Why The M’s Can’t Platoon The DH
Given all the reports that the M’s are looking for a right-handed hitter and the never ending thirst for power, you will undoubtedly see suggestions that the M’s should sign a guy like Jack Cust or Jonny Gomes, both decent hitters who were let loose by their respective teams today. While it’s a nice enough idea, though, given the current roster, the team can’t really afford to run any platoons. Here’s why.
On the position player side of the ledger, there are 11 spots basically committed to a player, or at least a player type with some kind of current stand-in:
Adam Moore and Rob Johnson are the catchers.
Jose Lopez, Jack Wilson, Chone Figgins, and Jack Hannahan are infielders.
Franklin Gutierrez, Ichiro Suzuki, Michael Saunders (or whoever they get to play LF), and Bill Hall are outfielders.
Ken Griffey Jr is the pinch hitter.
That’s 11 guys, giving the team two open spots on the non-pitching roster. And, right now, there’s no first baseman or designated hitter in the group. You add two guys to fill those open spots, and you’re full at 13. The last two guys added to the roster can’t be part-time players, or they’d be forcing one of the current bench players (Hannahan, Hall, Griffey) into regular playing time. And that’s probably not something the team should be interested in doing.
This is the cost of carrying Junior. You can’t sign a Marcus Thames or a Johnny Gomes to platoon with Branyan at DH when youve already decided to go with 12 pitchers and you’re using one of your four bench spots on a pinch hitter. You can’t do it – the other three bench spots have to go to a backup catcher, a backup infielder, and a backup outfielder. Even with the versatility provided by guys like Figgins and Hall, you can’t justify having three designated hitters on the roster, which is what it would take to run a platoon there.
If you want to argue that they should carry 11 pitchers in order to free up the ability to platoon at 1B or DH, you can make that argument. But in the end, there is little reason to believe the M’s are willing to make that kind of decision. They ran 12 pitchers all of last year despite leading the league in run prevention. The odds of them being willing to go with one fewer pitcher in a year where the staff is expected to give up more runs are just really low.
So, don’t get too excited about possible platoons in Seattle. We traded that right to keep Griffey around for another year. This is the price of team chemistry.
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If only Gomes could play a little defense.
He’s not even that good of a hitter. His CHONE projection for 2010 is +2 runs per 150 games. Chris Shelton is projected at +1/150, for comparison.
Dave,
I haven’t seen anywhere that they have stated that the pitching staff will be 12 men. Is there a story I have missed?
Hopefully the players Jack signs to play 1B and DH are good enough that Don will not have to platoon.
From Griffey’s Return, What It Means
TP,
Usually this isn’t announced, but it comes out in the Spring Training shake down of the team.
Dave, do you sense a trade is coming or is Jack just going to fill out the rest of the roster with free agents?
Something like Nick Johnson, Lackey and Branyan. It seems like he is still missing a few players to beat the Angels. I know he is far from done but, just wondering what your thoughts were.
What if Jack Hannahan were scratched from the list?
The versatility of Bill Hall and Chone Figgins covers us enough as it is. Bill Hall can play OF, 3B, SS, 2B, and he could probably pick it at 1B if he had to. While Chone Figgins could play OF, 3B, and 2B.
Saying Bill Hall is an OF and Chone Figgins is an IF is simply reducing their actual value. Both can and have played the OF and IF.
That’s pretty much what I thought, Mark. But Dave stated it like it was a foregone conclusion. Hence my query.
You forgot one pertinent fact Dave. Griffey will end up with around 350 plate appearances next year. While it is unfortunate, I will not believe otherwise until I see it.
Even if you kept Hannahan you absolutely could platoon the DH.
If you sign either Nick Johnson or Russell Branyan to play 1B, you have one more roster spot.
Then you could sign one of the following: Johnny Gomes, Marcus Thames, Garrett Atkins, or Jack Cust
If you sign one of the righties, you could platoon them with Jack Hannahan/Griffey. And if you signed Jack Cust, you could platoon him with Bill Hall.
It might not be the ideal situation at DH, but it could be done
But Dave stated it like it was a foregone conclusion.
It is a foregone conclusion. The team is going to carry 12 pitchers.
What if Jack Hannahan were scratched from the list?
Then you wouldn’t have a backup shortstop.
Saying Bill Hall is an OF and Chone Figgins is an IF is simply reducing their actual value.
Jack stated flat out that they expected Figgins to play one position next year. The team is not going to build a roster that requires him to bounce around the field all year. He’s going to be the starting 3B (or, less likely, 2B) and play that position 95 percent of the time.
Hall hasn’t spent any meaningful time at shortstop in four years. He was on the roster last year when Jack Wilson got hurt, and they never even bothered to give him so much as a glance. He’s not a shortstop anymore.
