M’s Sign Eric Byrnes
Okay, so, we finally know who the right-handed hitting outfielder is going to be – Eric Byrnes. I wrote up Byrnes last week, when he was DFA’d by the Diamondbacks, so the full take is over there. Short version – I like this.
Since Arizona is on the hook for his remaining salary, this is a league minimum deal. The Mariners have no obligation to keep Byrnes if he’s not healthy in spring training, or he looks old, or whatever. It’s a no-risk flyer on a guy who was a pretty darn good player a couple of years ago. His last two years have been terrible, but if he’s healthy, there should still be some juice left in the tank. If he and Langerhans split the LF time (with Bradley playing out there occasionally), the M’s should have a terrific defensive combo that could hit at something resembling a league average rate. And the platoon will cost them $900,000.
One quick note of caution, though – if you look at Byrnes ridiculously low BABIPs the last few years and think “it’s bad luck”, well, maybe, but not all of it is. Byrnes is historically awful at hitting infield flies. He hits enough pop-ups that the moon has taken out a restraining order against him. Pop-ups, of course, are easy to catch and never turn into hits. So you should expect Byrnes to run a below average BABIP. He’ll regress some, most likely, but don’t expect him to come anywhere near .300.
Who’s DH against RHP? I assume it would be Bradley if Saunders comes on. If not then what?
I’d love to see an updated take on this:
http://ussmariner.com/2009/12/29/left-field-and-dh/
So what is Byrnes, the 23rd guy on the roster or the 24th? Useful player, cheap, not going to have huge impact. Remember, our manager isn’t exactly Mr. Late Inning Strategy.
I’m assuming Byrnes is the 24th at this point. The others I would assume would be Hannahan and the back up Catcher. The next guy who would make the most sense to me would be Tui, that is if he could play a little outfield to go with his infielding, because then he would allow us to have that 7th pitcher in the pen if we needed it. A lot is definitely hinging on ST..can’t wait to see what happens. I’m glad we got Byrnes though, hope he regains his 07 form.
@Leroy Stanton
Feel free. But I think I was paraphrasing Earl Weaver, so probably best to give the credit to him.
Good point, I wish I would have mentioned him instead of Josh Wilson…
Just curious. I reread Dave’s article. What happened to SF? Did SF not offer?
Tui doesn’t really have to be able to play the outfield if Figgins can. Just move Figgins to left and play Tui at 3rd.
If Tui is doing well at AAA, you can release Byrnes. If Saunders is doing well at AAA, you can swap him with Langerhans. You could even start platooning Kotchman if both Tui and Byrnes are doing well (move Lopez to 1st against LHP and start Tui instead). Lots of flexibility.
@MUrbanCSN on Jan 28th
The #sfgiants’ door appears to have shut — or never even opened — on Eric Byrnes, too. So consider the G’s done with any real shopping
Liam–thanks.
We’ve got a left-handed DH who’s coming to camp “ripped” (or so I hear). Though I’m not sure how losing 7 pounds translates to ripped.
Regardless, I assume Griffey will DH against RHP at least half the time, if he’s healthy.
I think the part that gets dismissed in this is that Griffey had a .930 OPS at Safeco Field compared to a .584 on the road. Stats don’t usually work that way, especially at Safeco. But that’s too big of a swing for me to dismiss as an aberration when you can tell that Griffey’s a guy who is heavily motivated (as silly as this sounds) by the love of the game. I think he has more fun at Safeco and performs better there. I don’t care about his fun, but I care about his production. Depending on how these guys actually play, I’d plan on DHing Griffey at home more often than not and letting Bradley play a lot of OF.
It seems to me that one of the advantages of having a RH OF is having someone to pinchhit for Langerhans, Kotchman or Griffey against LHP late in games. If he is that bad at popouts, maybe he wouldn’t be a good option. Or does he popout less against LHP?
Maybe it’s too big of a swing for you, but it’s not too big a swing for statistics. It’s eminently dismissable.
See the conversation in this thread for Griffey’s home/road splits. It’s a small sample size and not a repeatable skill.
Ok, so I’m wondering who we’re going to get to be our 3 starter..if we go that route. There really aren’t many names that interest me a whole lot. I honestly would rather not see Washburn or Wang brought in..unless Washburn signs for super cheap. Maybe a trade? Thoughts?
Griffey had 199 PA at Safeco last year. That’s far short of the 500 or so that are necessary for us to have any faith in that OPS number. As Liam and Scraps have noted, we shouldn’t expect it to continue; in fact, it is precisely because that split is so extreme that we should dismiss it. While it’s quite possible he’ll put up another .735 overall OPS (since he managed a bit better than that with the Reds and White Sox over the past couple of years), it’s unlikely he will again do so by putting up .930 at home and .580 away. It’s sad, but he’s on a clear downward trend; “ripped” or not, he’s unlikely to get better (and, if something like his eyes start to betray him, he could fall off a cliff and be much, much worse).
I think we’ll improve our offense from 14th in runs scored to 13th for sure. Our fourth worst run differential (-52) should improve to close to even as well. Figgins, Bradley, Byrnes and Kotchman must have the rest of the AL shaking in their boots.
