Congratulations Ichiro & Beltre
Ichiro and Beltre won Gold Gloves today…but so did Michael Young, so take them for what they’re worth.
Future Forty 3.0
After a too long absence, and thanks to the hard work of Conor Glassey, the Future Forty has returned. It’s also been overhauled, as you’ll notice from surfing over there.
Obviously, the newest thing is the graphical representation of the prospects. Rather than just an endless string of numbers in a list, I figured it would be helpful to see these guys on a chart that show just how close to the majors each one is and how we’re projecting their talent to turn into production. Since the horizontal axis is based on Wins Above Replacement, the best prospects will be found on the right side of the graph.
We’ve also got a table below the charts that contains all the relevant data, as well as links to each player’s FanGraphs page. I think you’ll find those helpful.
Okay, so that’s the stuff about the Future Forty. But, obviously, you guys care a lot more about the players on it, so let’s dive into that.
From looking at the two charts, there should be a couple obvious things that stand out; there’s a pretty strong group of position players that are near major league ready, but there’s next to no pitching for the next few years. In the next two years, the M’s could potentially introduce three or four new everyday players into their line-up, but there isn’t an impact pitching prospect anywhere close to the majors. There are some talented arms in the system, but they’re years away from helping.
Carlos Triunfel remains the system’s best prospect. You’re going to hear some negative stuff about him from Baseball America, because the Cal League coaches weren’t very impressed with his work ethic, especially during his miserable first half. But he made some pretty big strides in the second half, and he’s beginning to grow into his power. He hit a monster home run off Max Scherzer in the Arizona Fall League a few weeks ago, and there aren’t many kids his age with his hitting ability. His long term position is still a question mark (second or third base remain most likely), and he needs to continue to take steps forward with his power and attitude, but he’s the most likely star in the system.
After Triunfel, there’s the group of guys we talked about quite a bit during the 2010 roster series – Clement, Balentien, Halman, Saunders, Moore, Valbuena, Tuiasosopo, and Raben. None of them look like all-stars, but that’s a pretty nice crop of position players to rebuild around. Even if you only get two or three good players from the entire group, it’s a head start to having every day players that can contribute for close to the league minimum.
Down the line, there’s another solid group of talented youngsters, as the M’s continue to reap the rewards of their international scouting. DeJesus, Noriega, Nunez, and Morban are all well thought of and were signed for significant figures by the M’s. They’re all a long way from Seattle, but they represent the best of the wave after the one coming.
On the pitching side of things, it’s Aumont and a bunch of questions. And, to be fair, Aumont still has quite a bit of work to do himself. There are guys with good velocity, such as Juan Ramirez, and guys like Michael Pineda who opened some eyes in 2008, but they all come with legitimate concerns. Thankfully, Fontaine was able to reload with a quantity of pitching arms in the draft, as often the best way to develop a good major league pitcher is to just accumulate a lot of minor league pitchers. The attrition of young arms is so high that you’d certainly rather have an organization with position player strength, like the Mariners currently have, but you don’t want to be this weak in upper level pitching talent either. The Bedard trade really killed the system’s close-to-the-majors pitching depth.
Overall, though, the farm system is in good shape. It’s probably in the 10-15 range in baseball, and with potentially four picks in the top 50 this summer along with the hope for maturation in some of the younger prospects, it’s pretty easy to imagine the M’s sitting here with a top 5 farm system a year from now. The major league team stinks, but there’s help on the way.
Scraps
If you recall, valued USSM commenter Scraps had a serious stroke. Reading through the update thread, I noted happily today that he’s on real food, he’s standing… it’s happy progress.
Pavano
As you probably know from reading for a while, I’m a bit of a geek for the roster-construction aspect of teams: how a team is built, how the pieces fit, finding spaces to make the most of players, platooning, all that good stuff. I’m one of the people who sits around wondering whether it’s worthwhile to assemble a first-base defensive platoon, or what 4th outfielder best suits the particular talents of a team.
And I love my rehab projects and back-end roster gambles, which brings me to Pavano. I saw today that the Yankees opted out of their deal, which makes him a free agent.
First, the disclaimer: I don’t know Pavano. I don’t know if he’s been a slacker, if he really wants to play, if he’s been a crybaby and not all that injured. I don’t know if he’s inherently fragile. These are all issues that have to be weighed by those with better information than myself. In particular, how well he can still throw and whether his injuries have sapped him of talent is a question for people who see him pitch.
And really, for all the advances in sports medicine, I can’t think of another player that’s missed so much time for so long and come back to be as effective as their height. That said…
This may be a really interesting gamble contract. He’s coming off a massive mistake contract with New York, where they paid him $40m over 4 years and produced essentially nothing. There’s almost certainly going to be a repulsion effect where GMs will be reluctant to get into the press signing someone coming off a bust contract.
