refresh constantly – we’re expecting a very heavy traffic load for tonight’s game.
I haven’t been this excited for a game in years. As my friends will attest, I get a bit giddy on Felix day anyways, and well, this is no ordinary Felix day. This is the leading contender for 2007 Game of the Year.
The media is going to run with Matsuzaka-Ichiro as the big story, which should be expected. The matchup will open the game, and Ichiro is the most famous player on the roster. Oh, and he happens to be from Japan, or so I’ve heard. Since it’s Boston, the focus of the story will be on Matsuzaka’s first start at Fenway. The $102 million right arm takes the hill in front of Red Sox Nation for the first time. And the leadoff hitter happens to be his countrymate. It writes itself.
But in four hours, there’s a good chance that Ichiro and Matsuzaka won’t be the story to come out of this game. This is King Felix’s first start in Fenway, too. Red Sox Nation has never seen him pitch, either, and it’s his first major league start as a 21 year old. It’s a nationally televised game – only the second one of his career.
On opening day, Felix told the city of Seattle that the hype was real, and that he wasn’t the babyfaced overweight kid anymore, but now he was coming after Johan Santana’s crown. Tonight, Felix has a chance to tell the rest of America.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is the second best pitcher taking the hill tonight. Go get em, Felix.
Yet Another Late Edit: Arthur Rhodes needs TJ surgery. This probably ends his career.
No Third Place Books event tonight
Hey all, I’m back from the hospital with instructions not to do anything for a couple days, so tonight’s event will get rescheduled. Sorry, I was really looking forward to this, but there’s just no way. Further bulletins as events warrant, but I’m going to go get some rest.
News and Notes
Larry Stone has the story of the Mariners getting a beatdown yesterday, as well as a notebook where Johjima compared the gyroball to a cut fastball or a slider. Also in the Times, Jay Buhner and Dino Rossi are now minority owners of the Everett Aquasox.
Over in the P-I, Art Thiel asks why the M’s didn’t go after Daisuke Matsuzaka, but he never really answers the question. In fairness to the M’s, no one expected a $52 million posting fee, so even if they had attempted to get in the running, it’s unlikely they would have won. Also, John Hickey talks about tonight’s Game Of The Year candidate. Felix vs Matsuzaka – it doesn’t get much better than this.
Which reminds me: Happy Felix Day. Every day should be Felix day.
In other random tidbits from around the majors, USSM-endorsed offseason pitching acquisition #1 Rodrigo Lopez made his second start of the year last night, going 7 innings and allowing 1 run, bringing his ERA all the way up to 1.38. He’s given up 11 hits, walked 2, and struck out 7 in 13 innings. The Rockies are paying him $4 million this season, or half what the Mariners are paying Jeff Weaver.
USSM-endorsed offseason pitching acquisition #2 Claudio Vargas made his first start of the year last night, going 5 innings, allowing 5 hits, 1 ER, 0 BB, and 9 K.
Alex Rodriguez has had 28 at-bats through the first 7 games. The Mariners have 120 at-bats through their first four games. Alex Rodriguez has twice as many homers (6 to 3), more extra base hits (9 to 8), the same amount of walks (5), and the same amount of RBIs (15) as the M’s entire team. By himself.
But that’s okay, because we still have Felix.
Late Edit: Michael Garciaparra claimed by Phillies off waivers. Now he can hang out with Greg Dobbs. When Gillick gets a mancrush on a bad player, he doesn’t let go.
An Apology
To Mr. Tuiasosopo,
I’d like to make a formal apology. A year ago, I wrote an article in The Hardball Times Annual that rated you one of the more likely minor leaguers to have a breakout year. Instead, you struggled badly, and that’s being kind. Perhaps in return for making me look foolish, I’ve made a habit of pointing out to people that you had an historically bad season in Double-A last year. I questioned your ability to hit to everyone that asked, and repeatedly wrote that a poor 2007 campaign could effectively end your career. It’s no surprise that I’ve been pretty skeptical of your offensive abilities in the last six months, and I didn’t think you’d hit much this year either.
Now that your double tonight gave you more this season (5) than you had in your entire Double-A stint last year, I’m ready to admit I was wrong. It took all of one week for you to convince me that it may have just been the overly aggressive promotion, and not a lack of talent, that caused you to struggle so badly last year.
So, Matt, I’m sorry for doubting you. Please don’t stop hitting.
Thanks,
Dave
USSM slowness and geekery
I spent about two hour during today’s game when things were really bad working on making some more performance enhancements, but I’m still worried about tomorrow. I’ll keep at it – getting this right is really tough, frustrating work. Also, please buy the book k thanks bye Read more