Some Mariner OPS by position last year:
3B: .643
SS: .597
LF: .609
DH: .747
You know, I do think Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Jack Wilson, Ryan Langerhans and Eric Byrnes are likely to improve on that, as a group.
I just had one of those moments where I realized that we have Cliff Lee pitching for us this year.
Still gives me tingles.
I think the part that gets dismissed in this is that Griffey had a .930 OPS at Safeco Field compared to a .584 on the road. Stats don’t usually work that way, especially at Safeco
But you’re ignoring his splits when he ate fish the night before vs. steak. Clearly red meat is the most important part of his game, and we need to focus on feeding him right.
did someone mention “terrific defensive ” platoon? who are the two? Byrnes if I recall plays the outfield like Mr. Burns from The Simpsons. Make me feel better, tell me that several years ago at this peak Byrnes was not horrible, as I remember him in the field.
We may not get anyone to be our 3 starter, we may just go with what we have. Or if we get someone from outside, he may not be our 3 starter. Right now, it would certainly be Ryan Rowland-Smith.
Bomberboy,
Check out his fangraphs page. His fielding has been average to above average.
In 2007, Byrnes was ranked in the top 3 best defensive leftfielders in Fielding Bible.
@WSM
Kotchman has almost no platoon split, so a right handed 1b makes no sense. Hannahan can play all the infield positions and is a natural 3b, so 2 of the things you feel we need, you haven’t actually looked at the roster to determine. In addition, Byrnes is likely your righty pinch hitter off the bench, either him or Bradley most days. Lopez can still play 1b, and probably 3b also. Griffey will be able to ph and has done well there, also.
@Arron
Saunders should not be brought in to platoon (that is the correct spelling). That would be a waste of a potential full time starter. If the idea is to platoon Saunders, it is better to leave him in Tacoma.
@micahjr
Others (maybe including the M’s) disagree with you.
Its pretty clear the M’s want someone else on their bench in Langerhans’s slot.
a. they’re not going with an 11-man pitching staff, not at first anyway. Standard 4 man bench.
b. Griffey and Milton are penciled in for all the PAs at DH/LF vs RHP. They ARE Wak’s starters.
c. Byrnes will be the LF vs LHP, but he wil also get the starts in LF vs RHP when Milton can’t go. He’s your 4th OF.
d. The M’s seem to see the need for a platoon 1B/DH as being greater than the need to have someone who can fill in defensively in LF with the correct platoon split vs. RHP. Oddly enough, they sacrificed defensive flexibility for a right-handed DH bench guy last year too. In fact, Mike Sweeney is still out there and would love to come back…
e. Langerhans is signed to a non-guaranteed contract because the M’s have no intention of guaranteeing him a spot on the roster.
All of this can, and probably will fall apart by May 1, but I’m pretty sure this is what Seattle is thinking right now.
And you know this why?
I don’t see why an 11-man bullpen wouldn’t work right out of the gate. The M’s are lousy with borderline #5 starters that will likely end up in the bullpen anyway, so they’ll have multiple bullpen guys who can work long relief.
Definitely going to make the team:
Felix
Lee
RR-S
Snell
Aardsma
Lowe
League
Kelley
(I’m assuming Sean White is still hurt)
Then, pick three from the 5th starter/long relief cluster: Fister, Olson, Texeira, French, Vargas, Petit.
All those guys, even Texeira I believe, can give you some innings. Also, at the beginning of the year, I’ve definitely heard of teams going without using their 5th starter for weeks, so that essentially gives you a 7th bullpen arm.
On a roster that didn’t have either Milton Bradley or Eric Byrnes at the time, Jack Z basically told Ryan Langerhans he would not guarantee him a $750k salary by non-tendering him.
750k is nothing. A good 4th outfielder makes more than that (Randy Winn, Xavier Nady, etc.).
Instead, Langerhans agreed to a split contract that allows the Mariners to send him to AAA (and pay him a lot less). These are the kinds of contracts that you give to guys who don’t fit on the 25 man roster but you still want to keep them around anyway. Its very similar to the deal Chris Coste got from the Mets to maybe be their backup catcher, or maybe not.
Now after adding Milton Bradley and Eric Byrnes we’re expected to believe Langerhans is a semi-regular platoon LF? That makes no sense at all.
Oh, and the assisstant GM said they want someone who’s right-handed and plays 1B.
wsm, you hit the nail on the head. I don’t know why everyone here thinks that Griffey is going to be a hood ornament this year. Spring Training will let Langerhans and Byrnes fight it out for 4th OF. It’s redundant to keep them both.
While everyone should be trying to figure out who the next M’s signing is going to be, they are waffling about how excited they are going to be with Milton at DH.
Jack said he was looking at some right handed bats last week. He said nothing about a trade, like Cameron stated in the last write up. I wouldn’t be suprised if the right handed 1B/DH bat was Mike Sweeney. Is that what I am hoping for? No. Just wouldn’t be suprised. I’m hoping for Dye.
wsm, see Dave’s more recent blog entry.