Jones spent Super Bowl Sunday being poked and prodded
Hickey o’er at the PI reported Jones was in Baltimore for his physical yesterday. It probably means we’ll hear the announcement today or tomorrow.
I almost don’t see what the point of having comments open would be: is there anything new to say about the trade itself or how crazy this whole thing’s been? I feel like we should just come up with a sheet of stock comments you can refer to easily — anti/pro/neutral, numbered
p1) This is a good trade
a1) This is a horrible trade
n1) We won’t know if it’s a good trade for a while
p2) They’re just prospects
a2) Bedard is just a veteran
…
and so on. Then you could just say “a1. a2, a3, a4.” and the next person can say p1. p2. p3. Save keystrokes all around.
Update: Baker chimes in that Jones is in Baltimore today:
It took a while, but we’ve finally gotten it confirmed that Adam Jones is indeed in Baltimore taking his physical today. Would have liked to have this out to you last night, but unfortunately, we could not get anyone to verify it. Finally, we can. We’d rather be a few hours late than be wrong. Remember, how often folks had said Jones was in Baltimore prior to last night?
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a1
and a2 because i like the new meme!
#94 – Bingo. Generating productive players from a farm system is very similar to a lot of other value-creating decision systems. Success (and consistency of that success) is mainly the product of two factors – A) your depth of insight, and B) the breadth of application of that insight. Part A would be based on your scouting, drafting, analysis and the like. Part B would be how many players you get to select for your farm system – either by draft, trade, signing, etc.
This is where the “they’re just prospects, nobody knows how they are going to pan out” argument really annoys me. If that is the case, then Part A (insight) is really small, and you need to make part B huge to have any success. This means hoarding as many prospects as possible in order to generate any successful ones. Of course, if you think the road to a successful franchise is through acquiring Proven Veteran talent, then I guess it doesn’t matter.
Poor Andy MacPhail. He negotiates a terrific trade and then it’s like pulling teeth to get his slimy lawyer owner to okay it. No wonder the Orioles haven’t improved their club in the last few years. It’d take most of any player’s career for the O’s to sign off on a deal.
It’s sort of like falling off the roof. You know right away it’s a bad idea, but you have to wait a little while to learn exactly how it turns out.
Right, but it’s still a bad idea right out of the gate. As such: a1
a1. I mean, really, a1.
Sick. And I have to p2.
Hasn’t that been shown NOT to be the case these past few years?
Too bad Corco’s banned ’round these parts. He’d probably chime in w/a B-11…
83, the Haren trade is what this trade is based on and not the Santana one, hence the higher price.
Funny thing, msb: Lookout Landing and I had a surprisingly lengthy discussion on this.
Okay, maybe I shouldn’t have used the term “post-mortem”.
I just wanted to indicate a sense of finality, not any sense of whether the trade was still under evaluation.
According to Baker GS52 has also been in Baltimore for his physical today. And he is being flipped to Atlanta for Lillibridge.
Where do you get that Sherrill is being traded for Lillibridge? That’s not on Baker’s blog.
n1, a2…signing an extension may change things. I’ve been looking at his age 28 comps and they all flamed out quickly or never really dominated again.
If I have to destroy a a lovely piece of meat with steak sauce, I would prefer Heinz 57. Unfortunately, all the Safeco vendors use is A1.
I have been looking toward this trade with the sickening inevitability I felt about the Patriots winning the Super Bowl. I sure hope I am just as wrong about this!
Wishhiker-
Really? I’m only looking at his PECOTA card from last year and I’ve got (in order) Gary Peters (’65), Bob Kuzava (’51), Mark Langston (1988), Bob Gibson (1964), Juan Guzman (’95), Mel Parnell (’50), Mike Flanagan (’80), Bob Lemon (’49) and Whitey Ford (’57). That’s a pretty impressive list of comps. And that was before his year last year. I don’t have this years speadsheet because I’m at work and don’t have Excel on this computer.
a1, pu?
112: That’s an inside joke from Lookout Landing. Some 16 year old posted it in like 15 different places, word for word, no capitalization and it came from a source about as credible as I am.
The baseball-reference.com similars through age 28 are: Donovan Osborne, Bud Black, Trevor Wilson, Chris Nabholz, Roy Parmelee, Cal Eldred, Justin Thompson, Bill Hallahan, Dig Stigman, and Marty Pattin.
Marty Pattin! Seattle Pilot. Decent pitcher (not for the Pilots, though). Don’t think I’d trade a good young outfielder, a closer, and 3/5 of a potential starting rotation for him.
wonder how long will it take Angelos and his magnifying glass to go over Adam and The Pear’s full-body scans …
Wow. That’s a rough bunch, isn’t it? Because Bob Gibson is in his PECOTA comps I’m going with that. =)
oh, and Baker & Stone now have Sherrill prodded & on the plane back to Phoenix
So now what do I do with my super-sweet Adam-Jones-making-a-diving-catch-in-an-Aquasox-uniform bobblehead I conned my six-year-old out of last summer? I’ll be in Baltimore for the M’s series the first week of the season so I might just see how much I can get for it outside Camden. It’s gotta be worth at least a couple of stadium beers.
I didn’t look at PECOTA, but the absolute worst I found were these…
According to Baseball Reference.com the most similar pitchers through age 28:
1. Donovan Osborne (976)
2. Bud Black (971)
3. Trevor Wilson (970)
4. Chris Nabholz (969)
5. Roy Parmelee (963)
6. Cal Eldred (962)
7. Justin Thompson (961)
8. Bill Hallahan (961)
9. Dick Stigman (959)
10. Marty Pattin (958)
#1, Osborne, never pitched 100 innings again
#2, Black, pitched only 324 innings in his next 3 years
#3, Wilson, had only 90 innings left in him
#4, Nabholz, never pitched again in the MLB
#5, Parmelee, pitched only 411 innings over 3 years after, never dominating again.