You have to have a backup shortstop on the team who you can play with some regularity. Jack Wilson has averaged ~375 PA per year for the last two years. He’s got a ton of nagging injuries, and so you have to plan to give him scheduled days off.
Hannahan’s on the team unless the M’s acquire someone else who can play SS. And that guy would just take his roster spot, not freeing up any room to platoon.
If you sign one of the righties, you could platoon them with Jack Hannahan/Griffey. And if you signed Jack Cust, you could platoon him with Bill Hall.
When your solution is to platoon one of Hannahan/Hall/Griffey at DH, your solution is not worth pursuing.
“When your solution is to platoon one of Hannahan/Hall/Griffey at DH, your solution is not worth pursuing.”
So true so true. That is why it is so sad that that will be the most likely platoon.
Clearly, bringing back Branyan and signing Nick Johnson to occupy the 1B/DH slots would be the M’s best tandem in order to contend in 2010.
However, if a guy like Lackey is signed, the M’s are going to be low on money and may have to consider platooning Jr with a guy like Gomes, Atkins, or Thames. I dont like the idea any more than you do Dave, but all three guys kill left handed pitching and would be an upgrade over Sweeney.
This wouldn’t be a favorable situation for the M’s to find themselves in, but I don’t necessarily think it would be a complete failure either. Plus, I guess this would give Griffey something to do all day other than tickle Ichiro
Seems like everything you have written since the Winter Meetings has been in kind of a negative light. Why so sour?
The Mariners can add 1.0 wins to their 2010 team by spending less than $500.
1. Carry 11 pitchers.
2. Have someone not named Don Wakamatsu feeding Wakamatsu in-game decisions.
Ta-da!
However, if a guy like Lackey is signed, the M’s are going to be low on money and may have to consider platooning Jr with a guy like Gomes, Atkins, or Thames.
We picked up Russ Branyan last year for pocket change. The objective should be to find the next Russ Branyan, not to give a player who doesn’t deserve a starting job a starting job because he used to be a decent player.
To put it another way: Jack Hannahan has better WAR since he arrived in MLB than Junior, and has thus contributed more to his teams on the field. The only reason anyone considers Junior a better player than Hannahan (and more worthy of being in an everyday lineup) is that people still think that Junior turning in HOF-level performances from 1989-2000 is relevant to his on the field performance today.
This wouldn’t be a favorable situation for the M’s to find themselves in, but I don’t necessarily think it would be a complete failure either.
Sweeney wOBA, 2009: .336
Thames lifetime wOBA: .336
Gomes: .344
It might make a little difference, but not as much as you think, and keep in mind that impatient RH pull hitters are exactly the kind of hitters Safeco completely kills. We’d be doing well to get half a win.
Atkins is more interesting… as a potential 3B, assuming you can trade Lopez for someone to clear a spot for a 1B. The problem is that you’d be worried about going from Denver to Safeco (read: Cirillo-itis), but if you got him for the right price…
Seems like everything you have written since the Winter Meetings has been in kind of a negative light. Why so sour?
There’s nothing negative in this post. It’s an explanation of how the roster formation makes platooning at 1B/DH impossible. There’s no opinion offered on whether that is good or bad. It’s just reality.
It is not surprising to see yet another thread on this site devoted to how awful the Ken Griffey Jr. re-signing was.
Seriously, show me one place in this post where there’s any commentary about whether re-signing Griffey is good or bad. You can’t.
And Griffey as a bench player… well, if the Mariner organization thinks he deserves a position on the team until he wants to hang them up, thanks to his past contributions and his attitude in the clubhouse, if he’s a bench player getting 100-200 PAs, he’s not a terrible drag on the team. It does hurt the team’s ability to carry extra players on the roster who can be more useful than a hitter who doesn’t hit very well… but your average MLB bench player IS a replacement-level player, so Griffey being that isn’t so terrible. It’s just that STARTING a 0-0.5 WAR player is punting 1/9th of your lineup.
Has there been any more rumblings about trading for Ryan Doumit lately? As far as flexibility in the positions for which the team still lacking coverage, he’s a catcher who has played a little 1B, and could probably benefit from some generous spells at DH.
Would the resignng of Beltre change this at all? Bringing him back seems like it would provIde for more flexibility on the rest of the roster. I assume he would replace JoLo in Dave’s scenario as it would make absolutely no sense to Cathy both of them.
That would be legendarily awful. I’d rather have to deal with Vidro for a season.
To add on, the question, I assume, came from an assumption that a DH platoon is always a good thing, which it isn’t. Regardless of opinion it’s solely something to be judged on a case by case, team by team basis.