But he’ll be 33 next year. That’s not so old. He’s a flyballer, and Safeco Field supports flyballers (as would an upgraded defense in the outfield). In 2003-2004 he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, and his contract with the Yankees didn’t look all that crazy in the context of other deals at the time.
I don’t know. Heck, Esteban Loaiza looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2003. And again, I certainly don’t know what he looks like right now, and I don’t have answers to the other questions. But I’m extremely interested to see how this turns out. Giving Pavano a short cheap deal may be money wasted and it may end up being the bargain of the off-season.
Manny? The M’s don’t need Manny right now. They need reclamation projects like Pavano to work out. They need to find a couple really good marginal pickups to get the team to respectability next year. And this is why I’m a roster construction geek.
Oh Please Oh Please Oh Please
In the spirit of spreading rumors that are unlikely to materialize into anything, but that at least make you beg for it to have some shred of truth, comes this gem from the Kansas City Star:
The Royals and Mariners did discuss a Billy Butler-for-Betancourt swap before the 2007 season. Seattle rejected the offer before Moore acquired Tony Peña as a replacement for Angel Berroa.
What’s changed?
The Mariners have a new general manager in Jack Zduriencik. They lost 101 games last season. Betancourt’s development plateaued over the last two years. And Seattle can use some punch after scoring fewer runs last season than all but one American League team.
It’s a long shot that also produced claims by both clubs that no talks have taken place.
Even so, the Royals are more likely to trade Butler after acquiring first baseman Mike Jacobs in a trade with Florida. They are also seeking a middle infielder, preferably a shortstop, which would enable them to shift Mike Aviles to second base.
Plus all signs point to alternatives in the free-agent market — such as Rafael Furcal, Edgar Renteria and Orlando Hudson — moving beyond the club’s fiscal reach.
Moore admitted, “We really don’t have a lot of flexibility, payroll-wise.”
Billy Butler for Yuniesky Betancourt? I couldn’t say yes fast enough.
Of course, nothing’s going to come of it, but at least it put a smile on my face.
Larry Stone on the M’s at ESPN
Mariner winter forecast. Also offers the Angels version, the A’s version, and the Rangers version. Not much new to Mariner fans, but reading this last paragraph
Zduriencik is credited with hastening Milwaukee’s turnaround by masterminding a series of strong drafts. But Zduriencik has a tough road ahead in Seattle: The Mariners, with an $118 million payroll last year, are saddled with bad contracts and don’t appear to have much top-end talent in the minor leagues ready to make an impact — especially after giving up so much in their ill-fated Bedard trade. One of Zduriencik’s first decisions is to find a new manager. He could re-unite with former Milwaukee skipper Ned Yost.
is still enough to make me wince. A reminder of the scope of the disaster and then Ned Yost? Nooooooooooo.
Larry LaRue Explains Rumor Mongering
Seriously, this is about as good an explanation as you’ll ever hear for why you shouldn’t get all wrapped up in the stuff that gets printed in the papers right now.
Among the dozens of assistant GMs wandering the halls of the St. Regis was Bob Boone.
Boone, the father of Bret and Aaron, is a former manager and once came to spring training for Seattle – and didn’t make the team.
Now, he’s with the Washington Nationals.
As he walked by a handsome, manly writer he knew well, Boone asked how things were going.“Would you like to be a managerial candidate in Seattle?” the writer asked.
“Sure, put me on the list,” Boone said.
So, GM Meeting Update!!
Bob Boone is a possible candidate for the vacant Mariners managerial job.
That’s how it works here….
He’s not kidding either. You’d need to own a salt mine in order to have enough grains to take these rumors with. However, LaRue’s blog has been pretty entertaining the last few days. You might say he finds the hotel where the GM meetings are being held to be a little bit overpriced…
No Gillick as M’s advisor
The Phillies signed him to stay on as advisor, with Amaro as the new GM. Hopefully this goes better than his time here in Seattle as special advisor. For us, at least, it means we avoid a potential power struggle here, which is good. Zduriencik deserves his chance to succeed or fail without that.
The 2010 Mariners Rotation
Continuing on in the series, looking at the internal candidates to fill the Mariners’ roster in two years, working off the assumption that 2010 is the next time the M’s will try to compete for the division title. If you missed the look at the infield or outfield last week, follow the links. Today, the rotation.
Number One Starter Felix Hernandez
Before I talk about Felix, let’s get this out of the way – the idea that a team has to have an established ace to contend is a load of crap. Most people would agree that the current crop of “aces” would include Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, John Lackey, and maybe a few people would argue for Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, or Carlos Zambrano. Regardless of the specifics, that’s basically your pool of guys who would be in the discussion.