#6, Eldred, had only one season where he pitched 140 innings after though he played until he was 37
#7, Thompson, had 1 2/3 IP left in him
#8, Hallahan, had 1 All-Star appearance, and 2 years where I’d consider him an ace
#9, Stigman, had 151 innings over 2 years left in him never really dominating again
And #10, Pattin, had only 3 years where he pitched 150+ innings in his next 9
Steve T…Missed that you had posted the list from Baseball Reference, but it’s good to share some of the numbers anyway…Scary list of comps there anyway, not that it means much more than any other speculation. He could be absolutely fine, never missing more than a start or 2 in a season for another 8+ years and win a few Cy Youngs.
I didn’t like the Garcia trade at the time for 2 reasons.
1 is that they traded a high profile pitcher for several players without getting a pitcher in return.
2 is that particular pitcher had a link back to Langston and the Ace for Ace chain that went all the way back to 1984 (20 years at the time of the trade) was also broken by not getting pitching. I was hoping that Reed would have gotten included in this deal to reinvigorate the string. That is, with a slightly different set of prospects not including Jones.
It would help me, and perhaps front offices, if there were more than one word for prospect when referring to those mentioned as possible trade bait. It seems unrealistic to refer to, say, Jones, Tillman, and Triunfel as prospects in any meaningful sense.
The meaning is too broad–all prospect means in this case is three guys who don’t have much or any major league experience. Nothing to do with potential, prospective chances for stardom, or even accomplishments in the minor leagues.
It’s a little like referring to Babe Ruth, Kirby Puckett, and Phil Rizzuto as Hall of Famers and assuming some sort of equivalence in talent because they all fit within the set of players identified as Hall of Famers.
n1 is the only true answer. We can speculate all we want, but none of us know for sure. I personally like the trade, however.
I have only one thing to say. Every fifth day I do not have Horam staring lost and bewildered back at me through the TV. You all know the look! It starts around the second inning. Great the pitching is better! Who the hell is gonna score any runs? Were gonna play small ball, but the one guy beside Ichiro that can actually steal a bag just left to Baltimore. Go figure.
from Kirby Arnold
“Adam Jones and George Sherrill of the Mariners were in Baltimore for their physicals on Monday, but Erik Bedard wasn’t expected to have his physical until Tuesday at the earliest. As of Monday night, Bedard hadn’t ben told to leave for Seattle, the Baltimore Sun said … neither Tillman nor Butler had been told anything officially from the Mariners as of early Monday evening. That came from a Mariners teammate who’d spent most of the afternoon bowling with Tillman and Butler in Peoria, Ariz., where they’re all working out at the Mariners’ spring training facility.”
125 – Sorry, but a 17 year old who hasn’t even seen AA yet can’t be classified as anything but a prospect.
What do you want to call him? “A potential star?” “A star in the making?” “A kid with talent past his years, but still needs some minor league refining?”
It doesn’t really matter, they all mean the same thing.
a1…
Jake N.:”. . . Were gonna play small ball, but the one guy beside Ichiro that can actually steal a bag just left to Baltimore.”
How does The Ignitor being dealt not deserve its own thread?
I was looking up “bad Mariner trades” and came across this USSM doozie.
I’m pretty sure AJ is still among the top five most valuable Mariners. And if there was an up-to-date list I would think Sherrill, Tillman and (probably) Butler would be in the top 25 as well.
Also Yahoo! readers are smart.
I keep reading statements about the Bedard trade that go something like this:
“The Mariners are losing Jones, but they have Wladimir Balentien waiting in the wings in case the Wilkerson experiment fails or Jose Vidro grinds to a halt.”
Do you this this statement has any merit?
“The Mariners are losing Jones, but they have Wladimir Balentien waiting in the wings in case the Wilkerson experiment fails or Jose Vidro grinds to a halt.â€
Do you this this statement has any merit?
Well, we may be losing penicillin, but we still have ritualistic chanting in case animal sacrifice or blood-letting fails.
#128. We don’t have the vocabulary to make meaningful distinctions. If we classify Jones as a prospect, then Triunfel isn’t, certainly not to the same degree. I’d call him a young minor leaguer with promise and be done with it.
Jones is a prospect.
Or Jones is a major league talent without at bats in the majors and Triunfel is a prospect.
Lumping them into the same category seduces one into making lazy and inaccurate equivalences.
Can this trade please just go through or get axed? The suspense is killing me.
Just a FEW of the headlines of the past two weeks…
* O’s ace not in Seattle yet
* Even Batista waiting for trade to happen
* Bedard trade almost complete
* Reports: Bedard trade might be closer to reality
* Orioles, M’s look to clear hurdle for Bedard trade
* Report: O’s options are Bedard extension, trade
* Source: Angelos yet to greenlight Bedard trade
* Bedard trade talks heat up between O’s, Mariners
* Bedard trade talks still in limbo
* Deal or no deal? O’s expect resolution soon
*
* MacPhail: Angelos didn’t veto proposed Bedard trade
*Angelos’ involvement could be delaying Bedard deal
* MacPhail: No agreement with Mariners on Bedard trade
* Is Jones-Bedard trade a done deal?
* M’s deal for Bedard on hold
* Bedard to Mariners getting closer
* Seattle not alone in Bedard hunt
* O’s-Mariners trade talks stall
* O’s deny deal in place with Seattle for Bedard
* Mariners ask Jones to return to U.S.
* Jones-Bedard trade in the works