*carry, not Cathy. Damn iPhone.
And to add to my second point, a good non-platoon DH situation: Gar in his prime.
Aye. If the decision to carry 12 pitchers no matter what is based on hard-line ideology, than the inability to platoon DH is not only the price of team chemistry itself. Its also the price of inflexible management.
You may not have meant it in a bad way, but you don’t see how this comment could be seen as a commentary on the re-signing of Griffey? Especially with what we know about how you feel chemistry is over-rated? C’mon Dave.
We can derive some pretty good evaluations of on-the-field performance these days. What we can’t do is derive any evaluations of “chemistry”. We just kind of have to go “?????” and leave it as an unknown.
The difference between Griffey and, say, Ryan Langerhans (a somewhat better player, and a pretty decent bench player) as the last bench player is around half a win/5 runs. At that point, sure, maybe team chemistry and keeping Griffey around due to the front office feeling they will let the guy play in a Mariner uniform as long as he desires IS worth punting those 5 runs. It’s a pretty small decision at the margins… but it does mean you lose some roster flexibility.
Is a happy clubhouse with a HOFer who wants to be a Mariner and a team leader worth 5 runs? I don’t know for sure, and I am not sure there is any analytical method that CAN let us know for sure, but it’s small enough a difference that I’ll go “OK, well, whatever”. I can understand the logic of saying “hey, we think a happy clubhouse with people who buy into what our GM and manager preach, and a HOFer reinforcing that, is important”, and it’s not like if it came down to it, a player comparable to Ryan Langerhans couldn’t be had later in the season…
What’s the alternative here? Are we never to note that Griffey is on the roster (except pro-Griffey fun stories) for fear of making people think we’re down on him? If we list next year’s salary commitments, should we leave him off?
It’s a done deal now, we’re remarking on it as such.
I don’t disagree with any of this analysis, but I would not be at all surprised if Wakamatsu does.
Griffey (and Sweeney) got oh so many more at-bats than we would have given them. I don’t think the M’s brought Griffey back just to be the 25th man on the bench. I can easily see him in a DH platoon with Cust or the like.
Frankly, if the M’s spend their money on Nick Johnson and Lackey, then find a cheap half-decent platoon partner for Griffey at DH, I won’t even complain all that loudly.
If M’s want a right-handed hitter,I think they will sign a player like Gomes for DH or Cameron(Bryd)for LF.
If we’re talking about signing an impatient RH power hitter to platoon at DH, we might as well just go for a historic Mariner killer and talk about bringing in Vlad Guerrero to platoon with Junior. 😉
I’m becoming a little confused with the argument here. Gomes numbers were horrible compared to a player were shopping, Jose Lopez. OBP, HR, RBI, BA, all significantly less for Gomes. Gomes was also in the NL and has injury problems.
Hannahan, however it’s spelled, just got non-tendered. How many awful hitters with non-existent upside do we want to sign?
Lackey will not be signed by the M’s.
Deal with it.
If you don’t want to deal with it, then you explain to Felix why Lackey is worth $100 mil and Felix isn’t.
Sign J Bay, re-sign Branyan, and then trade for a #2 starter.
Griffey’s numbers at Seafeco for ’09 were actually quite good. Was this just some kind of unrepeatable statistical aberration, or is it worth considering using Griffey as a home field DH?
If anyone thinks we need further evidence that the M’s have no intention of going with 11 pitchers, consider that they non-tendered Langerhans yesterday. If they’d had any willingness whatsoever to consider a six-man bullpen and a five-man bench, they would have kept Langerhans around and let the roster sort itself out in ST, because he just wouldn’t have cost them all that much. The fact that they’ve already made the decision on Langerhans (which annoys me) indicates that they’ve already made the decision on the size of the pitching staff.
The interesting thing about platooning Griffey at DH is his splits weren’t righty/lefty last year so much as they were home/away. His line at Safeco was .268/.382/.548. Griffey was equally awful vs righties (.215) and lefties (.213) last year. So a platoon guy would be the guy playing on the road.
I’m kind of assuming that Griffey is the DH next year. I’ve read that Griffey was told to come to camp in shape this next year. I’m wondering if Zduriencik hasn’t told Griffey that he better be ready to play or he may hold his retirement party in March. Griffey retires and then the DH spot becomes a platoon between all the bench bats and whoever needs a day off from the field.
If Griffey can run his .268/.382/.548 line at home and on the road next year, I think that’s a productive DH.
I don’t see the M’s signing Johnson and Branyan, it’s either or. If Johnson signs elsewhere, the M’s sign Branyan, or Branyan ver 2.0 if Branyan is unreasonable. Griffey will be the DH until he proves that he can’t.