Of those 12 guys, Beckett and Lackey are the only ones with World Series titles. Those guys have combined for something like 100 pitcher seasons, and 97% of the time, it has ended without a parade. The people who still believe that you build a baseball team by collecting a couple of top flight starting pitchers and ride them to victory are demonstrably wrong, so when people start crowing over the need for a #1 starter or an ace, just tune them out.
All that said, it would still be a pretty big upset if Felix wasn’t considered a legitimate ace, and quite possibly the best pitcher alive, in 2010. I know, there are a ton of people who are disappointed in his performance to date, but Felix is still way ahead of the curve – almost every pitcher in the Hall of Fame has had a worse start to their career than Felix has. His stuff is still top shelf, and if Zduriencik figures out how to put a decent defense behind him, the results will catch up. He’s literally the last thing on the roster we should be worried about.
Number Two to Number Four Starters: Brandon Morrow, Carlos Silva
For those of you who noticed there are only two names on the list, congratulations, you’ve identified a pretty significant issue that the M’s will have to address at some point in the next year. While there is a pretty significant crop of talented position player prospects in the upper levels of the farm system, the pitching depth at the Double-A and Triple-A levels suck. There’s just nothing there, which is why there are only two arms listed for three rotation slots.
For all his talent, Morrow is still something of a wild card. His command still needs quite a bit of work, because when 40% of your pitches miss the strike zone, you simply aren’t going to be able to work deep enough into games to be a big asset. His secondary stuff also needs to take a step forward to give him a weapon against left-handed hitters. And he’ll need to significantly increase his innings total in order to get through 30 starts in a season. But the raw ability is certainly there, and his upside means that the organization should do whatever possible to make his development as likely as possible. They’ll need him to turn into a middle of the rotation workhorse if they’re going to win in 2010, and an emphasis on outfield defense would go a long way to helping him have the confidence to pound the strike zone, which will be the key to his success.
As for Silva, he’s not going anywhere with that contract, so the team will have to hope they can as much from him as possible. And while he was pretty abysmal to watch in 2008, we also have to recognize that performance as an outlier – the results simply don’t match the underlying abilities, and it’s extremely likely that he’ll regress back towards being a marginally useful pitch-to-contact innings eater. Like with Morrow, however, he’ll need an improved defense behind him, and while he has next to no upside, he throws enough strikes to be an innings sponge with the right teammates around him. When you separate your view of Silva from his paycheck, and realize that his poor ’08 performance was based mostly on things that aren’t consistent from year to year, it’s easier to see him as a potentially useful part of the 2010 roster. That doesn’t mean the team shouldn’t dump him if they have the chance, but considering the likelihood of that is pretty slim, we should probably prepare for a few more years.
Even if he does return to form and Morrow improves, however, this team still needs another solid middle of the rotation starter. They don’t need any more established veterans, though – find a good arm who hasn’t broken through yet and attempt to buy low, preferably in trade. There aren’t enough good arms with upside in the organization right now, and adding several should be a priority.
Number Five Starter: Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ryan Feierabend, R.A. Dickey
RRS is a fun pitcher to root for, and a walking example of how easy it is to find back of the rotation starters who can get a lot of flyball outs and give you 150 to 180 decent innings for nothing. But we need to be honest with our expectations – his upside isn’t that much greater than Silva’s, and even though he’s young, there’s not much room for growth here. The only real path to stardom for a guy with his repertoire is to have exceptional command, but RRS just doesn’t – he misses the zone too much for a guy who doesn’t have knockout stuff. His extreme flyball nature will work well in Safeco, but not so well on the road. He profiles almost perfectly as a #5 starter for the M’s, though, and as long as he stays healthy, he should be a nice fit at the back of the rotation.
Feierabend and Dickey provide depth, though neither have shown enough in order to demand a real long look. Feierabend’s change-up is his only major league pitch, and Dickey’s still trying to perfect a knuckler that doesn’t knuckle often enough. Both have batting practice fastballs, and unless they take a big step forward, don’t expect either one to be a real contributor to the 2010 team.
Realistically, we’ve likely excluded two of the six names we’ve covered, and we’d love to be able to dump one of the remaining four if we could find someone who would pay a decent chunk of his contract. That leaves three starting pitcher in the organization that we actually want to be here, which is obviously not enough. Because of the presence of the overpaid veterans, the team shouldn’t have a problem finding enough arms for 2009, but for 2010, it becomes a real problem. The pursuit of a couple of decent long term starting pitching options should begin immediately – it’s much better to be proactive in finding good value arms than trying to react and patch a hole to fill out the roster a year from now.
Gillick team ages
Using Baseball-reference data:
Chart of the ages of Pat Gillick Teams