Nothing left to speculate about people… move along. (joking)
Trying to dig a little deaper just got me more confused. Griffey’s OPS last year was:
Home: .930
Road: .584
vs R: .718
vs L: .804
Does anyone have home R/L and road R/L splits available?
@Dave:
Bill Hall started 120+ games at SS as recently as 2006. Yes, that’s three years of not playing the position in the majors, but Hannahan’s played there twice, and in neither did he even start the game.
Why not call Bill Hall your backup shortstop?
See the conversation in this thread for Griffey’s home/road splits. It’s a small sample size and not a repeatable skill.
Let’s say you dump Hannahan for another 1B/DH type. Since Figgins is a regular, that makes Hall your lone backup for both the infield and outfield. If someone has a nagging injury and is day to day, that leaves the team with no backup at all. Moving Figgins just creates another hole at third. What if Hall himself if a bit banged up like last year? With only 1 roster spot available, you would have to bring in another versatile player on short notice or just keep running him out there with a sore quad.
He can’t.
Enter Stage Left: Josh Wilson
Fangraphs doesn’t list Josh Wilson as having played in the outfield.
Well, one things for sure. We will get the opportunity to see, won’t we? My bet if he’s washed up in Spring, he get’s cut at whatever deadline there is that he’s paid 10% of his contract then comes to Opening Day at Safeco and retires. If he’s productive and in non-pear shape at Spring Training… he’s the DH.
Assuming he’s the DH just means more money to spend on pitching. Sign Branyan/Johnson, whoever agrees first to our terms then drop the rest of the cabbage on arms.
There is no chance that Griffey is released during Spring training. If the Mariners wanted him to compete for a spot they wouldn’t have given him a $2.35M contract.
Liam is right…Griffey IS with the club. He’s not an invitee…he’s on the roster.
But I think it is a very VERY long shot that he is an every day DH. He has been an everyday player (600PA) exactly once since 2001. (although twice in that span he’s been in the 550-570 PA range).
500 PA’s might be a realistic scenario…then the question is whether those PA’s are productive or not.
Hall and Hannahan, or their equivalents, both make the squad.
Assuming Jr. isn’t the regular every day DH, they you get to add a BU catcher (I’m assuming that Hall, or his equivalent, is the 4th OF, too)…
and that gets you to 13 to go with the 9 starting bats.
Math will likely require that the Mariners carry 12 pitchers. Other than Felix, the M’s pitchers don’t generally pitch very deep into games. Thus, the bullpen has to pitch more often.
As for the DH platoon, I think that Mariners may be forced to platoon the DH due to payroll issues. Mike Salk (based on 0 sources) gives the Mariners a strong chance of signing Lackey. Based upon Dave’s estimate that the M’s had approximately $25 million to spend (and they already spent $9 million on Figgins), they will probably not have enough money to sign a 1B and a DH. That probably means that Griffey is platooning with somebody.
Platoon Partner Guess #1: Jose Lopez. This assumes that Tuiasosopo (“Tui”) claims the last roster spot. When Tui plays 2B, Lopez plays DH. If Tui does well, maybe this happens frequently.
Platoon Partner Guess #2: Our 1B (for sake of this post, I assume Branyan is the 1B). If Carp claims the last roster spot, Carp fills in for Branyan at 1B and Branyan plays DH. If Tui claims the last roster spot, Tui plays 2B, Lopez slides over to 1B and Branyan plays DH.
Platoon Partner Alternative Guesses: Works the same way as Guess #1 and Guess #2, but involves an outfielder.
I admit, these ideas are probably not ideal. But they look to be the likely cost of signing a high priced pitcher.
Frankly, if the M’s spend their money on Nick Johnson and Lackey, then find a cheap half-decent platoon partner for Griffey at DH, I won’t even complain all that loudly.
Will you complain if the Mariners are at the bottom of the league in runs scored again and once again can’t make it to the playoffs, and Griffey being a replacement-level DH getting the lion’s share of the ABs is clearly part of the problem?
To put it another way:
Carl Everett’s wOBA, 2005: .317
Jose Vidro’s wOBA, 2006: .326
Ken Griffey’s wOBA, 2008: .323
Granted, neither Everett nor Vidro were former HOFers or had people loving them as teammates…
I’ve read that Griffey was told to come to camp in shape this next year.
Aaargh. Just stop it. We’ve heard variations of “Hey, Griffey will be back to his old self as a hitter once he gets over his injuries” since 2000. It’s not really happened- he was close in 2005, but hasn’t been since.
Er, Junior’s 2009 wOBA. In any event, I think it’s pretty reasonable to think if Vidro and Everett were clearly inadequate answers as starting DH’s for the M’s, that Griffey is likely one as well.